Rajesh Exports Ltd: A Golden Bet with a Lithium Spark? FY25/26 Outlook

Introduction: Rajesh Exports Ltd (Rs.185.59) – the world’s largest gold refiner with over 35% global market share – had made a bold leap into Lithium-ion battery manufacturing with a mega plant set to go live by FY25.

While gold prices continue their upward trajectory, India’s EV revolution is gaining momentum. 

We explore, why this ₹15,000Cr behemoth could transform into a double-barreled growth story with gold stability + lithium moonshot? 

Finally let’s decode to know why the scrip  is buzzing in the investors are list.  

Company Overview: The Twin Growth Engines:

💢Gold Juggernaut: 

• Dominates global refining with $25B+ annual revenue (90% from exports).
• 100+ retail outlets under SHUBH Jewellers, capitalizing on India’s ever-growing gold demand.
• Stable cash flow despite commodity price swings.

💢Lithium Leap: 

• Building India’s one of the largest Li-ion battery plant (5 GWh capacity, ₹3,000Cr investment).
• Targets India’s booming EV and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) markets.Targets EV/ESS markets.

💢SOP Expected (Tentative): Q4 FY25, with potential 10-15% market capture by 2030.

💢Valuation: It has a book value of Rs.526, cheaper than some of its peers (Titan: Rs.110), but growth hinges on lithium execution.  

💢Future Prospects (FY25/26): 

1️⃣ Gold Glitter: FY25 global gold demand may hit 5,000 tonnes (World Gold Council), fueled by central bank buying and India’s wedding/COVID-recovery demand.  

Infact, India’s wedding and festival seasons remain a steady revenue driver.

2️⃣ Lithium Liftoff:  

-India’s EV market to grow at 49% CAGR (FY23-26); govt’s FAME II and PLI schemes boost battery demand. 

3️⃣First-mover edge: 5 GWH plant could capture 10-15% of India’s 2030 Li-ion target (120 GWh).  

4️⃣Margin Magic: If Rajesh executes well, Li-ion margins (15-20%) could far outpace gold refining (2-3%).

Successful Lithium execution could spark re-rating toward high-growth segments.

Technical & Financial View

• Current Price: ₹186.05 (as of Jan 2025).
• 52 - Week Low: Recently hit, signaling possible bottom formation.
• Key Support Zones: ₹170-₹180; resistance near ₹220-₹240.
• Momentum Indicator: RSI nearing oversold, potential reversal ahead.
• Stock breakout above ₹220 for a bullish move.
• Debt-Free: Strong cash flows from gold operations reduce financial risk.
• Stable Margins: Gold business cushions early-stage lithium volatility.

💢Risks: The Fine Print:

 -  Execution Risk: Delays in Lithium SOP (Q4 FY25) could hit valuations.

 - Gold Volatility: Any sharp correction in gold prices may impact revenues.

 - EV Competition: Giants like Reliance, Tata, CATL are already in the race.

💢Why FY25/26?: Gold’s safe-haven demand peaks in uncertain times, while India’s EV inflection hits critical mass. Rajesh’s dual engines could fire – or backfire. 

💢Conclusion: Dual Engines, High-Stakes, High-Reward Play:

Rajesh Exports presents a rare investment cocktail – steady cash flows from gold paired with a high-growth, high-risk lithium moonshot. By FY26, success in Li-ion could redefine its valuation.

For investors seeking a value play with optionality, Rajesh could shine – but only if its lithium bet avoids the pitfall.

(Not financial advice. DYOR.)