WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

The Crude Oil is gradually inching my target of $110 per barrel mentioned a couple of months back when most of the analysts who generally proliferates on TV these days, except some were predicting Crude Oil price of $200 per barrel. If you remember, I repeatedly said that the Crude at $145 per barrel, plus is unsustainable and is at a bubble stage; I was totally confident that it would continue to fall once the US driving season comes to an end. I became pretty clear last week, when even after so much bad news, the crude could not cross the resistance at $125 per barrel. Now if the Crude Oil breaks $110 mark then it could swiftly move below $100, triggering a rally in Auto and Real Estate Stocks. The Real Estate/Construction stocks have already started to rally in the anticipation of softer interest rates in the days ahead: Noida Toll Bridge, recommended some weeks back on the Sunday Report hit the buyer freeze. So what to do now with Noida Toll Bridge Ltd???

Vijay Shanti Builders Ltd hit the buyer freeze on last Friday with good volumes, before cooling down a tad below the circuits. The company has order book of more than Rs.1300 Cr. The Present Order Book is more than 60 times its June, 2008 quarter (Q1FY09) earnings. Just look at the share price of Vijay Shanti Builders Ltd when it has more than Rs.1300 Cr order book and Huge Land Bank.

So is the present price of the shares of Vijay Shanti Builders Ltd at Rs.60.5 justified for this hidden Real Estate giant from South India??!! The promoters have long back taken position in the Scrip at Rs.95 per shares which more than 50% plus, the current price of the shares. This actually points out where the price of the scrip could head in the next few months/years.

Purchasing a house/apartment these days has become an essential thing/item in every family and hence its price cannot correct/fall too much from the existing rates, however much some analysts shout from the TOP OF A TREE.

The Land Bank in Metro/Tier-1/Tier-2/Tier-3, cities are shrinking and this is pushing the price of land up which in turn is sky-rocketing the valuation of companies which are holding huge land banks like Vijay Shanti Builders, Dlf Ltd, Unitech Ltd or Lok Housing Ltd:

Another area which needs to be explored is the Green Fuel Space or the Bio Diesel space. World-wide there is a rush to buy the shares of these companies as they are renewal source of Energy and unlike Crude Oil companies these companies will remain till Jatropha/ Pongamania or other oil producing plants can be grown on earth. Some days back I talked with the Research Head of a reputed brokerage house from Kolkata and he asked me to accumulate Southern Online Bio Tech, just on the eve of de-merger and start of the new plant in Vizag. The company could start delivering additional 25% more to the APSRTC within a couple of months.

The price hike in the diesel some months back has generated enough cash in the balance sheet of the company. While the production cost remained almost same, due to bio-sources, the product price suddenly rose due to hike in diesel prices by the Government a couple of months back to keep in tune with the rise in Crude Oil prices. Besides the company is purchasing the seeds of Jatropha/Pongamania to be distribued to the villages form "International Aid" it received.It has also purchased some new machineries with the Money it obtained as "internatinal aid". Now the company could get the lucrative "Carbon Credits" from early next year.The company presented with wonderful set of numbers for the June, 2008 quarter:

Those who are holding my recommended Sabero Organics Ltd since a long time should book at least some profits and keep holding the rest with a SL of Rs.24:

Sunil High Tech Engineers Ltd is looking excellent at the current price of around Rs.203, where it has given a break out---though the trend is yet to be confirmed from other parameters: I will be recommending an Electrical Company in the Sunday Report and a company catering almost to the same field on Tuesday to the Paid Groups: Paid Members will be presented with the Full Order Book Position of Vijay Shanti Builders (Current Projects and Projects in Hand) in the Sunday Report: My recommended Sahyadri Industries Ltd which fell to some abnormal levels is hitting continuous buyer freezes. The stock is expected to hit some more buyer freezes in the days to come: It seems CNBC TV18 will soon become junk channel: Now they have altered the Udayan-Mitali combination by bringing a "Punjabi Kudi" in the "Morning Slot", thinking that she would be able to outperform, another Punjabi, Namrata Brar of NDTV Proft. But if they think so, then they are terribly mistaken, as Ms.Gill is no match for Mitali even in the present form. What has happened to CNBC TV18???!!! It seems soon its TRP will sink to the lowest??

