SumanSpeaks: The Information Super Highway

Tit - bits The scrip of Titan Company Ltd is up 1.29% to 1194.50. Soon this rally is expected to spread to Photo : Financial Express other counters in the same space.  It is pertinent to mention here that Indian jewellery demand during Q2FY20 was at 101.6 tonnes, almost a third lower, YoY due to weaker consumer sentiments. There was a decline of nearly 51% in Indian bullion imports on QoQ basis -- a clear case of a cut in Gold import duty to around 6 - 8% from the current 12.50%. While, the commerce minister, Piyush Goel has been requesting the FMO since some time, to cut the gold import duty to 6%, the jewelry association wants it be 5%. If Nirmala Sitaraman, considers their cases, then we will see a huge rally in the Jewellery stocks. My favourites : Titan Co Ltd (Rs.1179.25), TBZ Ltd (Rs. 36.50) and PC Jewelers Ltd (Rs.22.35). P C Jewelers Ltd (Rs.22.35): - At the end of FY19, 4,000 designs (15,000+ products) from 60 showrooms across 15 states, were made ava...

Tit - bits The domestic benchmark indices trimmed losses Photo : The Street  after hitting fresh intraday low in afternoon trade. The NSE Nifty50 was seen trading at 12,036.25 down 101.35 points (-0.77%), after the rise of deaths due to coronavirus (SERS and/or MERS) and Kerala reporting the 1st confirmed case. However, if we do a bit of internet search then we would find that this is somewhat common in China and Middle East -- the new name Coronavirus seems to have created the confusion and hence the obnoxious commotion, surrounding its name.. The traders are suggested to not to panic before the union budget to be presented on 1 February 2020. The Nifty is likely to recover from the current levels -- bullish outlook to continue especially after Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) projected India's FY20 GDP Growth Rate at 5%. FICCI on Wednesday said that its Economic Outlook Survey has projected the country's annual GDP growth rate at 5%. Th...

Tit - bits The US Stocks soared on Tuesday post the PCJ showroom in Varanasi  market's biggest sell-off in more than three months, as investors grapple with lingering fears over a possible coronavirus epidemic.  Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 187.05 points, or 0.7%, to 28,722.85, snapping a five-day losing streak. The S&P 500 climbed 1% to 3,276.24 while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.4% to 9,269.68. At its peak of the day, the Dow was up more than 280 points.  I had mentioned in my earlier post that it would be humorous to think that markets will go for a prolonged bouts of selling,  following the news of coronavirus outbreak.  Most of the major European markets also closed in the green yesterday. Today,  Nifty is expected a gap up opening of at least 20 points.  #Those who have bought the shares of P  C Photo : Live Mint Jewelers Ltd (Rs.22.85), the 2nd largest listed Jewelry company in India, should continue to...

Tit - bits #The key domestic benchmarks snapped two-day Photo : Zee Business   rising streak amid negative global cues and closed in the red.  Shares of banks and metal companies were at the receiving end of selling pressure.  The BSE S&P Sensex crashed 458.07 points or 1.10% to 41,155.12, while the Nifty50 index lost 129.25 points or 1.06% to close at 12,119. However, the broader market was better placed. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell a mere 0.40% while the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.03%. Hence,  amidst all these Hullabollo of about the fast-spreading coronavirus, which started in the China's Wuhan city, you have known where the butter has been kept -- you only need an expert hand to pick up from that place, isn't?. Apart from the coronavirus scare the traders also turned cautious ahead of the Union Budget on Saturday, after a news report appeared in ET,  stating: "If the budget is convincing, the markers could come crashing down". The...

Tit - bits # National Fertiliser Ltd recommended at Rs.27.10 today made a high of Rs.31.40 today and is now trading at Rs.30.75. Traders are suggested to hold with a SL at Rs.29.70. #The stock of Radio City (Music Broadcast)  today made a high of Rs.29.90 and is now seen at Rs.28.80. The non risk taking investors are suggested to book some Profits. #Buy the scrip of Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd ( BHEL) at around  Rs.44.50, T: Rs.48/52, SL: Rs.43.50. At the end of October, 2019, there were media reports that the rokerage firm CLSA upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Sell' owing to the benefits that the company could reap due to government's stake sale. BHEL is one of India’s largest engineering and manufacturing enterprises in the energy and infrastructure sectors and a leading power equipment manufacturer globally. BHEL serves the core sectors of the economy and provides a comprehensive portfolio of products, systems and services to customers in p...

