Friday, December 01, 2006

F & O Expiry fails to dampen the Market Sentiment; The markets on a strong Bull Phase:Mid, Small & Micro-caps end flat:Crude Reaches $63 per barrel:Time to invest in RIL on all Declines, Is the Kotak Securities Ltd listening?
The market, which had softened from a peak, regained strength in the fag hours, the Sensex crossing 13,700 as buying resumed after the settlement of November 2006 derivative contracts. The November contracts expired yesterday. As per reports, NSE F&O Open Interest had shot up by Rs 1,008 crore, to Rs 60,719 crore. The 30-shares BSE Sensex finished with a gain of 79.58 points (0.58%), at 13,696.31. It was off 13,745.16, the day's high, reached within minutes of commencement of trade. Its low for the day was 13,630.58. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 26.30 points (0.67%), to 3,954.50. The market-breadth was negative, with 1,341 shares declining on BSE, compared to 1,217 that advanced. As many as 58 shares were unchanged. The BSE Small-Cap index closed at 6,647.08, a gain of 12 points while the BSE Mid-Cap index lost 6 points, to settle at 5, 721.60. The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 3,954 crore, lower than Rs 4,409 crore on Wednesday. Among the 30-Sensex pack, 18 advanced while the rest declined. Private sector banking major HDFC Bank was the top gainer, up 3.21% to Rs 1,122, on a volume of 71,305 shares. It had moved in a range of Rs 1,102.90 – Rs 1,124. The BSE Bankex rose 1.30%; ICICI Bank (up 1.53% to Rs 870), SBI (up 1% to Rs 1314), Karnataka Bank (up 3.89% to Rs 129.50), UTI Bank (up 0.83% to Rs 475) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1.86% to Rs 380) being the major beneficiaries of the rally in banking stocks. IT shares witnessed renewed buying, with the BSE IT index being the top gainer among sectoral indices, advancing 1.38%, or 69.48 points, at 5,107.22. Satyam Computers (up 0.73% to Rs 455), Wipro (up 1.70% to Rs 593) and Infosys (up 0.51% to Rs 2,168.20) advanced. The ADRs of the IT triumvirate, Infosys, Satyam and Wipro, rose between 0.5 - 1.8% on Wednesday. IT pivotals have surged in the past few days after reports that top Indian IT firms are chasing over a dozen deals on an average, the sizes of which range between $50 - $100 million. Software major TCS rose 2.11% to Rs 1,189, after signing a 7-year deal worth $65 million for reorganising Somerfield's IT services. Somerfield is a leading UK-based, small-format food retailer. Dr Reddy's Lab rose 2.91% to Rs 756, as ICICI Securities reiterated a 'buy' on the stock, fairly valuing it at Rs 997. In a report released on Wednesday (29 November), ICICI Securities has revised upwards its FY 2007 EPS forecast for Dr Reddy's by 33%, to Rs 43.60. It has revised upwards its FY 2008 EPS forecast by 6% to Rs 31.50. ICICI Securities expects strong earnings momentum to continue for Dr Reddy's Lab over the next 3 - 4 quarters, on the back of a possible 180-day exclusivity for generic Zofran, and robust growth in the core generics business. India's largest private steel maker Tata Steel was the top loser, down 1.99% to Rs 467.50, as 4.36 lakh shares changed hands on BSE. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries was down 0.24% to Rs 1,246.10, on a volume of 4.84 lakh shares. Parsvnath Developers settled at Rs 526.30, on a high volume of 1.60 crore shares. It debuted on BSE at Rs 540, and surged to an intra-day high of Rs 579, the low being Rs 481.50. The real estate developer had priced its IPO at Rs 300 per share. The company's paid-up equity capital is Rs 181.60 crore. Face value per share is Rs 10. NSE has also admitted the scrip to its derivatives segment at a market lot of 700 shares. Oil & refinery stocks slipped after the government announced a cut in retail prices of diesel and petrol by Re 1 and Rs 2, respectively, on Wednesday. This move will further hurt oil marketers' profitability. Indian Oil Corporation (down 3.74% to Rs 446), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (down 2.72% to Rs 284) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (down 2.88% to Rs 344) declined. Among side-counters, Raipur Alloys & Steel jumped 20% to Rs 122.70, as Reliance Mutual Fund acquired 12.5 lakh shares at Rs 100.47 per share, vide block deals, on Wednesday. There were outstanding buy orders for 1.14 lakh shares at the upper limit, on BSE. Leather products maker Crew BOS Products rose 2.13% to Rs 168, and Aztec Software advanced 1.75% to Rs 163.20 amid reports that RBI has raised