Resilient India — Unstoppable: Why the Bullish Trend Shows No Signs of Fading

While global markets wrestle with economic uncertainties, India stands tall as a beacon of resilience. A powerful confluence of strong fundamentals, fiscal prudence, and robust consumer demand is propelling India’s growth trajectory, keeping the bull story alive despite external headwinds. Photo: Lovepic.com.

Even though FIIs are selling Indian equities but I feel soon, the trend is likely to change as more clarity is emerging on the Tariff front from Donald Trump administration in the US.

Economic Momentum: A Bullish Underpinning:

India’s economy remains firmly on the growth path, with the National Statistical Office (NSO) projecting GDP growth at 6.4% for FY25, accelerating to 6.7% in the second half. This upswing is fueled by a resurgence in agriculture exports, rising rural wages, robust industrial production, and improved tax collections, according to a report by BNP Paribas.

Highlighting the resilience, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) witnessed a sharp rebound after a weak third quarter of CY24, while steel production, auto sales, and new orders gained significant traction.

Fiscal Discipline and Consumption Surge:

The Union Budget for FY25-26 further cemented the bull case, with the government targeting a 7.4% increase in capital expenditure (capex) while reducing subsidy allocations. The fiscal deficit is expected to decline to 4.4% of GDP by FY26, underscoring India’s commitment to fiscal consolidation.

Adding fuel to the consumption engine, the government has relaxed tax slabs under the New Tax Regime (NTR), boosting disposable incomes for nearly 30 million salaried individuals, with a maximum annual relief of ₹110,000 (USD 1,300). This additional liquidity is set to spur discretionary spending across sectors like automobiles, durables, healthcare, travel, and jewelry—all poised for substantial growth.

Market Indicators: Bullish Undertone Persists:

Technically, the Nifty spot closed at 22,795.90, holding firm within the 22,700–22,800 support zone. With an ADX of 23.90, DI of 16.69, and an RSI of 33.93, the market appears range-bound but resilient. The easing of food inflation and the possibility of FED rate cuts, following a slowdown in US business activity, further strengthens the bull case for Indian equities.

Additionally, the upcoming inclusion of Jio Financial and Zomato in the Nifty 50 index, replacing BPCL and Britannia Industries, reflects the evolving market landscape and growing investor confidence in India’s new-age economy.

Trade Resilience Amid Global Shifts:

While the US contemplates 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, India’s economic resilience shines through. Goldman Sachs estimates a minimal GDP impact of 0.1–0.3 percentage points under varying tariff scenarios, thanks to India’s diversified export basket and strong domestic demand.

Moreover, India’s bilateral goods trade surplus with the US has doubled over the past decade to $35 billion, representing 1% of India’s GDP in FY24. This resilience underscores India’s ability to navigate global trade challenges while sustaining its growth momentum.

Conclusion: The Bull Run Is About To Begun:

With strong economic fundamentals, prudent fiscal policies, and buoyant consumption, India's bull run remains unstoppable. While global economies grapple with uncertainties, India’s resilience, innovation-driven growth, and robust domestic demand continue to power its upward trajectory. For investors, the message is clear: The Indian bull is here to stay.