Winning Strokes: Think Different 

The key equity indices barely managed to stay in the green on Thursday, with the Nifty just above 24,800, as the market rode a roller coaster thanks to the weekly F&O expiry. The Sensex added a mere 147.89 points (0.18%) to hit 81,053.19, and the Nifty 50 nudged up by 41.30 points (0.17%) to settle at 24,811.50. Broader markets took the lead, with the Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices gaining 0.67% and 0.47%, respectively.

While European and Asian markets celebrated the possibility of a U.S. rate cut like it was a long-lost friend, a sobering reality check arrived in the form of a massive downward revision in U.S. payrolls data—818,000 fewer jobs than previously thought. 

Cue the nervous laughter about a potential recession in the world’s largest economy. Investors are now anxiously awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, hoping for some clarity amidst the uncertainty.

#BLB Ltd (Rs.21.84) hit another Buyer Freeze. However, the stock exchanges have reduced the circuit limit and has put restrictions in day trade. 

Reducing the circuit limit to below 2% from ~5% just after few days of trade shows the bankruptcy of intellectual capital of those at the helm of the stock exchanges. There can be circuits but putting a speed breaker after every 10 metres on slight pretext, goes to show the (rotten) quality of brains working in the surveillance department of the BSE/NSE. Unfortunately, both the stock exchanges have not been performing well after the new SEBI chairperson stepped in. 

Furthermore, the website of NSE does not even show the closing price of the scrip. From the beginning NSE website has been worst in terms of design and content. The Bombay Stock Exchange, standing firm at Dalal Street, still stands tall among all the exchanges in India, however much NSE thinks to ecplise it. 

#The stock of Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd (Rs.41.16) hit the Upper Circuit yesterday. However, it might face headwinds to cross Rs.41/42 ranges. Hold!! 

#The stock of Vodafone Idea Ltd (Rs.16.20) has started to inch towards Rs.22/24/27/34 ranges. 

By the way, the telecom companies are expected to do exceptionally well in future due to fast change of Technology from 3G to 4G to 5G, enhancing the user experience and shifting a large part of the technology savvy audience from Television Segment to Internet based video streaming networks. This Aditya Birla group company, with government of India stake is sure to do well in future. Accumulate in dips. 

#The stock of Sarthak Industries Ltd (Rs.24.80) put up an impressive performance yesterday. The scrip made an intraday high of Rs.25.90 before closing, 4.55% in the BSE. I have recently recommended the shares after its good June, 2024 quarter results. It will invariably cross Rs.50, over a period of time. 

#I have taken some shares of NHPC Ltd (Rs.97.93) for my portfolio clients, considering its future growth trajectory. I have considered the 1st Target of Rs.109, followed by Rs.117. 

Now tell me at the moment, which according to you is a better investment option?

💢Tata Power Ltd (Rs.422.75) with Face Value of Re.1 (one) and P/E 42.57.

💢NHPC Ltd (Rs.97.93) with Face Value of Rs.10 (ten) and P/E of 23.88. Besides, NHPC Ltd is planning to add capacity at a massive 21% CAGR over FY24-27E, though a large part of it is only expected in FY27E. Nevertheless, share price of a company always moves in advance, like we had seen in Zomato Ltd. 

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#The stock of Devyani International Ltd (Rs.181.40) made an intraday high of Rs.182.80, before closing up 3.54%. I have already predicted when it was around Rw.169/Rs.170 that it will make a new 52 - week high in the coming days, due to the scintillating performance of its overseas business and due to the ensuring Festival Season kickstarting with Ganpati Festival in Mumbai and elsewhere. The stock has been on roll since then. Moreover, the company came out with good numbers for the June, 2024 quarter. Hold! 

#My recommended P C Jewelers Ltd (Rs.108.76) made a new 52 - week high Today. I have been recommending the scrip since it was around Rs.27. In this context keep a close eye on Rajesh Exports Ltd (Rs.298.25). 

Meanwhile, according to a report published in Business Standard on 26 July, 2024: Jewellers are now rolling in gold as buyers rush to stock up on bling, thanks to the government's shiny new import tax cuts on gold, silver, and platinum. With prices dropping faster than a bride’s bouquet toss, Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar is buzzing like a beehive, boasting a whopping 60-70% surge in customer traffic.

The government earlier slashed Customs duties on gold bars from 15% to 6%, and now gold dore gets away with just a 5.35% duty. Silver isn’t left out of the party either, with bars and dore now taxed at a cool 6% and 5.35%, respectively. This price correction has seen people rushing to jewellers like an alcoholic to a beer bar.

In Delhi, where jewellers previously saw tumbleweeds rolling through their shops, foot traffic has spiked by at least 50% since the Union Budget announcement. As Yogesh Singhal, chairman of the Bullion and Jewellers Association, quipped, “Customers are coming in; even if they aren’t buying, at least they’re browsing, which is more than we could say before the Budget.” And with the wedding season around the corner, it looks like the glitterati are gearing up for a golden October!

 Today's Call 

#Buy the shares of Plaza Wires Ltd (Rs.89.60) near the CMP for targets of Rs.117/ Rs.132.

Looking back, the past year brought a solid 9.5% increase in revenues for Plaza Wires Ltd. Impressively, revenue has grown by 38% over the last three years, helped by the recent 12 months of growth. Consequently, it's fair to conclude that the company's recent revenue growth has been exceptional.

#Buy the shares of MTNL Ltd (Rs.67.70) near the CMP for targets of Rs.100+.

In recent months, the government has shown a preference for transferring control of MTNL's operations to BSNL without officially merging the two companies. Reports suggested that this approach would avoid some of the logistical challenges of a merger, such as de-listing MTNL and buying back a certain number of shares, which in turn would be beneficial for the shareholders.

Recently, the MTNL announced that it has approved this plan, with the new agreement allowing BSNL to manage the operator for the next ten years. The deal has the potential to be renewed by mutual consent and can also be terminated by either party with six months' notice.

However, this solution comes with its own challenges -- the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) is currently investigating the tax implications of such an agreement, stating that they will not approve the deal until they are certain it will not lead to unexpected tax liabilities for the government. Having understood that, I feel there is no other better option at present to revamp the fundamentals of the MTNL.

So, whatever be the way, it is good to see that the NDA Government is taking steps to revive the health of the MTNL. 

When Charts Collide With Common Sense!!

Let’s start with a little wisdom:

"Investing in shares is an art, not a science."

We all know that technical analysis often feels like performing a post-mortem on stocks, while true investing requires foresight and correct analysis of the future variables. Photo: VectorStock.

In the vibrant world of stock market analysis, the debate between fundamentalists and technicians has been ongoing for ages. It’s like an old comedy act— remember Laurel and Hardy — but with a lot more financial jargon firmly planted on the space.

