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Key benchmark indices ended with small losses on Thursday. While private banks dragged the indices lower, IT shares provided the necessary support; though the market was volatile due to expiry of weekly index options on the NSE.

The S&P BSE Sensex, was down 106.11 points or 0.26% at 41,459.79. The Nifty 50 index lost 26.55 points or 0.22% at 12,174.65.

The sentiment was affected by weak domestic economic data and equally poor global cues.  

Meanwhile, the death toll from the coronavirus in mainland China spiked 23% on Wednesday amid new counting methods adopted by Chinese health officials.

However, the BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.01% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.07%. The market breadth was negative. On the BSE, 1057 shares rose and 1432 shares fell. A total of 157 shares were unchanged.

In an interesting development, the ratings agency S&P Global on Thursday reaffirmed India's long-term rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, saying the country's growth will be strong. The rating agency further added that over the next two years, India will maintain its sound net external position, and its fiscal deficits will remain elevated but broadly in line within forecasts.

S&P expects that Indian economy will continue to outperform peers at a similar level of income, despite a recent slowdown in real GDP growth. It also said that the supportive monetary, fiscal, and cyclical factors should support economic recovery, with real GDP growth averaging 7.1% in fiscals 2020-2024.

India's Industrial Production (IIP) shrank 0.3% to 133.5 in December 2019 over December 2018. Manufacturing sector output declined by 1.2%. Electricity generation also dipped 0.1%. Mining sector output grew by 5.4% compared with December 2018.

Consumer price inflation in January rose to 7.59%, holding around six-year top. CPI rural inflation rose to 7.73% versus 7.23% in December. January core inflation also surged to 4.8% versus 3.7% in December.

This when translated means that Narendra Modi government has put us into Stagflation. It is unfortunate that the RSS is still banking on him,  even though people of India have already lost five and half years of their lives running after the mirage of "Aachche Din"; after voting this unholy NDA government to power -- make no mistake, this rogue government has no similarity, with the A V Vajpayee led NDA at the center. It is one of the historical mistakes of the RSS, which I believe, the leadership will repent later. India is being operated by a doctor, who has no idea on the subject. It is like firing 50 bullets on the hope that at least one will hit the target. 

#The scrip of HSIL recommend at around Rs.53 in this week,  today made an intraday high of Rs.64.90, before closing at Rs.61.25 in the NSE. You can book complete profits and both the targwts Rs. 61/65 has almost been achieved. You can again enter around Rs.54/58, for the targets of Rs.71/72.

#The subscription charge for lifetime membership has been hiked to Rs.1 Lakh for non F&O and Rs.1.30 lakhs with F&O.

Also, the corpus of my profit sharing scheme has been increased to Rs. 5 lakhs and above. 

#The scrip of P C Jewelers Ltd made an intraday high of Rs.22.90, before giving a close at Rs.20.55. We booked profits near Rs.22. It needs to close above Rs. 22, to warrant fresh buying.  Jewelry sector comes under the comsumption category. 

#The correction is probably over in the scrip of National Fertiliser Ltd (Rs.24.25), as it bounced back from the immediate support levels. 

Meanwhile,  you must be aware that Natural Gas is a key raw material for the manufacturing of urea and comprises nearly 70% of the total cost of production. 
According to an estimate,  the cost of production of urea falls by around Rs.1,600-1,700 per tonne for each USD 1 per mmbtu fall in the gas price. So,  the softening gas prices, is credit positive for urea producing sector.

Moreover, the global natural gas price witnessed correction in the recent months and the outlook for the same remaining benign, pulling down the cost of production of Urea and in turn lowering the working capital funding requirements.

Also,  the Asian spot LNG prices have declined precipitously from USD 9-10 per million metric British thermal units (mmbtu) in December 2018 to about USD 4 per mmbtu now, owing to a supply glut and milder winter.

Now,  while the decline in pooled gas prices will reduce the energy savings for the efficient players, it will also improve their contribution on production above the cut-off quantity, for which they receive realisation linked to the import parity price of urea.

Besides, coronavirus outbreak could choke the exports from China,  giving a price rise of fertilizers (basically non urea) in the international markets; apart from an expected increase in demand due to an excellent Ravi sowing season, ahead. 

I hope you also know that, the Centre has revised domestic natural gas prices as per the New Domestic Gas Policy 2014. The revised price will remain operational from October 1, 2019 till March 31, 2020, ie, H2-FY20.

The gas price for locally-produced fields has been revised to $3.23/mmBtu from $3.69/mmBtu, resulting in a 12.50% decrease, and the ceiling price for gas to be produced from difficult fields has also fallen to $8.43/mmBtu from $9.32/mmBtu, resulting in a 9.50% decrease. However, rates for gas produced from difficult fields such as Reliance Industries under-development fields in KG-D6 block will remain at almost the same level.

This is positive for fertilizer and petrochemical companies,  who use gas for production. The cut in fertilizer subsidy will be applicable from the next fiscal i. e. from FY21, and hence it will not have any effect in FY20 or till 31st March, 2020.