HINDALCO Industries Ltd
CMP: Rs.125 (It is near its 5 2-week low price)
52-week High/Low: 224.64/Rs.111.25
Short Term Target: Rs.160
The Four Primary Triggers:
(i) It is an industry leader in aliminium and copper and hence is able to absord any slowdown in the sector, with better management. It has a low cost business model, superior product mix, a balanced and de-risked portfolio and has operational excellence. Company’s Copper production, both in India and Australia, has been impressive. Furthermore, the expansion of the Company’s Pinda mill in Brazil and global de-bottle-necking projects designed to increase capacity, have been growth propellers. The Hirakud Flat Rolled Products project is expected to get operation by Q1FY13. Almost all of the Company’s Greenfield projects are on course. Of these projects, two aluminum smelters and one large alumina refinery viz. Mahan Aluminium, Aditya Aluminium and Utkal Alumina are in advance stage of execution with a capital outlay of US $ 5 billion. When these projects, along with those which are currently on the drawing board, are commissioned, Hindalco Industries Ltd would be a 1.7 million ton aluminum company with a 6 million ton alumina refining capacity. Thus in all probability, the company is all set for a quantum growth leap, going forward--it hopes to become a 65 billion dollar Group by 2015. The company gets around 75% of its business from the Aluminium segment. Q3FY12, results reflect a strong performance in the Aluminium Business in India and at Novelis. The previously announced rolling mill expansion in Brazil and the recently announced expansion in Korea as well as strategic automotive expansion in North America are key focus areas in the near term to capitalize on future growth and solidify its position as the leading player in the global FRP industry. Over the next year, Novelis expects continued strong demand in its key product segment. Moreover any buoyancy in the Power Sector in India, will be positive for the companies like Hindalco Industries Ltd.
(ii) China, the world's largest importer and consumer of base metals, is seen re-exporting its copper stocks from the bonded warehouses at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, to ease LME backwardation. "Backwardation, is a sign of bullishness--it means that the spot market is tight with high demand and restricted supply. This hints at a bullish trend in base metals for the rest of the day. Also, in case of Aluminium, China continues to be the driving force behind the demand growth, growing at ~ 15-20% and contributing to over 35% of global aluminium demand. Moreover, India's domestic demand continued to be robust on the back of strong industrial growth, expected in the coming months, post cut in the repo rates. Strong growth in the end user segments such as automobiles, Industrial and infrastructure; and thrust on power sector growth, is expected to propel the future the aluminium demand. The aluminium prices are expected to remain buoyant even as inventory levels are highs. This is because of the tightness in the physical market, with most inventories tied up at various ware houses under financing deals.
(iii) Eurozone crisis is easing and this is giving strength to the Euro against the Dollar. This trend is expected to push dollar-denominated commodities such as base metals higher in the global market. The Global economy is continuing to recover after the unprecedented sharp fall in FY09. Strong demand from both emerging markets and developed markets on the back of increased Industrial activity is expected to fuel the demand for commodities in the coming days---the emerging markets will continue to be the torchbearer of this growth. In India inflationary pressures have receded to some extent, while fall in the crude oil prices off late has also ebbed some of concerns of rising fiscal deficit. Now with the RBI going all out for a cut in the Repo rate, it is expected that the the domestic environment will more or less be on the path of recovery. With a strong recovery in the US and EU the demand momentum is expected to remain strong for the Aluminium and Copper segments.
