NRI remittances seen rising in short-term

The $60 billion-odd Dubai debt crisis could spark an increase in remittances from Dubai, in the short term, as uncertainty and nervousness spook the NRIs confidence in local banks in Dubai.

However, a section of analysts says that remittances could see a slowdown in the medium term, due to job losses arising out of the impending debt restructuring of the beleaguered institutions.

The financial crisis in the short term might lead to a flight to safety of investments from Dubai, said Mr Amit Rathi, MD, of Anand Rathi broking firm.

Indian banks may witness a marginal increase in inflows as the non-resident Indians in Dubai look to shift their surplus money into safer markets, he added.

The inward remittance into India last year was approximately $50 billion, according to RBI figures. Out of this Dubai's share is around 24 per cent, said bankers.

Mr C J George, MD, Geojit Financial Services, said that in the short term income arising out of remittance or investment services could see an increase, due to the rise in inflows into India from Dubai.

However, Mr K Harshan, Executive Director, Federal Bank, said there is no rationale for this argument. All the blue-collared workers remit their money home on a regular basis while the wealthy expatriates use wealth management agencies to invest in other countries.

"The money in Dubai is only for the working needs of the people there. There is no investment in Dubai,'' he said.

Instead, he said that in the next six months there could be a dip in remittances due to job losses. Companies such as like Nakheel, which employ several labourers from countries such as like India and Bangladesh, could see lay-offs, as they carry out debt restructuring, he explained.

Mr George also said in the long term Dubai could see a slowdown in investments which, in turn, could hamper further job creation. This would also result in slowdown in remittances.

Geojit Financial Services is the only Indian broking firm having operations in Dubai.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Nothgate Technologies Ltd hit the 3rd consecutive buyer freeze. Yesterday the stock moved up with huge volume and ulitmately  hit the buyer freeze. If sources are to be believed, then this time the stock could cross Rs.100 (Yes you have heard it right---rupees one hundred). This stock was repeatedy recommended in this blog, as a super duper multi-bagger. More such multi-baggers are coming for the Paid Groups in future.

The Paid Members and those free members who were on my Yahoo Messenger were asked to accumulate the scrip yesterday. During the market hours when the Sensex was down around 350 points, the message was sent through Yahoo Messenger to cover their shorts. The next was history, the markets recovered to close at some respective levels. The fact that the Nifty is above 4900 is much solace for many of the bulls. The investors were also asked to accmulate HDIL at Rs.300 and Orbit Corporation Ltd yesterday, during the market  hours through Face Book.

Today also Sanguine Media Services Ltd moved up with good volumes. Yesterday also the stock clocked good volumes. What is interesting is that 98.65% were delivery based buying.

Phoenix Inernational Ltd was asked to be accumulated during the market hours when the stock came out of the circuits,  yesterday. Needless to say that the stock hit the buyer freeze. I  hope many paid members were able to accumulate the scrip during the market hours.

This blog got the highest number of hits yesterday, surpressing the previous day's high of 895 (Eight hundred ninety five) hits in the last 24 hours. This is the highest number of hits per day (or in the last 24  hours) since inception, more than 3 years ago, just on an experimental basis.

India Inc dispels Dubai debt fears

Stock markets skidded today, commodity prices took a beating, Kerala panicked and even Bollywood worried as Dubai’s $60-billion debt woes sparked fears over corporate and bank exposure to the crisis. Indian companies and banks played down the impact, saying the exposure was not significant.

The banking regulator and the government, too, also tried to calm sentiments stating that impact looked marginal. However, the Reserve Bank of India asked for data from banks on their exposure to Dubai World, the centre of the crisis.

While RBI played down the issue, it emerged that Bank of Baroda (BoB) had an exposure of around $200 million (Rs 928 crore at today’s rates) to Dubai World. “The amount is due for repayment only after 2011. So, we have no immediate concern,” a senior bank executive said.

State Bank of India officials said they had only $50 million exposure to Dubai World and there was no reason to worry over the “low” exposure.

The Bombay Stock Exchange after opening at 16,718.80 slipped to a low of 16,210.44, down 645 points from the previous close. The panic seemed to subside after the opening of the European bourses, which led to the late recovery in the Indian markets. DLF, ICICI Bank clarified on exposure to Dubai.

Some analysts played down the impact on the markets, saying the money involved was not as big as in some other cases in the past. However, valuations of some real estate initial public offerings set to hit the market may come under pressure.

The importance of the Indian link to Dubai can be gauged from the fact that Indians constitute 40 per cent of its population, forming 10-12 per cent of India’s inward remittances. Thirty one per cent of 5.3 million Indians in the gulf region are in the UAE.

The financial crisis in Dubai may not affect remittances sent by Indian expatriates in Gulf, policymakers and economists said, though Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council felt there could be a slow-down. “Remittances from expats did not suffer when the larger crisis was on. So whether this should have an impact in terms of employment, salaries and remittances is unlikely,” said finance secretary Ashok Chawla.

Global commodities experienced steep fall today as investors and hedge funds across region unwound their long positions following the crisis. Most commodities were down 3-5 per cent as dollar strengthened. [From Internet]

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Northgate Technologies Ltd hit another buyer freeze with good volume. I have been continuously recommending the scrip in this  blog.

