Updates on some of my recommendations

1. Granules India Ltd, was recommended around Rs.110-112.50.

The scrip touched an all time high around Rs.940.55 on 22/09/2014 (on my birthday). 

2. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX Ltd) was recommended around Rs.255-270. The scrip made a high of high of Rs.895, on 21/07/2014.

3. B F Utilities Ltd was recommended around Rs.129-130. The scrip made a high of Rs.817.95 on 22/07/2014.

4. Mannapuram Finance Ltd was recommended around Rs.15.50--17.70. The scrip made a high of Rs.31.60  on 19/09/2014.

5. Opto Circuits Ltd was recommended around Rs.25.50-26. The scrip made a high of Rs.44.50 on 22/05/2014.

6. HCC Ltd was recommended around Rs.12.70-12.80. The scrip made a  high of Rs.49 on  01/07/2014.

7. P C Jeweler Ltd was recommended below Rs.88. The scrip made a high of Rs.278 on 23/09/2014.

8. Sarda Energy and Minerals Ltd was recommended around Rs.107.60. The scrip made a high of Rs.402.60 on 21/08/2014.

9. A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services Ltd was recommended around Rs.11.45. The scrip made a high of Rs.36.40 on 25/07/2014.

10. Prakash Industries Ltd was recommended around Rs.49-50. The scrip made a high of Rs.123 on 21/07/2014.

These are some of scrips which gave good returns to the investors over a period, apart from others like IVRCL Ltd, Entegra Ltd, SBTL, Gitanjali Gems Ltd, IRB Infrastructure Ltd, Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd, etc. 

Today, while Pipavav Defence Ltd (Rs.39.15) and Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd (Rs.1.65) hit the buyer freezes; Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.63.15) also closed above some crucial levels. 

Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company last year announced a new order for offshore vessels from a European client. The order was worth Rs.595 crore with an option to supply two more specialised vessels valued at Rs.1200 crore. The global market for specialised offshore vessels stands at US$10 billion. The company, with its well diversified order book among the defence, commercial and offshore segments, intend to focus on the defence and offshore vessel segment. The defence segment holds around 50% of the order book followed by the commercial segment and offshore segment. New orders in the offshore segment coupled with repairs and maintenance orders augur well for the company as it reduces exposure to the commercial segment. Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company spanning over 861 acres of land with two dry docking facilities of 662 m x 65 m (Dry Dock-1) and 750 m x 60 m (Dry Dock-2 under construction) is one of the largest “modular” shipbuilding facilities in India. The shipyard is capable of accommodating 400,000 dwt capacity ships along with construction and repair of a wide range of vessels starting from coastal and naval vessels together with repair and fabrication of offshore platforms and rigs. It also has a dedicated offshore yard with 175 m x 16.89 m quay consisting of both launching and loading platform together with installation of bollard and mooring rings. 

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Shares of Financial Technologies Ltd (Rs.228.30) surged to Rs.235, intra-day after the company stated that it concluded renegotiation of technology supply agreement with Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). There was a big crash in it's share price after the NSEL scam. The stock, should be crossing Rs.300 in the coming days. In other words, Financial Technologies should come back to focus again after a re-agreement with MCX for technology supply.

IVRCL Ltd (Rs.15.85) was recommended today as a fresh buy at Rs.15-15.50, for a target of Rs.21. The scrip surged to Rs.16.30, intra-day. The company has an order book of  more than Rs.20, 000 crore and it is implementing the CDR package. 
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Eng Ltd today closed flat at Rs.38.40. According to the media reports, the government of India is mulling various options, which include lower bank interest rates, infrastructure status to shipyards, a separate fund and also special subsidy to shipbuilders who source raw material and parts locally. It is a company whose promoter is Nikhil Prataprai Gandhi, a person having very good rapport with Senior Ambani. Moreover, Nikhil Gandhi, chairman, Pipavav Shipyard told CNBC-TV18 at the beginning of this year, that the private ship-builder is in talks with a French company for a strategic stake sale. He says this partnership is primarily aimed to bring in the technological know-how and proprietary knowledge of military hardware into the country. The promoter stake after the deal might come down to 41% from 45% initially. SAAB AB of Sweden has already a stake in Pipavav. SAAB AB and the new partner, if the stake sale goes through, will together own 15 percent in the company, says Gandhi. The company has an order book of around Rs.12, 000 crore and is trading near the 52-week low price of Rs.30.55, hence the downside is limited. Besides, Rakesh Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala and Rekha Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, respectively holds 2.11% and 1.30% stake in the company. Also,  the uncertainty over the fate of subsidy payments for shipbuilders such as Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Co. Ltd, ABG Shipyard Ltd and Bharati Shipyard Ltd could lift soon, with the government looking to extend the payment timeline for a scheme which ended seven years ago.

Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.65.50) which got badly hammered, was recommended today at Rs.65, just a month ahead of Diwali. This is a sure shot recommendation for  a target of Rs.79-80, in the short term. Shares of jewellery makers should rise on expectations of pick up in sales in the festive season. Meanwhile, according to the Business Standard, September 3, 2014:  Amid expectations of a turnaround in global jewellery purchases and a revival in ornament exports, Indian diamond processors participated aggressively in the De Beers’ sightholders contract registration to ensure supply of rough diamonds till 2018. “The basic raw materials remain the same. Exports cannot decline beyond a point. Therefore, raw material surety is required. De Beers processes only 40-42 per cent of the rough diamonds they mine and, hence, Indian processors should take a long-term view,” said Sabyasachi Ray, executive director, GJEPC. Mehul Choksi, managing director of Gitanjali Gems, a De Beers’ sightholder, said the current fall in exports was a seasonal trend. “Exports decline in the July-August period. But so far, this year has been good. We anticipate the economic recovery in the US will yield positive results on jewellery exports,” he said. The US accounts for 38 per cent of global jewellery consumption.