Unless the Indian Business Channels become more careful while choosing analysts, they are expected to find it difficult these days to catch the eye balls, as most of the hard core marketmen have already shifted to the Internet for most of their research:

NDTV Profit Ltd will face a heavy blow and Dr.Roy could be left with junk stocks, if its last pillars, my good friend and versatile/softspoken/very polished, Ashoo Singha, ever smiling/vivacious Namrata Brar and our "modern headmistress" Ms.Shely Chopra leaves it.........However, I am yet to find out who "ate up" our "market guru" Nikunj Dalmia,.........Earlier Times Business "Stomached" two of NDTV's masterpieces, Abhik Barman and Anindo Chakraborty.... Seems some "serious poaching exercise" is going on in the media circles...

TIPS Show Inflation Expectations at Lowest Level in Five Years

By Dakin Campbell

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities show that traders' expectations for inflation over the next decade fell to the lowest in almost five years this week as prices of commodities tumbled.

The gap between yields on TIPS and conventional 10-year notes narrowed after the Federal Reserve signaled that it will keep borrowing costs steady after leaving interest rates unchanged at its Aug. 5 policy meeting. A basket of 19 commodities including oil fell to a four-month low.

``The bottom line is you've seen a significant turn in commodity prices,'' said Thomas Tucci, head of U.S. government bond trading at RBC Capital Markets in New York, the investment- banking arm of Canada's biggest lender. ``Going forward you're more likely to see inflation erode.''

Ten-year TIPS yielded 2.18 percentage points less than similar-maturity notes, the smallest difference since October 2003. The yield gap indicates the annual rate of inflation foreseen over the life of the security.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was little changed last week at 3.94 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 4 percent security due in August 2018 traded at 100 15/32. The two-year note's yield increased 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.50 percent on the week.

Yields on 30-year bonds decreased 3 basis points for the week to 4.52 percent as the securities, more sensitive to inflation than shorter-term debt, outperformed notes.

Consumer Price Report:

Oil fell for the fourth week in five, leading the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, a basket of 19 raw materials, to a four-month low. Crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for September delivery fell 8 percent this week to $115.20 a barrel.

The government on Aug. 14 will likely say that consumer prices including food and energy rose 0.4 percent last month, after a 1.1 percent increase in June, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 52 economists. That would be the smallest monthly increase since April.

If ``I am with the Fed right now, I feel pretty good about my statement that we expect inflation to moderate over time,'' Brian Edmonds, head of interest rates at Cantor Fitzgerald LP, said Aug. 5. Cantor is one of 19 primary dealers that trade with the U.S. central bank. Fed policy makers left the benchmark rate for overnight lending between banks unchanged at 2 percent on Aug. 5 for a second straight policy meeting, saying inflation is a significant concern while risks to growth remain. The central bank reduced interest rates by 3.25 percentage points in a series of seven cuts between September and April.

Inflation Bet:

``The Fed is making a bet inflation is going to take care of itself over the next six months,'' E. Craig Coats Jr., co- head of fixed income at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. in New York, said after the central bank's meeting.

Traders increased bets the Fed won't raise the target rate through the end of the year. They saw a 62 percent chance yesterday that the central bank will hold the rate steady through December, compared with 35 percent odds a week earlier, according to futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries this week drew better-than-forecast demand, showing investors are still attracted to the safety of U.S. government debt.

The sale of $10 billion in 30-year bonds attracted the most participation in two-and-a-half years from a class of investors that includes foreign central banks. The group, known as indirect bidders, bought 42.9 percent of the auction, the most since February 2006. The sale, the biggest of the maturity since 2006, drew a yield of 4.609 percent, below the 4.662 percent average forecast of nine bond-trading firms surveyed by Bloomberg News.

`Fear and Uncertainty':

``The auction went much better than anyone expected,'' Nils Overdahl, a portfolio manager in Bethesda, Maryland, at New Century Advisors, said on Aug. 7. He helps manage $500 million in assets. ``There's still a great deal of fear and uncertainty in the market. People are happy to hold onto the safety of Treasuries.''

A sale of $17 billion in 10-year notes, the most in five years, drew a yield of 4.075 percent, lower than the 4.101 percent forecast by six bond-trading firms in another Bloomberg survey. Investors bid for 2.61 times the amount offered, the strongest so-called bid-to-cover ratio since September. Speculation eased that the European Central Bank, whose sole mandate is to maintain price stability, will raise interest rates. The ECB held its benchmark rate at 4.25 percent at its policy meeting this week. Its president, Jean-Claude Trichet, said expansion will be ``particularly weak'' in the second and third quarters. [With Inputs from the Internet]