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The Fed's December 2025 Rate Cut: A Lifeline for Global Markets, But a Mixed Bag for India. ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay  ------------------------------------- In a move widely anticipated yet anxiously awaited, the U.S. Federal Reserve on December 10, 2025, trimmed its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%–3.75%. This marks the third straight rate cut in 2025, following similar moves in September and October. The central bank is trying to steady a cooling labour market while inflation continues to moderate. Chair Jerome Powell called it a “balanced” decision, signalling progress on inflation but highlighting the need for employment stability. With U.S. unemployment at 4.5% and GDP growth revised up to 1.7% for 2025, the Fed continues to bet on a soft landing. However, projections now indicate only one more cut in 2026, suggesting a slower easing cycle than markets hoped. Global financial markets reacted quickly. The dollar weakened, equities gained, and ris...

Valor Estate Ltd (Formerly DB Realty Ltd): Q2FY26 Results Review. ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay  ------------------------------------- Introduction: Valor Estate Ltd (Rs.120.55) , rebranded from DB Realty Ltd in March 2024, has emerged from a prolonged restructuring phase with a cleaner balance sheet and sharper focus on core real estate operations. The recent demerger and separate listing of its hospitality arm (Advent Hotels International) in November 2025 has further streamlined the business.  Photo : Business Today. Against the backdrop of cooling inflation, anticipated global rate cuts, and improving liquidity conditions in India, the real estate sector is witnessing renewed investor interest, particularly in mid- and small-cap developers. Valor Estate is beginning to benefit from this favourable shift in sentiment. Q2FY26 Result Highlights:  🔹Revenue surged to ₹136.85 crore, up over 3,800% year-on-year from a low base of ₹3.48 crore, reflecting gradual normalisation and imp...

Vipul Ltd Q2FY26 Profit Turnaround Fuels Bullish Sector Tailwinds. ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay  ----------------------------------- Vipul Ltd (₹8.15), the Gurugram-based micro-cap real estate developer, re-entered investor spotlight with Q2FY26 results showing a sharp profitability swing. Even though the consolidated revenue dipped 49% YoY to ₹7.95 crore, reflecting ongoing execution challenges, net profit flipped to ₹7.24 crore from a ₹1.42 crore loss last year—largely via other income. EPS rose to ₹0.51, providing a quick sentiment boost amid rising sector optimism. While revenue weakness underscores operational hurdles versus NCR peers, this profit print adds financial stability as realty demand surges. Interestingly, Vipul Ltd holds premium Gurugram assets like Vipul World , Belmonte, and Trade Centre , positioning it for spillover gains in the NCR's mid-premium housing boom. In a bullish cycle—bolstered by robust buyer interest and infrastructure push—the stock often rides sector...

IREDA Ltd (Rs.135): Solid Q2FY26 Performance. Brief Introduction: Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd (IREDA) is a state-owned financial institution focused exclusively on funding India’s clean-energy transition. Established in 1987 and operating under the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, the company plays a pivotal role in financing solar, wind, bioenergy, small hydro and emerging green-tech projects.  Photo : The Economic Times. Over the last few years, IREDA has rapidly expanded its lending portfolio, becoming one of the fastest-growing renewable-energy financiers in Asia. Its business model is straightforward: provide loans, refinance green projects, and support India’s push toward a low-carbon economy.  With global interest in climate finance accelerating, IREDA is increasingly positioned as a strategic player in the region’s green-investment ecosystem. IREDA Q2 FY26 Results: A Strong Growth Quarter: 🔹Solid Rise in Revenues: IREDA reported revenue o...

December Crosswinds: RBI Pumps Liquidity as FIIs Pull the Plug — Can India Hold Its Nerve? ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay. ------------------------------ Synopsis : Indian markets are navigating a tricky December: RBI’s liquidity push collides with heavy FII selling, while global cues from the Fed and US tariff talks add fresh uncertainty. RBI’s December Policy: Liquidity Injection Amid Calm Inflation: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% in its December 2025 policy, marking the fourth consecutive cut this year. Inflation has cooled to 2% , giving the central bank room to act. Alongside the rate cut, the RBI announced a durable liquidity infusion of ₹1.45 lakh crore through open market operations and a USD/INR swap. The message is clear: the RBI wants to ensure smooth credit transmission and keep growth momentum intact, with the FY26 GDP forecast revised upward to 7.3% . FII Selling Pressure: Domestic Flows Cushion the Blow: Despite the RBI’s su...

Indian Stock Market: Short-Term Outlook   ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay  -------------------------------- The Indian market opened weak today (Sensex –474 pts, Nifty –169 pts), with broader indices (Midcap –1.08%, Smallcap –1.30%) underperforming. The softness reflects global caution ahead of tomorrow’s widely expected 25 bps Fed rate cut , along with lingering uncertainty around U.S.–China trade negotiations — both critical triggers for emerging-market risk appetite. Yet beneath this temporary volatility, multiple structural and liquidity-driven factors point toward a short-term bullish rebound , rather than a sustained correction. For global investors tracking the Indian stock market outlook , these underlying cues matter far more than today’s headline weakness. RBI’s Aggressive Liquidity Injection: The Reserve Bank will conduct a $5 billion (≈ ₹45,000 crore) 36-month USD/INR buy–sell swap on 16 December . This operation directly infuses durable liquidity into the banking system...