My earlier recommended Genera Agri Ltd today rose by more than 15% and closed at Rs.8.24. The intra-day high for the scrip was Rs.8.48.

The Nifty has closed with a weekly loss of 152 points in the last week. On the other hand, the level of 7850 showed buying interest on Friday, from where the Nifty reversed as was expected. Today, the small cap index was strong since the start. 

Financial Technologies Ltd: What are its Future Short Term Targets?

Some points need to be highlighted here:

(i) According to NDTV Profit, August 27, 2014: 

Jignesh Shah-led FTIL asserted that promoters of MCX-SX did not conceal facts while seeking extension of recognition of the exchange in 2009 from capital market regulator Sebi.
The Bombay High Court did not find anything illegal in the buyback arrangement.
"...it was expressly held that the said buy back arrangement is not in violation of the Securities Contract Regulation Act (SCRA), 1956, and the Securities Contract (Regulation) (Manner of Increasing and Maintaining Public Shareholding in Recognised Stock Exchanges) Regulation, 2006 (MIMPS)," it said.
This Bombay High Court order was challenged by Sebi in the Supreme Court.
"The Supreme Court passed a consent order. Finally, Sebi granted permission to MCX-SX to undertake the business for all segments in addition to currency derivative segment after being satisfied that MCX-SX has complied with all the legal requirements."
"Thus the matter regarding the alleged violation of SCRA and MIMPS regulations stands adjudicated at the highest judicial level and cannot be re-opened," the statement said.
Regarding alleged irregularities in grant of extension to MCX-SX, FTIL said promoters of the exchange had always believed that the inter-se arrangements amongst the shareholders were legal.
"Further at the time of extension of recognition of MCX-SX in the year 2009, we understand that MCX-SX only sought time from Sebi for reducing the shareholding to comply with applicable Sebi regulations."
"We understand that at that point of time, no statement/representation was made by MCX-SX to Sebi in its application for extension that it was in compliance with all the relevant Sebi regulations. Therefore, the question of concealing certain facts by the promoters of MCX-SX does not arise," FTIL said.
Stating that the application for extension of recognition was made by MCX-SX and not by FTIL or Mr Shah, the company said it was surprising that promoters of MCX-SX and Jignesh Shah are being implicated in the FIR for certain alleged non-disclosures in the application.

(ii) The Bombay High Court recently appointed a three-member committee to audit NSEL and liquidate assets of its defaulting borrowers to facilitate a refund of investors’ money. Authorities claim they have attached properties worth about Rs.5,000 crore of the defaulting borrowers. 

(iii) Justice AM Thipsay of the Bombay High Court, said the transactions in question were being entered through brokers who had knowledge of the commercial market. He said: "Those terming themselves as investors were actually traders". And, so, the judge also questioned whether the Maharashtra Protection of Interests of Depositors (in Financial Establishments) Act was at all valid in this case.

The judge says the fact that transactions in question were not genuine ones of sale or purchase was known to both sides. The so-called investors and their brokers were pursuing high returns without bothering about the legalities of the trades in question. That these trades were fictitious were quite clear to the investors, too, said the judge, and they’d “entered into the transactions purely as financial investments”.

“Going by the broad probabilities of the case, it cannot be accepted that the persons who are now crying foul, were not aware of the fact that their transactions were not genuine. They were looking at these transactions clearly as an investment of their monies yielding safe returns,” the court said.

(iii) Merging NSEL with FTIL, according to the experts would be difficult to undertake, given that FTIL was a publicly-listed company and such a move may be opposed by minority shareholders.

(iv) According to Forbes India, 4 September, 2014:

As in some financial market scams, investors entered into these contracts through registered brokers, lured by expectations of capital growth. 
How much did (Jinesh) Shah know about this and what could he have done? His closest friends and business associates told Forbes India that while he expanded operations to Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, he began losing the plot. Shah had spent years battling with regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to acquire a stock licence for his newest exchange, MCX-SX. He won that mandate, but probably did not bother to monitor what was unfolding at NSEL. 
The imbroglio also revealed more about Shah’s personality. Some friends and associates, seen as part of Shah’s “inner circle”, revealed that he could have actually walked out of the mess with his head held high. There were at least two possible corporate suitors, who were in talks for a potential bailout of FTIL, if Shah had agreed to move out. But ego and the need for control perhaps prevented him from going ahead with the deal. 
Also, unlike most previous cases, several investors who lost money in the NSEL scam were well-off. As an investment consultant told us he had “no sympathy” for investors who–keen on making quick bucks and higher returns-lost money. They did not do their due diligence. 

Financial  Technologies Ltd

CMP: Rs.254.80

24 August 2014: Jignesh Shah, founder and promoter of Financial Technologies Group, who was out of action following the Rs 5,500- crore National Spot Exchange scam, has secured bail. 

Shah's high-profile friends may have deserted him, but his core team-his friend and cofounder of Financial Technologies Dewang Neralla, brother Manjay Shah and cousin Paras Ajmera-is said to be conducting business in his absence.

In fact, insiders say it is Ajmera, who is carrying out all crucial behind-the-scene operations. Some in the market believe that Ajmera is a master strategist and close to the broking fraternity. 

Such is Ajmera's hold that he is said to have even controlled the salary of every employee in the company. Last November, Ajmera resigned as a director from the Board of MCX, but sources say he was the architect in signing the deal with Kotak Mahindra Bank for selling Financial Technologies' 15-per cent stake in the Exchange for Rs 459 crore.

