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Monetary Policy  |  Geopolitics  |  Indian Economy    Dear RBI: The Market Has Already Priced In the End of This War. Have You? Brent is a seesaw, not a structural breakout. Goldman sees $67–83 WTI by Q4. The RBI's own inflation forecasts may be obsolete before the ink is dry. The case for growth-first just got much stronger. By Sumon Mukhopadhyay There is something almost admirable about the art of being confidently wrong in slow motion. The original draft of this very article — written a few days ago — described Brent crude as "cooling," called the Strait of Hormuz situation one of easing geopolitical risk, and suggested that oil prices were retreating toward more comfortable territory. It was, in the immortal tradition of macro commentary, fighting the last battle. The reality, as of this writing, is considerably more interesting...
Bourses likely to track 10k-mark
I am likely to announce some discounts to the 6 (six) month old SumanSpeaks Members (Free Group) in my Paid Service for a brief Period of 15 (fifteen)--20 (twenty) days. The discounts will be available for both the Premium and Quickie Groups. This is in line with my principle of rewarding my ardent followers, time to time, who stays with me/provides me the requisite support, during the dark days in Dalal Street.
Hence rush in to enlist your name till the quota is not filled up. Moreover those who have Portfolios of more than Rs.5 lakhs (Indian) can contact me for the Portfolio Management Service (PMS). The Overseas clients who have portfolio size of more than Rs.15 lakhs can contact me for the PMS.
I have made arrangements for very few seats in the PMS, over the existing ones, due to repeated requests from the investors. Here also you will get some discounts over existing rates and this is open to all.
The applications for both the services should reach, by 20th November, 2008. The applications received after the requisite date will be summarily rejected.
The Portfolios not having the requisite size or is below the above mentioned amounts will not be accepted for PMS, for the moment.
MUMBAI: Bulls expect Diwali fireworks to continue on Dalal Street next week enthused by steps taken by RBI this weekend to infuse fresh liquidity into the system and expectations of further steps from the government after Prime Minister's meeting with industry captains on Monday.
The market benchmark Sensex has gained by more than 1,250 points in the past three consecutive sessions, beginning with the one-hour muhurat trade on the day of Diwali last week.
The three-day rally wiped off more than half of the loss suffered by the Sensex in the preceding four trading sessions, when the index had lost more than 2,000 points and had also slipped below the psychological 10,000-point mark.
Expecting that RBI's latest step to infuse an estimated Rs 85,000 crore into the system through short-term lending and mandatory rates as well as the statutory cash requirements for the banks would boost investors' confidence, analysts believe that the 10,000 level could be regained next week.
Besides, they expect a further boost for the market if something positive comes out of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's meeting with the corporate leaders on Monday to tackle uncertainties related to the global financial crisis.
In addition, Finance Minister P Chidambaram is also meeting heads of public sectors banks and financial institutions on Tuesday to review their performance for the second quarter and discuss ways to manage the impact of the global slowdown.
"Measures taken by RBI would ease liquidity problems in the system. The measures would act as a confidence booster and the next week is likely to be positive for the market," brokerage firm SMC Global Vice president Rajesh Jain said. Asserting that markets have seen their worst, he said that global cues are also positive, in addition to positive developments back home.
Taurus Mutual Fund director RK Gupta said, "Markets would bounce back as the government has taken slew of measures. Metal, Bankex and Capital Goods sector is likely to remain in positive zone tomorrow."
The Reserve Bank of India, on Saturday, slashed the Cash Reserve Ratio by one per cent and the repo rate by 50 basis points, the move would infuse over Rs 85,000 crore in to the system-- which is coming on top of an estimated Rs 1,85,000 crore pumped into the system through its previous measures taken over the past month.
Besides, the government has also announced duty cuts for sectors like steel and aviation, while oil marketing companies have slashed the jet fuel prices.
Besides, the continuing dip in inflation for past five weeks is also being seen as another positive factor.
"Although most of the measures taken by the RBI are discounted by the market but the sentiments are likely to be positive. If any key indices do not break any lows this week, some amount of consolidation may come in the following week," Bonanza Portfolio President Research P K Agarwal said.
Last week, Indian bourses bounced back, closely mirroring their global counterparts, which rallied after central banks across the globe cut interest rate to tackle financial crisis.
The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 1,086.99 points or 12.49 per cent to settle at 9,788.06, while the wide-based Nifty rose 301.6 points to 2,885.60 on Friday last week.
Global markets had rallied after the US cut its benchmark rate to one per cent on Wednesday to stave off the credit crunch, while rates have been slashed in Japan, China, Taiwan and Hong Kong as well. [With inputs from the internet]

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