Winning Strokes:

My Recommended Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd, Ennore Coke Ltd, RDB Industries Ltd, BF Utilities Ltd (Today's morning Call), IFB Agro Indutries Ltd (Last week's Quickie Call), Minda Industries Ltd, Shivalik Bi-Metal (2nd Consucutive Buyer Freeze-- one of the Quickie Calls for this week another one hit the circuits today), VBC Industries Ltd (5th Consecutive Buyer Freeze), India Foils Ltd, SEL Manufacturing Ltd, BPL Ltd (Highly Speculative), Jhunjhunwala Vanaspati Ltd, Radhe Developers Ltd, Rathi Udyog Ltd and so on hit the Buyer Freeze when the both the Sensex and Nifty were down: So the Sensex up or Nifty down, my recommended calls are always Evergreen: What was the other Short Term call for today which also hit the buyer freeze and which will hit the buyer freeze tomorrow???

The following are excerpts from the Latest Sunday Report sent to the Paid Members on 6th April, 2008:

I think that current correction in the market is looking like a hapless Twenty20 bowler asking to be hit out of the ground in the dyeing moments of the game. Like the Twenty20 bowler, the role of corrections in the Indian market is generally limited and even the spells are shorter—but this time it is grinding on. In 2007, investors got many opportunities to enter the market but very few were able to take advantage of the same only out of fear---with Graph analysts always spoiling the party; as if they are the astrologers and their charts are end and means to every disease in the markets. Countless times I have distinctively mentioned that every fall in the market should be taken as an opportunity to buy in small quantities as we do not know where the bottom is and the markets is driven not by past data but by the future happenings. Perhaps now every investor may be thinking of what lies ahead. I feel that although, we are once again slipping there is little to be worried. There is still good amount of liquidity in the market and hence, there are no reasons for the market to go down in a hurry. But one thing is clear, higher the liquidity higher is the volatility in the market and therefore expect a great deal of volatility in the near future. The reason for liquidity to stay longer is simple. The liquidity is coming as international investors are reducing their exposure to the Dollar based assets and are investing in the emerging markets. This will continue till the US economy recovers fully and the dollar starts to appreciate against the major currencies. And with India expected to grow at around eight per cent per annum, it has become a favorite destination to park funds.

Further, the Rupee appreciation has created a natural hedge for foreign investors, which made Indian markets safer than the other markets. In addition, money is also coming from new destinations like Middle East apart from traditional markets like the US and Europe. Many analysts in the market have stated that liquidity in the markets are not going to dry up at least in the next one year. The main reason for the increase in liquidity was the US Fed rate cut. However we could see occasional bouts of FIIs selling, which in any case will be very marginal in comparison to the total FIIs money, which has flown in this soil in the last few years. FIIs will always want to share the profits of a 8% growing economy than to invest in an economy where the growth will be less than 5%. In addition to the above factors, even the market regulator SEBI had made decent efforts to increase the liquidity by coming with new derivative products. SEBI has made the contract size smaller which will actually result in more number of market participants. Anyway, the domestic markets ended this week booking a loss of about 3% in the broader indices. All the sectoral indices ended down on WoW basis with Realty, Metal, Power, Capital Goods bearing the burnt of the sharp fall. The volumes recorded remained lacklustre amidst negative breadth of the market. FIIs remained net sellers in the cash as well as the derivatives segment together with mutual funds, who were net sellers too. Crude oil prices have softened a bit on the back of an increase in US inventory levels. Indian markets have underperformed during the week as compared to the global counter parts. Global markets except for the Taiwan ended up about 3-7%. Surge in inflation rate to its highest in over three years spelled gloom for the Indian stock market as investors feared a hike in banks' CRR was imminent.

India's headline inflation rate for the week ended 22nd Mar, 2008 rose to an over three-year-high of 7% from 6.68% a week earlier, mainly on account of prices of primary articles, especially iron ore.

However, WPI index is just a misnomer as it does not account the services sector which accounts 55% of the GDP, so there are chances that whatever inflation data we are getting could be just misleading. Besides as I mentioned earlier this is an “Imported Inflation” and the government could do little in terms of monetary measures.