Courtesy: Mail Online

FTIL to 'highlight correct facts' of MCX-SX buyback to CBI

Photo: Business Standard

27 Aug, 2014: MUMBAI: Financial Technologies (India) or FTIL has clarified to the BSE that it would make a representation to CBI "highlighting the correct facts" with regard to the "alleged illegality" of the buyback arrangement between itself and a nationalised bank of MCX Stock Exchange's shares. 

CBI on Monday lodged an FIR against three serving officials and a former one of Sebi, and Jignesh Shah, promoter of FTIL — the erstwhile promoter of MCXSX — alleging that the promoters of the bourse had entered into a buyback arrangement with a nationalised bank, in violation of relevant rules, and "in connivance with Sebi officials, deliberately suppressed this material fact" while applying for an extension of recognition of MCX-SX, to conduct trade in currency derivatives in 2009. 

The FTIL stock closed down almost 5% at Rs 259 apiece on Tuesday. 

FTIL in its clarification pointed out that the Bombay High Court found "nothing illegal in the said buyback arrangement" while hearing a petition filed by MCX-SX against a Sebi order of 2010 declining to give it permission to operate as a full-fledged stock bourse, other than for offering currency derivatives. 

Further, at the time of the extension of recognition of MCXSX in the year 2009, "we understand that MCX-SX only sought time from Sebi for reducing the shareholding to comply with the applicable Sebi regulations. 

We understand that at that point of time, no statement/representation was made by MCX-SX to Sebi in its application for extension that it was in compliance with all the relevant Sebi regulations. Therefore, the question of concealing certain facts by the promoters of MCX-SX does not arise," said FTIL. 

It further added that as required by law, the application for renewal/extension of recognition was made by MCX-SX and not by its promoters (i.e. FTIL) or Jignesh Shah. 

Courtesy: The Economic Times

NSEL: Jignesh Shah’s fall from grace and why he will weather it

Photo: Live Mint

Aug 5, 2013: One question that has risen ever since troubles at National Spot Exchange emerged is: what will happen to Jignesh Shah and the empire he built on his entrepreneurial spirit?

Jignesh Shah's has been a story of both backward and forward integrations. He started off in the business of exchange technology, went on to set up exchanges, both commodities and equity, and also ventured into many related businesses.

The growth of his flagship company Financial Technologies (FT), which is also the holding company, has been envious.

Initially a technology services provider for stock exchanges, FT set up Multi Commodity Exchange, which went on to dominate the Indian commodity futures trading market.

Under a weak Forward Markets Commission, which did not have much power, commodity futures trading in India was thriving, with turnover running into trillions.

For FT, MCX was a money spinner. The exchange offered lower transaction charges as the technology that it used for trading came from its own parent company.

Shah spotted business opportunity around MCX and was quick to cash in on those.

He set up National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC), National Spot Exchange and even a real time market data provider TickerPlant.

Initially, NBHC set up warehouses for those commodities traded on MCX. Later on, it saw a bigger business opportunity by offering warehousing services to farmers and also started facilitating bank credit to farmers.

According to a report in Business Today magazine published in 2009, as a facilitator of farm credit, NBHC got two-way fee - 25 basis points from farmers and 25-75 bps from banks.

With the government allowing trades in warehousing receipts, it is not only NBHC that got a boost, but NSEL too got advantages.

Warehousing receipts are the receipts that farmers got while storing their produce in NBHC warehouses.

(Ironically, these are the very instruments that have come into focus in the present controversy involving NSEL. It has been found that the spot exchange, where short sales are not allowed, had actually permitted warehouse receipts trading, without checking whether the trader had the underlying commodity in the warehouse.)

NSEL thrived in a regulatory vaccum. While FMC regulated the futures market, the spot exchanges came under the state government. There was no clarity as to who regulated the spot markets. It was an exemption from the Union ministry of consumer affairs that enabled the NSEL to launch a product that had characteristics of forwards contract.

After launching NSEL, FT set up the real-time data platform even as plans were on to roll out a stock exchange. The data service had to be scaled down and the equity exchange, MCX SX, was launched after much delay because of Sebi's reservations and the legal battle that ensued.

According to the Business Today report, the vision behind all these moves was financial inclusion.

"FT's strategy is based on driving financial inclusion by reaching out to the bottom of the pyramid as this will drive future business," the report quotes Sanjeev Patkar, Director (Research), Dolat Capital, as saying.

Clearly, Shah aimed higher. As part of his strategy to take his business international, he started the Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX) in partnership with Dubai Multi-Commodities Centre (DMCC).

As the old adage goes, the higher you go, the steeper the fall.

The share prices of Financial Technologies fell a sharp 70 percent, in just two days after the troubles at NSEL emerged.

According to a report in the Business Standard, in the boom year of 2007-08, Financial Technologies was valued over Rs 13,000 crore. Now, it is down to just about Rs 700 crore.

According to an Economic Times report, Shah himself witnessed a wealth erosion of about Rs 1000 crore.

There are many theories-including conspiracy angles-about what resulted in the down fall.

Sudip Bandyopadhyay, managing director and chief executive officer of Destimoney Securities, sums up it all in a report in Mint.

"He (Shah) has probably bitten off more than he can chew."

According to him, Financial Technologies' troubles started with MCX-SX. "The problem started when the group tried to get into the stock exchange business," he has been quoted as saying in the report.

