Monday, March 10, 2008

English India Clay Ltd, the "Quickie Call" of the last week is hitting 20% continuous buyer freeze. It never went out of the circuits even when the Sensex Tanked in the last week. The stock has more than doubled from the recommended price in one week: This week's Quickie Call Advani Hotels and Resorts Ltd hit the buyer freeze in the initial trade before cooling down a bit. There are interesting developments taking place in the company: My earlier recommended Ganesh Forgings Ltd, Carol Info, etc. did well today: The markets as expects recovers at the late trade: Investors should accumulate, H S India Ltd, Phoenix International Ltd, Ennore Coke Ltd, Madhav Marbles & Granites Ltd, Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd, Southern Online Bio Technologies Ltd (with Crude Oil at $107 plus per barrel how can we overlook this Bio-diesel producer) etc. at throw away prices: The following are the excepts of the Sunday Report sent YESTERDAY (09-03-08) to the Premium and Quickie Group Members: The markets could go for consolidation from here with occasional bouts of selling: The Markets could test the lower range of 15530-15180. A rise and close above 17230 could signal the temporary halt to the fall: A pull-back rally is awaited soon:
Indian stock market’s Key indices ended down 4% on last Friday, coming slightly off lows on short covering at lower levels. Market was down 3% in the morning after the U.S. and Asian markets fell sharply on weak U.S. economic data released Thursday. A rise in India's inflation for the week ended 23rd February, 2008 to 5.02% worsened the fall, which was followed by a weak opening in European markets. RBI Governor Y.V. Reddy said tolerance limit for headline inflation will be 5%. He also said foreign exchange flows will be managed through short-term policy tools. However, short covering at lower levels lent support to the indices and a partial recovery in some heavyweights helped indices come off lows towards the end of the session. Realty, power and bank shares were the worst hit on Friday.
Volumes recorded remained low amidst negative breadth of the market during the truncated trading week. Incidentally, FIIs remained net sellers in the cash segment, but were net buyers in the derivatives segment. Mutual funds, however, remained net sellers during the course of the week.
The US economy continued to give out negative economic signals, while crude oil prices crossed $105 per barrel. Inflation continued to remain a concern for the Indian economy as it touched 5.02% for the week ended 23rd February, 2008. The market sentiment still remains nervous. Participation remained lackluster due to lack of confidence among the investors and traders.
With no domestic triggers in sight this month, the market is expected to remain lackluster. Any negative global cue will add to the selling pressure in the bourses. Occasional flare-ups may be witnessed due to short covering and some value based buying at lower levels; due to the attractive valuations. Budget related stock specific action will be witnessed amidst occasional bouts of volatility and choppiness.
But even in such harsh conditions there is oasis to be found. The valuation in the market is absolutely fantastic to go for buying spree using the SIP method for medium to long-term investments. Going by the Rs.16534 Cr allocation for health care, the cut in excise duty to 8% from 16% on all pharmaceutical products, exemption of excise on anti-Aids drug ’Atazavir’ and cut from 10% to 5% on bulk drugs used to manufacture these products is a positive trigger for the bulls.
In addition to this the introduction of new Sub Section (11C) in Section 80IB of the Income Tax Act to grant a 5-year tax holiday to new hospitals built outside the urban localities between 1st April 2008 to 31st March 2013 is a big positive for the private hospitals and hospital companies and may be a boon for Apollo Hospitals and Fortis Healthcare.
In Euro zone, Germamy’s January industrial output was up 1.8% m/m and 6.9% y/y. European Central Bank member Weber hawkishly said the prospect of weaker EMU-15 economic growth is not enough reason to anticipate weaker inflation pressures. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.5145 level.
Most commodities finished close to their lows on Friday, hit by mounting fears of a U.S. recession that have hurt stock markets for weeks. The dollar rebounded from record lows against the euro as the Federal Reserve injected cash into financial markets, raising hopes that the central bank may hold off on further interest rate cuts. This dampened prices of natural resources which have risen sharply as the U.S. currency fell. The Bullions followed by the metals have ended into a lower finish this week.