Even today, Sanguine Media Services Ltd even today did not break Rs.3, which is a very good sign and indicates the strength of the share. The shares of the company should be accumulated for some sure shot gains in the next 6 to 9 months time frame as Q3FY10 and Q4FY10, results are expected to be excellent.

Phoenix International Ltd hit another buyer freeze today as the company focussed into new business. The company is into leather business.

Energy Developments Company Ltd moved up by 4.81% even as the markets tanked by more than 344 points. Today a note was sent in the Face Book: The Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission (KERC) on Wednesday increased the power tariff by an average of 34.16 p a unit, which roughly works out to a hike of 7.5 per cent as against the 51 p increase sought by the electricity supply companies (Escoms). The new tari.ff will come into effect on December 1, 2009. The transmission tariff has also been increased from 19.42% to 26.67%. This is definitely a good news for the Power Production companies or the company which are into distribution of power. Energy Development Company Ltd, has some projects in Karnataka which includes the 1.5 MW Wind Power Plant at Hassan in Hassan District of Karanataka.

 Koutons to consolidate business, expects increase in rev

Retail firm Koutons India today said it is planning to consolidate its businesses by amalgamating various chains under the format-- Koutons family stores.

The company is also expecting to increase its revenue by 32-35 per cent this fiscal. "Our focus is to consolidate and expand to make available all our products under one single roof as a part of this we will be upgrading our exclusive mens stores into 'Koutons family stores' which will provide our entire range," Koutons Retail President Balvinder Singh Ahluwalia told PTI on the sidelines of Franchise India Summit 2009 here.

 He said the company will upgrade 100 Koutons men outlets into family stores by end of this fiscal.

 Besides, the company is also expanding its retail chain to 1,500 outlets by March 2010.

 "We will be opening 100 more stores this fiscal to take our retail chains strength to 1,500 stores from the existing 1,400 outlets," he added.

Asked about the companies likely turnover this fiscal he said "last year we had a turnover of Rs 1,000 crore and this year we are looking to grow by 30-35 per cent."

He further said the company would focus on its recently launched 'k2one' range of casual denim wear as part of its growth strategy.

Note: THIS BLOG RECEIVED THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF HITS (The number of page visits in the last 24  hours) YESTERDAY, TILL ITS INCEPTION ALMOST 3 (three) YEARS  BACK--thanks to all for your support.

Reopening of fuel pumps fuels rally in RIL

Reliance Industries rose 2.16% to Rs 2223.15 at 11:20 IST on reports the company has reopened 900 fuel stations which were shut down when state firms were selling heavily subsidised fuel.

On BSE, 4.05 lakh shares were traded in the counter as against an average daily volume of 10.78 lakh shares in the past one quarter.

The stock hit a high of Rs 2225.90 and a low of Rs 2175 so far during the day. The stock had hit a 52-week high of Rs 2490 on 19 May 2009 and a 52-week low of Rs 1033 on 2 December 2008.

The stock had outperformed the market over the past one month till 24 November 2009, rising 6.29% as compared to the Sensex's 1.91% fall. It outperformed the market in past one quarter, gaining 10.22% as against 9.61% rise in the Sensex.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalisation has an equity capital of Rs 1643.12 crore. Face value per share is Rs 10.

The current price of Rs 2223.15 discounts the company's Q2 September 2009 annualised EPS of Rs 93.78, by a PE multiple of 23.70.

In March last year, Reliance Industries (RIL) had to shut down company-owned pumps as subsidised sale by state oil marketing firms made private sales unviable. The government subsidises fuel sales to control inflation.

Essar Oil, another private refiner, and RIL had together captured about 17% of domestic retail market for diesel and accounted for 10% of petrol sales by 2005 before heavily subsidised sales by state-run firms knocked them out of the market.

When crude oil prices more than halved in three months from their $147 a barrel peak scaled in July 2008, retail sales by private firms became viable again.

The government forces state-run oil explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) to supply cheap crude to government-run oil marketing companies, who were also given oil bonds to compensate them for low-priced fuel sales.

Meanwhile, rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) said on Tuesday, 24 November 2009, that acquisition of the Netherlands-based LyondellBasell Industries will provide limited benefits to RIL.

The consolidated financial metrics of RIL could weaken over the next 12 months if it proceeds to acquire LyondellBasell, S&P added.

Earlier this week, RIL offered to take a controlling interest in LyondellBasell Industries when the latter exits bankruptcy. If a deal is struck, it would reportedly create a global energy and chemicals powerhouse with nearly $80 billion in combined revenue. LyondellBasell is the world's third-largest chemical maker, and both companies have oil-refining operations.

Luxembourg-based LyondellBasell filed for bankruptcy protection in January 2009, unable to meet its debt obligations after demand dropped for petrochemicals products during the global economic downturn.

RIL said it is reviewing a number of global opportunities for growth in its core business including LyondellBasell. The Indian firm said its offer is preliminary and subject to customary conditions including conduct of due diligence, documentation and receipt of creditor support.

RIL was suspected to be looking for overseas acquisition after the company raised Rs 3,188 crore by selling its treasury shares recently. The company had cash reserves of Rs 18,000 crore as on 30 September 2009.

RIL had been reported to be looking at certain distressed assets of LyondellBasell, but the offer makes clear that Reliance wants to take advantage of all the company's operations. LyondellBasell would help RIL with distribution networks in the key markets of the US and Europe, so the purchase is about more than just petrochemicals, reports suggested.

