## "Our soldiers are standing at the border, why can't you stand in queues?"

Over 55 people, it is said, have died standing in bank queues in the last 15 days, but demonetisation's cheer leaders haven't stopped throwing this line at all and sundry.

If you counter this argument, you've had it.

It's possible a defamation case will be filed against you and you could even be charged with sedition, so my advice is, turn a Beethoven's ear to this argument.

## "Those who oppose demonetisation are anti-national".

Says who?

Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, that's who.

Point noted, Mukhya Mantriji. I support demonetisation.

Now please courier my "Desh Bhakti Certificate", to my home?

Or shall I come over to collect it from you in person?

I await your patriotic response.

Yours sincerely,

Aam Aadmi

----- Syed Firdaus Ashraf, 23 November, 2016.

Friday, December 02, 2016

Narendra Modi's demonetisation: A Monument of Chaos & Confusion....
According to some media reports, though lndia's GDP grew at the fastest pace for a large economy in the September quarter, the nation could experience some amount of uncertainty in the third quarter of fiscal 2016-17 due to the government of India's (led by the BJP -- Bluffers' Party of India..?) decision to demonetize Rs.500 and Rs.1000 currency notes. Also, the Contraction in capital investment deepened further.

India's Gross domestic product (GDP) clocked an annual 7.3% growth between July and September, faster than 7.1% in the previous quarter and higher than China's 6.7%.

It is pertinent to mention here that, Reserve Bank of India posted this notice on November 8:

Government of India, vide their Notification number 2652 dated November 8, 2016 have withdrawn the Legal Tender status of ₹ 500 and ₹ 1,000 denominations of banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series issued by the Reserve Bank of India till November 8, 2016.

This is necessitated to tackle counterfeiting Indian banknotes, to effectively nullify black money hoarded in cash, and curb funding of terrorism with fake notes.

Let us now observe what Patrick W. Watson, wrote in  Forbes, 1 December, 2016:

This whole idea of a “cashless society” used to be a kooky fringe belief. Conspiracy promoters said jackbooted government thugs would kick in your door any minute and confiscate all your vegetables.

Guess what: the kooks had a point. People in high places really do want to take away your cash, or at least most of it.

I , for one, will oppose this (if they bother to ask my opinion). People with criminal intent will find other ways to keep their businesses hidden. Eliminating cash would create hassles for everyone, for no real benefit.

Modi’s “demonetization” turned into a mess. The government’s sudden decision to withdraw large-denomination currency from circulation, has caused enormous hardship to millions of people in the country’s predominantly cash-based economy.

Lines formed at banks, with people waiting for days, only to find the bank ran out of smaller bills. Those without bank accounts had no way to make routine transactions. Already impoverished people had to spend their work time waiting to exchange their money. New bills intended to replace the old ones were scarce.

The results spread through the economy like wildfire. Merchants lost sales because customers couldn’t pay. Some resorted to barter. Media reports suggest restoring normal commerce could take months.

A few people reportedly died, most of them elderly citizens waiting outside banks for days, but also some overworked bank employees.

Analysts are already saying the sudden contraction will hurt economic growth. Economists at Ambit Capital cut their 2017 GDP growth estimate almost in half, from 6.8% to 3.5%. They think the effects will last into 2018, too.

With consequences ranging from disruptive to fatal, why would any government do something like this?

Friday, November 18, 2016

India to go cashless?
These days after the ill conceived demomitisation drive of the "Copy - Paste" Narendra Modi government, lot of stories are being spun to make India, a country where still more than 25 crore population struggles to get two square mills a day, Cashless -- a sort of Utopia, in the prevailing socioeconomic conditions.

The Modi brigade has suddenly becomes aficionados of "Plastic Money". 

However, it is to be remembered that in India more than 80% of the financial transactions are done through cash. The current "Tughlaq-ian" policy has suddenly brought this system to a standstill.

There is no 100% cashless economy in the world. Moreover among the 150 - plus, small and big countries, only a few Scandinavian and African countries,  apart from UK and Canada has gone for partial cashless; with Sweden topping the list.

However, Germany, a super power in Europe is one such place where the usage of cash is still very popular. Places like cafes and small restaurants actually refuse to accept cards.

It is no surprising that like in many earlier cases, the Narendra Modi brigade focuses, only that part of the whole story which suits their clandestine designs.

It is to be remembered that Debit Card companies normally charge 2% on any transaction, while in case of Credit Cards there are yearly fees, in additiom to the interest charged for exceeding the credit period.

So, the Modi government is trying to put additional financial burden on Indians; through advertisement blitzkrieg.