The Base Metals have been quite volatile over the week. Copper bucked the trend with a higher close in New York despite a weaker-than expected U.S. jobs data, which economists said, made a U.S. recession look more likely. Commodities had risen despite the concerns over U.S. credit woes and other economic problems that had battered the dollar and stocks. Investors fleeing the U.S. currency and Wall Street took refuge in commodities, sending oil above $100 a barrel and gold to nearly $1,000 an ounce. But Friday's weak U.S. job numbers brought some of the fear that had plagued equities to commodities as well. The Federal Reserve took steps to ease liquidity pressures instressed financial markets, which helped boost the dollar and hit commodity markets. The weaker dollar has been a big reason why funds have been flowing into the (commodity) sector in the first place. Some people are thinking that the Fed may not be as aggressive (in cutting rates) and that they are going to inject liquidity in other ways.
Coming to Crude Oil, Speculation is driving triple-digit oil making it impossible for any organization to control price movement. It is widely felt that speculation in futures market is determining prices, these days there is no link between oil (market) fundamentals and prices. The duty of oil exporters is to make sure that fundamentals are healthy. If these fundamentals were stable and fulfill market needs, then there is no need to raise or decrease production is what Mr. Naimi said in his statement. Mr. Naimi was speaking on the sidelines of a mining conference a day after OPEC decided to leave its output unchanged, dismissing a call from the United States, the world's top energy consumer, to act to tame prices. OPEC ministers said recent record high prices had been driven by factors beyond their control, such as a weak dollar, speculation and political strife, not by a lack of oil.
Gold erased initial gains to finish lower on Friday as funds sold bullion for liquidity, capping a volatile week which saw gold make several runs toward $1,000 an ounce but was met with heavy resistance each time. It seems like people are getting out of everything because the hedge funds that are long on gold are having troubles in other areas and they need to sell to raise cash. Compared with what it has done before, gold has slightly underperformed in the last week. My guess is that we are going to see a few more days of sharp swings. There is a huge uncertainty in the market after these massive gains we have seen this year. People are getting a bit nervous of the logic of such highprices in an environment of the U.S. remorselessly heading into a recession. Returns on U.S. holdings are eroding for foreign investors and many see precious metals as hard assets that can protect portfolios.I think we are in for a period of correction for a while now. Gold will be in consolidation mode ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on March 18, 2008. In a bull market, strength begets strength and that seems to the driving force behind the repeated attempt to breach the $1,000 level and this the main fact due to which we were witnessing wild swings in the bullions.
The Wall Street closed to less ominous figure on last Friday, after initial selling took place from the word go. Analysts were expecting a full 300 plus points fall on the Dow, but late value buying by the investors and traders lifted the sentiments. Some of the ealier battered financial stocks surprisingly performed well.The Indian Bourses on Monday are expected to depend largely how the Asian markets open and trade. But initial moods are expected to be subdued due to negative clues coming from the Wall Street. However the markets are expected to stabilize as the day progressed.
Investors and traders are advised not to buy or sell anything in lots (huge volumes) in the early hours or till the market shows some direction. They should keep track of good counters or my earlier recommended counters and add them using......The March of any year is difficult and hence this should be used only for buying in small lots and not for selling. We shall all start selling from .......2008.
Technically, the Sensex has support at the 15....and 14... levels. On the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 16, .... and 17.... levels. The 44..., 44... & 40... are important support levels for the Nifty. On the upside, the Nifty faces resistance at the 4.... and 5.... levels.
FULL MARKET REPORT ALONG WITH OTHER FEATURES LIKE A SOLID STOCK RECOMMENDATION FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM, SHORT TERM CALLS ON SELECT DAYS, F & O CALLS FOR THE WEEK, SELECTED COLUMNS, TIT-BITS AND HITS (Contains interesting takes on companies including maket rumours and news), ADD ON RECOMMENDATIONS, IMPORTANT EVENTS OF THE WEEK ETC. ONLY TO THE PAID MEMBERS.

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