LyondellBasell was created in 2007 when Dutch chemical company Basell International Holdings BV paid $12.7 billion to buy Houston-based Lyondell Chemical Co. Basell is a division of Access Industries Inc. LyondellBasell is owned by ProChemie GmbH, a joint venture of Access Industries Inc. and Pro Chemie Holding.

LyondellBasell's unsecured creditors have filed suit alleging that Basell's 2007 buyout of Lyondell left the company with unmanageable debt, setting it up to fail. That could reportedly become a complicating factor as Reliance tries to reach a deal with LyondellBasell.

Meanwhile, RIL has set 27 November 2009 as record date for a liberal 1:1 bonus share issue. After market hours on 8 October 2009, RIL had announced a 1:1 bonus issue. Earlier, Reliance Industries (RIL) had issued a 1:1 bonus in 1997, 3:5 bonus in 1983, and 3:5 bonus shares in 1980.

Mukesh Ambani's RIL is embroiled in a legal feud with his brother, Anil Ambani, over pricing for natural gas stemming from the breakup of Reliance's businesses when the brothers determined they could no longer work together after their father died in 2002.

The Supreme Court commenced fresh hearings on 5 November 2009, in a natural gas supply dispute between the Ambani brothers after a Supreme Court judge withdrew from the hearing on 4 November 2009.

The apex court has been hearing the dispute over the supply of 28 million units of gas for 17 years at $2.34 per unit to the Anil Ambani-led Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) from the gas fields off the Andhra Pradesh coast, awarded to Mukesh Ambani's RIL.

The price, tenure and quantity were all based on a family re-organisation pact in 2005, but RIL subsequently said it can only sell the gas for $4.20 per unit, as this was the price, the company claimed, that was fixed by the government.

RIL began production at the D6 block in the Krishna-Godavari basin off India's east coast last April 2009 and is currently producing about 42 million metric standard cubic meters of gas a day.

RNRL wants gas to be delivered to the later at $2.34 per million metric British thermal unit (mmBtu), based on some contractual agreements. But RIL says it can sell gas only at the government-mandated price of $4.20 per mmBbtu.

Reliance Industries manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

Reliance Industries' net profit fell 6.4% to Rs 3852 crore on a 4.8% increase in sales to Rs 46848 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. Gross refining margins (GRM) fell to $6 a barrel, the lowest in at least five years, in Q2 September 2009 from $13.4 a barrel in Q2 September 2008. The GRM is the difference in the price of refined product and the cost of buying crude. [From Internet]

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Northgate Technologies Ltd hit the buyer freeze in the opening trade with good volumes. The stock has been constantly recommended in this blog due to some important developments in the company.

Sanguine Media Services Ltd generated good volume today as the stock closed flat. The company is expected to come up with very good results in Q3FY10 (December, 2009 quarter).

SAAG RR Infrastructure Ltd mentioned in the latest Sunday Report sent to the Paid Groups as a strong buy, even as one of the noted operators from Bombay had given a sell call in one of the Bombay based publications, hit the 2nd consecutive buyer freeze. It needs guts to recommend a scrip when others are giving sell calls.....

Atlanta Ltd recommended to the Paid Groups around Rs.77--80, today closed at Rs.150.55. When I recommended the scrip a couple of months back many were apprehensive of my recommendations.

Phoenix International Ltd hit the 2nd consecutive buyer freeze. The company came out with better than expected results for Q2FY10. The company is thinking of venturing into new business.

NEPC India Ltd closed flat after mild profit booking was advised in the counter. On the other hand most of the Paid Members were also to exit the stock of HDIL due to some recent developments. The messages were sent through Yahoo Messenger during the market hours.

If you want these kinds of mind boggling returns please accumulate, Country Club India Ltd, Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd, Glory Polyfilms Ltd, Refex Refrigerants Ltd, Sanguine Media Services Ltd, etc. With the growth in economic activity, the Real Estate Sector has started attracting investors. Notably, Mutual Fund houses which were shying away from taking any exposure seem to be slowly lining up to take stakes in realty companies. Further, given that realty stocks have been amongst the best performers on the stock price front over a period of one year, it comes as no surprise that there are now at least half a dozen fairly large realty companies queuing up with their IPOs. This could help boost sentiment across the sector.

The US Stocks rise following drop in jobless claims

Drop in weekly jobless claims, rise in sales of new homes lift investors' hopes for economy.

NEW YORK -- Stocks climbed Wednesday following a drop in weekly unemployment claims to the lowest level of the year and a rise in new home sales.

The market's gains were modest on light trading volume ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

The government said new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 35,000 last week to 466,000. That's the fewest claims since September last year, and better than the 500,000 that economists had expected.

The drop in claims suggests the job market is healing, but concern remains that the improvement will be temporary as the weak economy continues to push unemployment higher. The jobless rate hit 10.2 percent in October and many analysts believe it will keep rising before starting to improve next summer.

In other economic reports, new home sales rose 6.2 percent to an annual rate of 430,000. That's above what economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected.

Separately, the government also reported consumer spending rose a brisk 0.7 percent last month, following a 0.6 percent drop in September. It was the best showing since August, when the government's now-defunct Cash for Clunkers programs enticed people to buy cars.