Additionally, this (demon)etisation drive has already dented the image of India, among the nations of the world, as many foreigners have started to think that Indians horde huge "Black Cash" in their homes, while in reality it is not more than 6-10% -- what a stark way to score self-goal...!!

Also, if the (demon)itisation is such a "HOLY" and wonderful step to cull "Black Money" in India, then why did a 2012 CBDT report advised the then government against the move and more importantly why did the BJP oppose the move in 2014..?
India to go cashless?
These days after the ill conceived demomitisation drive of the "Copy - Paste" Narendra Modi government, lot of stories are being spun to make India, a country where still more than 25 crore population struggles to get two square mills a day, Cashless -- a sort of Utopia, in the prevailing socioeconomic conditions.

The Modi brigade has suddenly becomes aficionados of "Plastic Money". 

However, it is to be remembered that in India more than 80% of the financial transactions are done through cash. The current "Tughlaq-ian" policy has suddenly brought this system to a standstill.

There is no 100% cashless economy in the world. Moreover among the 150 - plus, small and big countries, only a few Scandinavian and African countries,  apart from UK and Canada has gone for partial cashless; with Sweden topping the list.

However, Germany, a super power in Europe is one such place where the usage of cash is still very popular. Places like cafes and small restaurants actually refuse to accept cards.

It is no surprising that like in many earlier cases, the Narendra Modi brigade focuses, only that part of the whole story which suits their clandestine designs.

It is to be remembered that Debit Card companies normally charge 2% on any transaction, while in case of Credit Cards there are yearly fees, in additiom to the interest charged for exceeding the credit period.

So, the Modi government is trying to put additional financial burden on Indians; through advertisement blitzkrieg.

Additionally, this (demon)etisation drive has already dented the image of India, among the nations of the world, as many foreigners have started to think that Indians horde huge "Black Cash" in their homes, while in reality it is not more than 6-10% -- what a stark way to score self-goal...!!

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Important
1. Those who have still now not sold the
shares of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (Rs.14.05) can continue to hold with a SL of Rs.11.70 for earlier mentioned targets of Rs.18-21. The property prices in Hyderabad and Vijayawada are showing some buoyancy amidst all the doom and gloom in NCR, MMR, Bangalore, Pune, Kolkata, etc. How this opportunity is utilized by the Prajay management to effect a turn around, remains to be seen.

2. The shares of RCom should soon break out from the current levels and move towards Rs.53-54. The investors are suggested to have a little patience. Some of the analysts with qhom I spoke during the last couple of months have more or less given a target of Rs.72, for the scrip.

3. Shrenuj & Co hit another buyer freeze at Rs.3.65. The investors are suggested to book some profit.

4. With lot of fanfare, the Mumbai based operator S P Tulsian recommended MBL Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.105) and Jai Corp Ltd ( Rs.72.55). But once both the stocks started to underperform, he and his pet channel CNBC TV18 are found nowhere. Pump and Dump..? Photo: Dynamic Levels

5. Those who are holding Vedanta Ltd (Rs.215) from Rs.61-62 levels can book 80% profits a d hold the rest with a SL of Rs.196.

6.Those who have entered Texmaco Rail Ltd should hold with a SL of Rs.107. Since the budget date will be advanced, we can expect the share to touch Rs.141-142, in the next couple of months.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

"Muhurat" Picks and Other Stocks
First of all, let me wish you all a very happy Deepawali and Kali/Lakshmi Pooja. These days, I am too busy with some Bollywood (and other) Assignments, which calls for frequent change of locations and therefore,  I mostly update this blog from my mobile and Tab. The things at my end are likely to get streamlined from the 2nd week of next month -- till then please bear with me.

The Samvat 2072 was very challenging as the Nifty fell from around 8000 to 6900 during the first four months.

However, post budget day, it had a secular bull run with Nifty gaining around 8% during the whole of Sambar 2072; mid and small caps outperforming their larger peers.

The Indian markets at present are on a Bull Run inspite of the global headwinds like Brexit, talks of a rate hike in the US, Crude Oil meltdown and most importantly, a destabilizing northern frontiers; where the Indian defense forces are struggling to contain streams of terrorist inflow from across the border.

Meanwhile, we have seen a cut in fiscal and current account deficits, accompanied by low inflation and a somewhat stable INR. Moreover, the reversal of interest rate trajectories and good monsoon after a gap of couple of years, have raised hopes of further travel of Nifty towards the North. 

In Samvat 2073 too, I expect this bullish trend to continue as the NDA government continues with its reform agenda, which is likely to catapult a continuous money flow towards the Indian shores; both through FDI and FPI/FII. Recently there are market gossips that the FMO is examining the proposal to cut corporation tax by 1-2%.

