Monday, February 26, 2007

Some more Tit-bits on Today's markets:
1. Banks, metals to shine :
The RBI's decision to pay graded interest on eligible CRR balances held above the minimum three per cent is likely to buoy sentiment in banking stocks. The strong rebound in LME prices may help metal stocks.
2. The stock market is likely to witness intra-day volatility and caution may be the keyword for investors on Dalal Street. Besides the Budget, poll results in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur are being awaited keenly; failure of the Congress in these elections, as predicted by various exit polls, would further push the political agenda.
3. There are hopes that the Finance Minister may give a big impetus to agriculture and infrastructure and may not bother corporates much.
4. With politics taking a lead over the economy, apprehension has already set in investors' mind on whether the Budget will be political- or reform-oriented...
5. The Railway Minister, Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav, like in the last three budgets, is not expected to announce any increase in freight or passenger fares in his fourth budget, which he is scheduled to present in Parliament Today.
6. Faced with falling prices and a production glut, sugar mills have begun to hedge their risks in the futures market. "Sugar companies are making forward sales in the futures market. At least 30-40 mills are actively trading in the commodity," said an official of NCDEX.
7. Indian generic players like Dr Reddy’s, Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma are set to lose some but gain quite a lot, if US lawmakers pass a clutch of new legislations for the sale of drugs. Some of these changes pertain to the prohibition of the launch of authorised generics by brand companies during the 180-day generic exclusivity period granted to Para IV challengers, and new regulatory guidelines that will allow the sale of bio-similar generics in the US. Indian companies stand to benefit from these changes.On the other hand, the move to prevent reverse payments by innovator companies to generic makers could hit Indian pharma companies to some extent. The Fair Prescription Drug Competition Act of 2007 introduced in the US Senate, which will make the introduction of authorised generics in the 180- day exclusivity period, will increase the value of the Para IV pipelines of pharma companies. This should benefit Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy’s and Sun the most, says Morgan Stanley Research in a position paper estimating the current size of the Para IV pipeline of these three companies at roughly $35 billion in branded sales. Brand companies may still have the leeway to share the upside during the 180 days by cutting brand prices, it adds. Dr Reddy’s has reaped short-term benefits from the sale of authorised generic sales, which accounted for 33% of its revenues in the first half of FY07 with deals with innovator company Merck for the atherosclerosis drug Zocor and prostrate drug Proscar, yielding Rs 1,100 crore. Thus, the authorised generics strategy is seen as a good short-term strategy. But, in the long term, having a strong Para IV line-up is seen as a more fetching strategy.
7. Outlook: The Nifty is hanging at, or just below, a critical support at 3950. The momentum indicators are quite oversold but likely to remain that way. The market is clearly in a downtrend but has the nadir been reached? The next support is at Nifty 3850. On the upside, there's resistance at 4150. Expect a range of at least 3850-4150 next week as the Budget contributes volatility. Rationale: Budget-week-trading is always volatile and the volatility expansion this week suggests that it won't be different in 2007. The Nifty has a pattern of lower bottoms and lower tops. If the Budget breaks that pattern, by forcing prices above 4150, the downtrend will also be broken. If the Budget is received poorly, the support at 3850 will surely break.
Counter-view: The support at Nifty 3950 was not definitively broken this week and the Nifty may just rally from that level. The last few sessions pre-Budget almost always feature a rally. So the week may start strong. It's impossible to judge if that will last. Technical analysis suggests that the market is pessimistic but the market doesn't have enough information to make it a reliable indicator of the FM's pronouncements. 9.On The last Friday, the Sentiment got worse once the news of IT raids on share-brokers came through but today if no further rades are reported then this will be positive for the markets. [With Inputs from the internet]

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