(iv) Alcoa Inc, the biggest US aluminum producer reported better than expected quarterly profit and reaffirmed global demand for aluminum to grow 7% in 2012. This augurs well for aluminium related companies like Hindalco Industries Ltd. Aluminium demand in India has been very strong in the
recent past growing at almost 14% CAGR. Unlike the western world the
primary demand driver for aluminium in India has been power sector which accounts for almost 48% demand. With government’s stated committed spending towards achieving 70,000 MW generation target, the spend on power infrastructure will be huge. As far as the other aluminium consuming sectors are concerned with growing urbanization the demand growth has picked up from packaging, automobile, construction (increased usage) electronics (cell phone, laptop bodies) etc.. The per capita consumption at ~1.2 kg is still abysmally low as compared with even China ~10 Kg and the western world~ 15-18 Kg. This offers significant potential demand upside. The Global demand outlook for FRP (Flat rolled products) is extremely bullish with rising demand from beverage cans; especially in the emerging markets, consumer electronics and automobile segment (with increased emphasis on weight reduction). Novelis is the global leader in this segment. The global refined copper demand is expected to increase by around 7% in CY2012. Moreover, it is expected that the long term demand for copper will continue to be strong on the back of infrastructural demand from India, China and moderate demand growth from the western world. China will continue to have lion’s share in the incremental growth and is expected to account for over 60% of incremental growth over next 5 years, thus accounting for around 44% of 2015 global estimated demand of ~ 24 Million tonnes. The long term fundamentals are strong and the copper consumption is expected to increase with renewed thrust on power sector reforms and urban housing. The copper consumption in India is relatively low. The per capita copper consumption stands at around 1.2 Kg as compared to 7Kgs in the US or even 3.6 Kgs in China and hence the growth potential is enormous.
The Company: Hindalco Industries Ltd is an industry leader in aluminium and copper. Hindalco Industries Limited, the metals flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group is the world's largest aluminium rolling company and one of the biggest producers of primary aluminium in Asia. Its copper smelter is the world’s largest custom smelter at a single location.
The acquisition of Novelis Inc. in 2007 positioned Hindalco Industries Ltd, among the top five aluminium majors worldwide and the largest vertically integrated aluminium company in India. Today it is a metal powerhouse with high-end rolling capabilities and a global footprint in 13 countries. It is a part of the Fortune 500 league.
Its aluminium units across the globe encompass the entire gamut of operations, from bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminium smelting to downstream rolling, extrusions, foils, along with captive power plants and coal mines.
The acquisition of Novelis Inc. in 2007 positioned Hindalco Industries Ltd, among the top five aluminium majors worldwide and the largest vertically integrated aluminium company in India. Today it is a metal powerhouse with high-end rolling capabilities and a global footprint in 13 countries. It is a part of the Fortune 500 league.
Its aluminium units across the globe encompass the entire gamut of operations, from bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminium smelting to downstream rolling, extrusions, foils, along with captive power plants and coal mines.
Its copper unit, Birla Copper, produces copper cathodes, continuous cast copper rods and other by-products, such as gold, silver and DAP fertilisers.
Its units are ISO 9001:2000, ISO 14001:2004 and OHSAS 18001 certified. Several units have gone a step further with an integrated management system (IMS), combining ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 into one business excellence model. It was accorded the Star Trading House status in India. Hindalco's aluminium metal is accepted for delivery under the High Grade Aluminium Contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Its copper quality standards are also internationally recognised and registered on the LME with Grade A accreditation.
Hindalco's major products include standard and speciality grade aluminas and hydrates, aluminium ingots, billets, wire rods, flat rolled products, extrusions and foil. The integrated facility at Renukoot houses an alumina refinery and an aluminium smelter, along with facilities for the production of semi-fabricated products, namely, redraw rods, flat rolled products and extrusions. The plant is backed by a co-generation power unit and a 742 MW captive power plant at Renusagar to ensure the continuous supply of power for smelter and other operations.
Its units are ISO 9001:2000, ISO 14001:2004 and OHSAS 18001 certified. Several units have gone a step further with an integrated management system (IMS), combining ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 into one business excellence model. It was accorded the Star Trading House status in India. Hindalco's aluminium metal is accepted for delivery under the High Grade Aluminium Contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Its copper quality standards are also internationally recognised and registered on the LME with Grade A accreditation.
