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#The key domestic benchmarks snapped two-day

Photo: Zee Business 

rising streak amid negative global cues and closed in the red. 

Shares of banks and metal companies were at the receiving end of selling pressure. 

The BSE S&P Sensex crashed 458.07 points or 1.10% to 41,155.12, while the Nifty50 index lost 129.25 points or 1.06% to close at 12,119. However, the broader market was better placed. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell a mere 0.40% while the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.03%. Hence,  amidst all these Hullabollo of about the fast-spreading coronavirus, which started in the China's Wuhan city, you have known where the butter has been kept -- you only need an expert hand to pick up from that place, isn't?.

Apart from the coronavirus scare the traders also turned cautious ahead of the Union Budget on Saturday, after a news report appeared in ET,  stating: "If the budget is convincing, the markers could come crashing down".
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 429 points, or 1.5%. The 30-stock average was down more than 500 points earlier in the day. The S&P 500 dropped 1.4% while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.8%.
In this connection I would like to say that, while first case that a few cases of coronavirus would affect Chinese economy and in the turn the world economy is purely Hilarious. China has a population of around 1.50 billion plus. It is a mere stupidity to believe that a few thousand deaths will be able to pull down the levers of world economy.
Moreover, 2nd point due to which Indian Benchmark indices is purely speculative. And Indian markets have come down mostly after budget -- and it is nothing new. The market known that Nirmala Sitaraman has very little maneuverability, in the current set of conditions governing Indian economy.  Accordingly, it has been discounted.
Therefore,  I feel not only the US markets will improve at the end of the day, Asia will go green today (28 January). 

#The scrip of P C Jewelers Ltd (Rs. 23.05) was

recommended at around Rs.23.30/23.50 yesterday, for short term targets of Rs.31/32.
According to a report published in the Business Standard, on 14 January,  2020, Union commerce ministry has sought a reduction in the import duty on gold in the ensuing Union Budget, with a view to pushing manufacturing and export of the gems and jewellery sector.

In last year’s Budget, the NDA government raised the tariff on gold to 12.50% from 10% earlier. Since then, the global price of gold has risen nearly 20%, magnifying the rise in customs duty. The, Jewellery retailers and exporters have urged the tariff be cut and also the goods and services tax (GST) on jewellery certification.
The gems and jewellery sector has been on the receiving end due to fall in the far out depressing the rural sector, apart from the price rise of gold and duty hike, to stem the BoP.
With the current account deficit situation under control at 1.50% (of gross domestic product) for April-September 2019, we can expect some booster doses coming for the sector from the FMO,  including a duty cut both for gold and  rough diamonds. The Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council has urged the government to cut import duty on rough diamonds 2.50% from existing 7.50%. Moreover,  the GST on diamond certification might be cut to 5% from the current, 18%. Therefore,  I suddenly see lot of positive for the sector just before the Union Budget. It employs over 4.64 million workers and is expected to employ 8.23 million by 2022. P C Jeweller engages in the manufacture, export, wholesale and retail of gold and diamond jewelry in India.

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#National Fertiliser Ltd recommended at

Rs.27.10 today made a high of Rs.31.40 today and is now trading at Rs.30.75. Traders are suggested to hold with a SL at Rs.29.70.

#The stock of Radio City (Music Broadcast)  today made a high of Rs.29.90 and is now seen at Rs.28.80. The non risk taking investors are suggested to book some Profits.

#Buy the scrip of Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) at around  Rs.44.50, T: Rs.48/52, SL: Rs.43.50. At the end of October, 2019, there were media reports that the rokerage firm CLSA upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Sell' owing to the benefits that the company could reap due to government's stake sale.

BHEL is one of India’s largest engineering and manufacturing enterprises in the energy and infrastructure sectors and a leading power equipment manufacturer globally. BHEL serves the core sectors of the economy and provides a comprehensive portfolio of products, systems and services to customers in power, transmission, transportation, renewables, water, defence & aerospace, oil & gas, and industry.

#Exit the shares of Reliance Capital Ltd (9.50) and Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.21.20). Both of them could go for further correction after last week's NPA news.

#Buy the shares of P C Jewelers Ltd at around Rs.23.20/23.30, for short term targets of Rs. 31/32.
India is considering signing a bilateral agreement with Russia to reduce import duties on processed diamonds and jewelry, according to the chairman of the country’s Gem & Jewelry Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), Sanjay Shah. India imports rough diamonds from Russia worth around $3.5 billion.  If the duties are reduced or zeroed, trade between India and Russia will flourish. The two countries have been developing cooperation in the diamond industry in recent years, with Russia’s Alrosa and India’s GJEPC considering preferential tax treatment for diamond trading.
India is the world’s largest diamond cutting and polishing center.

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#Yesterday's recommendation Jindal Steel and

Power Ltd at around Rs.180.50, today touched Rs. 186.35 intraday. The targets are intact, however if you wish to book some profits you can do and hold the rest with a SL at Rs. 177. Photo: Dare2cpete.com.