Besides, with bond yields on the decline, there is an expectation that retail investors would gravitate towards stocks from fixed income instruments. This also has contributed to higher interest among investors to look for stocks that would deliver good returns over a 12-month horizon.

It is pertinent to mention that, India is among the few countries which has a GDP growth of above 7%; a figure which has led even the DIIs to keep their money taps pouring, on the Indian bourses.

In this condition, I continue to remain bullish in some of the beaten down sectors, like Telecommunications, Banking, Construction (not real estate), Engineering, Upstream Oil companies and Gems and Jewelry sector, apart from FMCG, Steel, Power and Auto. I am recommending two scrips as "Muharat" Picks:
1. Buy Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd at around Rs.110-111, for a short term target of Rs.139-141.

2. Buy Tata Coffee Ltd at Rs.127-128, for a target of Rs.145.
Tata Coffee has reported an 85-per cent growth in profit during July-September quarter at Rs 24 crore as against Rs 13 crore, a year ago. The Coffee production in India for 2016-17, post blossom, was estimated at about 320,000 metric tonne, lower by eight per cent, compared to 348,000 metric tonne in 2015-16 (final estimate).

Updates on my previous recommendations:
1. The investors can book some profits in Shrenuj & Co at around Rs.3.32 and complete profit in Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd at around Rs.14.50-15.50. Though the land prices in Hyderabad and especially in Vijayawada are showing some buoyancy, but Prajay Engineers Ltd like many Hyderabad based companies have a questionable management; so unless you are a too risk taker it is better to book short term profits and invest in better pedigree companies.

2. Those who are still holding my recommended J P Associates Ltd (Rs.11.15) and Unitech Ltd (Rs.6), should book complete profits and exit the counters, as the real estate markets in NCR and MMR are likely to collapse further due to over supply and high base prices. The unsold inventories continue to rise as the Builders are finding extremely difficult to come out of debt traps; as it seems the buyers are continuing to exit real estate space, in these two regions.

3. Those who are holding MBL Infrastructures Ltd (Rs.104.95) and RCom (Rs.46.80) can continue to add on declines for targets of Rs.150-170 and Rs.72, respectively.

MBL Infrastructures Ltd is engaged in execution of civil engineering projects across the country. The company has integrated business model for EPC and BOT projects. Photo: The Hindu Business Line.

4. Those are still holding my recommended Tata Steel Ltd from Rs.217 levels can look for target of Rs.425, where they can book complete profit and wait for dips to enter.

5. Those who are holding my recommended BHEL from Rs.92-106, can continue to add for the long term with a SL at Rs.131.

6. Those who are holding my recommended Vedanta Ltd from Rs.61-62, can look for short term targets of Rs.210-212.

Friday, October 28, 2016

Do You know...?
Mr.Amar Singh and Anil Ambani were once in the same party, viz, SP of Mulayam Singh Yadav, isn't it?

Now it is interesting to note that while shares of Energy Development Company Ltd of Amar Singh (in which once Amitabh Bachchan held stake) raced from Rs.19-20 to Rs.220 plus in one year, RCOM (Rs.45.95) is still a laggard.

I feel with Mukhesh Ambani now firmly behind RCom (Anil said Reliance Communications Ltd has virtually merged with RJio Infocom of Mukhesh Ambani) and Both the brothers suddenly becoming Narendra Modi fans, I don't think this dichotomy can continue for long.

Amar Singh, the powerful "Thakur" from the UP is a friend of Ambani Brothers, especially the Junior one.....

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Important
1. My recently recommended Prajay
Engineers Syndicate Ltd (Rs.12.40) is hitting new high. The investors can hold the scrip for targets of Rs.18-21. The buoyancy in the real estate market in Telengana and Andhra Pradesh is positive for the counter.

2. MBL Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.102) is likely to
come up with good set of numbers for the September quarter.

Among the smaller companies in the infrastructure space, road player MBL Infrastructures is well placed to gain from the improving outlook.

For one thing, MBL Infra has not followed an aggressive strategy unlike some of its peers. In the build-operate-transfer segment, the company has four road projects under implementation.

Two of these have a relatively lower risk, being on an annuity model, where the road developer receives fixed half-yearly payments from the state or national highways authority and is not subject to the volatility of traffic flow.

MBL has one completed BOT project on which it is collecting tolls.

The other BOT projects will become operational over the next few months.

The second reason MBL is well placed to grow is because it simultaneously undertakes pure construction of roads on a contract basis, or as EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) projects for third parties.