Thus, I expect that RBI may wait to see the impact of major step taken recently (custom duty cut on edible oils, export ban on food grains, steel price hike roll back) by the government to counter inflation. A rate hike at this point may hurt the growth which has already slowed in past few months. Indian economy is still doing very well as compared to US which is expected to get less 1% in the current fiscal.

The moot point is that while the US faces recessary chances, Indian economy is chugging on well and I do not find why we Investors should be so worried with these short term blips. In the near term, I expect RBI to let the INR rise against USD, as it will result in cheaper imports. Or the RBI can go for Rupee Appreciation route which I mentioned long back in my blog.

Today's Market Dynamics:

The market lost ground today giving up yesterday's gains tracking weakness in Asian and European stocks. Larsen & Toubro and Wipro were major losers from the Sensex pack. Bharat Heavy Electricals and Bharti Airtel were major gainers from Sensex pack. Reliance Energy recovered from lower level. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended down 169.46 points or 1.08% at 15,587.62. At the day’s low of 15,479.42, Sensex lost 277.66 points in mid-morning trade. Sensex rose 13.08 points at the day's high of 15,770.40 , at the onset of the trading session. The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 51.55 points or 1.08% at 4,709.65. Nifty April 2008 futures were at 4690.30, at a discount of 19.35 points as compared to spot closing of 4709.65. Asian and European stocks dropped today as news a possible capital injection at the largest US savings and loan company Washington Mutual Inc failed to eliminate concerns about more bank writedowns. In Asia, key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were down by between 0.65% to 1.79%. European markets were weak. France’s CAC, Germany’s DAX and UK’s FTSE 100 were down by between 0.87% to 1.31%. US stocks were little changed on Monday, 7 April 2008, as rising oil prices stoked fears that corporate profits will suffer, overshadowing optimism the credit crisis is easing on news that Washington Mutual Inc was close to securing a $5 billion investment. BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5,127 crore compared to a turnover of Rs 4,969.92 crore on Monday, 7 April 2008. The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 33,143.36 crore, which was higher than Rs 32,302.80 crore on Monday, 7 April 2008. Capital goods, IT, metal and oil & gas stocks declined. However BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices rose. The market breadth was positive: on BSE 1393 shares advanced as compared to 1,210 that declined. 69 shares remained unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.6% to Rs 6,383.02 and BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.47% to 7,814.17. BSE Capital Goods index (down 1.78% to 12,528.84) BSE Metal index (down 1.93% to 13,544.58), BSE IT index (down 1.69% to 3,685.07), underperformed Sensex. BSE Bankex (up 0.62% to 7,952.81), BSE Consumer Durables index (up 0.32% to 3,926.27), BSE Power index (down 0.04% to 3,005.48), BSE HealthCare index (down 0.12% to 3,936.03), BSE PSU index (down 0.4% to 7,240.22), BSE Auto index (down 0.42% to 4,415.37), BSE FMCG index (down 0.5% to 2,372.64), BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.83% to 10,462.87), BSE Realty index (down 0.98% to 7,410.22) outperformed Sensex. India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro lost 5.09% to Rs 2,581.30 even as company said it had bagged four orders worth Rs 1687 crore. The orders are for water supply projects, sinter plant and cold roll mill and a coal handling plant. However, India’s largest power equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals rose 4.67% to Rs 1,712.75. Metal stocks declined. Steel Authority of India (down 6.14% to Rs 157.55), National Aluminium Company (down 3.55% to Rs 432.45), Tata Steel (down 3.39% to Rs 656.30), Hindalco Industries (down 1.53% to Rs 170.30) edged lower. IT stocks declined. Wipro (down 4.6% to Rs 414), Tata Consultancy Services (down 1.64% to Rs 885.30), Infosys (down 2.07% to Rs 1,461.30) and Satyam Computer Sevices (down 0.71% to Rs 429.10) edged lower. Oil & Gas stocks declined. ONGC (down 0.65% to Rs 1,011.25), Reliance Petroleum (down 1.57% to Rs 168.75), Cairn India (down 0.35% to Rs 227.25) edged lower. India’s largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries declined 1.02% to Rs 2,381.25. It recovered from its