#The stock Reliance Capital Ltd (Rs.9.90) is testing the intermediate lows made some time back and is consolidating around the current ranges.  This is a high risk high gain stock. Today also the trading volume is huge (82 lakhs).  Since,  the company is taking measures to reduce the debt,  we can look for higher prices in the coming days. Anil Ambani had been trying to reduce the debt of the company through all possible techniques. If you remember in April last year he approached elder brother Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries and Piramal Group, offering 49% in the business.
The downside of the scrip is limited while considering its book value of Rs.300 - plus and the backing of his mother (Kokilaben Patel Ambani)
the upper targets are huge. Accumulate during intraday dips.

#The scrip of National Fertilisers Ltd today touched Rs.29.50, intraday.  Those who have not booked partial profits, should do the same and hold the rest with 5% trailing SL. 

#The share of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (Ro. 22.20) today hit the upper circuits in the morning trade, but is currently out of it. This is a well managed company and have far better fundamentals than Reliance  Capital Ltd (Rs..9.90). You should look to accumulate during market dips.

#The Nifty is now trading at 12,225.20 up 44.85 points (+0.37%). The pre budget rally should continue and slowly this positive mention is likely to spread in the broader market. Accumulate good small and mid cap stocks.

#The share of Cadila Healthcare Ltd made a high of Rs.274.20. You should book profits and exit the counter.

#The scrip of Music Broadcast Ltd (Radio City; CMP: Rs.27.55) today touched an intraday high of Rs.28.40. The scrip was recommended around Rs.27.50 and then asked to accumulate.  You can either wait for 27 January,  board meeting of the company or book profits and exit the counter. 

Reliance Capital Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.10.25

Target: Rs.17/19

Company Overview:

Reliance Capital Ltd (RCL) is one of India`s leading

and amongst most valuable financial services companies in the private sector.
RCL in the initial years engaged in steady annuity yielding businesses such as leasing, bill discounting, and inter-corporate deposits. 

Later thhe company diversified their business in the areas of portfolio investment, lending against securities, custodial services, money market operations, project finance advisory services, and investment banking.

Presently the company is engaged in businesses like asset management, mutual funds, life and general insurance, private equity and proprietary investments, stock broking, depository services, distribution of financial products, consumer finance and other activities in the financial services space.
The company operates through the following divisions Reliance Mutual Fund, Reliance Life Insurance Company Limited, Reliance Commercial Finance, Reliance Securities & Reliance Money.

Oher businesses of the company includes - Reliance Spot Exchange, Quant Capital, Reliance Equity Advisors, Reliance Asset Reconstruction Company & Reliance Venture Asset Management (Source: Moneycontrol.com).

Triggers:
#The current market cap of the company is only

Rs.260.29 crore against H1FY20 earning of Rs.811 crore.

#The Book value of the shares of Reliance Capital is Rs. 350.63 against the CMP of Rs.10.25.

#Anil Ambani, recently vowed to do more, to streamline the group’s overall operations, including exiting the lending business under Reliance Capital and repaying another ₹15,000 crore of the group’s debt by March 2020.

#The two lending businesses — Reliance Commercial Finance (RCF) and Reliance Home Finance (RHF) — have an asset base of over ₹25,000 crore.

#Anil Ambani further said: The Reliance Group has repaid over ₹35,000 crore in the 14 months till May 2019 and will be paying another ₹15,000 crore till March 2020, aggregating to over ₹50,000 crore through monetisation and cash flows to lenders.

#Anil Ambani controlled ADA Group has over ₹60,000 crore receivables stuck in regulatory and arbitration matters; which are pending since as much as 5 - 10 years.
This is almost twice the group's debt ($5 billion)  as of September,  2019.

#The entire Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management (RNAM). stake monetisation proceeds of around Rs.6,000 crore to be received through stake sale via offer for sale and transaction with Nippon Life Insurance of Japan will be utilised to reduce Reliance Capital’s outstanding debt.
Based on the above facts, and other asset monetisation deals currently underway, Reliance Capital hopes to reduce debt by at least Rs.12,000 crore (US$ 1.7 billion), or 70%, in the current fiscal.

#As of March 2018, the Reliance Group companies had a total debt of over Rs.1.7 lakh crore which reduced to Rs.93,900 crore in July 2019, excluding Reliance Communications, after the sale of major assets and businesses. Therefore, the things have started to look more brighter for the ADA Group.

#In December,  201, there were media reports that a UK High Court dismissed an application for summary judgment by Chinese banks for a $680 million claim against Anil Ambani. The court, however, has asked Ambani's legal team to submit further evidence in his defence and prove that the claim by Chinese lenders holds no merit.

#Global distressed asset buyers are picking up Reliance Capital’s junkrated debt securities following an assurance by its home finance unit that 98% of retail debenture holders will get their money back, dealers said. Reliance Capital bonds worth ₹565 crore changed hands in the secondary market in seven transactions.

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#Music Broadcast  (Radio City) Ltd moved to Rs. 28.30, intraday. Book part profit and hold with a SL: Rs.27.60.