The BS report says trouble may be brewing at DGCX as DMCC has taken technology of Cinnober, another exchange technology provider, instead of FT's. It also says FT may be planning to sell off its 44 percent stake in DGCX.

But is it all over for Financial Technologies and Shah? Many are of the opinion it is not.

"I never quite liked his style. But he has that ability to come out of difficulties," PH Ravikumar, former CEO of NCDEX and once an arch rival of Shah, has been quoted as saying in the ET report.

Courtesy: Firstbiz

Share buyback arrangement was legal, says FTIL 

FTIL clarification in response to FIR registered by CBI

Mumbai, Aug 27 2014 Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. (FTIL) has said that the buyback arrangement for shares with shareholder banks of MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) was declared legal by the Bombay high court while hearing the matter between the exchange and the capital markets regulator. 

The FTIL clarification was in response to the first information report (FIR) registered by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) on Monday for alleged violations while granting extension to MCX-SX. According to CBI, the buyback agreement entered into with the banks was illegal. 

“The Bombay high court, in its order, (Page No. 145 Para VII) had ruled that “the buy-back agreement cannot be held to be illegal as found in the impugned order of the whole timer member of SEBI on the ground that they constitute forward contacts. Hence, the accusation of CBI does not hold ground,” said FTIL.

Courtesy: Live Mint

Financial Tech contests CBI charges

Photo: First Biz

[Editor: Mr.Jignesh Shah, was a non-executive director of NSEL and was not involved in its day-to-day operations. Mr.Shah's lawyer Mahesh Jethmalani has reportedly argued in court that Shah had no knowledge of the crisis, saying it was perpetrated by a clutch of NSEL employees and brokers, including Anjani Sinha, former chief executive of the commodity exchange. FTIL's net profit rose 57.93% to Rs.128.24 crore on 27.43% increase in total income to Rs.216.05 crore in Q1 June 2014 over Q1 June 2013. FTIL is among the global leaders in offering technology IP (Intellectual Property) and domain expertise to create and trade on next generation financial markets. It is a global leader in creating and operating next-generation tech centric financial exchanges]
MUMBAI, AUGUST 26:  Financial Technologies has contested CBI's charges of irregularities in grant of licence last year to its subsidiary MCX Stock Exchange. The CBI had accused Financial Technologies of entering into a buyback agreement with banks while reducing its stake to meet SEBI norms.

FTIL has quoted the Bombay High Court order to clarify that the “buy-back agreement cannot be held illegal as found in the impugned order of the Whole Time Member of SEBI on the ground that they constitute forward contacts.” Hence, the accusation of CBI does not hold ground, said the company.

Promoter not liable

On the CBI indictment for not disclosing the buyback agreement to the regulator at the time of application seeking extension of the MCX-SX licence, FTIL said the application was filed by the exchange and not by the promoter-company. Therefore, the promoter is not liable for the matter, it said.

MCX-SX was set up by FTIL and its commodity exchange arm MCX and began functioning as a full-fledged stock exchange last year after a prolonged battle with SEBI.

On Monday, CBI filed FIRs against three serving SEBI officials Muralidhar Rao, Executive Director; Vishakha More, Assistant General Manager and Rajesh Dangeti, Deputy General Manager. It also filed an FIR against former Executive Director JN Gupta besides FTIL promoter Jignesh Shah for alleged irregularities aimed at obtaining a licence to operate the stock exchange.

Courtesy: The Hindu Businessline

MCX SX cancels Financial Technologies warrants

[Editor: Today the shares of Financial Technologies Ltd were recommended as a buy at Rs.277-278, for a target of Rs.320-325, in the short term. On the other hand the shares of Allied Digital Services Ltd (Rs.19.40) are buzzing, as the company is the hot favourite to win the mega, Rs.1000 Cr (please clarify the exact value of the tenders from your sources), Mumbai-CCTV-project. The project, announced to enhance security in the city after the 26/11 terror attacks, aims at installing 6,000 CCTV cameras in the city (14 cameras per sq km)]

MUMBAI, AUG 25:  MCX Stock Exchange has extinguished warrants held by Financial Technologies and transferred Rs. 56.25 crore non-refundable interest free deposit issued against the warranted to the capital reserve.

The development will increase the exchange networth to Rs. 160 crore from Rs. 110 crore and help meet SEBI minimum networth criteria of Rs. 100 crore.

The decision to cancel the warrants was taken by the board after perusing legal opinion on the SEBI order dated March 19 and Securities Appellate Tribunal order dated July 9 regarding the warrants held by Financial Technologies.

Earlier this year, the exchange shifted MCX and FTIL from “Promoter Category” to “Public Category”.

Meanwhile, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India has informed that it has concluded the supplementary audit of the financial statements of MCX-SX for the year ended March, 2014 and has mentioned that nothing significant had come to their notice which would give rise to any further comment or supplement to the Auditors’ Report, said MCX-SX in a statement.

The Exchange has shifted its corporate office to its new premises at Bandra Kurla Complex in Mumbai.

Saurabh Sarkar, Managing Director, MCX SX stated that “We are poised for a complete turnaround in the next few months. The recent developments will improve the sentiments of potential investors and restore the faith of the market participants on the turnaround of our exchange.”

Courtesy: The Hindu Business Line

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

In the morning note to the Premium Service members we asked to SHORT Nifty_Futures with a SL at around 7810, the Nifty_Futures made an intra-day low of 7,567.75, after opening at 7,650, giving good returns to Nifty traders. Where will the market go from here? How to play the Indian Stock Markets, post budget? To know all these join the Premium Service or Trade through my recommended brokerage  house, to maximize your returns. This market is not for the new-comers and novices, therefore, allow the experts to trade on your behalf. 

