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Sunday, February 07, 2016

Questions From the Blog Readers
I am a regular reader of your blog.you provide very valuable information regarding the share and it is very useful to the small investors. I have (xxxx) lakh share of Rasoya protein @ .40 paise and I want to add more.How is the future of this compnay? I can hold for more than two years.

I have also (xxxx) shares of suzlon @ 15.00.How is the future of this company? I can hold as long as suggested.

Awaiting your reply....
Thanking you,
Ketan Acharya
E-mail: ketan.acharya 2002@gmail.com
 1. Rasoya Proteins Ltd (Re.0.25) has successfully resolved a part of the GDR issue and is hoping to get a favourable verdict from the SAT. Also, it is in conversion with various lending banks to restructure its loans. The company is also taking measures to open its main plant and its power plants.
However, the last three positive news are still in the realm of speculation. Therefore, those who are punters can increase their holdings in the scrip, while risk averse investors should wait for some more time for the froth to get cleared, before taking fresh positions. For the moment the scrip is likely to trade in the range of Re.0.25-0.30.

2. The fortunes of Suzlon Ltd are still unclear. Moreover, fall in crude oil price is negative for the scrip. In such circumstances, I would suggest you to book profit in the stock at around Rs.17-18-21.70 and enter any share in the IT, FMCG or Auto space (for short term investors). However, long term investors can hold the counter with a SL of Rs.12.70.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Where is Crude Oil headed......
Photo: See it market
The Crude oil has started to move northward, following rumors of a possible OPEC-Russia talks in February to cut the production by at least 5%.

Crude Oil prices rose on Friday, rebounding more than 25 percent from 12-year lows hit last week and cutting losses for the month, on prospects of a deal between major exporters to cut production and curb one of the biggest supply gluts in history.

For the week, Brent was 7.9 percent higher and U.S. crude 4.4 percent higher, paring their monthly losses to 6.8 percent and 9.3 percent respectively.

Baker Hughes reported its weekly count of oil rigs in U.S. fields fell by 12 to a total of 498. At this time last year, drillers were operating 1,223 rigs in U.S. oil fields.

Also on Friday, monthly data from the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration showed American oil production ticked down slightly in November. U.S. output stood at 9.318 million barrels per day in November, versus 9.370 million bpd in October. 

Therefore, the moot question remains where is the crude oil headed in the short term?

Core Labs Commentary regarding Crude Oil maket in 2016:

"At current U.S. activity levels, Core predicts 2016 crude oil production to be lower year-over-year; perhaps falling bye over 900,000 bopd in 2016. This, coupled with the continuing decline in international production and the continuing increase in global energy consumption, should create a tight crude oil supply market for the second half of 2016, which should lead to increased crude prices and industry activity levels worldwide.

The Company continues to anticipate a "V-shaped" worldwide activity recovery in 2016 with upticks starting in the third quarter. Global demand for hydrocarbon-based energy continues to improve, while worldwide crude oil supply peaked in the second half of 2015, beginning a decline that Core believes will continue through all of 2016. The Company currently believes that U.S. land production peaked in March 2015 and has fallen since then by over 600,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"), some of which was offset by new additions to production in the Gulf of Mexico ("GOM") as a result of recent field developments coming on-line in 2015. Given the current, depressed commodity prices, Core believes further new additions to production in the GOM will not be sustainable. Based on currently available worldwide crude oil production data, coupled with internal Core Lab data, Core has increased its estimate of the net worldwide annual crude oil production decline curve rate to 3.1% from 2.5%. This additional 60 basis points decline is predicated on sharper decline curve rates for tight-oil reservoirs and the significant decline in maintenance capital expenditures for the existing crude oil production base".

While, with the current set of parameters at play it would be difficult to gauge its short term peak, but the consensus is at the $37-41 per barrel, levels.

Tumbling energy prices, stemming from worries about weakening demand from world No2 economy China, have roiled financial markets. This was a concern the Fed cited as a factor for keeping its key policy rate at 0.25-0.50 per cent on Thursday.

The Fed's worry over global and financial developments spurred selling in the US dollar against most major currencies.

Now the sudden rise in the price of crude oil has given a fresh lease of life to the commodity market. The stocks like Vedanta Resources have already started to rocket-up.

In such circumstances, I would like to go full hog in the depleted commodity sector for the time being.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Vedanta Ltd: Buy
CMP: Rs.64.4
Vedanta Ltd's June bid for the rest of Cairn India Ltd could look more rosy as the crude price moves northwards. The commodity price stability means the offer of one Vedanta Ltd share, plus preferred stock, for every Cairn share could gradually approach Cairn’s market price.

Mr.Agarwal has already taken several measure to cut costs and is in talks with banks, to restructure its debts. Anil Agarwal might even take the route of funneling cash up, through dividends or through intercompany loans as it has done in the past; as his back get pushed towards the wall, more and more. 

Moreover, in a recent interview to a financial portal, Anil Agarwal, Chairman of Vedanta Group said that although commodity prices are currently under pressure and impacting the company’s business, they will be out of this situation soon, adding that Vedanta is at a comfortable position on Zinc and crude oil prices are also close to bottoming out.

Vedanta Resources owns around 63% of Vedanta Ltd which, in turn, owns almost 65% and 60% of cash cows Hindustan Zinc and Cairn India.Vedanta Resources is a holding company and relies on cash flows from its various operational subsidiaries to service its obligations.

Global markets slumped at the start of the year on fears that a slowdown in China would spread to the rest of the world economy, while oil prices sank to 13-year lows.

Market turbulence sets the backdrop for a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday and Wednesday, while Bank of Japan policymakers gather on Jan. 28-29.