Equity Digest: Steel, Gold & Green Power — India’s Giants Set to Roar into 2026 Markets. ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay  ------------------------ NMDC Steel Limited (NSL): India’s youngest steel titan: NSL (Rs.39.76) operates a 3 MTPA integrated steel plant at Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, built at ~₹24,000 crore. Commissioned in 2023, it uses the blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace route and sources iron ore from Bailadila mines for steady supply. Product mix includes hot rolled coils, sheets, plates, and advanced grades like HSLA, API, and dual-phase steels. By FY25, NSL achieved over 2 million tonnes of hot metal (~60% utilization) with record daily outputs and a zero-discharge model supporting local industries. Bullish angle: Rapid scale-up with record outputs positions NSL as a breakout steel story in 2025. Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL): Legacy struggles, digital dreams: Established in 1986, MTNL (Rs.34.97) serves Delhi and Mumbai, with about 1.92 million subscribers ...

The Misuse of Manusmriti: A Convenient Weapon, Not an Honest Argument. ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay. ------------------ Why Do Critics with Obvious Animus Keep Wielding the Manusmriti? Synopsis : Mistaking a legal digest for revelation is not scholarship — it is caricature. ----------------- ---------------------------------- Some critics who wish to paint Hinduism in a permanently regressive colour reach for the same tired toolkit: a worn-out verse from Manusmriti , a selectively quoted line from Parāśara Smriti, or any dusty Dharmaśāstra that can be weaponised out of context. The tactic is transparent. The intellectual frailty is almost touching. Law Codes ≠ Revelation The Dharmaśāstras are not śruti. They are smṛti — human compositions crafted by learned but fully mortal jurists , written for specific kingdoms, specific eras, and specific administrative needs. They reflect the polemical voices, social anxieties, and ideological debates of their times, not eternal revelation. Their pur...

RBI’s 25 bps Repo Rate Cut to 5.25%: A Shot in the Arm for Rate-Sensitive Sectors ~ Sumon Mukhopadhyay. -------------------------------------- In a widely expected yet hugely significant move, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% — the lowest level in over a decade and a half . Coupled with a ₹1.5 lakh crore liquidity infusion and an upgraded FY26 GDP forecast of 7.3% (from 6.8%) , the Monetary Policy Committee has clearly signalled that it is comfortable prioritising growth while inflation remains remarkably subdued (now projected at just 2% for FY26) . For borrowers, cheaper loans and lower EMIs are on the horizon . For the stock market, the transmission of lower rates into corporate borrowing costs typically acts as a powerful catalyst — especially for highly leveraged, capital-intensive, and rate-sensitive sectors . Here’s how four key sectors — Steel, Construction & Infrastructure, Telecom, and Gems & Jewellery ...

Markets in Mayhem: From Wall Street Whiplash to WhatsApp Wisdom ~ Sumon Mukhopadhyay  ================ Introduction: If you thought stock markets were temples of rationality, you clearly haven’t logged into a WhatsApp group at 9:15 am IST. Global investors are panicking over interest rate whispers in Washington, while Indian retail traders are forwarding “sure-shot tips” faster than memes. Together, they form the perfect comedy of errors: a financial circus where volatility is the ringmaster, and WhatsApp investors are the clowns who think they’re running the show.   Act I: The Global Stage — Volatility as Performance Art: Wall Street has always been dramatic, but 2025 has turned it into a Broadway production. One day, the Dow Jones leaps like a caffeinated kangaroo; the next, it collapses like a soufflé in a thunderstorm.   🔹 Interest Rate Speculation: The Federal Reserve coughs, and markets faint. Traders interpret every syllable of Fed speeches as if they w...

The Great Indian Stock Market Stress Test: Mid & Small Caps in Freefall – – Where's the Government's Voice?  Call for Clarity. ~ By Sumon Mukhopadhyay   -------------- Synopsis : December 2025: India’s mid and small-cap stocks crash 12–16% from September highs, wiping ₹53.86 lakh crore in wealth. FPI outflows, Trump tariffs, and retail panic expose systemic rot. Why is Delhi silent?  Introduction : In the sweltering heat of India's economic ambitions, the stock market was supposed to be the cool oasis, a symbol of Viksit Bharat , where retail investors, armed with apps and dreams, could ride the tiger of growth. But as December 2025 unfolds, that tiger has turned feral. Mid and small-cap stocks, the darlings of the post-pandemic rally, are in a brutal correction, shedding 12-16% from their September peaks. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices have plunged, with some multibaggers cratering 20-43% in recent months. Billions in market cap evaporated, Rs 53....

NMDC Steel Ltd (Rs.41.87): A Turnaround Story Gathers Momentum as Nagarnar Plant Delivers Breakthroughs. ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay. ------------------------------------------------ India’s steel sector has no shortage of heavyweights, but few names have staged as dramatic a comeback in 2025 as NMDC Steel Ltd .  Spun off from NMDC, the country’s largest iron ore producer, the company has spent the last year sharpening its operations, scaling production, and proving that the Nagarnar integrated steel plant is more than ready to enter India’s big league. Now, with two back-to-back strong quarters, production records tumbling, and investors rediscovering confidence in the counter, NMDC Steel’s turnaround story is entering an exciting new phase.  The stock of NMDC Steel Ltd was recommended several times on SumanSpeaks and this is just a follow - on article; for those who are either still holding the scrip or are contemplating to take fresh positions. Q2FY26: Revenue Doubles, Losses ...