Thursday, January 19, 2012

Market Mantra
[Updated]
It was in line with expectations yesterday, as the bulls took a natural breather, after a long run. This kind of profit booking as good for any market to form a base to move to the  next higher levels as fresh money enters the markets which were generally looking for opportunities to enter.
Market remains strong above 4900 level and yesterday's small profit booking has given the bulls to come back with vengeance once again. Today, after crossing the psychological barrier of 5000, the chances of Nifty breaking up the 5200 mark on the upside looks more pronounced. Thus my first target of 5000 has been achieved. Strong pullback from 4700 level supported by sustained trade above resistance area of 4800 shows end of intermediate correction and beginning of short term uptrend in the market. The traders are once again suggested to exit your short positions and be long on Nifty. Those who had done that in my earlier call must be laughing their way to the bank, as the Nifty crossed 5000. Therefore, this is not the time to sell shares but accumulate with 3-6 months perspective.
The Price of the Paid Services is going to increase from 1st February, 2012. Hence, those who want to renew or take fresh subscriptions, should do it before  this stipulated date. Also, some seats are open for Profit PMS; if anyone has a portfolio size of more than Rs.5 lakhs (for NRIs it is 15 lakhs), they can send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s@gmail.com. Those who have sent me mails for fresh subscription, should give me a couple of days to respond.
US markets closed up by almost 1% on the back of better than estimated results from banks like Goldman Sachs & Wells fargo. Apart from better earnings Euro also supported the upmove on news that IMF will fund $ 500 Mn to aid EU.
Asian stocks rose for a third day after confidence among U.S. home-builders beat estimates and the International Monetary Fund said it plans to expand its lending resources to counter Europe’s debt crisis.
Stocks to watch out for in today’s trading session are:
• (+VE) DEN NETWORKS: Reliance Strategic Investments, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries, has bought 1.14% stake in the company.
• (+VE) KINGFISHER AIRLINES: Is in talk with Hong Kong's SC Lowy, which may invest around $280 mln in the airline.
• (-VE) BHARTI AIRTEL: Says it has not flouted any norms pertaining to tax on payments made to international operators and will take legal action on a 10.67-bln-rupee demand notice sent by the income tax department.
Those who could buy Allied Digital Services Ltd (ADSL) yesterday, can try today at around Rs.27.70--28, the stock is will give fantastic returns going forward. The company has ventured into new line of business where the margins are much higher and the competition is much less.Going forward, with change in customer's demand more towards value added services for their business, ADSL is in process of transforming itself in terms of systems & processes, people and the business mix targeted to address new opportunities & challenges, and expects its FY13 Revenues growth & EBITDA margins to improve due its initiative to shift its focus with changing market environment. It had also last year announced a share Buy Back plan to boost investors' confidence. Also, it has been observed that the core business of IMS/MSS is intact with the JV with e-Cop being a case in point. Company also indicated of no further write-offs in the foreseeable future. Moreover, growth expectations have now been set right with a more achievable guidance and pragmatic commentary. Last year an IT survey was misconstrued as IT Raid and hence there was minimal impact. To elaborate on the issue, it is learnt from the sources that an income tax team, as a part of its routine survey, had visited the official premises of ADSL in 2011, to check its books of accounts on concern of expenditure manipulation. According to the management, this survey, misconstrued as ‘raid’, concluded the same day with no prima facie evidence and no documents seized. Even the Company later re-assured of minimal impact of the IT Survey on its financials. Hence I am expecting it to cross Rs.45--50 in the next 3-4 months time frame. Also, if anyone has still not averaged the scrip having purchased at higher price, they should to it immediately.
Those who are holding  B F Utilities Ltd can continue to hold as the scrip is showing strong momentum on the upside. With the Crude Oil threatening to cross $100 per  barrel this scrip offers great opportunity for the bulls. I have now given a fresh target of Rs.425--450 for the scrip.
Those who are holding Northgate Technologies Ltd at higher levels should complete the accumulation of the scrip, as the company is going to finish the amalgamation of its entities within the next 3 months time frame, according to my close sources. This restructuring of the company's subsidiaries is positive for the shareholders. The scrip is trading now at Rs.8.80 and it gives enough room to make good money in the next 6 months time frame if averaged at the CMP.
Today a brokerage house has recommended a buy on INFOTECH ENTERPRISES Ltd at the CMP of Rs.125, T--Rs.163.  Meanwhile the company is planning to set up a 700-seater development centre at a special economic zone in Hyderabad by March.
Yesterday, a brokerage house recommended HDIL for a target of Rs.77. Those who are holding the scrip should look at the opportunities to average. 

 Investors can start accumulating IFCI Ltd around Rs.25.5--26, for a target of Rs.32. The scrip has long consolidated in the price range of Rs.24.5--25.
I had mentioned in my earlier mails that the generally after a huge market crash, some form of sanity for the bulls generally starts from the 4th year. Therefore, I hoping that 2012 would be much better than 2011 and it would herald the beginning of a new BULL phase in Dalal Street. We  have already decoupled from the rest of the world, having performed the worst against the world average. Now it is our turn, but then we need  a pragmatic government at the centre to take stock of the things and act fast.

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