Wednesday, December 06, 2006

In a Buoyant market, Sensex, Nifty show record closing highs ; Mid Caps rise 14.6o points and Small Caps rise 23.15points: Crude at $62.5 a barrel:[Updated]

Market continued its Rally for the Fifth straight Session, as relentless buying continued across the board. Information Technology, Metals, Capital Goods and Telecom stocks Posted Strong Gains. Auto and bank stocks went out of the reckoning. FMCG and PSU stocks ended on a subdued note due to lack of support. The 30-share BSE Sensex settled 63.32 points higher at 13,937.65, a lifetime closing high. It came off the higher level after opening with an upward gap of 154.14 points at 14,028.47, which is also its all time high. Sensex touched an intra-day low of 13905.65. It took 26 sessions for the Sensex to reach 14,000 mark from its close of 13,024.26 points on 30 October. It happened in a flash! The much awaited event of the Sensex crossing the 14,000 mark took place this morning at the stroke of the opening bell. The bulls appeared to be in a hurry to guide the barometer past that milestone. A start with a positive gap of over 54 points propelled the Sensex to a new all-time high of 14,028.47 at the bell. Strong global markets and a sharp drop in crude oil prices aided the already upbeat sentiment in early trade today.

As many as 18 of its components ended the day in the red, but the Sensex still managed to sign off the historic session with a handsome 63.32 points or 0.46% gain at 13,937.65. The Nifty, which posted a new high at 4033.20, settled for the day at 4015.75, netting a modest gain of 14.75 points or 0.37%. The S&P CNX Nifty also settled at lifetime closing high at 4015.35, up 14.35 points from its previous close. It had surged to an all time high of 4033.20. The market breadth stayed positive with 1307 shares advancing on BSE as compared to 1263 that declined. 68 shares were unchanged. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 23 points or 0.34% to 6,799.99 while the BSE Mid-Cap index gained 10.5 points or 0.2% to 5,829.47 The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 4743 crore as compared to Rs 4836 crore on Monday (4 December) Tata Steel was the top gainer, up 5.60% to Rs 494.25 on 16.75 lakh shares. It moved in range of Rs 470.65- 494.90. The company said on Monday, it had signed an agreement with Nippon Yasen Kabushiki Kaisha to form a 50:50 shipping joint venture. The JV will cater to both dry and bulk cargo. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.50% to Rs 1279 on 9 lakh shares. The stock had opened with huge upward gap at Rs 1350, which is also its 52-week high. The company said on 1 December, that its hydrotreater plant at Jamnagar refinery, which was partially damaged in a fire on 25 October, has been refurbished and has started functioning. Also there are unconfirmed reports that it is set to acquire Adani Retail, the Gujarat based retail chain controlled by the Adani Group. The acquisition of Adani Retail will provide RIL with a readymade retail infrastructure and real estate to begin operations in Gujarat. Reliance Communications rose 3.67% to Rs 459.10 after reports suggested the company has invited bids for 90-100 million cellular lines valued at $7-8 billion. Gujarat Ambuja was the top loser, down 1.66% to Rs 142 on 13.08 lakh shares. Its November 2006 cement despatches increased 9% to 1.31 million tonnes. The stock had hit a intra-day high of Rs 147.45 HDFC (down 1.48% to Rs 1600), Grasim (down 1.45% to Rs 2745) and HDFC Bank (down 1.41% to Rs 1085) were the other losers. Metal stocks advanced on the back of renewed buying interest, with the BSE metal index rising the most among the sectoral indices by 2.01% or 180.28 points to 9148.25. Major gainers from the sector were Ispat Industries (up 1.82% to Rs 11.20), Hindustan Copper (up 5% to Rs 102.25), Maharashtra Seamless (up 3.43% to Rs 482.15), Sesa Goa (up 2.22% to Rs 1288), Hindalco (up 1.33% to Rs 175.70), Jindal Stainless (up 3.67% to Rs 124.40) and SAIL (up 2.45% to Rs 87.90) moved higher. IT stocks were in demand as buying interest resumed in the sector, with the BSE IT index rising 1.19% or 61 points to 5197.44. IT bellwether Infosys Technologies gained 1.39% to Rs 2236 after its ADR rose 2.7% on Monday to $54.42. Other IT stocks Wipro (up 0.42% to Rs 592.80), i-flex (up 4% to Rs 1768), HCL Technologies (up 1.92% to Rs 635) and Satyam Computers (up 0.38% to Rs 460) moved higher. Select sugar stocks surged for the second straight day on speculation that export ban may be lifted shortly. Bajaj Hindustan (up 4.51% to Rs 258.45), Balrampur Chini Mills (up 3.10% to Rs 91.75), Bannari Amman Sugars (up 2.62% to Rs 842), Dhampur Sugar Mills (up 1.21% to Rs 96.10), KM Sugar Mills (up 2.05% to Rs 54.70), Shree Renuka Sugar (up 1.20% to Rs 535) and Sakthi Sugar (up 1.69% to Rs 117) advanced. Eicher Motors lost 2.87% to Rs 391 despite reporting 38% rise in November 2006 sales to 2201 units. MSK Projects rose 3.52% to Rs 94.10 after the company bagged an order worth Rs 21.20 crore from Pimpri Chinchwada Municipal Corporation, Pune for improvement, maintenance and repairs of roads. I had asked some people who are holding to book some profits in the counter as fundamental do not support such a high price. Bharat Earth Movers lost 1.21% to Rs 1023.55. There are reports that it has signed a deal with US-based Terex Mining to manufacture and sell mining haul trucks in India and overseas. Readymade apparel major Pearl Global jumped 10% to Rs 137.55 after the company bagged an order H & M of Sweden and Netherlands for supply of knitted T-shirts, valued at about Rs 2.25 crore. Era Constructions slipped 0.18% to Rs 516.30 on volumes of 15 lakh shares. The company was awarded contract by National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for design, construction, development, finance, operation and maintenance of new 4 lane Gwalior Bypass of on BOT Annuity Basis (the 'project') in consortium with other members. The contract shall be executed by the company over a period of two and a half years and the total annuity per annum is Rs 53.06 crore during the concession period of Seventeen and half years. Mysore Cements rose 1.06% to Rs 66.65 after reports that Sebi may ask Heidelberg to hike open offer price to Rs 72.50 per share. Essar Steel advanced 3.22% to Rs 36.90 on reports that it is likely to buy an integrated steel company in Eastern Europe. Bharat Bijlee rose 1.21% to Rs 1204 after a block deal of 1.45 lakh shares was struck on the counter at Rs 1180 per share on BSE by 10:23 IST. The stock had surged to intra-day high of Rs 1275 just after the block deal was executed. J&K Bank gained 1.39% to Rs 548 after RBI allowed FIIs to purchase up to 40% in the bank. Plywood maker Greenply Industries jumped 7.59% to Rs 102.05 after the firm said it had signed a deal to sell carbon credits worth $5 million. The deal would add 500,000 euros annually to its revenues from FY 2007 to till 2012. Market sentiment remains strong due to strong FII inflow, continued strong economic data and robust corporate earnings. Firmness is likely to prevail in the near term, as traders will build positions on expectations of strong Q3 December 2006 results. The Nikkei average lost 37.83 points or 0.23% to 16,265.76 while the Hang Seng advanced 241.46 points or 1.29% to 18,944.19 Oil prices rose slightly Tuesday as traders watched US winter weather and anticipated further production cuts by OPEC nations. On Tuesday, light sweet crude for January delivery was up 16 cents to $62.60 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. US stocks rose on Monday as a string of corporate takeovers and lower oil prices boosted optimism about the outlook for profits. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 89.72 points, or 0.74%, to 12,283.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 12.41 points, or 0.89%, to 1,409.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 35.18 points, or 1.46%, to 2,448.39. The S&P 500 soared to a six-year high during the session, while the Nasdaq recorded its biggest one-day percentage gain in nearly a month, snapping a two-session losing streak. On 1 December 2006, FIIs were net buyers of stocks to the tune of Rs 349.30 crore (gross purchases worth Rs 1,872.30 crore and gross sales of Rs 1,523.10 crore) while domestic mutual funds were net buyers of stocks to the tune of Rs 304.33 crore (gross purchases worth Rs 666.34 crore and gross sales of Rs 362.01 crore). Market Mantra for 6th December, 2006: The markets will be buoyant as the International Factors look Positive. Wall Street rallied for a second straight session on Tuesday after easing wage pressures and stronger-than-expected service sector activity raised prospects that the economy could cool gradually and leave room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next year. Investors applauded Labour Department figures showing wages and benefits increased at a much slower pace in the third quarter than had been estimated. Recent concerns about inflation had eroded some hopes that the Federal Reserve would start lowering interest rates next year. The central bank has said inflation remains its primary concern. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group, found activity in the nation's services sector rose at a faster rate in November, giving a further boost to investor sentiment. An index reading of 58.9 was above the 55.5 that had been expected and and the 57.1 seen in October.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 47.75, or 0.39 %, to 12,331.60. Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 5.64, or 0.40 percent, to 1,414.76. The index hit a six-year high of 1,415.27. The Nasdaq composite index was up 3.99, or 0.16 %, at 2,452.38. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies climbed 1.57, or 0.20 %, to a new closing high of 797.42. The index also passed the 800 mark for the first time Tuesday, moving as high as 801.01.