Not all the day's news was upbeat. Orders for expensive manufactured goods dropped 0.6 percent last month, the first drop since August. Economists had expected orders would grow.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research in Shrewsbury, N.J., said investors are still worried about the sustainability of a recovery but are afraid of missing more of the market's eight-month rally.

"People may not believe in this market but they're reluctantly being pulled into it with each of these reports," he said.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 30.69, or 0.3 percent, to 10,464.40.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 4.98, or 0.5 percent, to 1,110.63, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 6.87, or 0.3 percent, to 2,176.05. [From Internet]

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Expo Gas Containers Ltd starts trading again after being out of the markets for a brief period due to face value adjustments. The stock hit the buyer freeze on the opening trade. The Company came out with very good results for the Q2FY10. The stock at the CMP of Rs.13.5, is trading at a considerable discount to its peer, Artson Engineering Ltd.

NEPC India Ltd which is engaged in a bitter tussle to get its due of Rs.800 Cr from Anil Ambani's ADAG Group today touched Rs.9.69, today. As mentioned earlier the company has started operation in its 3-star hotel in Chennai (Madras) which is situated just opposite of Tamil Nadu State Assembly. The company expects to get lot of revenues from the counter as the 3-star hotel is situated in the heart of the city of Chennai (Madras).

Alchemist Realty Ltd is expected do well in the days to come in view of better than expected results in Q2FY10. I have placed a report on the company at SumanSpeaksPlus: www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com

Also the Government may do away with lock-in period for foreign direct investment in the REAL ESTATE SECTOR. Tata Realty and Infrastructure achieves financial closure for 110-km Pune-Solapur highway; project cost estimated at 13.70 bln rupees. I am very bullish on the HDIL and Orbit Corporation Ltd.

Cheap dollars stoke boom in India, Asia

Mr.S A Aiyar

It's hard to remember the gloom and doom in India nine months ago. The Sensex had crashed along with real estate and commodities. The IMF spoke of a negative feedback loop, whereby a credit shortage caused a production shortage, which led to bankruptcies and a further credit shortage, in a vicious downward cycle.

Nine months later, the stock market has almost doubled. Real estate companies once regarded as insolvent crooks are able to raise millions of dollars. Commodity prices have shot up. Investors are behaving as though another party without end has begun. Bubbles are inflating everywhere, with no sign of caution induced by the bursting of the last bubble.

Some analysts fear that the bubbles will burst very soon. India, China and some other countries may have recovered, but western countries face a distinct risk of a double-dip recession. Housing is again in the doldrums in the US, and foreclosures continue to rise. A record number of US banks have been seized and closed down by the regulator. Commercial real estate is heading for a massive bust, endangering real estate financiers. Unemployment looks like rising to 11% or more.

Many western countries registered positive growth in the last quarter, leading to hopes that the recession has ended. But the latest data warns of the possibility of a second downward dip. Analysts fear that a double-dip recession can erode confidence and generate new panic, causing bubbles to burst across the globe.

I think the danger of that is close to zero. Markets in the West have already factored in the possibility of a double dip. Regulators everywhere are aware of and prepared for that risk. Indeed, the mad rush of dollars into emerging markets is occurring precisely because investors believe that growth prospects are far better in emerging markets than the West. Over $15 billion has flooded into India this year.

No doubt the bubbles inflating today will burst eventually. But they will continue inflating for a long time because the US will, for the foreseeable future, keep flooding the world with dollars at virtually zero interest. To check the possibility of a double-dip recession, the US Federal Reserve looks certain to follow an easy money policy for a long time. Economists like Paul Krugman are calling for a fresh fiscal stimulus to avoid a double dip. Finance Ministers in all western countries are emphasizing the need to avoid any early exit from the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2008: they fear unemployment and recession much more than future bubbles. So, the flood of dirt-cheap dollars is going to continue for a long time.

Some Americans worry that this will eventually cause inflation. Maybe so, but the US Fed is far more worried about the possibility of deflation (systematically falling prices) caused by a double-dip recession. Japan in the 1990s suffered economic stagnation for a decade because of deflation, and the US is determined to avoid that path. The Fed will happily risk inflation in order to avoid deflation. So, it will keep interest rates at virtually zero for the foreseeable future.

What happens when the Fed increases money supply by over a trillion dollars, and lends at virtually zero interest? The dollar is an international currency whose impact is felt across the world. Investors and speculators everywhere know that growth prospects are much better in emerging markets than in the West. So they are borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars at dirt-cheap rates to buy stocks, real estate and commodities in emerging markets.

Hence, asset bubbles are inflating not just in India but in all emerging markets. The MSCI emerging markets index is up 71% in dollars this year, the biggest gainers being Brazil (140%), Russia (127%), Indonesia (105%), China (102%) and Turkey (90%). India is up 83%. Some Indians now worry that unsustainable bubbles are growing. The RBI may exit from its easy money policy early in 2010, as inflation is building up. But as long as a global tsunami of dollars keeps flooding into emerging markets, asset prices in India will keep rising.

In other words, investors rushing into real estate and stock markets are acting rationally, not foolishly. You may think they are myopic morons who have learned nothing from the bursting of the last bubble. In fact they fully understand that booms and busts are intrinsic parts of a market system, not aberrations that can be avoided. The secret of staying ahead is to ride the bubbles when they are inflating and get off before they burst. Right now, it's time to ride.