Tit - bits   #Yesterday's recommendation Jindal Steel and Power Ltd at around Rs.180.50, today touched Rs. 186.35 intraday. The targets are intact, however if you wish to book some profits you can do and hold the rest with a SL at Rs. 177.  Photo : Dare2cpete.com. #The stock Reliance Capital Ltd (Rs.9.90) is testing the intermediate lows made some time back and is consolidating around the current ranges.  This is a high risk high gain stock. Today also the trading volume is huge (82 lakhs).  Since,  the company is taking measures to reduce the debt,  we can look for higher prices in the coming days. Anil Ambani had been trying to reduce the debt of the company through all possible techniques.  If you remember in April last year he approached elder brother Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries and Piramal Group, offering 49% in the business. The downside of the scrip is limited while considering its book value of Rs.300 - plus and the backing...

Reliance Capital Ltd: Buy CMP: Rs.10.25 Target: Rs.17/19 Company Overview: Reliance Capital Ltd (RCL) is one of India`s leading and amongst most valuable financial services companies in the private sector. RCL in the initial years engaged in steady annuity yielding businesses such as leasing, bill discounting, and inter-corporate deposits.  Later thhe company diversified their business in the areas of portfolio investment, lending against securities, custodial services, money market operations, project finance advisory services, and investment banking. Presently the company is engaged in businesses like asset management, mutual funds, life and general insurance, private equity and proprietary investments, stock broking, depository services, distribution of financial products, consumer finance and other activities in the financial services space. The company operates through the following divisions Reliance Mutual Fund, Reliance Life Insurance Company Limited, ...

Tit - bits # Music Broadcast  (Radio City) Ltd  moved to Rs. 28.30, intraday. Book part profit and hold with a SL: Rs.27.60. #Buy Jindal Steel and Power Ltd  at around Photo: UIhere Rs.180.50, for short term targets of Rs.192/197, SL: Rs.177. The company's domestic production of crude steel and related products for the quarter ended Dec. 31 stood at 1.61 million tonne, up 22% from the year ago period. The scrip is trading above its 50D, 100D, 200D, Exponential moving averages,  indicating a Bullish Trend. #Now the Indian markets are trading in the Green. Sensex is at 41,224.46, up 109.08 points  (+0.27%); while the Nifty is seen at 12,137.50 up 30.60 points (+0.25%). Last time,  I checked,  I saw SGX Nifty was also up by 20 points. With Asian Markets trading mixed and NASDAQ up marginally,  we can expect the pre budget RALLY to gather steam as the day progressed. # Strides Pharma Science Ltd today touched Rs.415. Book some prof...

Tit - bits #Around 12.48 pm, the BSE Sensex was trading at 41,217.99 down 111.09 points (-0.26%), while the Nifty was seen at 12,130.35 down 37.25 points (-0.32%). However, most of the Asian Markets are trading in the green -- we can't remain in isolation. Hence, I'm expecting the markets to close in the green today.  # Strides Pharma Science Ltd (Rs.396 90) , today Corona Virus  has killed 9 in China so far. This bit of information though raises concern of the outbreak of an epidemic, depressing consumer sentiment and spending, affecting the tourism as well as travel and transport related business; but is positive for all the parma companies, who are into manufacturing and selling of anti Virals/Bacterials. Keep accumulating during market dips. Photo : Moneycontrol.com made an intraday high of Rs.399.40 in the NSE There is news that #The stock of Music Broadcast Ltd (Radio C ity; CMP:  Rs.27),  is consolidating around the current current ranges...

National Fertilizers Ltd : Buy   CMP: Rs.28.80 Targets: Rs.37/41 The Ramagundam Fertilisers Ltd (FCL)  is a joint venture with National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) holding 26% equity, Engineers India limited 26%, Fertilizer Corporation of India Limited 11%, government of Telangana 11 %, GAIL India limited 14.3 % and HTAS Consortium holding 11.7 % equity. NFL is reviving a closed urea plant at Ramagundam in a JV with EIL, FCIL and the state government at an estimated cost of Rs.5,920 crore. The plant is likely to get operational by 31st March,  2020.  Photo : Financial Express  Against Rs.5920  crore of investment by the entities,  maket cap of the National Fertilisers Ltd is only 1415.32 crore. This throws up a lot of space for rerating of the company's shares.  Since,  stock maket reacts in advance, we could see a sharp rise in the share price of NFL before the budget (and before the start of production I'm Ramagundam plant...

Fertiliser  Subsidy Backlog is likely to get reduced in CY20 Of the total budgetary allocation (Rs. 800 billion in the Union Budget for FY2019-20), GoI had released nearly 84% by the end of October 2019. Nirmala Sitaraman GoI needs to increase the budgetary allocation in the upcoming Union Budget for FY2020-21 to around Rs.100 billion in order to reduce the subsidy backlog. The total requirement of the fertiliser subsduy which stands at around ~Rs. 1250 billion. The increased budgetary allocation if continued for a couple of years will wipe out the subsidy backlog and pave the way for implementation of the true form of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) in the fertiliser sector. The outlook for fertiliser sales in the current rabi season remains healthy with DAP/NPK offtake expected to grow at a robust pace as there has been significant moderation in the retail prices Y-o-Y driven by a fall in the raw material prices. Urea demand is expected to remain stable as the o...