#Buy Jindal Steel and Power Ltd at around

Photo: UIhere

Rs.180.50, for short term targets of Rs.192/197, SL: Rs.177.
The company's domestic production of crude steel and related products for the quarter ended Dec. 31 stood at 1.61 million tonne, up 22% from the year ago period. The scrip is trading above its 50D, 100D, 200D, Exponential moving averages,  indicating a Bullish Trend.

#Now the Indian markets are trading in the Green. Sensex is at 41,224.46, up 109.08 points  (+0.27%); while the Nifty is seen at 12,137.50 up 30.60 points (+0.25%). Last time,  I checked,  I saw SGX Nifty was also up by 20 points. With Asian Markets trading mixed and NASDAQ up marginally,  we can expect the pre budget RALLY to gather steam as the day progressed.

#Strides Pharma Science Ltd today touched Rs.415. Book some profits and hold the rest with a SL at Rs.407.

#Buy the shares of Reliance Capital Ltd at around Rs.10.35/10.40 for short term targets of Rs.17/19. SL: Rs.9.
The two ADA Group (Anil Ambani) group shares Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.21.45) and Reliance Power Ltd (Rs.2.20) is on the upper circuits.  Hence, this scrip can't remain in isolation.
Meanwhile,  Global distressed asset buyers are picking up Reliance Capital’s junkrated debt securities following an assurance by its home finance unit that 98% of retail debenture holders will get their money back, dealers said. Reliance Capital bonds worth ₹565 crore changed hands in the secondary market in seven transactions at 70% discount this week.

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#Around 12.48 pm, the BSE Sensex was trading at

41,217.99 down 111.09 points (-0.26%), while the Nifty was seen at 12,130.35 down 37.25 points (-0.32%). However, most of the Asian Markets are trading in the green -- we can't remain in isolation. Hence, I'm expecting the markets to close in the green today. 

#Strides Pharma Science Ltd (Rs.396 90), todayCorona Virus  has killed 9 in China so far. This bit of information though raises concern of the outbreak of an epidemic, depressing consumer sentiment and spending, affecting the tourism as well as travel and transport related business; but is positive for all the parma companies, who are into manufacturing and selling of anti Virals/Bacterials. Keep accumulating during market dips.

Photo: Moneycontrol.com

made an intraday high of Rs.399.40 in the NSE There is news that

#The stock of Music Broadcast Ltd (Radio City; CMP: Rs.27), is consolidating around the current current ranges, ahead of its board meeting on 27 January,  when it is scheduled to discuss on the Bonus Issue. A company normally declares bonus bonanza,  when it is confident of its future growth momentum.  It is from the reputed Jagaran Prakashan group.

To be precise, it is a subsidiary of Jagran Prakashan Ltd. Being the first FM radio broadcaster in India and with over 17 years of expertise in the radio industry, Radio City has consistently been the number one radio station in Bengaluru and Mumbai with 24.5% and 15.7% average listenership share respectively.

Music Broadcast Limited currently has 39 stations across 12 states, comprising 62% of the country’s FM population. Radio City reaches out to over 69 million listeners in 34 cities covered by AZ Research 2019 (Source: AZ Research Report). The network provides terrestrial programming along with 18 other web-stations, through its digital interface, www.radiocity.in.

Radio City has spearheaded the evolution of FM radio by offering content that is unique, path-breaking and invokes city passion amongst listeners with its brand philosophy of “Rag Rag Mein Daude City”. The network introduced humour and the concept of agony aunt on radio with Babber Sher and Love Guru respectively. It also initiated Radio City Freedom Awards, a platform to recognize independent music and provided a launch pad to budding singers with Radio City Super Singer, the first singing talent hunt on radio.

Radio City bagged 73 awards across national and international platforms like Golden Mikes, India Radio Forum, New York awards, ACEF awards etc. in 2018-2019. Radio City has consistently featured for the 7th time in ‘India’s Best Companies to Work For’ study conducted by Great Place to Work Institute. In 2019, Radio City ranked 6th in ‘Best Large Workplaces in Asia’, according to the GPTW survey. Radio City has also been recognized in ‘India’s Best Workplaces for Women – 2019’ and has ranked amongst the Top 75 organizations on the list.
Moreover, with a P/E of 12.06, against the Industry P/E of 19.13, we can look forward for targets of Rs.39/40 in the coming days.

#Buy Cadila Healthcare Ltd at the CMP of Rs.271.55, for short term targets of Rs.295/297, SL: Rs.267. The Corona Virus attack in China is giving  speculative moves in the shares of select parma companies. 

National Fertilizers Ltd: Buy 
CMP: Rs.28.80
Targets: Rs.37/41

The Ramagundam Fertilisers Ltd (FCL) is a joint venture with National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) holding 26% equity, Engineers India limited 26%, Fertilizer Corporation of India Limited 11%, government of Telangana 11 %, GAIL India limited 14.3 % and HTAS Consortium holding 11.7 % equity.

NFL is reviving a closed urea plant at Ramagundam in a JV with EIL, FCIL and the state government at an estimated cost of Rs.5,920 crore.

The plant is likely to get operational by 31st March,  2020. 