The fundamental analyst is akin to a seasoned sage, armed with balance sheets and income statements, whispering tales of profit margins and debt ratios. These are the experts who can discern whether a company is a goose ready to lay golden eggs or just another lame duck. 

Fundamental analysts are like doctors, constantly monitoring a company's health. They delve into financial reports, gauge earnings, and even probe management’s mindset, all in an effort to foresee whether the company has a prosperous future ahead.

And technical analysts? I feel they are the share market’s version of Sherlock Holmes. These sleuths who examine charts with the intensity of a detective -- analyzing every candlestick pattern. They’ll spot a head and shoulders pattern and proclaim, "The stock is about to soar—or maybe crash—depending on how they look at it!" They proudly flaunt themselves as the master of understanding the rhythm of the market 

In this  context let me share a little story about two stocks: Sakuma Exports Ltd (Rs.8.39) and Sarthak Industries Ltd (Rs.24.63).

When Sakuma was around Rs.10, a technical analyst confidently pointed to the chart, interrupted me in between and  said: "This stock could soar to Rs.12, since I glided through candlestick patterns and moving averages". 

"See that trendline?" 

"It’s pointing to a perfect pirouette to Rs.12!",  he quipped staring at my face.

Meanwhile, I’m standing in the wings, holding the voice of caution, advising against it. 

"Don’t put your money on Sakuma it looks highly overvalued at the CMP," I warned, time and again, "this rally might just be a mirage." 

And then what happened? 

The stock never took the leap to conquer Rs.10 on the upside, leaving our chart-loving friend staring at his screen, possibly questioning his career choices.

On the flip side, while the former looked to be costly, the case of Sarthak Industries Ltd (Rs.24.63), is just its mirror image; after it recently reported strong results for the June 2024 quarter. But did anyone notice? Not really!!

This happened, even though I gave a brief review of the company on this blog -- ironically,  traders and investor, chose to ignore my words. Probably they will buy when stock will hit Rs.40. It’s like the Suzlon Energy saga all over again. I recommended Suzlon at Rs.6.10, but my advice fell on deaf ears of the investors, some even questioning me about the debt of the company. The stock has already soared to Rs.81+. Suddenly, everyone’s on board! The irony is thick enough to slice with a knife.

Conclusion: In the grand arena of stock investing, fundamental analysis is like a skilled trapeze artist, calculating every move with precision and foresight. Technical analysis, on the other hand, often resembles the clown car—entertaining, unpredictable, and sometimes downright perplexing.

Sure, technical analysis might give you a quick thrill (or a moment of despair), but true investing requires you to be both an artist and a visionary, with enough common sense to sidestep the pitfalls on the trading floor. 

So, before you put your trust in the next chart that promises the moon, remember: stocks are more than just lines on a graph—they’re the unfolding stories of businesses. 

Finally, I reiterate when you’re deciding where to invest your hard-earned money, keep in mind: it’s not just about what the charts are saying; it’s about the future narrative a company is crafting, and whether or not you believe in that story.

 Today's Call 

Buy the shares of Sarthak Industries Ltd (Rs.23.91) for targets of Rs.31/37. 

Introduction: Incorporated in 1982, Sarthak Industries Ltd is engaged in manufacturing and repairing of LPG Cylinders and merchant trading of agri-commodities, mining and mineral based industry on opportunity basis.

Product & Services:

a) Industrial and household liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders of different weights

b) Trading of agro-commodities like vanaspati ghee, wheat, chana, Masoor, etc.

Manufacturing Unit:

Company's unit is located at Pithampur with a manufacturing capacity of 7 lacs cylinders per annum.

Clientele:

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd., Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. and also to private companies.

Revenue Breakup:

In Q1FY25 company generated revenue mainly from sale of LPG cylinders Rs.6.79 crore and Trading Business Rs.89 lakhs.

Source: Screener.

Financials:

The reported Standalone quarterly numbers for Sarthak Industries are:

Net Sales of the company came at Rs.7.62 crore in June 2024 down marginally by 2.29% from Rs. 7.80 crore in June 2023.

Quarterly Net Profit was seen at Rs.0.25 crore in June 2024 up a whooping 939.51% from Rs.0.02 crore in June 2023.

The EBITDA stood at Rs.0.57 crore in June 2024 up 72.73% from Rs.0.33 crore in June 2023.

Source: Money control.com.

Consolidated Numbers:

On consolidated basis, the total income of the company for the June, 2024 quarter came at Rs.8.44 crore Vs Rs.7.19 crore in Q4FY24 and Rs.8.67 crore in June, 2023 quarter.

The net profit of the company came at Rs.25.26 lakhs against Rs.2.43 lakhs in June, 2023 quarter and Rs.7.96 lakhs in the March, 2024 quarter, showing a significant improvement in the Bottomline.

Total Comprehensive Income for the June, 2024 quarter: Rs.26.98 lakhs Vs Rs.15.63 lakhs in March, 2024 and Rs.11.94 lakhs in the June, 2023 quarter on an equity capital of Rs.9.29 crore.

Reserves (excluding revaluation reserves): Rs.30.92 crore, which is more than 3 times its equity capital.

Market Jitters or Misunderstandings: The Queer Case of JP Associates Ltd (Rs.8.74) and MEP Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.8)...

In recent times, it appears that some traders are eager to exit scrips that have been placed under restricted trade by the exchanges. This behavior tends to create a ripple effect, influencing the mindset of other investors who may start to believe that something significantly negative is unfolding. Photo: Dreamstime.

I feel that many investors, are not familiar with the basic operations of the NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal) and the NCLAT (National Company Law Appellate Tribunal), and this seem to harbor misconceptions about the functioning of these two organisations. There’s a prevailing assumption that once a company is linked with NCLT, it signals the onset of the company’s demise or it is bankrupt.

The situation is exacerbated by the role of Hindi vernacular papers, which are notorious for stoking emotions on both ends of the spectrum. They frequently equate a company's entry into NCLT with व्यवसाय का दिवालियापन (business bankruptcy), which is a misleading interpretation.

Meanwhile, market operators seize this opportunity to manipulate investor sentiment through various WhatsApp and Telegram groups, playing mind games that can sway public perception. Off late we've witnessed this phenomenon across multiple scrips.

Unfortunately, the toothless SEBI looks the other way around while the operators continue with their games in various WhatsApp and Telegram groups.

 Today's Call 

#Speculative Buy: Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd near the CMP of Rs.40.30, T: Rs.47/51, SL: Rs.37.