A buy call call was initiated today on MCX Ltd at Rs.678, for an intra-day target of Rs.686-696, SL--Rs.674. The stock touched Rs.720.40, intra-day. Financial Technologies (I) Ltd (FT), sold 1.02 mln shares of the company at Rs.664 per share in a bulk deal while Rakesh Jhunjhunwala bought 1 mln shares of the company in a bulk deal. This stock was recommended a much lesser price, earlier also.

The investors were asked to buy (or average) the shares of Western India Shipyard Ltd at Rs.2.50-2.55, for a target of Rs.3.5 in the short term. The government has asked for more coals to be imported from outside, due to failure of Coal India Ltd, the world's largest coal miners to meet the consumption demands, of Indian power companies. Hence, the shipping sector would be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this move. And ship building or repair industry being a part of that, would also have a rub-off effect Moreover, the government is likely to continue with the tax breaks for the ship building and repair sectors, in this budget.
Those who bought the shares of Allied Digital Services Ltd (Rs.20.85) at higher price, should complete the average, as the scrip could rise post Infosy Ltd's, June, 2014 quarter results, which is due this week. 

BULLION: BROKERAGE REPORT

Bullion counter may extend its upside momentum amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which resulted in safe haven buying.

Escalating tension in Ukraine will remain in focus for the bullion investors in the near term. Global ETF demand along with strong Chinese demand is also lifting the prices. Gold advanced 14% this year on demand for a safe haven as turmoil in Ukraine hurt emerging market assets already weakened by cuts to U.S. stimulus, while growth slowed in China, the largest consumer. Recently, President Barack Obama and Chancellor Angela Merkel have warned the ballot has no international legitimacy. Gold may move in the range of 30000-31200 in MCX while white metal silver can hover in the range of 45500-49500. 

The gold/silver ratio has moved up from 60 to 64.5 which showed that gold outperformed Silver recently. This ratio can hover in the range of 62-66 in the near term. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust increased to 813.3 metric tonnes yesterday the most since Dec. 20. 

The yellow metal rebounded this year, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve, which next meets March 18-19, announced reductions of bond buying in each of its past two meetings. Last year, COMEX gold slumped by 28 percent, the most since 1981, amid a U.S. equity rally to a record, muted inflation and speculation that the Federal Reserve would taper monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, physical buying, particularly out of Asia, has been subdued at best for the past few weeks.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

In the morning inputs to the Paid Group, it was mentioned that if the Nifty_Spot can hold above 6220 on the upside, then  it might manage to cross 6240 during the days. The Nifty rose to 6245.95 intra-day, before closing at 6238.80 with a gain of 38.75 points. Also, the stock from the automobile sector which was recommended yesterday night, hit the buyer freeze today at Rs.58.40. The  name of the scrip will be disclosed tomorrow evening. Today, I could recommend another stock from the small cap space to the Paid Group members and to those who are trading through my recommended brokerage houses. In these kinds of markets the best strategy is to buy and keep holding, the profits are expected to come, if your choice of stocks are right, be it Manappuram Finance Ltd (Rs.22.85, recommended at Rs.18 and Rs.15) or BF Utilites Ltd (Rs.543.30, recommended at Rs.129) or MCX Ltd (Rs.524, recommended at Rs.264). 

BHEL recommended around Rs.148-149, today touched the 2nd target of Rs.162, as it hit an intra-day high of Rs.162.50. The closed at Rs.162.05 with a gain of 1.63%. You can either stay put in the stock with a SL of Rs.157 or put the same money in HINDALCO Industries Ltd at Rs.98.35. There were some reports that probably, the inter-ministerial group has cleared Mahan coal block in Madhya Pradesh, jointly held by the company, Essar Power, and DB Power, to be retained by the companies on having secured forest clearance. The immediate target is Rs.107. The SL is now Rs.97--you can take a risk of Rs.2 on closing basis and invest in the scrip. 

There is no stopping of P C Jeweler Ltd, which touched the 6th target today at Rs.103 and is  now moving towards the 7th target of Rs.109, if it is able to clear the stiff resistance zone of Rs.104-105. The scrip today closed at Rs.103.45, with a gain of 2.32%. Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd which was strongly recommended today to the Paid Group members, closed with a gain of 1.66% at Rs.27 .55. 

Tulip Telecom Ltd after it was recommended on Monday, hit another buyer freeze at Rs.4.09. The company is likely to be taken over by a turnover expert. Also, Entegra Ltd which repeatedly recommended here in this blog today closed at Rs.4.12. This stock will also double your returns in the next few weeks time frame. Even if you have not bought the scrip, please buy it and keep holding. 

Meanwhile both Allied Digital Services Ltd (Rs.13.77) and Glodyne Technoserve Ltd (Rs.7) closed with gains on the bourses today.  

Gold curbs to arrest CAD hit West Bengal’s artisans hard 

[Editor: As expected the poor artisans of this sector are  hit the  most, especially at  a time when the inflation is too high and the unemployment rate is increasing. P Chidambarams' draconian methods, will now perhaps completely destroy the Gems and Jewellery sector, like many others like, Infrastructure, Power, Real Estate, Automobile, Ceramics, etc. etc. The general elections are very near, and the affected people might show their anger in the ballot box]

KOLKATA: With elections round the corner, the Mamata Banerjee government is perturbed over artisans in gold trade losing jobs as there is hardly any work with jewellers due to supply crunch of the yellow metal. 

The state supplies the best artisans in jewellery trade and nearly 1 crore people from the state are engaged in the trade. 