Photo: Financial Express 

Against Rs.5920 crore of investment by the entities,  maket cap of the National Fertilisers Ltd is only 1415.32 crore. This throws up a lot of space for rerating of the company's shares. 

Since,  stock maket reacts in advance, we could see a sharp rise in the share price of NFL before the budget (and before the start of production I'm Ramagundam plant) which is tentative on 1 February,  2020. 

National Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.28.80) is the second largest manufacturer of urea in India with a share of over 16% of the total domestic capacity and 13% market share, stable cash flow from urea operations, increasing contribution from industrial products & traded goods, the large sovereign ownership and management strength resulting in strong financial flexibility, as reflected by the company's proven ability to raise funds at competitive rates.

Besides, almost the entire debt of the company is backed by receivables from the Government of India leads to low risks from the credit perspective.

NFL has a leading market position in markets in northern and central India due to proximity of plants to key markets and healthy operating efficiency of the plants post the feedstock conversion program undertaken in FY2013, with healthy capacity utilisation levels and energy efficiency vis-a-vis the pre- set norms.

While gas pooling has rationalised gas prices, the New Urea Policy 2015 has incentivised production beyond  re-assessed capacity thereby aiding the margins of the company. 

NFL has also scaled up its portfolio of traded fertilizer mainly di-ammonium  phosphate (DAP), Muriate of Potash (MOP), bentonite sulphur along with industrial products like nitric acid, ammonium nitrate, sodium Nitrate/ Nitrite etc.

Meanwhile,  the NDA government at the centre has launched eNAM — an online trading platform, to optimize the use of fertilizers by distribution of Soil Health Cards to farmers

It is pertinent to mention here that, fertilizer subsidy allocation has jumped from Rs.70,090 crore to Rs.79,996 crore or a rise of around Rs.10,000 crore in the last budget (FY20). This year it was expected to be around Rs.1 lakh crore. 

--- ICRA and the ET (Edited).....

Fertiliser  Subsidy Backlog is likely to get reduced in CY20

Of the total budgetary allocation (Rs. 800 billion in the Union Budget for FY2019-20), GoI had released nearly 84% by the end of October 2019.

Nirmala Sitaraman GoI needs to increase the budgetary allocation in the upcoming Union Budget for FY2020-21 to around Rs.100 billion in order to reduce the subsidy backlog.

The total requirement of the fertiliser subsduy which stands at around ~Rs. 1250 billion.

The increased budgetary allocation if continued for a couple of years will wipe out the subsidy backlog and pave the way for implementation of the true form of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) in the fertiliser sector.

The outlook for fertiliser sales in the current rabi season remains healthy with DAP/NPK offtake expected to grow at a robust pace as there has been significant moderation in the retail prices Y-o-Y driven by a fall in the raw material prices. Urea demand is expected to remain stable as the offtake by farmers remain more or less uniform , given fixed and low retail price.

----- Indiainfoline (Edited). 

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#The BSE Sensex is now seen at 41,425.75 or

Photo: Seeking Alpha 

down just 99.75  points (-0.25%) while NSE's Nifty is trading at 12,196.55 or down only 25.40 points (-0.23%). This is much improvement from the level when the Sensex nosedived 200 - points. 

Market sentiment was affected by the fact that  International Monetary Fund (IMF) loweried India's growth forecast, apart from subdued quarterly results by key index constituents and negative global cues.

However,  what the market missed is that IMF on 20 January also said global growth, estimated at 2.9% in 2019, is projected to increase to 3.3% in 2020 and inch up further to 3.4% in 2021 -- which means growth would continue though a tad below the estimates. This is positive for the BULLS. 

For India too,  the outlook looks much better in CY2020 than for FY20, as per the IMF commentary, which said: India's growth is estimated at 4.8% in 2019, projected to improve to 5.8% in 2020 and 6.5% in 2021 (1.2% and 0.9% lower than the October forecast), supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus as well as subdued oil prices. 

Therefore, I feel the investors should use every opportunity to buy good stocks in situations like today,  to reap superb benefits in the short to medium term.

#Buy the shares of Strides Parma Science Ltd at the CMP of Rs.390.40, for short term targets of Rs. 415/417. SL: Rs.382.
The company recently announced successful closure of the US drug regulator's inspection at its manufacturing site in Florida, United States.

Advantage Fertilizer Companies:

With better acreage in Rabi 2019-20 and strong

input consumption, the analysts expect domestic agrochemical and fertiliser companies to benefit.

Analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services expect agri input companies to deliver robust revenue growth in Q3FY20 on higher rabi sowing (7% Y-oY) and higher water availability (reservoir levels +52%/+41% above last year/10-year average) in the wake of good rainfall and a low base from last year.

The brokerage firm expects fertilizer companies to come out with strong growth, driven by higher rabi sowing, and improved profitability due to falling raw material prices.

According to Motilal Oswal Securities: the consumption of agrochemicals moderated in Kharif, but the outlook for Rabi remains encouraging. Therefore, the brokerage firm expects a strong 2HFY20 (off a low base in 2HFY19) for domestic fertilizer and agrochemical sector.