 Brief Buzz

The trading in the shares of J P Associates Ltd (Rs.9.20) was restricted due to IBC. The stock hit the lower circuit in the last trading session, even though positive news abounds in the counter. This shows how maximum investors are guided by YouTube Videos which are prepared by amateurs. Let's recapitulate some of the recent events surrounding the company.

On June 3, 2024 the NCLT initiated insolvency proceedings against Jaypee Associates Limited (JAL) following a petition by a consortium of lenders led by ICICI Bank. The lenders turned to the NCLT because JAL failed to meet its financial commitments. Let's now take a few FAQs. 

Q. Why was the insolvency procedures initiated?

Ans. The insolvency process is intended to address JAL's debt challenges and find an appropriate solution for the creditors. 

Key issues included: 

💢 Dispute with land authorities.

💢 Principal repayment due in 2037. 

Q. How is J P Associates Ltd addressing the issue?

Ans. The company plans to refinance its debts and sell assets, including real estate and cement plants, and a Formula One racetrack to reduce its financial liabilities. 

Q. What are other methods, J P Associates Ltd's management is considering to cut down the debt in the short term?

Ans. Jaypee Group seeking high cost funding of Rs.10,000 crore from global credit funds such as Varde Partners, Area Cerberus, and Hillhouse to rescue its flagship company Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) from insolvency.

Q. Will it be able to get out of the NCLT initiated insolvency procedures?

Ans. Yes JAL might be able to exit the insolvency process, subject to creditor approval, under certain legal provisions.

Company Profile: Jaiprakash Associates is a leading infrastructure conglomerate in India, specializing in hydropower projects. It is the only integrated solution provider in this sector, known for strong project execution. The company also operates in cement, power, fertilizers, real estate, and hospitality.

In April, JAL planned to sell 150 acres along the Yamuna Expressway to raise Rs.15 billion to pay Yeida, but Yeida objected since 80 acres were already mortgaged. This land is part of the Sports City project, a major development along the expressway.

JAL proposed securing the outstanding amount against 150 acres, valued at Rs.27.6 billion, intending to sell or sublease the land within a year and deposit proceeds into an escrow account, with Yeida entitled to withdraw up to Rs.14.8 billion.

JAL's total borrowing is Rs.29,277 crore, with Rs.3,956 crore overdue as of April 2023. 

Positive Points: After restructuring and divesting its cement business, the debt could be nearly eliminated. JAL is contesting an insolvency case filed by ICICI Bank, with the matter pending alongside a proposed real estate transfer to a special purpose vehicle (SPV). Recently, JAL announced the sale of its remaining cement assets to Dalmia Bharat Ltd for Rs.5,666 crore to reduce debt.

Conclusion: When the price stabilizes or starts to move up, start accumulating the scrip of J P Associates Ltd, for targets of Rs.20+.

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (Rs.134.52)

I want to The likelihood of USD depreciation or appreciation against the INR depends on various economic factors and trends. Here are key considerations for each scenario. a few points here:

Q. What is the coupon rate of FCCBs?

Ans. The coupon rate is 5%, which will be applicable for 10 years. This is substantially lower than the 11%/12% PLR which is generally available in India. 

Q. What is the conversion price of FCCBs after 10 years?

Ans. The conversion price is Rs.160 per share. 

Q. What is the total consideration under FCCB?

Ans. The total amount is$239 million (Rs.1960 Cr).

Q. Is there any problem of equity dilution in the short term?

Ans. Let us first read the news on the topic from CNBC TV18 website:

The FCCBs will be issued to Resonance Opportunities Fund, St. John's Wood Fund Ltd. and Ebisu Global Opportunities, on terms and conditions mutually decided between the company and the 'proposed' investors.

Zee Entertainment further said that these FCCBs will carry a coupon of 5% per annum and will be unsecured and unlisted in nature with a maturity period of 10 years.

In case all the FCCBs are converted to equity, it will result in a post-money dilution of 11.7%. As of the June quarter, promoter stake in Zee Entertainment is currently at 3.99%.

In the short term there will not be  any issue of equity dilution. In future a rise in top and bottomlines of the company will take care of equity dilution (if any), especially when the June, 2024 quarter results are good.

Q. Does ZEEL have presence in OTT platform?

Ans. ZEEL has presence both in Television segment and the OTT platforms. ZEE5 is the brand new digital entertainment destination launched by Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. It is in OTT platform. 

Hence, if competition hardens in the TV space, it may shift a substantial chunk of its business or shift altogether to the OTT platforms. 

Q. What could be approximately price of the ZEEL shares after 10 years?

Ans. It is hard to predict its price after 10 years, however if we take an incremental INFLATION figure into consideration we could see a substantial rise in its share price (as a going concern) considering the current management guidance and their optimism.

Q. What does the company want to do with the FCCB?

Ans. This is an Irrelevant question, since such funds are generally used for the benefit of any company. Hope the management, under the able leadership of Puneet Goenka will utilise the funds to increase shareholders value.

Q. Since it is FCCB and hence it is affected by the USD ($) Vs INR (Rs) ratio. Will it have any adverse effect on the company?

Ans. If the USD ($) depreciates, it will generally benefit the Indian company that has issued Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs).

Reasons:

💢Lower Repayment Cost: FCCBs are denominated in USD ($), so the company needs to repay the bondholders in that currency. If the USD depreciates against the Indian Rupee (INR/Rs), the company will need fewer INR to buy the required USD for repayment. This reduces the overall cost of repayment.

💢Conversion to Equity: FCCBs have an option for bondholders to convert their bonds into equity at a predetermined conversion price. For example in this case the conversion price is Rs.160.

If the USD depreciates, the value of the conversion option may be less attractive to bondholders, as they might receive fewer INR for the same amount of USD. However, this primarily affects the bondholders and not the issuing company directly.

Overall, a depreciating USD will reduce the financial burden on the Indian company when it comes to repaying the principal and interest, thereby benefiting the borrower.

Q.  What is the chance of USD depreciation in future, considering the excessive money printed by fed?

Ans. There's a possibility that the USD could depreciate in the future if the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) continues to print a significant amount of money. Let's find out how:

💢Inflation Risk: When the US Fed prints more money, it increases the money supply. If this increase outpaces economic growth, it can lead to inflation, where the value of each USD decreases because there are more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services. 

This inflationary pressure can cause the USD to lose value relative to other currencies.

💢Decreased Confidence: Excessive money printing can lead to concerns about the long - term value of the USD. If investors and foreign governments lose confidence in the stability of the dollar, they may shift their investments to other currencies or assets, leading to a decrease in demand for the USD and, consequently, its depreciation.