lows of Rs 2,358.60. A consortium of Reliance Industries (RIL) has reportedly discovered oil in Yemen. The discovery in Block 9 in Qarn Qaymah 2 well is considered to be significant, and RIL is in process of evaluating the viability. Jaiprakash Associates (down 4.48% to Rs 221.55), Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 2.71% to Rs 470.75), Grasim Industries (down 2.56% to Rs 2,560.40), Hindustan Unilever (down 2.02% to Rs 247.90), Maruti Suzuki India (down 1.91% to Rs 744.20), and NTPC (down 2.12% to Rs 186.55) edged lower from the Sensex pack. ICICI Bank (up 0.49% to Rs 813.25), DLF (up 0.68% to Rs 621.25), Bharti Airtel (up 1.25% to Rs 828.60), HDFC (up 0.13% to Rs 2,309.50), State Bank of India (up 0.09% to Rs 1,674.80), HDFC Bank (up 0.09% to s 1,304.30) edged higher from Sensex pack. Orchid Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals clocked the highest volume of 2.05 crore shares on BSE. Reliance Natural Resources (1.14 crore shares), Sita Shree Food Poducts (1.06 crore shares), Indiabulls Securities (76.55 lakh shares) and Reliance Petroleum (71.28 lakh shares) were other volume toppers in that order. Orchid Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals clocked the highest turnover of Rs 478.05 crore on BSE. Bharat Heavy Electricals (Rs 264.07 crore), Larsen & Toubro (Rs 226.74 crore), Reliance Power (Rs 207.53 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs 203.91 crore) were other turnover toppers in that order. The next major trigger for the market is Q4 March 2008 results of India Inc. Analysts will be closely watching what the company managements have to say about the outlook for the year ending March 2009 (FY 2009). Analysts will also scrutinize disclosures that companies may make regarding foreign exchange derivatives products that they have bought on the advice of their bankers. A steep decline in the value of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc hit Indian corporates which have used these two currencies (Yen and Franc) extensively to swap their rupee denominated debt. As regards Q4 March 2008 results, Morgan Stanley expects 23% growth in net earnings of 104 out of 108 firms in its Indian coverage universe in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007. Good results are expected from the telecom sector on the back of strong growth in new subscribers additions. Infrastructure and engineering firms, too, are seen reporting decent numbers in Q4 March 2008 on the back of healthy order book positions. The performance of auto firms is likely to be sluggish due to muted volume growth and rise in input costs. A depreciation of the rupee against the dollar is likely to drive good results from the IT sector on a sequential basis in Q4 March 2008 over Q3 December 2007, though the focus here is on guidance for the year ending March 2009 from IT bellwether Infosys Technologies. Infosys guidance will give investors a sense of the effect of the weakening US economy on technology spending by companies there. Sensex had jumped 413.96 points or 2.7% at 15,757.08 on Monday, 7 April 2008, on positive cues from the Asian markets. [With Inputs from the Internet]

Note:This is for the general information to all my well-wishesrs and all the readers of this blog that whatever Advertisements are placed here by some well known advertisement agencies are not according to my consent. So if you find the advertisement of any brokerage house here, please do not think that it has been placed here on my consent. In fact I do not have choice on the type of advertisements which are placed here as they are done by the said agencies--which essentially means while I choose the ad agencies, but not the type of advertisements here unless they are Pornographic in nature.

So next time please be careful before acting on those advertisements. U might find the advertisements of a brokerage firm on my blog (and I think it is deliberately placed here to show that I have consent to it) one of whose analysts repeatedly gave misleading statements on a Business Channel, when the market was falling and I took it headon which dented lot of popularity of the said Brokerage Firm. My strong resistance to such manipulation of the Visual Media by some vested interest groups(read Brokerage Houses), had also prompted SEBI to send strong statements against brokerage houses. So please take these points while considering the advertisements on this blog--Kindly, don't think that a particular advertisement has been placed after seeking my consent; infact most of the time it is just the opposite.