Monday, February 26, 2007

Some of the Positives( "Goodies") for the Following Week:
The markets are expected to factor in the following "Goodies"starting from today:
1. The Finance Minister is at last able to "Cage the inflationTiger". You must be aware that the biggest worry for the markets,the inflation declined to 6.63% during the week ended February 10from 6.73% a week earlier. This is a positive indicator, that atlast the fiscal measures put by the FM is "Working". I hope theinflation to slip below sub 6 % levels by the end of this month.
2. Institutions have been net buyers to the tune of ......The FIIs have been net buyer, of Rs.99.20 Cr and Mutual Funds have been net buyers of Rs.521.62 Cr till 22-02-07. I am also getting reports that the Provisional figures for both the FIIs and Mutual Funds for 23-02-07 is slightly positive.
3. The move of Reliance Industries (RIL) to make a preferentialoffering of Rs 15,000 crore to lead promoter Mukesh Ambani has gonedown well with the equity analysts' community. This could alone liftthe sentiments of the markets.
4. Sharad Pawar, according to sources, is likely to make a suo moto statement on price rise in Lok Sabha on Tuesday. He may hint at extending the ban on export of pulses barring kabuli chana for the next financial year, i.e. March 31, 2008. This measure would translate into India losing Rs 1000 crore worth export market for its pulses. At the same time, the centre may also move towards extending zero duty import of pulses till March 31, 2008. Interestingly enough, the Government proposes to lift the ban on export of only 'kabuli chana' as a 'special case'.
4. On the last Friday the private sector steel major Tata Steel was a top gainer, up 0.39% to Rs 457.90, on a volume of 24.71 lakh shares. on reports say that Corus had hiked hot/cold rolled prices for European markets by 5 - 7% for the second quarter 2007 deliveries. The decision to increase the prices is a reflection of favourable market conditions. The Anglo-Dutch steel company was last month acquired by Tata Steel. A spokesman for Corus said, "Demand is improving and the stocks are at normal levels. The current strong demand for steel in Europe - particularly in construction and end-user sectors - supports this price increase". This is positive for the markets and in general for the steel sector. In addition to this, there are talks that steelmakers will raise prices by Rs 1000 per tonne, post-budget, on the back of firm global steel prices.
BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia's largest steelmaker, said first-half profit rose 24 percent because of higher prices and record sales driven by building demand at home and in the U.S. Net income rose to A$388 million ($307 million), or 54.6 cents a share, for the six months ended Dec. 31, from A$312 million, or 43.5 cents, a year ago, the Melbourne-based company said in a statement. That beats the A$360 million expected by analysts in a Bloomberg survey.
5. India's personal computers (PC) market grew by 25% in 2006 with total shipments crossing five million units during the period, according to the IDC India Quarterly PC Tracker for the fourth quarter of 2006. In the overall Client PC (Notebooks and Desktops) market, Hewlett-Packard (HP) retained the top spot with a market share of 21% in terms of units shipped, followed by HCL at 14% and Lenovo at 9%, the report said.
The notebook PC market continued the growth momentum during 2006 because of aggressive marketing by vendors that led to doubling of shipments within a year. "The notebook PC segment grew 104% year-on-year and reached at about one million unit shipments," IDC said. It was largely due to buying by education segment, individual consumer or SOHO purchases and increased traction from the SMB segment. "With higher education, institutes such as engineering colleges and management schools are aggressively adopting the concept of Wi-Fi campuses and usage of notebook PCs in their learning tools and methodologies, a healthy surge in shipments was seen," it said.
6. Some analysts have expressed some concerns on the Crude oil front, where the prices once again spiked up, above the $60 level.The Crude prices internationally have risen by $3-$4 during the lastfew weeks. BUT THEN, NEW FINDINGS MENTIONED IN A PINK DAILY SAYSDIFFERNT THING: "Higher stock prices may depend on rising oil"..The daily further goes on to say that, "As the price of oil skyrockets,petroleum-exporting nations become wealthier. In economist-speak,their current-account surpluses expand. Those petrodollar surplusesare then recycled to other markets, particularly the US, where theflows help finance the current-account deficit, which was $656billion through the first three quarters of 2006......What's more,fuel exporters are becoming more important in the recyclingbusiness. At $528 billion, their current-account surpluses in 2006surpassed Asia's $437 billion for the first time since the 1970s.The flip side of higher oil prices leading to rising stock marketsis that declining oil prices may lead to falling equities. That'sbecause cheaper oil translates into smaller current-accountsurpluses in places such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait. Thatmeans less money to invest in the US and other financialmarkets.....So if you want stock markets to keep climbing, startcheering for the Arabs, Iranians, Russians and Nigerians, not tomention the Norwegians and Venezuelans. Otherwise, run forcover."..."Should the oil price fall further or even just stay whereit is, global financial markets will lose a valuable source ofliquidity and a major portion of corporate earnings could take ahit," says Daniel Casali, an economist at London-based consultingfirm Independent Strategy. Mr. Casali further goes to saythat, "There will be lower capital surpluses recycled back intomajor financial markets, particularly into dollar assets. That willlower demand for equities and bonds and increase the cost ofcapital, particularly in the US, the main beneficiary of globalcapital recycling." Hence the Moral: "Higher Oil prices not alwaystranslates into higher Omen for the markets.
7 . In the US, the Wall Street is betting on a relatively upbeatreading for the Conference Board's consumer confidence index,scheduled to be released Tuesday..The US Investors have already gotten an earful from the Federal Reserve about its stance oninflation. Almost all the analysts are pretty sure that with oilhovering around $60 a barrel, Ben Bernanke would definitely not pull the "Interest rise button".
UT THEN THERE ARE ALSO SOME NEGATIVES IN TEH MARETS LIKE: Likely banning of cement exports by the government, fears of a slowdown inhousing demand due to rising cost of funds, the RBI palcing restrictions on finance companies investing in real estate, Weak Techinical Cues, etc.
BUT I THINK CONSIDERING ALL THESE ASPECTS THE MARKETS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK IN THE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD RALLY.....

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