Hindalco's major products include standard and speciality grade aluminas and hydrates, aluminium ingots, billets, wire rods, flat rolled products, extrusions and foil. The integrated facility at Renukoot houses an alumina refinery and an aluminium smelter, along with facilities for the production of semi-fabricated products, namely, redraw rods, flat rolled products and extrusions. The plant is backed by a co-generation power unit and a 742 MW captive power plant at Renusagar to ensure the continuous supply of power for smelter and other operations.
Its copper unit, Birla Copper upholds its reputation for quality copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods. Birla Copper, Hindalco’s copper unit, is located at Dahej in Gujarat, India. The unit has the unique distinction of being the largest single-location copper smelter in the world. The smelter uses state-of-the-art technology and has a capacity of 500,000 tpa.
Birla Copper also produces precious metals, fertilisers and sulphuric and phosphoric acid. The unit has captive power plants for continuous power generation and a captive jetty to facilitate logistics and transportation.
Birla Copper upholds its longstanding reputation for quality copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods by assuring its management processes meet the highest standards. It has acquired certifications such as ISO-9001:2000 (Quality Management Systems), ISO-14001:2004 (Environmental Management System) and OHSAS-18001:2007 (Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems).
Mines:
Hindalco acquired two Australian copper mines, Nifty and Mt. Gordon, in 2003. The Birla Nifty copper mine consists of an underground mine, heap leach pads and a solvent extraction and electrowinning (SXEW) processing plant, which produces copper cathode.
Both Nifty and Mt. Gordon have a long-term life of mine off-take agreement with Hindalco for supply of copper concentrate to the copper smelter at Dahej.
Expansion:
(i) Brownfield Expansions:
Birla Copper also produces precious metals, fertilisers and sulphuric and phosphoric acid. The unit has captive power plants for continuous power generation and a captive jetty to facilitate logistics and transportation.
Birla Copper upholds its longstanding reputation for quality copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods by assuring its management processes meet the highest standards. It has acquired certifications such as ISO-9001:2000 (Quality Management Systems), ISO-14001:2004 (Environmental Management System) and OHSAS-18001:2007 (Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems).
Mines:
Hindalco acquired two Australian copper mines, Nifty and Mt. Gordon, in 2003. The Birla Nifty copper mine consists of an underground mine, heap leach pads and a solvent extraction and electrowinning (SXEW) processing plant, which produces copper cathode.
Both Nifty and Mt. Gordon have a long-term life of mine off-take agreement with Hindalco for supply of copper concentrate to the copper smelter at Dahej.
Expansion:
(i) Brownfield Expansions:
- Hirakud Smelter Expansion: The Smelter expansion at Hirakud from 155 KTPA to 161 KTPA was completed in Q4 FY11. A further expansion from 161 KTPA to 213 KTPA, along with a 100 MW Captive Power Plant [CPP] will be completed in early 2012.
- The next phase of expansion of the Smelter from the proposed 213 KTPA to 360 KTPA, with a corresponding increase in CPP capacity from 467.5 MW to 967.5 MW is under evaluation. The environmental clearance for this is already in place.
- Hirakud Flat Rolled Products [FRP] Project: This project is underway for the transfer of all key equipment for FRP production from Novelis plant at Rogerstone, UK to Hirakud. In addition, orders have also been placed for related and balancing equipment. This will enable the Company to produce a wide range of superior engineering products, including can-body stock, for the local and export markets. The project is slated for completion in Q1FY13. Around 2,000 people are working at the site on civil and structural jobs.
- Belgaum Special Alumina: The Specials Plant expansion from 189 KTPA to 301 KTPA, with a coal based co-generation power plant. Natural gas adaptation for its rotary kilns is being evaluated.
- Novelis - South America: Pinda is the largest aluminium rolling and recycling facility in South America in terms of shipments and the only facility in South America capable of producing can-body and end-stock. Pinda recycles primarily used aluminium beverage cans and is engaged in tolling recycled metal for its customers. In response to the growing demand for the company’s products in South America, a plan to invest nearly USD 300 million to expand the aluminium rolling operations in Pinda was announced earlier. This expansion will increase the plant’s capacity by more than 50% to approximately 600 Kt of aluminium sheet per year. The project is expected to come on stream by late 2012.