Also,  the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) of subsidies,  which the NDA government is considering at the moment, will be Positive for the Fertiliser Companies/Industry.

Last year, the government had introduced a system of giving out the fertilizer subsidy to manufacturers only after they furnished receipts of actual sales to farmers registered on point-of-sale (PoS) machines. Now the government will use the direct benefit transfer (DBT) mode to transfer the subsidy amount through e-wallets.

The Centre has budgeted ₹79,996 crore for the current financial year, towards giving out fertilizer subsidy, which includes urea and nutrient-based subsidy. In 2018-19, the subsidy outgo was ₹70,085 crore and in 2017-18 it was ₹66,467 crore.


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)-backed National Payments Corp. of India (NPCI) is currently working on the facility of creating the e-wallet

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#The Indian market soared to new high in the

Photo: Moneycontrol.com

week ended January 17 as the BSE Sensex climbed Mount 42,000 for the first time. Optimism over the upcoming Budget on February 1 and the ongoing Q3FY20 earnings season helped bulls maintain their sway on the Dalal Street.

The BSE Sensex is now trading 41,770.01 down 73.19 points (-0.42%) while the Nifty is seen at 12,293.70 down 55.90 points (-0.47%), after kissing record high. This is a normal correction in the large cap space, after touching new levels.  However,  it is interesting to note that the rally finally seems to be getting broad-based as Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices managed to outperform the frontliners -- both indices eked out  4% gains in the week gone by, compared to the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 which gained 0.80% each. 

Hence,  my suggestions would be to use the dips in the market, to enter good small and mid cap counters. I don't foresee a too deep fall in the indices before the Budget on 1 February. 

#The scrip of Wockhardt Ltd (Rs. 286) hit my 4th and 5th targets of Rs192 and Rs.196 respectively, as the scrip made an intraday high of Rs.297.90. The traders are suggested to book complete profits and wait for the dips to enter. 

#The stock of United Bank of India Ltd (Rs. 9.10) today touched Rs.9.30. The traders should do well to accumulate the scrip in intraday dips.

#Meanwhile, Food Price Inflation surged to 14%, led by vegetables (60%), pulses (15%), meat and fish (9.6%), and eggs (8.8%).
At the same time, core inflation has stayed low, ruling out any possibility of a short time demand recovery. Now,  though vegetable prices may stabilize in due course of time, if driven by seasonal factors, that may not be the case for cereals and pulses.
Inflation rates in cereals and pulses have seen a consistent rise in the past six months. They together have a larger weight than vegetables, in the index and the rise in their prices is unlikely to be a result of seasonal factors. Some of it may be due to the transmission of global food prices, which have been showing a rising trend in the last half year; though a bulk of the blame lies with government policy. In pulses, untimely imports flooded the markets and contributed to lower price realization last year, further leading to lower production this year.
In a significant development, the petroleum and natural gas ministry has begun interministerial consultations on its proposal to end the power sector's priority access to cheap domestic gas, setting up a gas trading platform and hiving off GAIL's pipeline business into a subsidiary. It will send the proposals to the Cabinet after the consultation process, which is expected to take a few weeks, said officials.
The ministry has proposed to permit use of cheaper domestic gas by just fertilizer makers, city gas distributors and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) makers, they said.

Also,  the cut in fertilizer prices by the NDA government is likely to perk up the top and bottom lines of fertiliser companies.

The revised domestic natural gas prices as per the New Domestic Gas Policy 2014 will remain operational from October 1, 2019 till March 31, 2020.

Therefore, my assessment is that the sticky Food inflation is not going anywhere in a hurry -- this gives ample ammunition to the investors to  hunt for good Agri - based shares. 
On the last Friday,  the percentage of deliverable quantity to the traded quantity for the shares of National Fertilisers Ltd, remained a whooping 72.54%, indicating that lot of accumulation is taking place ahead of budget. 

-:Performance Chart of the last 2 months:-

• SAIL from Rs.37 to Rs.51 plus.
• Wockhardt Ltd from Rs.237 to Rs. 286 plus. 

• 63 Moons Technologies from Rs.101 to Rs.125

  

  Photo: Emptrack

  plus. 
• National Fertilisers Ltd from Rs.27.10 to Rs.32.40.
• Central Bank from Rs.17.50 to Rs. 26 plus. 
• Future Consumers Ltd from Rs.21/22 to Rs.26 plus. 
• United Bank of India from Rs.8.80 to Rs. 9.80.
• Texmaco Rail and Engineering Ltd from Rs.29.50/34 to Rs. 42 plus.
• Graphite India Ltd from Rs.112 to Rs.124 plus  and so on...

You can join my profit sharing scheme or my premium information services (including Life Time Service) and stay ahead of others. For more details you can mail me at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com.

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Photo: Slide Share

#An Ahmedabad based financial weekly has given a buy on Music Broadcast Ltd (Rs.26.50), a Jagran Prakashan Group company.  