Talking to ET, the state labour minister Purnendu Basu said, "If things take a turn for the worse, then we will try to find schemes where these artisans can be absorbed. It is a matter of great concern for us. Let's see what steps the Central government takes on gold. We will also talk to the state's jewellery trade to find out a way. We cannot allow artisans to remain jobless." 

The jewellery trade employs nearly 3.5 crore ar artisans. Among them artisans from Bengal are famous for the  their handmade jewellery, which are sold at a premium. 

Nemichand Bamalwa, member, All Indian Gem & Jewellery Trade Federation said "Nearly 15 -20 lakh artisans from Bengal are jobless right now. If this situation continues for another two to three months then they will be forced to leave the profession and look for some other profession. But that too will be difficult for them.

As of now there is hardly any demand in gold and whatever minimum work is taking place is in the recycled categories where families are redesigning their old gold to meet immediate requirements." But there seems to be no respite for the gold trade immediately. 

According to agency reports, revenue secretary Sumit Bose has said that review of gold curbs will take place by the end of March. India used to be the world's biggest importer of gold until 2012. But the swollen CAD forced the government to increase import duty on gold from 2% to 10% and rule. 

"We are more concerned about the 80:20 rule that has resulted in increased smuggling of gold through the NRI route. This rule should be removed immediately if the sector has to survive. Otherwise many will lose their living," added Bamalwa. 

On July 22 last year, the Reserve Bank of India had said that a fifth of the gold purchases by importers in every lot would have to be exclusively made available to exporters. It said only 80% of the imports could be used for domestic purposes, and that too for entities engaged in jewellery trade, bullion dealers and banks. 

In fact, Congress president and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi has written a letter to the commerce ministry to look into the matter following a meet with the All India Gem & Jewellery Trade Federation. Commenting on the outlook for gold, Sugandha Sachdeva, AVP (metals, energy and currency research), Religare Securities said "At MCX, Rs 29,650/10gm and Rs 29,900/10gm remain immediate supply zones, above which prices may soar towards Rs 30,500/10gm in near term. On the flip side, in case prices fail to breach the said levels, they can testRs 28,850-28,800/10gm on the lower side. 

Courtesy: The Economic Times

Gold to remain buoyant for short term on robust Chinese buying

FOMC meeting in the US and monetary policy by the RBI to determine its long term sustenance

Mumbai  January 25, 2014: Gold prices rose 6 per cent so far this month due to re-emergence of safe haven demand from risk appetite countries including China where consumers parked their large quantum of disposable income ahead of Lunar holiday. Going forward, however, gold price is likely to remain elevated at least until the shadow on economic policy gets cleared in the scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on January 28 and 29; and monetary policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) next week.

During the period between January 1 and 25, gold recorded a sharp jump of around 6 per cent from $1,200 an oz to $1271.16 an oz in London spot market. During the same period, the yellow metal settled at Rs 30,200 per 10 grams from the level of Rs 29134 per 10 grams on January 1, a rise of 3.67 per cent. While the rupee recorded a depreciation of 1.44 per cent during the same period from the level of 61.80 to 62.69 against the dollar, the bullion in local currency term recorded a modest rise compared to that in dollar term.

“This is because of a drastic decline in the premium in India which witnessed a sharp fall from around $150 an oz on January 1 to $117 an oz on Saturday, said a leading bullion dealer in Zaveri Bazaar, India’s largest spot market for precious metals.

Meanwhile, t wo Russian gold miners - Petropavlovsk and Nord Gold - plan to cut production in 2014 as they focus on cost reduction after a slump in the gold price. Petropavlovsk expects its 2014 gold production to decline 16 percent year-on-year to 625,000 troy ounces after it sold high-cost alluvial assets.

A number of gold producers was hit badly by a 28 per cent fall in the price of gold last year - its biggest annual loss in 32 years - prompting miners to cut costs, delay new projects and hedge, selling their production forward.

Miners have set the benchmark cost of production at $1200 an oz which if gold breaches downwards then they will have no option but to cut production.

“Gold price remained high despite low investment demand due to robust Chinese buying. Also, global slide in equities followed by easing dollar index helped investors to seek a safe haven buying in gold which kept the price of the yellow metal up,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, Incharge (metals, energy & currency) Research, Religare Securities Ltd.

Breaching the level of $1287 however will see the price hitting $1325 an oz in international market translating thereby in India at Rs 30500 – 30600 per 10 grams level in futures market on the Multi Commodity Exchange.

The bullion, however, will see a strong resistance at $1275 an oz in international market and Rs 29600 per 10 grams on the MCX, she added.

Meanwhile, a recent report by the global consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS forecast, gold price to breach $1330 an oz level this quarter.

Courtesy: The Business Standard

Gold futures likely to gain past one-month high

[Editor: India’s central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), earlier partially eased restrictions on import of gold doré bar (semi pure alloy of gold and silver) by allowing refineries to import 15 % of their gross annual requirement in first two months and remaining as per export performance. “Subsequent to this, the quantum of gold doré to be imported should be determined lot-wise on the basis of export performance,” the country’s central bank noted. January has traditionally been a good month for precious metals, at least for the past three years and with this move the chief exporters of Gold Jewelries like Shree Ganesh Jewellery House (I) Ltd (SGJHIL) would be benefited the most. According to my sources, the company has made elaborate plans to boost exports, and giving less focus on the retail and other businesses. It would also benefit from the RBI's recent decision to allow Gold-loan-companies, to give higher amount of loan against gold jewellery pledged by borrowers. NBFCs can now give up to 75%, up from 60% now, of the value of the gold jewellery pledged as loan. SGJHIL is now trading at Rs.26.70]

MUMBAI Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:Gold futures in India are likely to extend gains past their highest level in a month, on the back of positive leads from overseas market, although investors will continue to monitor the rupee for directions.