Tit - bits #The BSE Sensex is now seen at 41,425.75 or Photo : Seeking Alpha  down just 99.75  points (-0.25%) while NSE's Nifty is trading at 12,196.55 or down only 25.40 points (-0.23%). This is much improvement from the level when the Sensex nosedived 200 - points.  Market sentiment was affected by the fact that  International Monetary Fund (IMF) loweried India's growth forecast, apart from subdued quarterly results by key index constituents and negative global cues. However,  what the market missed is that IMF on 20 January also said global growth, estimated at 2.9% in 2019, is projected to increase to 3.3% in 2020 and inch up further to 3.4% in 2021 -- which means growth would continue though a tad below the estimates. This is positive for the BULLS.  For India too,  the outlook looks much better in CY2020 than for FY20, as per the IMF commentary, which said: India's growth is estimated at 4.8% in 2019, projected to improve to 5.8% ...

Advantage Fertilizer Companies: With better acreage in Rabi 2019-20 and strong input consumption, the analysts expect domestic agrochemical and fertiliser companies to benefit. Analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services expect agri input companies to deliver robust revenue growth in Q3FY20 on higher rabi sowing (7% Y-oY) and higher water availability (reservoir levels +52%/+41% above last year/10-year average) in the wake of good rainfall and a low base from last year. The brokerage firm expects fertilizer companies to come out with strong growth, driven by higher rabi sowing, and improved profitability due to falling raw material prices. According to Motilal Oswal Securities: the consumption of agrochemicals moderated in Kharif, but the outlook for Rabi remains encouraging. Therefore, the brokerage firm expects a strong 2HFY20 (off a low base in 2HFY19) for domestic fertilizer and agrochemical sector. Also,  the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) of subsidies, ...

Tit - bits #The Indian market soared to new high in the Photo : Moneycontrol.com week ended January 17 as the BSE Sensex climbed Mount 42,000 for the first time. Optimism over the upcoming Budget on February 1 and the ongoing Q3FY20 earnings season helped bulls maintain their sway on the Dalal Street. The BSE Sensex is now trading 41,770.01 down 73.19 points (-0.42%) while the Nifty is seen at 12,293.70 down 55.90 points (-0.47%), after kissing record high. This is a normal correction in the large cap space, after touching new levels.  However,  it is interesting to note that the rally finally seems to be getting broad-based as Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices managed to outperform the frontliners -- both indices eked out  4% gains in the week gone by, compared to the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 which gained 0.80% each.  Hence,  my suggestions would be to use the dips in the market, to enter good small and mid cap counters. I don't foresee a too deep fa...

-:Performance Chart of the last 2 months:- SAIL from Rs.37 to Rs.51 plus. Wockhardt Ltd from Rs.237 to Rs. 286 plus.  63 Moons Technologies from Rs.101 to Rs.125 Photo : Emptrack plus.  National Fertilisers Ltd f rom Rs.27.10 to Rs.32.40. Central Bank from Rs.17.50 to Rs. 26 plus.  Future Consumers Ltd from Rs.21/22 to Rs.26 plus.  United Bank of India from Rs.8.80 to Rs. 9.80. Texmaco Rail and Engineering Ltd from Rs.29.50/34 to Rs. 42 plus. Graphite India Ltd from Rs.112 to Rs.124 plus  and so on... You can join my profit sharing scheme or my premium information services (including Life Time Service) and stay ahead of others. For more details you can mail me at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com.

Tit - bits Photo : Slide Share #An Ahmedabad based financial weekly has given a buy on Music Broadcast Ltd (Rs.26.50), a Jagran Prakashan Group company.   With 10 titles across 13 states in 5 different languages and a total readership of 68 mn, Jagran is the largest print media group of the country. Radio City 91.1 FM (Music Broadcast Ltd)  is a subsidiary of Jagran Prakashan Ltd.  Radio City 91.1 FM - India's first & leading FM brand has been synonymous with the category since its inception in 2001. We can look for targets of the share price of Music Broadcast as Rs.37/39 by 27 January,  when the company's. Last week the media sector rose by 7% with TV8 Network climbing 24%. On last Friday in the BSE, the Percentage of Deliverable Quantity to Traded Quantity is a whooping 89.67%. #There was news in Live Mint on 15 January,  that the government of India planning to expand the ETF portfolio by including stocks of PSBs, public sector insur...