A 15 July, 2024 edition of The Hindu says: "India and Russia have doubled their payments in national currencies (rupee-rouble) since last year despite sanctions by the U.S. and European Union, said Russia's largest, state-controlled bank Sberbank that handles a majority of payments for Indian exports to Russia". 

💢Interest Rates: To counter inflation, the US Fed might eventually raise interest rates. While higher rates can attract foreign investment (which might strengthen the USD), the timing and effectiveness of such measures are uncertain. If the inflationary impact of money printing is not contained, the depreciation risk remains.

💢Global Economic Factors: The USD's value is also influenced by global economic conditions, such as the strength of other currencies, geopolitical events, and trade balances. While money printing is a significant factor, it's not the only one that determines the USD's exchange rate.

In summary, excessive money printing by the US Fed could contribute to a future depreciation of the USD, especially if it leads to high inflation or erodes confidence in the currency. However, the actual impact will depend on a range of economic and policy factors. I believe there is more chance of USD depreciation than appreciation.

Q. If the USD depreciates then will the bond holders ask their money back or convert into equity? Which one is more likely?

Ans. If the USD depreciates, the decision by bondholders to either ask for their money back (redeem the bonds) or convert them into equity will depend on several factors, including the bondholders' expectations about the future value of the equity and the terms of the Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs). Let's look at the few hypothetical scenarios:

💢Redemption of Bonds (Asking for Money Back):

   💠Depreciating USD Impact: If the USD depreciates, the value of the repayment in USD decreases in terms of the bondholders' local currency. This might make bondholders more inclined to redeem the bonds, especially if they believe that the value of the equity (in INR) will not compensate for the loss due to currency depreciation.

   💠Risk Aversion: Bondholders who are risk-averse or unsure about the future performance of the issuing company’s stock might prefer to get their money back, especially if they expect further depreciation of the USD.

💢Conversion into Equity:

  💠Attractive Equity Valuation: If the company's stock is performing well or is expected to perform well, bondholders might opt to convert their bonds into equity. This could be particularly appealing if they believe that the potential gains from the stock market will outweigh the losses from the depreciating USD.

  💠Hedge Against Currency Risk: Converting into equity might also serve as a hedge against further depreciation of the USD. By holding equity in an Indian company, bondholders can benefit directly from any appreciation in the company’s stock, which might also appreciate due to a stronger INR.

Q. What if the USD appreciates Vs INR, then what option will the bond holders likely to take?

Ans. If the USD appreciates against the INR, bondholders will likely evaluate their options based on the following considerations:

💢Redemption:

   💠Higher Repayment Value: If the USD appreciates, the value of repayment in INR terms increases. Bondholders may find that redeeming the bonds is more attractive because they will receive a higher amount in INR compared to when the USD was weaker.

   💠Risk Management: For bondholders who prefer to avoid currency risk or seek a stable return, redemption might be preferred to secure the higher INR value now rather than potentially facing future uncertainties.

💢Conversion into Equity:

  💠Potential for Equity Growth: If the company's stock is performing well or is expected to perform well in future or is much above the agreed conversion price into equity bondholders might see potential for higher returns from the company's stock than from redeeming the bonds.

 💠Hedging Against Currency Risk: Conversion into equity could also be viewed as a way to hedge against further fluctuations in currency exchange rates, especially if bondholders expect continued volatility.

💢Bond Terms and Company Performance:

   💠Conversion Price: If the conversion price is favorable and the company’s stock is expected to appreciate, bondholders might choose conversion even with a stronger USD, as the potential gains from equity could outweigh the benefits of redemption.

  💠The Company’s Financial Health: The company’s performance and growth prospects will heavily influence this decision. A strong-performing company with good future prospects may make equity conversion more appealing despite the appreciation of the USD.

💢Market Conditions:

   💠Overall Market Sentiment: The broader market conditions and investor sentiment towards the company's sector can impact the decision. If the market outlook for equities is positive, bondholders might be inclined to convert.

The Summary:

💠Redemption: Bondholders might opt for redemption if the stronger USD results in a significantly higher INR repayment amount, especially if they prefer stability or are risk-averse.

💠Conversion: If the company’s equity offers promising growth prospects or if bondholders believe that converting into equity will yield better returns in the long run, they might choose to convert despite the stronger USD.

In essence, the decision will depend on the bondholders' assessment of the company’s future performance, their risk tolerance, and the comparative advantages of redeeming the bonds versus converting into equity.

Q. Which is likely for the USD? Appreciate or Depreciate?

Ans. Predicting the future movement of currencies, including whether the USD is more likely to depreciate or appreciate, involves considering a variety of economic factors and conditions. Here are some key factors to consider:

💢Points Supporting USD Depreciation:

      💠Monetary Policy:

    - Excessive Money Printing**: If the Federal Reserve prints too much money, it can lead to inflation and a decrease in the value of the USD.

         - Low Interest Rates: Extended periods of low interest rates can make the USD less attractive to investors seeking higher returns.

      💠Trade Deficits:

   - Continued Trade Imbalances: Large and persistent trade deficits can weaken the USD as more dollars are exchanged for foreign currencies.

💢Economic and Political Uncertainty:

   - Instability or Uncertainty: Political instability or economic challenges in the U.S. can erode confidence in the USD, leading to depreciation.

💢Global Economic Trends:

   - Rise of Other Currencies: If other major economies (like the Eurozone or China) strengthen their currencies or experience economic growth, the USD might weaken relative to these currencies.

💢Factors Supporting USD Appreciation:

     💠Interest Rate Differentials:

   - Higher Interest Rates: If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it can attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the USD and leading to appreciation.

💢Strong Economic Performance:

   - Robust Economic Indicators: Strong U.S. economic performance, including growth, low unemployment, and high consumer confidence, can strengthen the USD.

💢Safe-Haven Status:

   - Global Uncertainty: During times of global economic or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to the USD as a safe-haven asset, leading to appreciation.

💢Fiscal and Monetary Policy:

   - Effective Policy Measures: Strong and effective fiscal and monetary policies can support the USD.

💢Conclusion:

Predicting whether the USD will depreciate or appreciate is complex and influenced by many variables. Historically, the USD has shown both appreciation and depreciation trends based on shifting economic conditions and policy decisions. Keeping informed about current economic indicators and policy actions is crucial for understanding potential future movements of the USD.

 Today's Call and Other Information 

Buy the shares of NMDC Ltd near the CMP of Rs.213.30, T: Rs.151/Rs.270. SL: Rs.192.

NMDC is India's single largest iron ore producer. NMDC is operating four Iron Ore mechanized mines viz., Bailadila Iron Ore Mines – Kirandul Complex (Dep-14, 14 NMZ, 11B & 11C), Bailadila Iron Ore Mine – Bacheli Complex (Dep-5,10 & 11A) in the Chhattisgarh State, Donimalai Iron Ore Mine and Kumaraswamy Iron Ore Mine in the Karnataka State. Photo: Egov.