- Novelis - Asia: In May 2011, Novelis announced plans to invest approximately USD 400 million to expand the aluminium rolling and recycling operations in South Korea, in response to the growing demand in Asia and the Middle East. The rolling expansion, which will include investments in both hot rolling and cold rolling operations, will increase aluminium sheet capacity in Asia to 1,000 Kt annually. As a response to the projected market growth in the region, this move is designed to rapidly bring to market, high quality aluminium rolling capacity, aligned with the projected needs of a growing customer base. The new capacity is expected to be commissioned in financial year 2013. The expansion will increase Novelis’ aluminium sheet capacity in Asia by more than 50% and will also include the construction of a state-of-the-art recycling centre for used aluminium beverage cans and a casting operation.
- Utkal Alumina International Ltd (UAIL): The construction of the alumina refinery, along with a 90 MW captive co-generation plant is in progress at UAIL, a 100% subsidiary of the Company. The output from UAIL would be sufficient to feed alumina to the Mahan and the Aditya Smelters. Contractors have mobilised more than 9,000 people at the site. The erection of major equipment like boilers, evaporators and turbines has begun. The project performance review of some of the contracts indicates slippage in performance of certain contractors, mainly in the area of civil work. In order to avoid further slippage, some of the non-performing contractors have been suitably replaced with new contractors, who have better performance track record. Internal accruals and free cash flows are adequate to meet the probable overruns which are being estimated. Despite these overruns, the project capital cost continues to be favourably benchmarked with the capital cost of other comparable global projects. The operating cost of this project will continue to be in the lowest cost quartile of the global cost of production and will continue to be
value accretive. - Mahan Aluminium Project: This 359 KTPA Aluminium Smelter, along with 900 MW CPP, is coming up in Bargwan, Madhya Pradesh. Contractors have mobilised about 16,000 people at the site. Engineering for the project is complete and major equipment for both the Smelter and the CPP have started arriving at the site. Civil foundation, fabrication and erection of structures have progressed substantially at both the Smelter and the CPP.
The coal requirement for the CPP will be primarily met from Mahan Coal Block, being developed by Mahan Coal Limited (MCL), a joint venture between the Company and Essar Power Limited. Mahan Coal Block was included under the category of ‘No Go’ area. An Empowered Group of Ministers has been set up to resolve all environment and forest issues for coal mines under “No Go” areas. The Company is in the process of finalising the arrangements for mining to fast-track the development of the mines, once the final forest clearance is received. As an interim measure, the Company has applied to the Ministry of Coal for temporary supply of coal (tapering linkage) to the Mahan CPP, until the Company’s own mines commence operating at full capacity. - The Aditya Aluminium project: A 359 ktpa, Aluminium smelter along with a 900 MW captive power plant, identical to the Mahan Project, is coming up in Orissa. The project has received stage 2 forest clearance in January 2011 and the construction work has started. Now the project is slated for completion in 2013.
- The Aditya Refinery Project: A 1.5 Million TPA Alumina Refinery along with a 90 MW cogen plant, replica of the Utkal Alumina refinery is coming up in Orissa. The preliminary cost estimate is in the order of magnitude is Rs. 6,000 Crores without financing cost. It is planned for commissioning in FY14.
- The Jharkhand Aluminium project: A 359 ktpa, Aluminium smelter along with a 900 MW captive power plant is coming up in Sonahatu, Jharkhand. The land acquisition process has already begun. The process for
obtaining environmental clearance has begun. For this project the Tubed coal mine has been allotted to the project jointly with Tata Power. These projects will significantly enhance the scale of operations of the company and will further improve the cost competitiveness of the company firmly establishing it as one of the lowest cost global alumina and aluminium producers.
