Monday, June 06, 2011

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:
Glory Polyfilms Ltd hit another buyer freeze today in the opening trade before cooling down a bit at the end due to profit booking. The company has come up with better than expected results---a scum, had fore-casted in MMB that it would come up with a huge loss of Rs.19.10 Cr which lead to the crash of the share price. The fools started selling seeing this stray news now many of these are probably entering the counter. 
Satyam Computer Services Ltd recommended at Rs.77-78, touched Rs.93.40 today, before cooling down a bit due to a slightly negative news that the company has sought more time to build IT/ITES special zone in Hyderabad.
In the Sunday Report, sent to the Paid Groups, I asked all to start accumulating Vision Corporation Ltd at Rs.1.80, for some specific targets--the stock hit 2nd consecutive buyer freeze today. Vision Technology Ltd  has been hitting the circuits since the last few days. 

After trading on a feeble note for most part of the session, domestic benchmarks managed to negotiate a close in the green terrain, breaking the two session downtrend, as investors showed renewed buying interests in information technology, healthcare and capital goods counters. Despite settling with only a quarter percent gains, the frontline indices managed to outclass all the peers in Asia and Europe by quite a margin. The global markets continued to exhibit somber trends as investors at large remained cautious on worries over global economic recovery prospects and also ahead of the Fed chief Ben Bernanke's speech later in the day. Back home, domestic concerns such as a possible hike in fuel prices in the near term and the ongoing agitation against corruption launched by yoga guru Baba Ramdev also weighed on sentiment to some extent. The marketmen too lacked conviction to open fresh long positions amid the gloomy global picture but bulls came out of their shelter in the dying hours and opted to fish for bottomed stocks. The banking shares too witnessed some position build up in the session amid the Reserve Bank of India deputy governor KC Chakrabarty's statement that banks may use the newly introduced marginal standing facility (MSF) in mid-June when liquidity is expected to tighten sharply owing to advance tax payments. Back home, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, added around a quarter percent point and settled just below the crucial 5,550 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex gained around fifty points and closed above the psychological 18,400 mark. By the end of trade, the broader markets settled on a flat note and were comfortably outclassed by their larger peers. The midcap index eased 0.25% while the smallcap index added 0.17%. On the sectoral front, the IT counter remained the top gainer in the space as it went home with 0.81% as bellwethers like TCS and Infosys climbed by 1.01% and 0.89% respectively. Another counter that remained amid the thick of things was Healthcare which rose by 0.71% as Cipla and Ranbaxy rose by 2.25% and 1.18% respectively. On the other hand, the metal pack languished at the bottom of the table with 0.68% losses after majors like Hindalco Inds and Jindal Steel deposed 1.61%, and 0.97% respectively.
On the global front, most of the Asian markets remained closed today and those which were open settled with notable losses. The Japanese benchmark remained top laggard in the session plunging by a percent point jittered by the buzz that Tokyo Electric Power Co could go through a court-led rehabilitation, fanned bearish sentiment in the wake of soft US data. The European equities too traded with a negative bias as France's CAC declined 0.61%, and Germany's DAX eased 0.03% and London's FTSE 100 edged down 0.02%. On the other hand, the screen trading for US index futures indicated that the Dow could open on a flat note.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a negative opening in line to the Asian peers that largely remained influenced by Wall Street's sharp cut following the release of US May nonfarm payrolls data which showed the weakest reading since September coupled with the unexpected rise in US jobless rate to 9.1 percent. The frontline indices soon slipped below the psychological 5,500 and 18,350 levels on profit booking in rate sensitive counters. After gyrating in a tight range for around an hour, the indices soon drifted to lowest levels in the session. However, the short covering rally led by IT, healthcare and capital goods stocks in the early afternoon session brought the key indices in close proximity with previous closing levels. Thereafter the buying interests gathered further momentum in dying hours, helping the benchmarks to claw back into the green terrain by the end of trade and snap the two session downtrend, though with marginal gains around the psychological 5,550 and 18,400 levels. The markets consolidated on lower market volumes of over Rs 0.84 lakh crore on the initial day of the new week while the turnover for NSE F&O segment also remained on the lower side compared to Friday at over 0.74 lakh crore. Market breadth remained negative as there were 1326 shares on the gaining side against 1461 shares on the losing side while 116 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex rose by 43.63 points or 0.24% to settle at 18,420.11 while the S&P CNX Nifty gained 15.30 points or 0.28% to settle at 5,532.05.