Monday, February 25, 2008

Kamdhenu Ispat Ltd, the "Quickie Call" for Monday (today) hit the Buyer Freeze in the Choppy Trade: My Recommended Reliance Power Ltd just a day before the declaration of the Bonus Issue, sizzles today on the announcement of the bonus ratio: My Recommended BNK Capital Markets Ltd, Walchandnagar Industries Ltd (today the name was mentioned in the Emergency Mail sent), SEL Manufacturing Ltd (mentioned a couple of days back in this blog), DMC International Ltd, FCS Software Ltd, Karuturi Network Ltd (in the Yesterday's Sunday Report), NCL Industries Ltd, Relaxo Footwear Ltd, either hit the buyer freeze or did well today: Ennore Coke Ltd hit the buyer freeze before going for sudden selling. This is a sure shot play like Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd which almost hit the buyer freeze in the early trade before cooling down a bit. Many people forget that Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd is a to be broadcasting company and is at present a content company catering to visual media. It is to be noted that broadcasting companies always enjoy high valuation as compared to plain vanilla media content companies. I have hardly seen broadcasting companies trading below their book values or face values. For example take the case of Dish TV India Ltd (BSE Code-532839); though the company is making continuous losses, the scrip is trading at a mind-boggling price of Rs.61.60. Another Example is NDTV Ltd. Though the consolidated results show at net loss of Rs.32 Cr for the December, 2007 quarter, it is trading at Rs.405.65. I am sure Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd with its consolidated EPS of Rs.6.21 for the December, 2007, will soon trade at enviable valuations in the coming days. It should at least trade at Rs.60--Rs.70, with the current fundamentals in place if not more: The Board of Directors of Ennore Coke Ltd are meeting probably on the 1st Week of March, 2008, to discuss on the issues related to the start of commercial production according to some rumours. The Company will start heating of the Completed Coke Plant from next month (i.e. from March, 2008). The raw materials for the production has started to arrive from overseas. The company earlier saved huge amount of money due to rupee appreciation: Excerpts of the message from the latest Sunday Report, sent to the Premium/Quickie Group members on 24th February, 2008. Did the Markets Rebound today and Remain Volatile as mentioned in the latest Sunday Report???!!! Just find for yourself, from the excerpts of the Sunday Report, below:
The markets are expected to rebound on Monday but would remain volatile in the whole of week---a favourable budget and a better than expected figures from the US, could lift the sentiments: F & O Settlements in the week ahead could spoil the party, if the budget is not populist: The medium term trend in the market is still undecided and hence investors are asked not to go for bulk purchases or too much bottom fishing: Booking profits at higher levels followed by entering at lower levels, should be the ultimate strategy: The markets remained volatile last week, and closed in the negative on last Friday. Follow-up buying at higher levels and lack of confidence among the investors saw the markets turn highly volatile with the selling coming as the markets reached certain levels. A good point to be noted is that FIIs remained net buyers in the cash segment as well as the derivatives segment. Domestic institutional investors, however, were net sellers booking profits at higher levels. The volumes recorded have been low, while the prime attraction was the breadth of the market, which remained positive. Crude oil crossed the $100 levels last week. Energy prices have zoomed off-late on fears of the dropping inventories levels and the ongoing crisis between Venezuela and the Exxon Mobil Corp. With reported news that Venezuela has stopped oil supplies to the US, speculators are expecting the prices to dwindle once again and they feel that the supplies could well be balanced. Crude oil was not active in either direction on last Friday but managed to finish higher. The outlook for Crude remains negative for the coming week as we expect it to decline. The downward reversal bar along with the negative divergence on the charts is suggesting another reversal in the trend. The world's zinc miners and smelters remain locked in heated contract talks, failing to bridge a gap on fees to treat concentrates ahead of the American Zinc Association's (AZA) annual event, sources said. But with zinc prices falling sharply in 2007, there is general agreement that miners will have to take a double hit as smelters seek higher treatment charges, or TCs, to turn the increased mine output into zinc metal. Moreover, the outlook for the precious metals remains negative and it is expected to remain weak during the coming week. The same is the case for Aluminium and copper unless the US pulls a rabbit out of the hat. Inflation continued its northward journey to touch 4.35% for the week ended 9th February, 2008. Unless a follow-up buying comes at higher levels it is difficult to get a pre-budget rally this time. The markets are likely to remain volatile ahead of the impending derivatives expiry on Thursday, February 28, 2008, the Budget announcement the next day on February 29 and the uncertainty prevailing in global markets. The Budget is expected to be populist, neutral and accommodative, ahead of the election year. It could even turn out to be a non-event for the markets but negative surprises are unlikely to dot the financial landscape. Stock specific actions will be witnessed amidst occasional bouts of volatility and choppiness. Technically, on the upside the Sensex faces resistance at the 17,475 and 18,530 levels and has support at the 17,025 and 16,550 levels. On the upside, the Nifty faces resistance at 5156, 5380, 5410 levels followed by 5519 level. The 5110, 5015, 4975, 4900 and 4850 are important support levels for the Nifty. 5095-5120 is the short term support that traders need to watch out for. A break below this level is likely to take the index to test the physiologically important 5000 level. The indices are expected to continue the range bound activity for some more time. Fresh investments in huge lots are still not advisable though we could see a bounce on Monday, 25th February, 2008. Hence, a cautious approach needs to be adopted and bottom fishing is not advisable. Traders and speculators should book profit at regular intervals and again enter at lower levels using SIP method. The medium term trend of the market is still undecided. But there is a silver lining in the cloud: A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and even though its annualized growth rate has reached readings seen in a recession, there might still be a chance to reverse it, a research group said on Friday. Over and above that the fact that the US Fed is giving less importance to inflation is a welcome sign. The US economy is slowing down, but a soft landing is expected before the dollops of economic packages starts to be rolled out from May, 2008. Anyway if the budget is populist, then we could see a dream rally in the days to come. The Indian economy is one of the best performing economies, globally and has successfully maintained its growth momentum of over 8.5% of GDP despite various hiccups. So whatever Mr. Shankar Sharma and his academically brilliant wife says, the India Growth Story is still very much alive and kicking. [From the Sunday Report sent to the Paid Groups on 24-02-08]

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