Incidentally, a bench led by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud in a recent verdict allowed states to collect past dues in the form of royalty and tax from April 2005. The Chief Justice said that the time for payment of demand for tax shall be staggered in installments over a period of 12 years, starting April 1, 2026.

However, according to a report in CNBC TV, the three states who had earlier levied this kind of cess are: Odisha, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu. Hence, as per my understanding, NMDC Ltd will not be affected by this Supreme Court order. 

#The shares of BLB Ltd (Rs.18.39) Freezed in the NSE. I have good holding in my portfolio accounts. 

I have been recommending the scrip since sometime, especially when it fell around Rs.17.10. Buy scrips based mostly on Fundamentals and less on Charts.

#Buy the shares of ZEE TV Ltd (ZEEL) near the CMP of Rs.134.90, for targets of Rs.160/172. I am expecting an upgrading of the stock post raising of funds through FCCB.

However, on the negative side, in case all the FCCBs are converted to equity shares, the proposed equity shares that stand to get diluted will be 12.46 crore with a face value of ₹1 each at a conversion price of ₹160.2 per share. 

On the positive side the conversion price is more 15% premium to Zee Entertainment's CMP

#On the other hand issues related to J P Associates Ltd (Rs.9.22) and MEP Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.8.45) are on the verge of settlement, according to my close sources, who refused to be named.

#The shares of Devyani International Ltd (Rs.171) have again started its upward movement. You can take fresh positions in the counter. We can look for targets of Rs.200+ in the coming weeks, as Festival season is approaching.

 Today's Call 

Buy the shares of Integra Essentia Ltd near the CMP of Rs.4.67, for targets of Rs.7/9. SL: Rs.3.97.

Last month, Integra Essentia announced that the board of directors had approved the scheme of amalgamation of Integra Essentia (transferee company) and G G Engineering (transferor company).

The report further said: Integra Essentia shall issue and allot 48 equity shares of face value of Re.1 each to equity shareholders of G G Engineering for every 100 equity shares of face value of Re.1 each held by them in the transferor company.

G G Engineering specializes in producing high-quality infrastructural and structural steel, as well as engineering products, which are utilized in various sectors, including infrastructure, construction, large-scale projects, modern buildings, and high-rise residential and commercial developments. The merger will bolster the infrastructure division of G G Engineering, enhancing its operational efficiency and market competitiveness. The goal is to broaden the range of combined products and expand the customer base, both domestically and internationally.

Financial Performance Update: In the first quarter of FY24-25, Integra Essentia Ltd reported a impressive performance. 

The company's sales rose by 56.47% to Rs.86.06 crore for the quarter ending June 2024, as per a stock exchange filing. Net profit for the quarter saw a significant increase of 107.63%, reaching Rs.2.45 crore, compared to Rs.1.18 crore in the same period last year.

In the previous quarter, the company's net profit had soared by 250% year-over-year (YoY) to Rs.5.91 crore. Additionally, the company's total income for the first quarter increased by 40% YoY to Rs.100.6 crore, up from Rs.68.1 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

Company Profile: Integra Essentia operates in the Life Essentials sector, offering a wide range of products and services essential for modern living. These include Food (Agro Products), Clothing (Textiles and Garments), Infrastructure (Materials and Services for Construction and Infrastructure Development), and Energy (Materials, Products, and Services for Renewable Energy Equipment and Projects), along with many other products and services that support contemporary life.

Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Ltd and other Information  

Yesterday, I took some shares of Sadbhav Infra Project Ltd (Rs.7.60) and also sent this message on Facebook and Twitter (X). The stock initially hit the Upper Circuit, only to open few minutes later, when I believe most of my well-wishers could enter. 

Brief description: Roads are the backbone of any economy, and India's rapid growth has heightened the demand for a robust road infrastructure. While public funds alone cannot meet the needs for upgrading National Highways, the government of India has adopted a policy to involve the private sector through Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects. 

Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited (SIPL), a subsidiary of Sadbhav Engineering Limited (SEL), was established in 2007 as an asset-holding company for road and infrastructure BOT projects. 

SIPL focuses on the development, operation, and maintenance of road infrastructure, aiming to build a sizable asset base in the road BOT sector. With less competition in the BOT Roads and Highway sector, SIPL is in a strong position to win projects with desired returns in future.

Currently, SIPL manages 10 BOT projects, covering a total of 2595.92 lane kilometers. Of these, six are operational, one is partially operational, and three are under development.

Financials: Net Sales of the company came at Rs.174.33 crore in March 2024 up 11.03% from Rs.157.01 crore in March 2023. 

Quarterly Net Loss was at Rs.95.40 crore in March 2024 down 127.89% from Rs.342.06 crore in March 2023, which is very encouraging.

However, the EBITDA stood at Rs.81.52 crore in March 2024 down 44.04% from Rs.145.67 crore in March 2023. I'm looking at a target of Rs.10+ for the scrip.

#In May, 2024, there was a news report in The Times of India, that: "Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) has issued a public notice to auction on May 7 four confiscated properties, worth around Rs.30 crore, of former toll contractor MEP Infrastructure Developers Ltd (Rs.8.43) in Mumbai". 

There was another report on the same page saying: "In March, MCD had issued a public notice for the attachment of over Rs 3,900-crore assets and properties belonging to the company for non-payment of toll dues.".

Now there are few points here I would like to mention:

💢There are a whooping 31 subsidiary companies of MEP Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.8.45). I have reports that it's tool tax collections are going on smoothly at Airoli (New Bombay) and Dahisar (Bombay) tool Nakas (plazas).  

💢The company has more than 17+ years of experience in Toll Collection in 15 states in India with 3000+, workforce.

Brief description: Maintenance of, and collection of toll at, the five Mumbai Entry Points along with 27 flyovers and certain allied structures on the Sion–Panvel Highway, the Western Express Highway corridor, the Eastern Express Highway corridor, the Lal Bahadur Shashtri Marg corridor and the Airoli Bridge corridor. Collection of toll at five entry points into Mumbai consisting of five toll plazas at Airoli, Vashi, Dahisar, Mulund on Lal Bahadur Shastri Marg and Mulund on Eastern Express Highway.

Period of contract: 20.11.10 to 19.11.26 (means upto November, 2026).

The company is currently going through Debt restructuring and hence we need not have to worry much.

#Devyani International Limited, a quick service restaurant (QSR) operator, had recently released its financial results for the quarter ending June 30, 2024. The company, which operates KFC and Pizza Hut outlets in India, reported a 44.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase in revenue, reaching ₹1,221.9 crore in the June quarter, up from ₹846.6 crore in the same period last year.