The actively traded gold contract for December delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 0.22 percent higher at 29,330 rupees per 10 grams, after hitting a high of 29,390 rupees, a level last seen on December 16.

"Gold and silver looks good in the short-term on the back of Chinese buying for Lunar New year and commodity index rebalancing in favour of gold and silver," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director with Commtrendz Research.

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 7.49 tonnes to 797.05 tonnes on Friday - the first increase in a month.

Buying is advised in MCX gold on dips to 29,250 rupees, for a target of 29,600 rupees, with a stop loss at 29,025 rupees, said Thiagarajan.

Silver contract for April delivery on the MCX was 0.04 percent higher at 45,156 rupees per kg.

Buying is advised on dips in silver at 44,900, with a stop loss at 44,500, targeting 45,800 rupees, said Thiagarajan.

(Reporting by Siddesh Mayenkar; Editing by Anand Basu)

Courtesy: Reuters

Market Mantra

Punj Lloyd Ltd which was recommended yesterday, at around Rs.25, for a target of Rs.27, is now trading at Rs.28.25. Those who have invested in the scrip can book some profits and invest the same in ARSS Infrastructure Projects Ltd (BSE Code: 533163) at Rs.20, for a target of Rs.25. The stock exchanges have unnecessarily put the stock in the restricted category, when there is neither volume or movement in the counter. The government of India should remove all the inefficient people managing the exchanges. It is because of these people the scams  involving Financial Technologies, NSEL and MCX Ltd takes place. What is the need to put a stock in the T-group or make the circuit as low as 5%, when there is hardly any trading in the counter? Are the authorities insane... or blind? CLICK HERE.
The Gold Loan Companies like Manappuram Finance Ltd (Rs.15.70) and Muthoot Finance Ltd (Rs.99.60) should move up at a top speed as the companies are set to get double benefits: (i) The MSF rates has been cut (CLICK HERE), which will make the cost of funds less and (ii) The gold prices have been steady since the last couple of months and has never fallen below, 20% from the peak price. If you can remember, the LTV of the gold loan companies is only 60%. So, this will make the loans not only secure but also, give confidence to the minds of the investors. Also, since the price of the gold has steadily increased from Rs.25, 000 per 10 gm to around Rs.29, 000 plus a gram, the value of the assets of the company (gold) will also increase. Therefore, just wait for a blast to happen in the counter of the Manappuram Finance Ltd.
Geodesic Ltd (Rs.5.02) and Glodyne Tech Ltd (Rs.8.97) have also hit their respective buyer freezes. It does not make any sense, to keep the circuit as low as 5% per day, when there is no such restrictions in the F&O segment. It is because all of all these highhandedness, that we do not find any uniformity in the market--some stocks go on rising, more than 25% in a day, while in case of others their movements are restricted, to sometimes even less than 2%. This is a weird concept, which the government needs to think about seriously. The government of India should revamp the management of the stock exchanges if its want to bring the retail investors back in the stock markets. This (Retail Investor) community has gone extinct due to mistreatment given both by the brokers and the stock exchanges. 

Gold prices rebound; jewellers stocking up for festivals

Thu Oct 3, 2013: Gold futures rebounded on Thursday from their lowest level in two weeks, tracking gains in overseas prices, though a strong rupee limited the upside.

* Despite the price rise, demand improved slightly as jewellers were seen placing orders for the peak festive season.

* At 2:57 p.m., the benchmark October gold contract the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 1.21 percent higher at 29,886 rupees per 10 grams. It hit a low of 29,352 rupees on Tuesday, a level last seen on September 18.

* "Some jewellers are placing orders as they have very thin inventory. They want supplies for Dussehra and Diwali," said a dealer with a private importing bank in Mumbai.

* India will celebrate the Hindu festivals of Dussehra in the third week of October and Diwali in the first week of November, a period when buying gold is considered auspicious.

* Some banks, which are primary dealers of bullion, re-started imports after the customs department gave its approval to some lots.

* Imports had virtually stopped after the so-called 80/20 principle, which tied exports with domestic consumption, creating confusion among government officials, and prompting the commerce ministry to call a meeting to break the deadlock.

* Overseas, gold held onto sharp overnight gains in Asian trading on Thursday as weak U.S. economic data and a partial government shutdown raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would stick to its bullion-friendly stimulus for longer.

* The rupee rose 1 percent on Thursday. A strong rupee makes gold imports cheaper.

* Indian markets were closed on Wednesday for a national holiday.

(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Prateek Chatterjee)

Courtesy: Reuters

Gold Survey: Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week

[Editor: Gold closed with a gain of 3.17% in the MCX Ltd, today!! Congratulations to all the Gold Bulls.

Special thanks to John Browne (Euro Pacific Capital Economic Consultant, US), Jim Rickards (Tangent Capital Partners Senior MD, US) and Peter David Schiff (CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc, US).....!! I was very bullish on the GOLD, after reading lot of positive reports on the same and especially when it fell below Rs.30, 000 per 10 grams in Mumbai (Bombay). I had in this connection put a number of analysis on this blog, hope some of you have read the same].

Gold prices are forecast to rise next week, a majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey said.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 19 responded this week. Of those 19 participants, 11 see prices up, while four see prices down and four are neutral or see prices trading in a range. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants were nominally bullish. As of noon EDT Friday, prices were up about $8 on the week. As of Sept. 13, survey participants have been correct three of the past five weeks.