With 10 titles across 13 states in 5 different languages and a total readership of 68 mn, Jagran is the largest print media group of the country.

Radio City 91.1 FM (Music Broadcast Ltd)  is a subsidiary of Jagran Prakashan Ltd. Radio City 91.1 FM - India's first & leading FM brand has been synonymous with the category since its inception in 2001. We can look for targets of the share price of Music Broadcast as Rs.37/39 by 27 January,  when the company's. Last week the media sector rose by 7% with TV8 Network climbing 24%. On last Friday in the BSE, the Percentage of Deliverable Quantity to Traded Quantity is a whooping 89.67%.

#There was news in Live Mint on 15 January,  that the government of India planning to expand the ETF portfolio by including stocks of PSBs, public sector insurance firms and public sector financial institutions. The current fiscal target is ₹1.05 trillion which was upgraded from ₹90,000 crore initially estimated.
The disinvestment department is learnt to have drawn up a list of relatively better performing CPSEs including bluechips like Nalco, NMDC, NTPC, and Coal India to go for offer for sale (OFS). National Aluminium Co Ltd, Coal India Ltd, NTPC Ltd, NMDC Ltd, NBCC (India) Ltd, Bharat Electronics Ltd, National Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.29.60) and Hindustan Copper Ltd, are on the list of probables for OFS.
It is pertinent to mention here that National Fertilizer Limited (NFL) had given a dividend of Rs.28.22 crore to union government for 2018-19 in respect of shares held by it. It is noteworthy that NFL has presented a cumulative dividend of Rs.1156.97 crore to the government till date against paid up equity of Rs.490.58 crore.

Abundant rain and high reservoir levels have created favourable conditions for the winter or rabi crop season, reviving demand for farm inputs such as agrochemicals and fertilizers.

As of last week, reservoirs were 82% full—the best reading in recent years. More than half of the 120 important reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission have water levels exceeding 80% of their storage capacity. This is brightening the outlook for winter crops, which are mostly river fed. Data from the agriculture ministry showed that crop sowing is 6.4% more than the year-ago levels.

The sales growth is aided by a favourable base and delay in summer crop (kharif) season. 
Channel checks by Antique Stock Broking Ltd showed a 15-20% year-on-year growth in sales for most agrochemical companies in October-November this year. Fertilizer industry sales volume is also up 20% during the period with key crop nutrients such as urea and DAP (diammonium phosphate) seeing good growth, data compiled by IIFL Securities Ltd show.
A prolonged summer crop this year has also pushed sales of some agrochemicals and fertilizers to October. Even then, there is no denying that farmers are more optimistic about the current crop season.
As the budget date is approaching,  we could soon witness, the beginning of a more pronounced rally in the fertilizer counters. 

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#Yesterday's BTST scrip of Graphite India Ltd

reached the first target of Rs.320, as it made an intraday high of Rs.324.80. You can book some profits and hold the rest with the SL mentioned earlier. 

#Buy the shares of Music Broadcast Ltd (Radio City) at around Rs.27.50, for short term targets of Rs.37/39. There is a Bonus issue news in the counter. Music Broadcast has net cash of ₹2.33b (Rs.233 Cr). This is fairly high as compared to its current market capitalization.
Actually, Music Broadcast had debt of ₹156.3 million at the end of March 2019, a reduction from ₹499.10 million over a year. But on the other hand it also has ₹2.49 billion  in cash, leading to a ₹2.33 billion net cash position.
Jagran Prakashan Ltd (a great dividend yield stock; CMP: Rs.67.85) publishes the country's largest circulated newspaper, Dainik Jagran. It also owns Mid-day and Radio City.

About Radio City

Radio City, a part of Music Broadcast Limited (MBL) is a subsidiary of Jagran Prakashan Ltd. Being the first FM radio broadcaster in India and with over 17 years of expertise in the radio industry, Radio City has consistently been the number one radio station in Bengaluru and Mumbai with 24.5- and 15.7- average listenership share respectively. (Source: RAM Data,TG: 12+ Period: Week 1, 2013 to Week 21, 2019). Radio City Delhi ranks #2 with 13.4- average listenership share (Source: RAM Data, TG: 12+ Period: Week 1, 2019 to Week 21, 2019).

Music Broadcast Limited currently has 39 stations across 12 states, comprising 62- of the country’s FM population. Radio City reaches out to over 69 million listeners in 34 cities covered by AZ Research 2019 (Source: AZ Research Report). The network provides terrestrial programming along with 18 other web-stations, through its digital interface, www.radiocity.in. 

Radio City has spearheaded the evolution of FM radio by offering content that is unique, path-breaking and invokes city passion amongst listeners with its brand philosophy of “Rag Rag Mein Daude City”. The network introduced humour and the concept of agony aunt on radio with Babber Sher and Love Guru respectively. It also initiated Radio City Freedom Awards, a platform to recognize independent music and provided a launch pad to budding singers with Radio City Super Singer, the first singing talent hunt on radio.