Revenue in the first quarter also grew sequentially by 16.7%, rising from ₹1,047.1 crore in the fourth quarter. KFC India contributed ₹555 crore, Pizza Hut India brought in ₹182 crore, and Costa Coffee added ₹45 crore to the total.

Devyani International Limited posted a net profit of ₹22.43 crore in the June quarter, a significant improvement from the loss of ₹1.59 crore recorded in the previous year. This also marks a strong sequential recovery, following a loss of ₹48.95 crore in the last quarter.

The season of this sector will kickstart with Ganpati Festival in Mumbai and elsewhere. The Brokerage House Nuvama has given a target of Rs.208 for the scrip.

#The shares of P C Jewelers Ltd (Rs.95) hit another Upper Circuit and Buyer Freeze. We can look for target of Rs.97/99, in the short term. The Jewelry stocks have been rising due to the fall in gold prices.

The shares of the Financial Services Firm BLB Ltd (Rs.17.81) is trading near the 52 - week low price. I am expecting a satisfactory June, 2024 quarter results. The targets for the scrip till Durga Puja are Rs.27 and Rs.31.

Unfortunately, the stock is languishing in the T - group since a long time, even though there is hardly any activity in the counter. The SEBI should explain the reasons for executing such a behaviour with certain scrips listed in the BSE/NSE. 

By the way, the perfomance of the surveillance department of the BSE/NSE has been going from bad to worse. The NDA government should clarify the causes for such absymal functioning of the two leading domestic bourses.

Update on MEP Infrastructure Ltd and other information

#The stock of MEP Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.8.89) got suspended temporarily due the action by the surveillance department of the stock exchanges, under the provisions of IBC. 

It is to be noted that the National Company Law Tribunal had earlier initiated the corporate insolvency resolution process (CIRP) against MEP Infrastructure Developers Ltd on a plea filed by Bank of India and appointed an interim resolution professional to take control of the company. 

Meanwhile, according to a report in ET, MEP Infrastructure is contemplating to submit a plan under section 12A of the IBC and seek settlement with the lenders. Hence, there is no cause for worry.

#The shares of 63 Moons Technology Ltd (Rs.364.14) is available at a good price. You can accumulate them in phases.

#The shares of J P Associates Ltd (Rs.10.24) has hit another buyer freeze. Keep accumulating in market dips, as a big story is floating in the counter.

#Devyani. International Ltd (Rs.178) has come up with good, June quarter numbers. The stock would soon cross Rs.200. Stay Invested.

#A big corporate story is unfolding in Adani Wilmar Ltd (Rs.377). We can look for targets of Rs.600+ in the coming months.

 Today's Call 

Buy the shares of MEP Infrastructure Ltd (Rs. 8.77) for targets of Rs.17 and Rs.21. 

On 17 June, 2024 the ET reported quoting its Chairman that,  MEP Infrastructure Developers (MIDL) will submit a plan under Section 12A of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and seek a settlement with lenders. 2nd Photo: The Economic Times.

Average/Accumulate the shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd (Rs.15.15), J P Associates Ltd (Rs.9.76), Moons Technology Ltd (Rs.483), Adani Wilmar Ltd (Rs.372) in any market dip.

Meanwhile  Devyani International Ltd (Rs.173) came out with impressive set of numbers for the June, 2024 quarter. 

The company has reported a consolidated net profit of Rs.22.4 crore in Q1 FY25 as against a net loss of Rs 1.6 crore in Q1 FY24. Revenues from operation increased by 44% year-over-year to Rs.1,221.9 crore in the June’24 quarter. Accumulated!

#The selling in Indian bourses is basically due to unrest in Bangladesh. The government of India is keeping a close eye on the situation. I hope the things will get streamlined soon, with effective measures implemented by the Hasina Wazed government in Dhaka.

 Today's Call and Other Information 

#Buy the shares of Adani Wilmar Ltd near Rs.375/Rs.377, for intraday target of Rs.383.15 (Upper Circuit) and Rs.457 an Rs.660 for the short term.

Billionaire Gautam Adani's flagship entity Adani Enterprises on Thursday approved the demerger of the company's food FMCG business to Adani Wilmar.

"It is believed that the proposed demerger will unlock the direct value of the demerged company’s shareholders into the resulting company and allow a focused strategy and specialization for sustained growth for enhanced value, which would be in the best interest of all the stakeholders and the persons connected with the aforesaid companies," Adani Enterprises said in an exchange filing. Photo: Value Research.

#According to my sources, there are some good news for the shareholders of Debock Industries Ltd (Rs.7.60). 

After the exit of one of the promoters, now the business has shifted to the pragmatic hands of the gentleman, Mr.Manveer Singh. He is amiable, dynamic and business minded. We can pin our hopes on him.

Furthermore, once the new company merges with Debock Industries Ltd, then it might propel the stock to Rs.31/32. The new company I'm told has a Resort and is making a Race Course in Jaipur. The new company is tentatively to get merged before the next Deepawali, once it gets the required NCLT clearance.  

The mining from Granite Mines were scheduled from July, 2024, but is yet to commence. 

Moreover, the recent Union Budget's stress on agriculture is positive for this company. During the Budget 2024 presentation, the finance minister Smt. Nirmala Sitaraman, announced an allocation of ₹1.52 lakh crore for the agriculture sector. Additionally, the minister stated that the government plans to introduce 109 new high-yielding, climate-resilient seeds for 32 different field and horticulture crops.

Caveat: Some of information presented regarding Debock Industries Ltd, are source based news and hence you should confirm them from your contacts.

#The 1st Target of Parsvanath Developers Ltd (Rs.17.44) has been achieved as the stock. hit the upper circuit. You should book some profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.16.65.

#The shares of J P Associates Ltd (Rs.9.30), a world class company in the infrastructure space has hit the Upper Circuit. The stock unnecessarily fell from dizzy heights, especially when fresh bidding is expected to take place for its cement division. We can look for targets of Rs.12/17.

#Every dip should be used to accumulate the shares of the Aditya Birla group company, Vodafone Idea Ltd (Rs.16.28). Today it fell to Rs.15.75, where the prudent investors might have accumulated. 

Vodafone Idea Ltd has a total of $26 billion in outstanding debt, almost all of it owed to the Indian government for spectrum purchases. So any positive response from the NDA government, could push up the scrip to new 52 week levels.

Furthermore, you have to check the promoters list to understand the pedigree of the company. We have a target of Rs.50 - plus in the coming months. 

 Today's Call and Other Information

#By the shares of KFC India operator Devyani International Ltd (Rs.181.06) for targets of Rs.109/Rs.117. SL: Rs.172. 