Three Potential Buyers For Bharatstudent

By Preethi J

Student social networking site Bharatstudent.com, which its owner Northgate Technologies put on the block along with document sharing portal Ziddu.com in June, has three potential buyers, the company informs in its quarterly earnings report. A non-disclosure agreement has been signed with the buyers, so further details are not mentioned: whether these are domestic or international firms, and whether a time frame has been set for the sale.

In June, there were rumours of the company being in talks with Reliance ADAG Group and Deccan Chronicle Holdings (DCHL) were interested, though we were categorically told that Reliance ADAG is not.

Northgate now operates only in the online advertising domain through its ad network Axill. It also owns VoIP company Globe7. The due diligence process is expected to get completed in the next few weeks.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Sunday Report Alchemist Realty Ltd (BSE Code: 532114)hit the buyer freeze in the opening trade. The company came out with good set of numbers for the Q2FY10. Besides this it has a huge land bank. A report on the company would be placed at www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com.

NEPC India Ltd is doing well in the morning trade due to latest positive development in the counter. The following are the excerpts from the Sunday Report sent to the Paid Groups.

The sources close to me have said that NEPC India will start operation in its SEZ by March, 2010. Hence it is now confirmed that the company has started developing the land for the said project. The company will export 75% of its produce and the rest from the SEZ will be sold to the domestic market. This also is expected to attract investment of Rs.4000 Cr from NRIs, Institutional and HNI investors.

However, the breaking news is that the company (NEPC India Ltd) has started operation its 3-star hotel project just opposite of Bidhan Sabha (State Assembly), which is expected to generate good income for the company. The said 3-star hotel has 60-room. However, some clearances are pending for full operation of hotel, for strategic reasons as the hotel is just opposite of an important building. As the hotel is at the centre of the town and is strategically located and hence from Q3FY10, we could see a ramp up of the balance sheet of the company.

According to the sources CY10 will be better for the company as solar energy market will start to pick up from February end, in a large way due to obvious reasons. If this mega-SEZ gets completed then I would not be surprised if the share price of the company touches Rs.31—32. There is also another catch in the company. The company owns Rs.800 Cr (Yes you have heard it right---Rupees Eight Hundred Crores) to Anil Ambani’s ADAG Group. However, a settlement is expected with half the amount as the “Thug” ADAG Group, is refusing to pay Rs.800 Cr to the company. Now, even if Rs.400 Cr (which could be the probable settlement amount) enters the balance sheet, then you can imagine where the share price of the company can go. Hence have some patience and buy the shares of the company for 9-10 months time frame-your money is expected to double from the CMP.

MORE COMING AND HENCE AN EYE ON THIS SPACE...........

US Markets and its economic-dilemma:

From Suman Mukherjee's desk

Wall Street today watched a blood bath in action, as stronger dollar, weak economic data spooked the investors (in New York Stock Exchange/ Nasdaq). A strong dollar makes U.S. goods and services more expensive, and theoretically harder to sell, overseas. And U.S. companies that do business abroad make less money when their earnings are translated from other countries' currencies into dollars.

Moreover, a strong dollar makes commodities more expensive to foreign buyers, and companies that produce the commodities make less money from them. However a strong dollar could see a rally in the Indian Technology counters tomorrow. It could also fuel a rally in the OMCs (Oil marketing companies), Infrastructure/Real estate and pure Petrochem Companies.

Now the US consumers need to be greedier or go in for more consumerism, helping their economy and the stock markets world-wide. Or else "Obama-nomics" based on some obscure socialistic concepts, will lead us to doom and gloom. Once, Mignon McLaughlin said, "Be glad that you're greedy; the national economy would collapse if you weren't."

However, what the US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said during a trip to Beijing this spring was equally shocking “Purchases of U.S. consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in the past.” These are some of the ills of much debated "Obamanomics."

On the other hand, there’s a growing group of market professionals who see that the much-advertised Chinese economic miracle is nothing but a “Paper Dragon”. In fact, they argue that the Chinese have precariously overheated their economy, building malls, luxury stores and infrastructure for which there is almost NO demand, and that the entire system is approaching toward a total collapse. A Chinese collapse, of course, would have profound effects on the United States, limiting China’s ability to buy U.S. debt and provoking unknown political changes inside the Chinese regime.

The billionaire hedge fund investor Jim Chanos, the founder of the investment firm Kynikos Associates also holds this view. He is known as a famous short seller — an investor who scrutinizes companies looking for hidden flaws and then bets against those firms in the market. His most famous call came in 2001, when he was the one of the first person, to figure out that the accounting numbers presented in the pubic domain by Enron were pure fiction. The rest is history as the mighty Enron Ltd was blown to pieces within some months.

Here it is to be noted that Chinese economy like the Indian economy is under performing in-spite of mighty stimulus packages amounting to more than $900 billion to boost its $4.3 trillion economy. Another point which is tormenting the Chinese economy post Olympics is the dreaded word, overcapacity. For example the spare capacity in the cement sector according to a recent estimate is 340 million tonnes, which according to a research house is more than the combined consumption in India, US and Japan.Hereto, the US has been driving the Chinese economy as China is still one of the major supplier of goods to the US. Inspite of ban in some of Chinese products, the China continues to be, US's biggest trade partners.

So, the Chinese factories ran on the US blood as this new found “Chinese-Socialism" devoured the US consumers.

