Monday, February 10, 2020

Tit - bits
#Reliance Capital Ltd (Rs. 8.24) is now basically an insurance company which will face tough problem in securing business, after the withdrawal of exemptions. If you are still holding the shares of the company you should exit out of it in market rises,  as I see it falling below Rs.5.

#National Fertiliser Company Ltd (Rs.25.55) is a Mni Ratna PSU and hence I believe there will not be much problem with working capital requirements. The government has spoken of doubling of farmers' income by 2022 and this is not possible without the use of both artificial and bio fertilizers.
The FM has spoken of "Zero Budget Farming" in FY20 (last year) also.  If I may quote a report published in India Today,  on 5 July,  2019:
The finance minister announced a proposal of zero budget farming, which she said is like "going back to basics." Sitharaman said zero budget farming will help doubling the farming income in days to come. Zero budget farming is a set of farming methods that involve zero credit for growing agricultural produce and no use of chemical fertilizers.
After, that the sales of major fertiliser producers have not been affected much.
Let me quote another news clipping from Down-to-earth.org:
Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had mentioned zero-budget natural farming (ZBNF) in Union budget 2019-20. Since then it has grabbed media attention and generated heated debate. This led to discussions among stakeholders and some new announcement related to natural farming was expected in Budget 2020-21.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked about ZBNF at various forums including the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification’s fourteenth conference of parties in India in 2019. On the occasion of Independence Day 2019 too he appealed to farmers to reduce using chemical usage in farming.
Niti Aayog also supported the promotion of natural farming and asked various states to adopt ZBNF. The government think tank’s vice-chairperson Rajiv Kumar tweeted recently about Modi’s direction to make chemical-free agriculture a mass movement in the country and promote Indian natural farming systems at a mass scale.
Therefore, it was speculated that the Modi government might make some big announcement related to organic or natural farming in the budget poposed on February 1, 2020. But, despite the statements and support for promotion of natural farming and reduction of chemicals, the allocation for organic farming was miniscule and negligible.
India promotes organic and natural farming mainly through schemes like Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY), Organic Value Chain Development for North East Region and National Project on Organic Farming.
PKVY promotes organic farming through the adoption of organic village by cluster approach and a participatory guarantee system of certification. Its definition of ‘organic’ comprises all types of chemical-free farming, including ZBNF.
 The bottomline: This rhetoric of the FM and NARENDRA Modi has failed to provoke any positive response from the farming community and therefore can be junked like his other method of of removing black money,  through demonetisation. Accumulate the scrip of NFL in dips.

#The Nifty spot is now near 12100 and is trying to to conquer the 20D SMA and 50D SMA. On the daily candle chart a black candle has formed, however, on weekly charts we have witnessed a Bullish Piercing Line pattern with very long lower shadow, giving more ammunition to the Bulls @- a close above 12170 can take Nifty to new highs. 
However,  fall bellow 12046 could reverse the trend and the action would shift towards small and mid cap counters. 
Interestingly Mid-Cap and Small-Cap have started to outperform the Indices consistently in every fall and every rise -- MidCap100 and MidCap50 Indices are now within striking distance from their recent highs.
One should therefore, use every decline to buy good quality Mid and Smallcap counters. 
Any government that fails to deliver at least 7% growth in GDP on a sustainable basis for the next 10 years would be considered failing on the economic front. The economic credibility of the NaMo -- II government is at stake on this issue. 

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