The company remains optimistic about witnessing a recovery over the next few quarters and is confident of reaching 2,000 stores by the end of calendar year 2024. Photo: Devayani International Ltd.

#The morning call on J P Associates Ltd (Rs.8.44) saw it hit the Upper Circuit. The call was given when the scrip was at Rs.8.40. 

T₁: Rs.12,

T₂: Rs.17.

There is as such NO major negative news in the counter, except the debt overhang.  Now Fresh Bidding will take place for its cement division.

#The shares of 63 Moons Technology Ltd (Rs.384) is consolidating around the current ranges. It needs to give a close above Rs.387, for further upmove.

#The shares of Swan Energy Ltd (Rs.759.30). I had earlier give a target of Rs.1000, when it was available around Rs.210.

#The stock of BLB Ltd (Rs.18) can spurt anytime from now. Accumulate with a SL of Rs.16. 

#The stock of Vodafone Idea Ltd (Rs.16.39) has started to move in a range. Keep accumulating, it for targets mentioned earlier. 

The most striking point in the scrip is that: the government of India is holding substantial stake in the company. It is likely to be another Suzlon Energy Ltd (Rs.69), which if you remember, I recommended it around Rs.6.10, when most of the investors were not ready to buy the scrip -- some were even coming up with scary debt stories at that time. Now, all of these men have suddenly vanished.

#I waiting for the June, 2024 quarter results of Rajesh Exports Ltd (Rs.314). I am expecting some improvement in the Q1FY25 results, atleast in the topline. Meanwhile, the promoters have hiked their holdings in the counter. The work is going on for the completion of Lithium-ion battery factory at Dharwad, Karnataka.

Porinju Veliath: The Downfall of His Boldest Stock Call

Porinju Veliath, the charismatic stock market maven whose predictions in the mid, small, and micro-cap spaces once enthralled investors and traders on Indian bourses, has seen his star fall faster than a penny stock in a rising bull market. That's the price you pay for excesses in the share market.

💢Remember GVK Power & Infrastructure? At Rs.6.34, it’s making new 52-week lows. Porinju, in his heyday, boldly forecasted a target of Rs.27/29. Alas, the stock barely touched Rs.17, despite his relentless endorsements on various business channels. Sure, it hit an all-time high of around Rs.80 some 15 years ago, but those glory days are long gone.

💢The Hyderabad - based power and infrastructure company GVK Power & Infrastructure, dabbling in power, roads, urban infrastructure, bio-science, hotels, and manufacturing, was once heralded by none other than Porinju Veliath as the next Rs.1,00,000 crore giant. Fast forward to today, with a current market price of Rs.6.34, it barely scrapes together a market capitalization of Rs.1,001 crore. That's what happens when you go on a debt binge—things go south faster than a stock tip from a dubious guru.

Porinju Veliath, who once owned the stock, has since distanced himself from it. However, the damage has already been done,  GVK Power & Infrastructure has tumbled spectacularly from grace and investors lost money.

💢It seems the savvy investing crowd has caught on to his game of stock manipulation. After questioning his dubious recommendations, like Archies Ltd., I found myself blocked on Twitter—a badge of honor, perhaps.

💢Once, media channels couldn't get enough of him. At the drop of a hat, they'd roll out the red carpet for his so-called "STRONG Recommendations." Following that, YouTube videos would come at lightning speeds.

But after the spectacular flameouts of some of his top picks, their enthusiasm has waned. I suspect these business channels may have been swayed by financial incentives—after all, we live in an era where "paid news" isn't just a conspiracy theory but a business model.

💢Investors, especially those dabbling in small and micro-cap stocks, should tread carefully. Porinju Veliath's fall from grace in one of his highly recommended counters serves as a cautionary tale: the market is as much about careful analysis as it is about glitzy endorsements.

As the legendary investor Warren Buffett often advises, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Buffett's success stems from diligent research, a focus on fundamentals, and a long-term perspective. He warns against following the herd and stresses the importance of understanding the businesses you invest in.

Key Principles of Stock Investing:

1. Do Your Homework: Before investing, thoroughly research the company. Understand its business model, financial health, competitive landscape, and growth prospects. A well-informed decision is less likely to be swayed by market noise.

2. Focus on Value, Not Hype: Invest in companies with solid fundamentals and intrinsic value. Avoid getting caught up in market fads or hot tips that lack substantial backing.

3. Diversify: Spread your investments across different sectors and asset classes to mitigate risks. Diversification helps cushion against market volatility and unforeseen downturns in specific industries.

4. Think Long-Term: Successful investing requires patience. Focus on the long-term potential of your investments rather than short-term gains. As Buffett says, "Our favorite holding period is forever."

5. Stay Disciplined: Develop a clear investment strategy and stick to it. Avoid emotional decisions based on market fluctuations. Discipline helps in maintaining a balanced portfolio and achieving long-term goals.

6. Understand Your Risk Tolerance: Assess your risk tolerance and invest accordingly. High-risk investments can offer high rewards but also come with significant losses. Ensure your investment choices align with your risk appetite.

7. Beware of Speculation: Distinguish between investing and speculating. Investing is about buying shares in a company with the expectation of long-term growth, while speculation is akin to gambling on short-term market movements.

Conclusion: It's a jungle out there, folks. Investing in stock tips from strangers, no matter how charming or seemingly knowledgeable, can be perilous. The stock market is rife with pitfalls and sirens luring you with promises of quick riches. Beware of the sweet talk and glittering targets; they often mask the harsh realities of market volatility and the risks of following tips blindly. Do your due diligence, question boldly, and remember that no one—no matter how persuasive—has a crystal ball.

As the story of Porinju dims on the stock market horizon, may it remind us all to invest wisely and question boldly.

 Winning Strokes: Think Different 

The Indian markets are on a roll, after the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2024-25 which focused on employment, skilling, MSMEs, and the middle class. The rally in the coming days is expected to become more broad-based -- picking up momentum in the small and mid cap space. The two very important development we witness in the budget 2024 are:

💢Provision of Rs 11.11 lakh crore (3.4% of GDP) for capital expenditure.

💢Aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit below 4.5% next year and and maintaining a declining central government debt-to-GDP ratio from 2026-27 onwards.

Proposing an investment of Rs 10 lakh crore, including Rs.2.2 lakh crore in central assistance, over the next five years under PM Awas Yojana Urban 2.0 to address the housing needs of 1 crore urban poor and middle-class families. This is positive for the real estate companies which are into affordable housing.

Post Budget 2024, the mutual fund managers have been recommending three sectors where you can park your fund: 

💢 Infrastructure.

💢Banks and Financial Sector.