The Chinese on the other hand, with their unbridled capitalistic expansion propelled by a system they still refer to as “socialism with Chinese characteristics or Chinese-Socialism,” are still thriving, though, with annual gross domestic product growth of 8.9 percent in the third quarter and a domestic consumer market just starting to flex its enormous muscles; while the US is still limping back to normalcy.

But it seems there is an oasis in the midst of desert: "The $787 billion stimulus is meeting its goal of creating jobs, even if problems with reporting prevent the government from knowing exactly how well it’s working", government watchdogs said today. In the US about $173 billion of the $787 billion package was spent as of September, 30, with $47 billion subject to the job-reporting requirements.

The rest of the money went for tax cuts and benefits such as unemployment insurance payments. “There are some signs that jobs are finally being created, both as a direct and indirect result of Recovery Act spending,” said the committee chairman, Democratic New York Representative Edolphus Towns.

Now if "OBAMANOMICS" works then the biggest beneficiary would be the US government as it is the “big-daddy” who digested the toxic assets of US’s misadventure with its economy.

It remains to be seen if the US can rise like a Phoenix from the debris of economic downturn. Also, it is felt that the US-China honeymoon will bring in goodies for the world economy inspite of all those occasional mud-throwing.

Someone said, "We had gay burglars the other night. They broke in but rearranged the furniture…..."

Thanks for reading my long article/column......

How Geodesic’s Spokn Deals With India’s Tough Internet Telephony Norms

Better late then never, Geodesic, which had recently said that it was working on improving the user interface of its VoIP service Spokn, has finally launched its VoIP offering.

On the timing of the launch, with the government shuffling its feet on permitting unrestricted VoIP calls, Ashhar Farhan, Head Technology, Spokn, explained, “First, Internet is here to stay. It makes immense economic sense to lay down just one pipe and stream all services through that one pipe. Sooner than later, Radio, TV, Voice and Text will all migrate to the IP cloud.”

Spokn allows users to make voice calls between PC to PC, Phone to Phone, and PC to Phone. It competes with the likes of Skype, Net2Phone, Vonage, Impetus, Novanet and Yahoo Voice. The company is based out of Singapore and has inked interconnect agreements with International Long Distance providers across the globe - and Spokn calls are routed through their networks.

These ILD operators receive a revenue share of 60-65% from the VoIP provider (the exact amount is calculated according to volumes and total call minutes) and the call is directed to the mobile or landline number as a normal voice call. Geodesic MD Kiran Kulkarni explained to a web-portal the process of making a VoIP call: “our system first notes your number when the call is placed, and the number you want to connect to, then disconnects the line. The caller then receives a call back which patches her onto a conference call with the person she intended to call.”

The audio conferencing technique for VoIP is also used by Sabeer Bhatia backed SabseBolo which acquired Jaxtr, and Google was using the same for its short-lived (in India) click-to-call feature.

Pricing: For calling any phones in India - including landlines and mobiles - the tariff is $0.02, which approximately amounts to Rs. 0.92 (92 paisa)! Calls to US and UK (landline) are also at $0.02 per minute.

India To India Calls?

And what about calls placed from India to another number in India - a local or an STD call? Geodesic said that they do not terminate calls on to the Indian PSTN lines that originate from India. On being asked how they deal with such calls then, Kulkarni explained “We take it outside and re-route it. And for a call placed from India to any country, the cost doubles to 4 cents for the user.”

The Regulatory Point, Security Concerns:

Indian government has banned VoIP call termination on public service telephone networks (PSTN or Landlines) and mobiles, even though Indian regulator TRAI had recommended changes be made for allowing VoIP calls to made to PSTN/PLMN or vice-versa within the country.

“VoIP is not illegal in India. All telco license holders are allowed VoIP if they want to use it. The ISPs too are allowed a restricted form of Internet telephony - IP device in India and a PSTN end-point,” said Farhan told us. ”There has been some noise about security concerns. We share these concerns and we have, in our response to TRAI’s consultation paper gone on to recommend even tougher regulations for Internet telephony.

Internet telephony in India is regulated and licensed, which is good thing. If there are valid security concerns, then, the service providers are obliged to deal with it,” he said, adding that ”we will remained engaged in the policy debate while calibrating our India offerings to the evolving regulations.” Currently, Geodesic says there should be no security concerns as both the originating number and the called number are tracked and this information is shared between the ILD operator and the VoIP service provider. So whose responsibility is it on to keep a track of the source? Kulkarni said Geodesic follows VoIP guidelines set by regulatory bodies in this matter. ”The problem was - there were two routes: the VoIP route and the grey route. This latter was used and users could identify them by the absence of the originating number on the caller id. It would appear as an unknown number. But if a VoIP provider signs up with ILD operators and transmits the call through their networks, users can see the originating international number,” explains Kulkarni. If the call is made from a PC to a mobile, the number shown on the caller id will be a 10 digit US number, preceded by the country code.

Voice Messaging:

The VoIP service also includes a voice messaging service (VMS) where a subscriber can record and send a 20 second message to any email for free and any phone at fixed cost that includes the 20 second reply. Why 20 seconds? Farhan said: When we started prototyping VMS, we came across a three significant issues. First, long winded VMS tend to become more like podcasts. Second, we cannot provide a fixed cost of delivery. Third, the bandwidth on mobiles can make longer messages really slow. Over months, we tested this extensively and hit the sweet spot of 20 seconds. Geodesic is likely to leverage its recent tie-up with Sybase 365 , a US-based voice messaging service.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

[Updated at 9.59 p.m.]