Sean Lusk, director commercial hedging division at Walsh Trading, said there are a few reasons why he sees prices rising. The split views of the varied Federal Reserve governors on monetary policy suggest that uncertainty remains, which “conveys to me traders will most likely have a bullish bias,” he said.

Gold could also find safe-haven demand if next week’s nonfarm payrolls report comes out disappointing; additionally, gold could find more safe-haven demand amid the fiscal brinkmanship going on in the U.S. Congress, he added.

Mark Leibovit, editor, VR Gold Letter, said he’s giving bulls the benefit of the doubt, but is watching technical charts closely. “Under $1,285-$1,300 the chances of seeing a retest of $1,180 or even lower prices becomes a possibility. Bearish sentiment is still high and the ‘fundamental’ case presented by most analysts is bearish. This makes me more bullish, because I believe their view of the fundamental case is incorrect. Gold is a currency and with world currencies all being devalued and the fact they are essentially nothing more (than) paper is enough of a reason to be accumulating gold and to remain constructive,” he said.

Those who see weaker prices said gold’s outlook remains soft. “I think gold will be lower next week,” said Kevin Grady, owner of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC. “Although gold may hold a bid as concerns persist about a resolution to the debt ceiling, I think some mines will take advantage of any rally to start hedging. Every recent rally has been met with very aggressive selling. The taper has been postponed but it still looms heavy on gold. Once this program begins and we see interest rates rising, we should be testing our recent lows of $1,182. The mines are starting to realize this. I will be watching the forwards market for the first signs of any major hedging.”

A few market participants said they expected gold prices to hold in the current range.

“Most markets this week are being held hostage by the budget/government funding battle and it is anyone’s guess as to the outcome,” said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading. “Gold posted an inside week — within last week’s range — so no new price discovery to consider…. The fundamental factors remain the same, physical buying supports on the dips and ETF liquidation limits the highs. I still view gold as range bound and whichever way it runs, you just have to go for the ride. I remain neutral.”

Courtesy: Forbes

Gold price today: Latest updates

Thursday, September 26, 2013: Gold prices failed to extend yesterday's gains and moved lower by Rs 110 to Rs 30,105 per ten grams in futures trade early Thursday as rupee strengthened against the dollar at the Interbank Foreign Exchange market.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold for delivery in October declined by Rs 110 to Rs 30,105 per ten grams as against its previous close of Rs 30,215 .

Similarly, silver benchmark delivery dropped by Rs 251 to Rs 48,920 per Kg.

Gold price in overseas markets, which normally set price trend on the domestic front, traded in a narrow range and largely held on to overnight gains of nearly 1 percent as an upcoming Chinese holiday kept investors on the sidelines and their focus turned towards the US debt ceiling talks. 

Spot gold last quoted at USD 1,333.80 an ounce, down 0.02 percent, after gaining 0.8 percent in the previous session. 

In New York, gold for December delivery rose USD 19.90 to settle at USD 1,336.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the NYMEX yesterday.

Meanwhile, snapping a four-day losing streak, both precious metals gold and silver rebounded in Delhi bullion market on emergence of buying at existing lower levels to meet the coming festive season demand amid a better global trend.

While gold gained Rs 320 to Rs 30,545 per ten gram after losing Rs 585 in last four sessions, silver recovered by Rs 390 to Rs 49,330 per kg, snapping Rs 2,260 losses of four days.

Mumbai

Standard gold of 99.5 percent purity moved up by Rs 160 to close at Rs 29,980 per 10 gm from Tuesday's closing level of Rs 29,820 .

Pure gold of 99.9 percent purity also gained by Rs 160 to end at Rs 30,130 per 10 gm from Rs 29,970.

Similarly, silver ready (.999 fineness) escalated by Rs 50 to finish at Rs 49,715 per kg as compared to Rs 49,765 yesterday.

Delhi

Gold of 99.9 and 99.5 percent purity rebounded by Rs 320 each to Rs 30,545 and Rs 30,345 per ten gram, respectively, while sovereign held steady at Rs 25,000 per piece of eight gram in limited deals.

Silver ready rose by Rs 390 to Rs 49,330 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 690 to Rs 49,480 per kg. 

Silver coins, however, held steady at Rs 85,000 for buying and Rs 86,000 for selling of 100 pieces. 

Futures Trade (MCX)

At the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold for delivery in October declined by Rs 110 to Rs 30,105 per ten grams as against its previous close of Rs 30,215 .

Similarly, silver benchmark delivery dropped by Rs 251 to Rs 48,920 per Kg.

International markets

Spot gold last quoted at USD 1,333.80 an ounce, down 0.02 percent, after gaining 0.8 percent in the previous session. 

In New York, gold for December delivery rose USD 19.90 to settle at USD 1,336.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the NYMEX yesterday.

Gold ETF

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.07 percent, or 0.6 tonnes, to 909.59 tonnes on Monday. 

Here are the city wise gold and silver rates:

(Gold rates per 10 gm/Silver rates per Kg)

Mumbai

GOLD: 29,970 30,130 (+160) / SILVER: Rs 49,715 (+325) 50,040

Delhi

GOLD: Rs 30,545 (+320) / SILVER: Rs 49,330 (+90)

Chennai

GOLD: Rs 29,795 / SILVER: Rs 48,860

Kolkata

GOLD: Rs 30,570 / SILVER: Rs 48,900

Bangalore

GOLD: Rs 30,478/ SILVER: Rs 49,500

Hyderabad

GOLD: Rs 30,100 / SILVER: Rs 50,000

Courtesy: Zee News