FII-ceilings in both. While the apex bank has permitted 100% FII-buying in Aztec Software, it has been restricted to 49% in Crew BOS Products. Gujarat Apollo Equipments surged 8.03% to Rs 197.10, extending Wednesday's rally, as the company deferred the rights issue indefinitely on Tuesday. The company, in January 2006, announced a 1:2 rights issue at Rs 100 per share (premium Rs 90 per share), which entailed 50% equity dilution. Crude oil prices eased for the first time this week on Thursday, but remained near a two-month high above $62 after a surprise draw-down in US winter fuel stocks and signs of solid economic growth in the world's top consumer. US light crude was 5 cents lower at $62.41 barrel, slipping after rising above $65.50 on Wednesday to its highest since 2 October, breaking free from the $58 - $62 confine, that has defined prices in the past two months. All Asia/Pacific markets were trading in the positive, while European indices were a mixed bag. The Nikkei average rose 1.23% to its highest level in more than two weeks on Thursday, as Honda Motor Co and other exporters advanced on upbeat US growth data and a weaker yen, and securities brokers such as Nomura Holdings climbed on the Tokyo market's rally. The Nikkei ended up 198.13 points, at 16,274.33, the highest since 14 November 2006. Hang Seng index rose 0.96%, or 179.55 points, to 18,960.48. The domestic economy grew by 9.2% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, higher than market expectations of 8.90%, data released earlier today showed. The annual growth rate in the second quarter of the 2006/07 financial year was higher than the April-June rate of 8.9%. On 28 November 2006, FIIs were net sellers of stocks to the tune of Rs 335.30 crore (gross purchases worth Rs 1894.80 crore and gross sales of Rs 2230.10 crore) while domestic mutual funds were net sellers of stocks to the tune of Rs 268.87 crore (gross purchases worth Rs 404.04 crore and gross sales of Rs 672.91 crore). US stocks jumped on Wednesday, after the government raised its estimate for economic growth, and a surge in oil price lifted energy stocks, helping major indices recover most of the ground they lost from a big sell-off early in the week. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 90.28 points, or 0.74%, to finish at 12,226.73, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index jumped 12.76 points, or 0.92%, to close at 1,399.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 19.62 points, or 0.81%, to end at 2,432.23. ABC India Ltd, the transportation company of repute jumped more than 12% after its was recommended yesterday. The company as mentioned earlier should benefit from the fall in the price of Petroleum products(Petrol/Diesel) and also due to boom in retailing. It was recommended at Rs.39 when it rose to Rs.44.5 in the afternoon trade.
Graivty ( I) Managed to close in the green yeasterday. I think there is nothing to lose on this stock as the spate of cut in the prices of Petroleum products will continue in the days ahead. I have placed a price target of Rs.80--Rs.120 in 12 months time.
Samkrg Piston and Rings Ltd after its has consolidated at around Rs.88--Rs.96 range against started to look attractive at the current price of Rs.87. The stock should cross Rs.150 in 8-18 months time.
Soma Textiles Industries Ltd woulld get benefit from the fall in Cotton Prices and also due to Expansion and restructing exerice. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT IF ARVIND MILLS DOES NOT RISE THEN SOMA TEXTILES OR OTHER TEXTILE STOCKS WILL NOT RISE, IS A FAULTY ARGUMENT. IT IS BECAUSE ARVIND MILLS OR ALOKE INDUSTRIES ARE BASICALLY DENIM PLAYERS, WHEREAS SOMA TEXTILE INDUSTRIES LTD IS ALSO A MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE READYMADE GARMENT SECTION. The company came out with excellent set of numbers for the September, 2006 quater.
ROTO PUMPS LTD IS CONSOLIDATION AROUND RS.44--RS.48. THE COMPANY SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THE BOOM IN THE AGRICULTURE AND INFRASTUCTURE SECTORS.
Radhe Developers Ltd slipped to red after I sent some caveats in the morning hours. the stock hit the Buyer Freeze in the morning.
Also people are exiting Kilburn Engineering Ltd. I am expecting the stock to come down to sub-Rs.45 levels, when again it will attractive. The company turnaround this fiscal but the valuations are too high at the CMP to warrant a puchase.
Best wishes,
Suman Mukherjee
India.

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