XL Telecom and Energy Ltd hit another buyer freeze (9th consecutive after it was recommended to the Paid Groups) in the opening trade, as it seems there is no stopping for the company. Those who have invested with me during the market hours are definitely laughing their way into banks.

Those who have invested in Northgate Technologies Ltd earlier at a higher price can start averaging at the CMP of Rs.28. The company has come up with better than expected results for Q2FY10. To see the results of the company please visit: http://www.nepcindia.com/ (not http://www.nepcindia.com/).

My earlier recommended Bag Films Ltd touched Rs.19.35 today. The company could get benefitted from the recent announcement from the government.

Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd (PSTL) hit another buyer freeze. Those who have invested with me must be feeling happy. Some fools were selling the stock in bulk, even though I was saying from the day one to accumulate the scrip, when the scrip stabilises. What to say to these morons, who think they know better than the person who is in hand and glove with the scrip (PSTL)!!

Try to accumulate Accentia Technologies Ltd before the stock moves out of your hand. The company has an enviable balance sheet.

The morning call Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd hit the buyer freeze in the opening trade. The stock should move up from here as it will get benefited due to recent announcements from the government and also due to the fact that it has completed some of its projects for the launching of television channels.

Those who have invested in Country Club India Ltd, should increase their holdings in all declines as the stock is going to be a multi-bagger going forward. The stock is trading around 1/5th (one fifth) of its book value.....which looks simply absurd. Soon a price discovery will take place which will take take the scrip to around Rs.42-45, in the days to come. Please do not think too much nor should you hear too much what some fools are saying on this scrip, just invest and forget....

Only remember a fraud company cannot have so many properties worth crores or billions of rupees in India and in Overseas. Do you think it is possible to run a company in India, committing fraud day in and out, without being caught..??!! Dr.Albert Einstein once said, "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former".

However, some fools are trying to paint black ink forcibly on the company's (Country Club India Ltd's) face, which is unfortunate. The company is expected to come up with some positive news very soon. And those who will not buy now will surely miss the bus....or repent later....I am sure these fools/morons will buy this scrip (Country Club India Ltd) when it had already crossed Rs.32-33 (First Target). Just writing some lines in the Internet or in a web-site does not make a company fraud. Your allegations should be proved in the court of law....It might also be the handiwork of the company's (Country Club India Ltd's) peer groups or competitors--who can say??!! Hence stay away from all these stupid theories, if you genuinely want to make money in the Stock Markets. The key trait you should develop is not to listen to Tom, Dick and Harry for taking investing/trading decisions....

Only some days back a fool came up in NDTV Profit Ltd and asked all the investors to get out of Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd (PSTL) at Rs.15, those who have heard that moron analyst, must be banging their heads against the walls, as PSTL is hitting continuous upper freezes on the news of Free Shares of a Group Company and massive restructuring exercise.

Moreover, there is an old saying in Hinduism, "When the Goddess Lakshmi herself, comes knocking at your door, avail of the opportunity instead of turning her down.....!!"

If generating profit from the markets would have been so easy, then there would have been more than one million persons richer than Mukesh Ambani in India. People think that investing in stock market is like eating pop-corn and watching a cricket match.....haha....some persons has their own imaginations in place..

I remember, once, Shiv Sena Supremo, Balasaheb Thakreyji said, "Some persons like to believe that their absurd imaginations are true"...

Anyway, investors should accumulate Energy Developments Ltd and wait for the announcement to come from the company's end. There are some good announcements expected from the company.

This week's QUICKIE CALL (For the Paid Groups--Quickie), Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd hit the buyer freeze. I think I have earlier mentioned in this blog, some of the latest developments in the company. Those who have subscribed to my Quickie Service must be happy.

NEPC India Ltd:

Would it start the New Project on November, 2009 end?

The Non-conventional energy has become a part of our everyday life especially when there are threats of Crude Oil crossing $100 per barrel in the days to come. In this space there is a company called NEPC-INDIA LTD (BSE Code: 500301), which is rumoured to be a multi-bagger going forward.

I got some inputs from the Internet while on a routine search....I found the scrip interesting especially considering the rumours that the company has diversified in the Hotel Space.

Now let me summarise the points which I found on the Internet:

NEPC India Limited is more than a 30 year old company. The management claims it to be the one which pioneered wind energy in India, and that it has established 2500 MW in India and abroad.

However, consequent to the process of transferring its wind energy division to M/s.Southern Wind Farms Limited as per the slump sale agreement dated 16-01-2006, the Company is presently engaged in the business of dealing in NEPC Solar Dual Power Modules and generation and selling of electric energy.

The company is again making news, off late as it has diversified into manufacturing Solar Technology compatible power systems- Inverters / UPS of various capacities, available with or without solar panels. According to the management the company has achieved installation of more than 10,000 NEPC SOLAR DUAL POWER SYSTEMS in India, without much publicity.

Another big announcement that the company have been making is that they have got all the approvals from the State and Central govt for an SEZ project for manufacturing products for generating power from Non-Conventional energy resources.