Radio City bagged 73 awards across national and international platforms like Golden Mikes, India Radio Forum, New York awards, ACEF awards etc. in 2018-2019. Radio City has consistently featured for the 7th time in ‘India’s Best Companies to Work For’ study conducted by Great Place to Work Institute. In 2019, Radio City ranked 6th in ‘Best Large Workplaces in Asia’, according to the GPTW survey.

Radio players are making the most of their content offerings and brand loyalty. For instance, Radio City’s digital arm produces both short and long-form videos in genres such as Bollywood, comedy, human interest stories, drama and food. It has 18 web radio stations and over 5,000 podcasts across language.

#The Wockhardt Ltd (Rs.282) should now look for targets of Rs.292/296. SL: Rs.271.

#The BSE Sensex is now trading at 41,920.36 down 0.03 points (-0.03%) while the Nifty is seen at 12,340.45 down 8.45 points (-0.12%). I feel while the the indices are likely to consolidate around the current ranges,  the action would be more pronounced in the mid and small cap space: as the budget date approaches.
Buy good pedigree mid and small caps, whigh has a story  to tell.  

Tit - bits

#The scrip of Graphite India Ltd  (Rs.313.50) was

recommended yesterday in this blog as a BTST call. However, the short term traders can also,  play on it,  with targets of Rs.372/379.  

The stock fell from a high of Rs.1100 plus made during 2018 - 19 period; after the government of India removed the anti dumping duty  on cheap Chinese graphite imports. 

It is pertinent to mention here that the levy of anti-dumping duty and strong demand has pushed up domestic graphite electrode prices by over five times in the last three years to $15,000 a tonne, from $2,350 a tonne in June 2015. The rise in graphite prices has pushed up steel making cost by about ₹1,500-1,700 per tonne.

However, Ravi Jhunjhunwala, Chairman and Managing Director, HEG, one of the largest graphite manufacturers in India, said aroud a couple of months back that the graphite prices are going up due to strong demand and not due to short-supply. 

It is interesting to note that the rise in graphite prices have raised the steel making cost by only 6% from 2% and is surprising that steel companies are not targeting the rise in cost of other raw materials. Therefore,  there are chances of imposing anti dumping duty again on cheap Chinese imports, in the ensuring Budget, to protect the domestic graphite producers.

Graphite exports from India, which accounts for 24% of global supply, are expected to touch ₹9,000 crore this year compared to ₹1,800 crore.

Moreover, the shifting of 60 million tonne steel production from blast furnace to electric arc furnace post shutdown of pollutant blast furnaces in China has pushed up demand for graphite across the globe. Graphite electrodes are used in steel making as a heating element. Every tonne of steel produced through electric arc furnace requires about 2 kg of graphite electrodes. Graphite electrodes production is dominated by only two companies Graphites India and HEG Ltd. Hence, we can look for doubling of the share price of Graphite India Ltd,  within a year, especially when new needle coke making capacities were being installed and commissioned in China, which is likely to check their unrealistic price rise.

#The scrip of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL), a Miniratna (Cat-1) company today closed at Rs.29.45 in the NSE after making an intraday high of Rs. 30 40. It is an India state owned producer of chemical fertilizers, organic fertilizers and industrial chemicals. As of 2018, it was the second largest producer of fertilizers in India. With food inflation shooting over the roof and government of India focussing on giving relief to the farmers,  I feel the share price of NFLr is expected to make new 52 - week high in the coming days. 
Wikipedia: NFL, incorporated in 1974 is India's largest Central Public Sector Enterprise (Government of India Undertaking) in Fertilizer Sector with a turnover of over Rs.75 billion. Coming under the administrative control of Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, it is the second largest producer of the key fertiliser urea in India. NFL has five gas-based ammonia-urea plants viz Nangal and Bathinda in Punjab, Panipat in Haryana and two at Vijaipur (Madhya Pradesh).

#The share of Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) recommend around Rs.37, some weeks back made a high of Rs.51.75 yesterday. The demand for steel is expected to remain buoyant, as the construction activity picks up post monsoon. Buy on dips. 

#Those who are having a portfolio size of around Rs. 3-5 lakhs can join my profit sharing scheme in the ratio of 70:30 between you and me. It doesn't matter in which part of the world you live as long as you have a Demat account to do the trade -- NRIs and PIOs are welcome.

Tit bits

#BTST - Buy Graphite India Ltd at around Rs. 312, T: Rs.320 - 328, SL: Rs.303.90.

The positive development of steer sector has a direct bearing on this space.

#The scrip of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd (Rs. 122) today hit its 2nd target of Rs. 121, as it touched Rs.125.40 intraday.  The traders are suggested to book complete profits and again reenter if it falls near Rs.117.

National Fertiliser Ltd (Rs.29.70): Buy 

Short Term targets:Rs. 37/41. 

