Monday, March 05, 2012

Market Mantra: The UP Election Drama Over, now Buy
As expected, in Saturday’s special trading session, the market moved in a narrow range and Nifty closed almost flat at 5359. Shares however, outperformed at individual capability. Hotel, Oil PSU and ADAG group shares witnessed strong buying interest.
My view now is that volatility is expected to rule the roost, till the UP election results and budget details comes out in public. However, the shares may continue to outperform the market in their individual capability. Strong correction from 5600 level was showing profit taking at higher levels, but smart bounce back from 5300 shows buying interest at lower level. Market is witnessing nerve shaking volatility and same is expected to continue between these two levels in days ahead, untill the dust gets setteled. The investors are requested to focus on Real Estate, Construction, Banks and Textile Sectors (due to recent circular on ban of Cotton exports). The crude oil prices are expected to either come down or remain stagnant in view of the aggregate Chinese demand going down. Also,  supplies from OPEC are on the higher side and even the Russian supplies are flooding the market. The Tensions between Iran and US is likely to cool off in the coming days and this is expected to give further blow the Crude Oil Bulls. Thus on the slightly longer time perspective, I am bearish on the Crude Oil front, which means I am BULLISH on the equities.  

Now looking from other angle it is found that in the first half the GDP saw a growth of 7.3%. So to match up the yearly projected rate of growth, the economy has to grow at least at a rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter. 
A number of economists have already forecasted a tepid growth, for another couple of quarters, unless the RBI acts fast, to give some lift to the sagging fundamentals of the economy, instead of always finding some issues to hide behind that, like “High crude Oil prices” as of now. 
Thus RBI has little option but to cut both the CRR and Repo rates in the next policy meet scheduled in this month. This upholds my bullish view on Banks and Real Estate stocks. 
Investors should buy Banks, Real Estate, Construction and Textile Counters.
RESISTANCE: 5390 & 5425
SUPPORT: 5300 & 5270
Asian stocks fell, halting a run of 11 weekly gains, as China said it’s targeting the slowest growth since 2004 and the nation’s service industries contracted. The yen rose against all its major peers, while oil advanced. This de-growth in China is expected to keep the Crude Oil prices in check.
Fundamentally speaking the UP election results due tomorrow can make markets nervous. Exit poll results are hinting that a scenario where by SP will emerge as single largest party but who supports and forms the government there would be the thing we need to watch out for...I have already spoken about my positive view on ADA Group stocks, which are showing some movements. However, one should not go all out in these stocks till the final results are out, as many a times, the exit poll results turns out to be merely an entertainment instrument or hoax.
Investors can buy Railway based counter before the Railway Budget and the two stocks I have mentioned are Kalindi Rail Nirman at around Rs.118-119, T--Rs.131-135 and Kernex Micro at around Rs.92-93, T--Rs.95-97 (swing traders should book profits here)---106.
Stocks to watch out for in today’s trading session are:
(+VE) EIH: RELIANCE INDUSTRIES through its investment arm Reliance Industries Investment and Holding has raised its stake in hospitality major to 18.53% from 14.80%, by paying 90 rupees per share in a bulk deal.
(-VE) KINGFISHER AIRLINES: Service tax department freezes seven more bank accounts of the company. Aviation Minister Ajit Singh warns the airlines that its licences can be suspended if Directorate General of Civil Aviation raises safety issue or if Airport Authority of India refuses more credit to the airline.
(-VE) PATNI COMPUTER SYSTEMS: Parent iGate's plan to delist Patni Computer, hits regulatory hurdle as SEBI wants it to meet 25% public shareholding provision. This may require iGate to lower its stake in Patni to 75% from 83%.
I  have already given today's morning call: Buy Central Bank at Rs.102, T--Rs.105-106, SL--Rs.98. Apart from the rate cut, there is also another story in Central Bank, which I discussed earlier.
Keep accumulating, KSK Energy Ventures Ltd on all declines, as the company is expected to do exceptionally good in 2012--2014 period.
India has banned cotton exports with immediate effect, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) said on Monday without providing a reason. Therefore it is positive for the Sintex Industries Ltd (CMP: Rs.78.75) and most other textile counters. I had earlier mentioned a bout the name of Alok Industries Ltd and SEL Manufacturing Ltd too. 
Jai Balaji Industries Ltd is doing well today in view of.....(FOR THE PAID SERVICE MEMBERS ONLY).  Some positive news are expected to come from the Country Club Ltd, within the next few weeks.Therefore, accumulate the stocks of Country Club Ltd too around Rs.6.95-7. Investors can also buy S Kumar's Nationwide Ltd at around Rs.34-35, T--Rs.39, SL--Rs.32.

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