The SEZ will be located in Tamil Nadu in about 100 acres of land. They claim it to be their own SEZ i.e. NEPC-SEZ and expected it to commence operations from November, 2009. They expected investments in the range of Rs.4000--5000 crore and also expected NEPC India Ltd, to get an annual income of Rs.50-60 cr from the same.

THE PUNTERS OR RISK TAKING INVESTORS CAN BUY THE SCRIP of NEPC India Ltd, AT THE CMP OF Rs.8.5, as there is nothing to be lost from this price.

Meanwhile I will be speaking with the sources soon to find out when the new project would be starting production. Once the project starts it will be another XL telecom and Energy Ltd. Today it has already hit the huge 20% buyer freeze.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

U B Engineering Ltd recommended last month, which became debt free last quarter is on the verge of hitting another buyer freeze. U B Engineering Ltd is from the U B Group, represented by the Liquor Baron, Dr.Vijay Mallya.

Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd, hit another buyer freeze on the opening trade. Those who bought the share with me during the market hours yesterday, must be laughing their into banks.

There could be some good news coming from the Energy Development Company Ltd. The company's share price is grossly undervaled considering the potential of the company.Hence accumulate the scrip on all declines.

Sanguine Media Services Ltd should be accumulated at the CMP of Rs.3.5 for a target of Rs.12--15, by the end of April, 2010. The company is expected to strike a deal with the FMCG major, Godrej Ltd. It is also expected to get repeat orders from ICICI Bank Ltd for its event management division.

Investors should accumulate Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd at the CMP of Rs.30, for a target of Rs.52-53, by the end of March, 2010. The company's land value in Hyderabad has increased in value considerably due to the improvement in the fortunes of the Information Technology (IT) sector. Hyderabad as we all know is a Tech city, akin to Bangalore. The company which ventured out of Hyderabad a couple of years back, is now targettting Tier-II and Tier-III cities. The company is also on the verge of completing its 3-Star hotel (upholstry work is going on) and after that the work on 5-star hotel would start. Hence a very good scrip to be accumulated at the CMP and all declines.

XL Telecom and Energy Ltd hit 8th consecutive buyer freeze, as the stock touched Rs.39.35 today in the opening trade. The stock was asked to be averaged at Rs.28--29, both by the Free (those who are registered in my Yahoo Messenger) and Paid Groups.

Hence, when I ask you to buy a scrip just buy it (do it) without looking here and there or without losing too much time or without hearing what some Television Analysts' say on my Recommended Scrips. This is because of the fact that (and you must have observed in the last few years), I am correct in more than 90% of the cases.

Yesterday I was talking aggressively about investing in Country Club India Ltd (BSE Code: 526550) and look what the Pink Daily, Business Standard (Bombay edition) said yesterday, which is given below:

Leisure properties report 'sell-out'

The robust bookings are in spite of travel advisories issued by Western and pacific countries.

If you were planning to spend Christmas or New Year’s Eve at exotic locations in Goa or Kerala but haven’t done the required bookings for it yet, chances are that you can’t go. Most of the top properties in these two locations are already reporting a “full-house” for that period.

The robust bookings are in spite of the travel advisories issued by almost all western and pacific countries over a month earlier, cautioning their citizens against travel to India during the peak tourist season due to terrorism threats. The central government had also spoken recently about terror threats to popular tourist destinations.

Rajiv Kaul, senior vice president, Hotel Leelaventure, said: “We are already sold out for the Goa property and the one at Kovalam (in Kerala) is more than 90 per cent full for the period. Apart from the continued influx of international tourists into the country, there is a strong interest from the domestic market as well. Beach resorts have marked the strongest of comebacks from the lows of last year.”

The company owns and runs The Leela Kempinski Goa, a premier luxury hotel property situated at the shores of the Cavelossim beach in South Goa. Hotel chain operators say bookings for the final 10-15 day period of December gathered pace only two to three weeks ago.

“So far, November has been very good but bookings for December, including dates, which are other than the ones usually in demand, are happening at a very healthy pace,” says Keshav Baljee, co-promoter of the Bangalore-based Royal Orchid Hotels.

This heightened activity has brought welcome relief to the battered industry, which was struggling with lower occupancy while being forced to hold back any hike in room rates just a few months earlier.

The tourist season last year was especially challenging, with hoteliers having to bear the twin brunt of the global economic collapse and of the Mumbai terror attacks.

Unofficial figures indicate hotel occupancies were then down to 30-40 per cent in the top destinations, which usually boast over 60-75 per cent occupancy. This was further hit by the outbreak of the H1N1 virus (swine flu), which forced many hoteliers to reduce their average room rates, too.

Now, business travel seems to have also picked up and some properties have increased rates already.

Shobu Mathew, vice president (marketing), The Lalit, says: “There are lots of conferences and meetings taking place in our property, apart from a sheer increase in the number of weddings, especially from the NRI segment. We are just back from a summit in London and definitely the charter arrivals are expected to go up significantly. We had to increase our rates, too, due to the demand. Things are definitely looking brighter than last year.”

According to an industry insider, charter flights from Russia have witnessed a rise of 35 per cent so far in Goa, though the lead country remains the United Kingdom.

And, even in the aftermath of the financial downturn, customers have not scaled down their quality of stay.

“People are preferring to stay for a day or two less at their preferred destination rather than compromise on the quality of their stay. There is no perceptible shift of any such kind,” said a sector expert.