💢 Consumption.

I have already recommended few stocks in the space among them are: J P Associates (Rs.8.50), Reliance Infrastructure (Rs.190.70),  Paytm Ltd (Rs. 494.55), Dhanlaxmi Bank Ltd (Rs.43.13) and Parsvnath Developers Ltd (Rs.11.97). 

My old recommendation, A2Z Infra Engineering Ltd (Rs.19.46) around Rs.5, has already given multibagger returns. I recommended when the ace Investor Shankar Sharma had just exited his holding in the company.

In the consumption story the stocks like: Rajesh Exports Ltd (Rs.313.40) and Vodafone Idea Ltd (Rs.15.98), Sarthak Industries Ltd (Rs.22.83), Eros International Media Ltd (Rs.19.40) is coming to my mind at the moment. These are my old recommendations. I'm expecting the scrip of Rajesh Exports to start doing well from H2FY25.

Meanwhile, Narendra Modi government who is a major stake holder in the company is making a killing in the shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd. It acquired its stake in Vodafone Idea Ltd at ₹10 per share, above the then market price of ₹6.85; as per Companies Act regulations. It was a very prudent move of the NDA government at the correct juncture.

The markets are expected to maintain positive momentum in the coming days, with the rally slowly turning into broad-based. The investors are suggested to cut down on speculation and buy scrips which has a story to tell. 

JP Associates Ltd (Rs. 8.50) and Buyer Freeze Syndrome

JP Associates Ltd has been enjoying a series of Buyer Freezes lately. Interstingly, when stocks surge, everyone becomes a market sage armed with lofty targets coupled with an array of postive vibes. 

But when they stumble or when the share starts hitting continuous Seller Freezes, it's all doom and gloom out there in the bourses — a phenomenon Rakesh Jhunjhunwala famously called "Analysis Paralysis." 

I've seen this play out with my earlier recommendations too like: Premier Explosives Ltd at Rs.29/30, Suzlon Energy Ltd at Rs.6, Swan Energy Ltd at Rs.210, and Wockhardt Ltd at Rs. 170, to name a few. These stocks have turned into multi - baggers over time. 

Incidentally, the real issue arises when some folks in stock market start comparing option trading gains to equities—apples and oranges, guys! Don't get confused!

Meanwhile, some of you have asked me, about JP Associates Ltd’s targets. Honestly:

💢 I have no clue why it plunged from such dizzy heights. The acronym, NCLT probably kicked in the fear psychosis.

💢 2ndly, with Adani reportedly interested in its cement division, who knows where it could go?

I'll post a brief review on my blog today, factoring in the latest news and budget updates, if time permits. Keep an eye on the blog update, after 7 pm.

Good morning and have a fantastic Sunday!

 BLB Ltd (Rs.18.05): An Emerging Opportunity in the Share Market

Recent intel from my reliable sources in Delhi indicates that the proposed open offer price of Rs.22.50, which surfaced in January 2024, was ultimately rejected by both parties due to procedural and other undisclosed issues. 

However, these setbacks have not deterred the company's outlook, as it is poised for a promising performance starting this quarter, according to the sources who preferred to remain anonymous.

By the way, as the shares of numerous brokerage houses are climbing in sync with the Sensex, this particular stock has the potential to be a standout performer. It is advisable to accumulate this stock close to the company, as it is expected to gain momentum imminently. Photo: Economic Times, March 2024.

Price Targets:

💢First Target: Rs. 32

💢Second Target: Rs. 37

So, dear investors, it appears the stage is set for this stock to steal the spotlight and dance its way up the charts. Keep an eye on it, for you never know when the music might start and the share price might just waltz to new heights. Happy investing, and may your portfolios be ever in your favor!

Important: Some shares where virtually there's hardly any activity, like sloth on a lazy Sunday, is  languishing in the T - group for months; for some reasons as mysterious as the Bermuda Triangle.

I would like to reiterate and emphasize that, since the arrival of the new Chairperson, the performance of SEBI and its Surveillance Department have been very abysmal and worrisome. 

Therefore, the Government of India should step in, plug the loopholes and rev up their engines to get things back on track.

The recent Telecom Tariff Hike was comparable to what money would have earned in Bank FDs..

Interest charged by banks and financial institutions is like a premium on your idle money, or in simpler terms, it's the rent you pay for letting your money change locations from your pocket to theirs.

Recently, telecom companies hiked their tariff plans after a three-year pause, much to the chagrin of many Indians. However, these recent hikes, ranging from 17-19%, coupled with the natural growth in data usage thanks to the 5G wave, are expected to push the industry average revenue per user (ARPU) to a decade-high of Rs.225-230 by fiscal 2026, up from Rs 182 in fiscal 2024, according to CRISIL Ratings. Photo: The India Times.

CRISIL Ratings also noted that, along with a reduction in capital expenditure due to fewer network investments following the completion of 5G roll-outs and limited spectrum renewals, the return on capital employed (RoCE) will improve. This will support deleveraging in the industry, thereby enhancing credit profiles. Prior to this, the telecom companies had raised their mobile tariffs in November 2021.

Now the question remains: was the telecom Tariff hike too steep. Let's examine:

Suppose we have Rs.1000, how much time would it take to double the amount with an existing interest rate of 8% for one year FDs? ====================

To find out how long it takes for an investment to double with an 8% annual interest rate, we can use the formula for compound interest:

 A = P (1 + r/n) ⁿᵗ ------ (1)

where:

- A,  is the amount of money accumulated after ( t) years, including interest.

- P, is the principal amount (the initial amount of money).

- r, is the annual interest rate (decimal).

- n, is the number of times that interest is compounded per year.

- t, is the number of years the money is invested for.

Here:

A = Rs.2000

P = Rs.1000 

r = 0.08 (or 8% per year)

n = 1 (We have taken it as compounded annually. If it is compounded monthly or weekly the figure would be different)

We need to solve for "t" (The time period the principal sum gets doubled). Putting the values in the equation (1) we get:

2000 = 1000 (1 + 0.08/1)ᵗ,

=> 2 = (1+ 0.08)ᵗ

Taking natural logarithm (ln) of both sides:

ln (2) = t * ln (1.08),

=> t ~ 9 years.

It will take approximately 9 years for Rs.1000 to become Rs.2000 at an 8% annual interest rate, compounded annually.

This means if anyone had kept the money in Banks it would have earned at ~26% (25.97%) interest in 3 - years. 

Remember we have taken PLR for calculation. The companies takes loan at a  much higher intes rate. So, considering those cases, was the telecom Tariff hike too high or less or fine ? 

Do let me know your views, either in this website or in the socal media platforms where I am active (Facebook and Twitter basically).