Tit - bits #Yesterday's BTST scrip of Graphite India Ltd reached the first target of Rs.320, as it made an intraday high of Rs.324.80. You can book some profits and hold the rest with the SL mentioned earlier.  #Buy the shares of Music Broadcast Ltd (Radio City)  at around Rs.27.50, for short term targets of Rs.37/39. There is a Bonus issue news  in the counter. Music Broadcast has net cash of ₹2.33b (Rs.233 Cr). This is fairly high as compared to its current market capitalization. Actually, Music Broadcast had debt of ₹156.3 million at the end of March 2019, a reduction from ₹499.10 million over a year. But on the other hand it also has ₹2.49 billion  in cash, leading to a ₹2.33 billion net cash position. Jagran Prakashan Ltd  (a great dividend yield stock; CMP: Rs.67.85) publishes the country's largest circulated newspaper, Dainik Jagran. It also owns Mid-day and Radio City. About Radio City Radio City, a part of Music Broadcast Limited (MBL)...

Tit - bits #The scrip of Graphite India Ltd  (Rs.313.50) was recommended yesterday in this blog as a BTST call. However, the short term traders can also,  play on it,  with targets of Rs.372/379.   The stock fell from a high of Rs.1100 plus made during 2018 - 19 period; after the government of India removed the anti dumping duty  on cheap Chinese graphite imports.  It is pertinent to mention here that the levy of anti-dumping duty and strong demand has pushed up domestic graphite electrode prices by over five times in the last three years to $15,000 a tonne, from $2,350 a tonne in June 2015. The rise in graphite prices has pushed up steel making cost by about ₹1,500-1,700 per tonne. However, Ravi Jhunjhunwala, Chairman and Managing Director, HEG, one of the largest graphite manufacturers in India, said aroud a couple of months back that the graphite prices are going up due to strong demand and not due to short-supply.  It is intere...

Tit bits #BTST - Buy Graphite India Ltd at around Rs. 312, T: Rs.320 - 328, SL: Rs.303.90. The positive development of steer sector has a direct bearing on this space. #The scrip of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd (Rs. 122) today hit its 2nd target of Rs. 121, as it touched Rs.125.40 intraday.  The traders are suggested to book complete profits and again reenter if it falls near Rs.117.

National Fertiliser Ltd (Rs.29.70): Buy  Short Term target s:Rs. 37/41.  Triggers : The company has a subsidy outstanding of around Rs.5000 crore as of 31st March, 2019. Interestingly, subsidy inflow has started from April,  2019, which will reduce the borrowings. Rs.5000 crore upholstery of the topline would definitely take the scrip to new levels,  The company achieved a record sales of  27 Lakh tonnes during the 1st half of the current fiscal.  The NDA government's Kissan Samman Nidhi scheme, would be indirectly positive for National Fertiliser Ltd.It has diversified into seeds and ageo chemical business. Interestingly, it was manufacturing and selling urea till 2014/15, but it is now into DAP,  NPK and MoP products.  It is investing Rs.1000 crore in energy saving schemes,  that are being implemented in all the company's five plants. The dividend yield of the shares of the company is Rs.6.90%, while the book value of th...

Tit - bits #As expected the scrip of National Fertilisers Ltd   (Rs.27.85) broke out of the current ranges and made an intraday high of Rs.28.40.   Meanwhile,  Vegetable inflation for December stood at 60.50% against 36% in November. If you remember, I had mentioned earlier how food inflation is positive for the fertilizer stocks. With Food inflation shooting over the roof, I'm expecting the scrip to make a new 52 - week high. Buy on every dip.  #Congratulations to those who invested in the scrip of Texmaco Rail and Engineering Ltd (Rs. 42.15) at around Rs.34 and then averaged when its price fell to around Rs.29. Those who have bought the scrip should book 50% of profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs. 37. #Today's BTST recommendations to Premium Members and to the clients of my Associate brokerage houses: Buy  Praj Industries Ltd at Rs. 116; T: Rs.119 - 124; SL: Rs.111.50. Buy PFC at Rs.124.50;  T: Rs.128 - 132; SL: R...

Tit - bits # A major explosion rocked an ammonia-urea plant factory of Brahmaputra Valley Fertilizer Corporation Limited (BVFCL) at Namrup in Assam's Dibrugarh district, few days back.  The explosion destroyed several machines and properties at the plant. According to the media reports, the plant could remain shut for several weeks for repair. This looks like positive for all fertilizer companies since it will choke supplies. Moreover,  National Fertilizers Ltd (Rs.26 85), has entered into North-Eastern states after making successful foray in Southern India. The company in a statement recently said that it has tied up with BVFCL,  the  Assam  based PSU, for marketing 40,000 tonnes of urea in North-Eastern states under the brand name "Kisan Urea". Besides,  BVFCL was not  able to produce even 2 lakh metric tonne for the current fiscal year due to plant issues.  So,  supply bottlenecks in the north east are likely to be exploited by N...