Triggers:

• The company has a subsidy outstanding of
  
  around Rs.5000 crore as of 31st March, 2019. Interestingly, subsidy inflow has started from April,  2019, which will reduce the borrowings. Rs.5000 crore upholstery of the topline would definitely take the scrip to new levels, 
• The company achieved a record sales of  27 Lakh tonnes during the 1st half of the current fiscal. 
• The NDA government's Kissan Samman Nidhi scheme, would be indirectly positive for National Fertiliser Ltd.It has diversified into seeds and ageo chemical business. Interestingly, it was manufacturing and selling urea till 2014/15, but it is now into DAP,  NPK and MoP products. 
• It is investing Rs.1000 crore in energy saving schemes,  that are being implemented in all the company's five plants.
• The dividend yield of the shares of the company is Rs.6.90%, while the book value of the shares of the company is Rs. 45.23.

Tit - bits

#As expected the scrip of National Fertilisers

Ltd (Rs.27.85) broke out of the current ranges and made an intraday high of Rs.28.40.  

Meanwhile, Vegetable inflation for December stood at 60.50% against 36% in November. If you remember, I had mentioned earlier how food inflation is positive for the fertilizer stocks.

With Food inflation shooting over the roof, I'm expecting the scrip to make a new 52 - week high. Buy on every dip. 

#Congratulations to those who invested in the scrip of Texmaco Rail and Engineering Ltd (Rs. 42.15) at around Rs.34 and then averaged when its price fell to around Rs.29. Those who have bought the scrip should book 50% of profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs. 37.

#Today's BTST recommendations to Premium Members and to the clients of my Associate brokerage houses:

1. Buy Praj Industries Ltd at Rs. 116; T: Rs.119 - 124; SL: Rs.111.50.
2. Buy PFC at Rs.124.50;  T: Rs.128 - 132; SL: Rs.121.50.

#Buy the shares of Castrol India Ltd at around Rs.127 for short term targets of Rs.132/137. It is a DEBT FREE company.
The year 2019 ended on a mixed tune for the auto industry with carmakers such as Maruti Suzuki and M&M posting a growth in domestic passenger vehicle wholesales in December while players like Tata Motors, Hyundai, Honda and Toyota witnessed a decline as many manufacturers adjusted deliveries to dealers ahead of the transition to BS-VI vehicles. We can slowly, expect the growth in this sector to pick up in 2020.

Tit - bits

#A major explosion rocked an ammonia-urea

plant factory of Brahmaputra Valley Fertilizer Corporation Limited (BVFCL) at Namrup in Assam's Dibrugarh district, few days back. The explosion destroyed several machines and properties at the plant. According to the media reports, the plant could remain shut for several weeks for repair.

This looks like positive for all fertilizer companies since it will choke supplies. Moreover, National Fertilizers Ltd (Rs.26 85), has entered into North-Eastern states after making successful foray in Southern India. The company in a statement recently said that it has tied up with BVFCL,  the Assam based PSU, for marketing 40,000 tonnes of urea in North-Eastern states under the brand name "Kisan Urea". Besides, BVFCL was not able to produce even 2 lakh metric tonne for the current fiscal year due to plant issues.  So,  supply bottlenecks in the north east are likely to be exploited by NFL. It is engaged in producing and marketing urea, neem coated urea, bio-fertilizers (solid and liquid) and other allied industrial products.

Buy in every dips for medium to long term targets of Rs.91/97. Yesterday, the percentage of Deliverable Quantity to Traded Quantity was a whooping 44.48 %.

#Indian steel industry welcomed the NDA government's decision to promulgate an ordinance to open up coal mining in the country to non-coal companies. 

Indian Steel Association (ISA) said it hails the decision of the Cabinet to amend MMDR Act 1957 and Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Act 2015.

The step taken is expected to make the domestic steel industry more competitive on a global level and will go a long way in reducing the coal imports. 

We could see some speculative gains in Steel counters in the coming days. Steel producers meanwhile, raised prices this year by Rs.1,000-1,500 a tonne as demand perked up.

If you want to know which steel stock looks attractive at the present moment, then you need to join either my Premium Information Service or go for 70:30 profit sharing scheme.

#IT/Software stocks could give good returns in the short term due to devalued INR. I have a good stock in this space which can double in 12/18 months time frame. If anyone wants to invest in that sure shot scrip from the mid cap space,  on profit sharing scheme of 60:40 between you and me can send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com.

Tit bits

The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ais sentiment-negative for the Indian markets which is already reeling under pressure due to escalating crude oil price, a weak INR as well as growth pangs. However,  my gut feeling is that this Iran - US tension will not drag too far. 

Nifty has good support around 11850 - 11650 region,  where it is expected to find intermediate bottom.  

Now or at around 14:45 pm the BSE Sensex was trading at 40,770.28 or down 130.77 points (-0.24%) while the Nifty was seen at 12,003.50 down 53.00 points (-0.41%). The charts are giving some indication that perhaps this correction is over. You can go for Nifty longs with the target of 12100.

#Buy the Share of Wockhardt Ltd at around Rs.239/241 for short term targets of Rs.247/251. This is a speculative buy.

#Buy the shares of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd at around Rs.104/105 for short term targets of Rs.117/121.

#The share of Reliance Capital Ltd (Rs.13.30) has been hitting the LCs since some time.  The stock is expected to test its intermediate bottom before going for a consolidation phase. Stay away for the time being.