Last week, the European Central Bank signaled it could deliver further monetary stimulus, raising hopes that other central banks might take the same path.

The market rout meanwhile could throw the Fed off its course of gradual interest rate hikes.

"Attention will now turn to the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's latest policy decisions later this week, with the main focus on the U.S. central bank in the wake of last month's historic decision to raise rates for the first time in nine years," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

Therefore, buy the shares of Vedanta Ltd at the  CMP of Rs.64.4 for short term targets of Rs.95-96. There is no need of putting any Stop Loss, as the stock is already avaialble at a dirt cheap rate.

Monday, January 18, 2016

Do you know?
Veer Energy Ltd (Rs.4.18) was recommended on 14 January, 2015 at Rs.3.30-3.50, for a target of Rs.5. That Target was reached long back. Meanwhile, the scrip made a 52-week high of Rs.6.69 on 5 January, 2016.

The company has great future ahead. Therefore, the investors are suggested to accumulate the scrip when its price stabilizes, for a target above Rs.10, in the next 18 months.

Friday, January 15, 2016

In a representation made to the minister, Sopa has pointed out that as per the National Institute of Nutrition, the edible oil requirement of India with a population of 1,300 million comes up to 16.607 million tonne. As against this, the total oil availability in 2015 was 21.60 million tonne including 14.42 million tonne of imported oil, the Sopa chairman said. Seeking curb on excessive import of edible oils, the Soybean Processors Association of India (Sopa) has asked the government to fix TRQ (tariff rate quota) of one million tonne for soybean to help the industry and farmers. The reasons for the excessive import are low prices in the world market and low custom duty in India,” Sopa chairman Davish Jain said in a letter to commerce minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

According to Jain, import of soybean oil is also having a deleterious effect on Indian farmers, the soy industry and soy meal exports. The soybean industry and farmers have now reached a stage where the future looks grim, he said. The association has suggested that the government should fix a TRQ of one million tonne for soybean oil to be imported at the current rate of customs duty and any quantity above the TRQ should be charged the WTO-bound rate of 45%.
TRQ could also be fixed for other edible oils, the association said. Such measures will substantially reduce the foreign exchange outflow. In 2015, some 30.30 lakh tonne of soybean oil was imported as against 21.01 lakh tonne in 2014. The association has also made representations to food and consumer affairs minister Ram Vilas Paswan and agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh.
This move is likely to help the soya oil making companies like Rasoya Proteins Ltd (Re.0.24). The shares of Rasoya Proteins Ltd seems to have buttoned out, with minimum downside. However, fresh buying should be avoided unless, there is some positive news regarding opening of the main plant and the power plants.

Meanwhile, the scrip of Brooks Laboratories Ltd, was recommended to the Premium Group Members at Rs.86.10 on 16 December, 2016. The scrip made a 52-week high of Rs.124.15 on 12 January, 2016 and is now trading at Rs.99.85.

Today, a well known stock from the software sector has been recommended to the Premium Group Members, for a short term target of Rs.145.

Join the Paid Service, to make maximum gains from the current market conditions, using my experience of around a couple of decades.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

It is an irony that even after repeated trys, Saudis have failed to drown the US by flooding the markets with Crude oil (1.8 Mb/day of production). By now the Saudi Arabia might have understood their mistake and may work towards maintaining the much sought after Demand-Supply equilibrium.

If this happens then we could see the Crude oil prices shooting above $60/barrel, triggering a rally in the Commodity market. For Indian shareholders, this could be music as most of the time, the share price movement (in the Indian bourses) had been been directly proportional to the crude price.

Thursday, January 07, 2016

All the GDR's of Rasoya Proteins Ltd have been converted into Equity shares and in turn there are no outstanding GDR's and hence there are virtually no GDR's being traded on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange, hence the Company has decided to voluntary delist its GDR's from Luxembourg Stock Exchange.

Shares of RASOYA PROTEINS LTD was last trading in BSE at Re.0.26 as compared to the previous close of Rs.0.27. However, the investors are suggested NOT to take FRESH positions, till some CLARITY over the issue emerges. 

Monday, December 21, 2015

Please Click on the Photo to Expand
Rolta India Ltd, recommended at around Rs.92.75 to the Premium Group members on 16 December 2015, touched Rs.99.30, intra-day and closed at Rs.98.65. Tell me how many of the Free Members also made money, because the stock was also recommended in this blog at Rs.95.50? Now what to do with the scrip? Confused? Join the Premium Service!!
The price of my Paid Package/s is/are expected to increase from 15 January, 2016. Those who will enroll before that will get the subscription not only at the earlier price tag, but will also get 3 months grace. Which means the price will be Rs.10, 000 per year, for 15 months. Moreover, those who will trade through my recommended brokerage house, with a minimum portfolio size of Rs.1 lakhs, will get the Premium Subscription Free of Charge, till he/she continues trading through this platform...Also, those who are willing to invest around Rs.10-15 lakhs in share market, do let me know; I have a scrip which could double in the next 12-18 months (or may be before that). We just need to buy this scrip and keep holding. The profit will be shared in a mutually agreed ratio, between you and my firm.
Vedanta Ltd, recommended on 19 December, 2015, at Rs.84.30, today touched Rs.87, intra-day and closed at Rs.86.55. The stock will break Rs.96-97, soon; remain invested. 
Pipavav Defence Ltd today touched Rs.82 and closed at Rs.79.10, on the BSE-kindly book profits and enter either Vedanta Ltd at Rs.86.55 or Hindalco Industries Ltd at Rs.81.20.
The Stock of Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.42.95) has started to look good once again. Keep buying the scrip on all declines, for a short term target of Rs.48.