Thirdly, MBL is an early mover in operations and maintenance of completed roadways, a segment with strong potential and accounting for 15% of its order book.

Fourthly, MBL has diversified from roads into segments such as railways, where there are now many opportunities.

Industrial and residential buildings are the final segment MBL operates in. The company is now looking into booking construction contracts in port development and connectivity through joint ventures.

Thanks to its EPC business, MBL sales have been growing.

Over the past 4 years, revenues have grown over 15% on a compounded annual basis. In December, 2014, MBL Infrastructure Ltd managed to raise Rs.117 crore in equity through institutional placements balancing its heavy debt to an extent.

The investors are suggested to accumulate the scrip of MBL Infrastructure Ltd on declines.

3. BHEL recommended around Rs.106.15 in March, 2016 has already given more than 40% return during this period. Short term investors can hold the scrip with a SL of Rs.136-131.

4. Those who have booked short term profit in Jai Corp Ltd around Rs.75, should wait to see if it breaks Rs.72 and comes down to Rs.67-69, for taking fresh positions.

5. Those who are holding the shares of Reliance Communications Ltd (47.10) should accumulate as much as possible. The rally in RCom will probably start post Deepawali.
This company is now virtually merged with RJio, apart from its formal merger with Systema  and Aircel. "The spectrum auction did not attract any bids for the highly expensive 700 MHz band, implying that Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited (unrated) and Reliance Communications Limited (Ba3, review for downgrade) -- which have a spectrum-and-infrastructure sharing agreement -- will remain the only players with access to pan-India spectrum in the sub 1 Ghz band," a recent Moody's report said. "Longer term, the spectrum which the operators secure will help them maintain their competitive positions, support their strategies on data growth and enhance cash flow generation.

Their high debt burdens may also pave the way for recapitalisation events and further industry consolidation, which will in turn ultimately benefit those incumbents well positioned in 4G," the report noted.
It is now a massive company and it is your sheer luck that you are getting the shares of RCom at dirt-cheap price of Rs.47-48. Aggressive investors can sell gold/real estate and invest in the stock.

6. Vedanta Ltd (Rs.203) recommended around Rs.60-62, has given a stupendous returns to patient investors. The long term investors can still hold the stock for targets of Rs.217-221, SL: Rs.191.

7. Those who are still holding the shares of Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.78.79), can book some profit and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.75.

8. Those who are holding the shares of Shrenuj & Co Ltd (Rs.2.85) can continue to hold till Deepawali, with a SL of Rs.2.70.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Important
1. Buy Sure Shot: MBL Infrastructure Ltd at Rs.106.55, T: Rs.125 -- 132, SL: Rs.97.

2. Short term traders can book some profits in Jai Corp Ltd (Rs.74.80).

3. Increase your holding in RCom (Rs.47.35) for a Short term target of Rs.54.

4. The infrastructure sector should do well post monsoon -- so remain heavy.

Friday, October 14, 2016

Navi Mumbai and Jai Corp Ltd
Photo: Twenty22--India
The land prices in  Navi Mumbai are shooting up due to:

(i) the proposed international airport near Ulwe,

(ii) the proposed trans-harbour sea link between Navi Mumbai and Shewri, south Mumbai. After its completion,  commuters will be able  reach Nariman Point from Panvel in mere 30 minutes.

(iii) the metro linkage between Navi Mumbai airport and Belapur. In future this metro project is likely to extend up to Chembur via Taloja and Vashi,

(iv) due to Navi Mumbai Sez.

The Financial Express writes on 3 October, 2016:

Navi Mumbai is now also connected via the eastern freeway in Chembur to Nariman Point in south Mumbai.

With real estate costs that are nearly as competitive as those in Gurgaon, Pune or even some pockets of Bengaluru, Navi Mumbai is staking a claim to become the next big IT hub. 

The direct beneficiary would be Jai Corp Ltd (Rs.71), which has large land holdings in Navi Mumbai and Mumbai Sezs apart from its traditional business. Anand Jain of Jai Corp is a close associate of Mukesh Ambani, who also owns land in Mumbai Sez.

I feel it is pertinent to mention here that S P Tulsian of www.sptulsian.com earlier told CNBC-TV18 that: "In the land bank, Navi Mumbai SEZ has 4,100 acre and Mumbai SEZ has 4,600 acre in which Jai Corp is having interest. With this trans-harbour link, Sewri to Navi Mumbai, that will give a good value to that land. Still things are there, regulatory clearance and all that conversion from SEZ, but this company is holding minority stake in that and that will definitely be seen quite positive."