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 18,458.63 and 18,258.42, respectively. The BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.25% and Small cap index was up by 0.17%.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Cipla up 2.25%, HDFC up 1.74%, HDFC Bank up 1.09%, TCS up 1.01% and Infosys up 0.89%.
On the flip side, Jaiprakash Associate down 2.54%, Hindalco Industries down 1.61%, Bajaj Auto down 1.53%, Mahindra & Mahindra down 1.51% and ONGC down 1.38% were the top losers on the index.
Meanwhile, the raising international food and oil prices are posing greater risk to growth of Indian Economy in comparison to other Asian economies like China, Indonesia or Malaysia. According to Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimate, the inflationary pressure caused by increase in global oil and food prices will take off over three quarters of a percentage point from India's growth and another 1.25% points in 2012. The ADB estimates that Indian growth will hit the highest in 2012 in comparison to other major Asian economies included in the study. 
The ADB had used the Oxford Economics Global Model to study the impact of increased food and oil prices, according to which, from August 2010, the crude oil prices have increased by 45% and food prices by 10 to 35% in various countries. The model generates projections of key economic variables based on the assumption that monetary authorities in the region will adopt a gradual tightening stance in the next years as recovery takes firm hold. The ADB's key hypothesis is that the international food and crude oil prices raised by 30% and moderately falls in 2012. According to ADB estimates, the expected oil and food price increase this year is likely to hammer Indian economy more vis-à-vis China for 2011 and 2012. Other indicators also indicate, inflation is affecting the Indian growth story.
Indian economy registered 7.8% growth rate in the 4th quarter of the FY11. This was the slowest in the last five quarters. However, for the 2010-11, the Indian economic grew by 8.5%, which was marginally lower than the government's forecast of 8.6%. According to Financial service firm Moody, the Indian economy's growth outlook over the next few years remains strong and the economy is likely to grow by 8.5 to 9.5% annually despite the slowdown in last quarter of FY 11. Financial firm also see inflation as biggest challenge for India's growth. As per Moody's report, RBI's stand on controlling inflation should also consider maintaining the balance between growth and inflation, though firm see this task challenging for the government and central bank.
The major gainers on the BSE sectoral space were IT up 0.81%, Health Care (HC) up 0.71%, TECk up 0.65%, Capital Goods up 0.60%, and Bankex up 0.55%.
The top losers in the BSE sectoral space were Metal down 0.68%, Auto down 0.55%, Oil & Gas down 0.36%, FMCG down 0.31% and Public Sector Unit (PSU) down 0.25%.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,542.65 and 5,479.85, respectively.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Dr Reddy up 2.36%, Cipla up 2.28%, Sun Pharma up 2.00%, HDFC up 1.66% and Kotak Bank up 1.48%.
On the flip side, JP Associate down 2.48%, M&M down 1.75%, BPCL down 1.71%, Hindalco down 1.56% and ONGC down 1.54% were the major losers on the index.
European markets were trading in mix. France's CAC 40 down by 0.72%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.01%, and Germany's DAX lower by 0.08%.
All the Asian equity indices which were opened today has closed the day's trade in the negative terrain on Monday, pressured by last week's disappointing US economic data, which witnessed the weakest reading since September coupled with the unexpected rise in US jobless rate to 9.1 percent. Moreover, Nikkei benchmark edged lower to an 11-week closing low on Monday on speculation that Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) could go through a court-led rehabilitation fanned bearish sentiment in the wake of soft US data. TEPCO lost more than a quarter of their value. However, financial markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan are shut for the trade today on the back of public holiday.

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