Tomorrow buy Flat Products Equipments Ltd at the current price of Rs.104.1. The stock closed yesterday with a gain of around 3%. I have some wonderful news on the company. Also buy Soma Textiles Industries Ltd and Samkrg Piston & Rings Ltd. Also accumulate Conart Engineers Ltd & Gravity(I) Ltd on all declines.

Now the Catch: Read the following:

Stock Market ahead of US Dollar Market by 2(two) years – Extremely Bullish for Dollar and bearish for Gold: If you take the monthly long-term charts in the last 20 (twenty) years of US Stock market and US Dollar, you can see an interesting time lag. The dollar has done exactly what stock market has done but two years later. The same was true before twenty years but the lag was close to three years. Perhaps communication and technical economy has compressed the time lag. If that repeats, it is very bullish for US Dollar. The stock market bottomed out the end of 2002. The US Dollar bottomed out at the end of 2004. Since then stock have rallied 75%. If dollar rallies from here 75%, the dollar index in two years will stand above 120. The proportion of price movement in dollar and stock are not equal or proportional. The general trend is there with the time lag. The recent drop in dollar has created a huge negative sentiment in US Dollar. That is also bullish.

Now Flat Products Equipments Ltd (Rs.104), Samkrg Pistons & Rings Ltd (Rs.89), Soma Textiles Industries Ltd(Rs.29) and Tata Steel Ltd(TISCO) derive Substantial Part of their Revenues from the EXPORTS. Hence herein lies the real catch. Invest in all these companies for some speculative gains in the short term as the Dollar is all set to rise....Now, whether it will rise against INR is a question to be answered in the days to come, but it will invariably rise against Yen and Euro. [With Inputs from the Internet] Beste wishes, Suman Mukherjee India. www.eindiabrokers.com

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