Friday, January 04, 2019

Market Mantra
Buy the Shares of Indo Count Industries Ltd at the CMP of Rs.55.45 for short and medium-term targets of Rs.91/96/127/141. SL: Rs.56. It is likely to give decent returns over a period, as INR depreciation Vs USD is going to have a good effect on its balance sheet. The company makes, bed sheets, pillow covers, etc which are sold in the United States through retailers such as Wal-Mart and Bed Bath & Beyond. While the majority (65%) of Indo Count Industries Ltd’s business comes from retailers in the US, it also exports to 54 countries and has taken baby steps in selling products under its own brand -- a bold step for a company that was set up only in 1991 as a yarn maker and entered the home textile business in 2006. A strong US dollar has already the input costs for the US manufacturers -- this is likely to boost US imports in sectors such as textiles, steel, aluminium etc. However, Trump administration recently imposed strong Tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as well as a range of Chinese goods. This gives the big shot Indian textile players an edge.

Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd (Rs.22.80) as expected bounced from its support and has now hit the 3rd consecutive buyer freeze. Keep accumulating on dips for targets of Rs.26/31

Lasa Supergenerics Ltd (Rs.33.15) also hit the buyer freeze in the morning trade at Rs.36.55. But the scrip is it critical level as mentioned earlier to the Premium Members. Hence, those who have taken position around Rs.22-24 levels, where it was recommended should book profits and wait to see if it is able to hold the immediate support zone. However long-term investors can hold with a SL at Rs.31. 

Nifty is now trading at 10,661.80 down 10.45 points. Hence, all the short term targets (10742/10675) in Nifty Futures given to the Premium Members have been achieved.

To know what should be the strategy now, you should join the Premium Information Service. The discounts on the Yearly and Life Time Premium Membership has ended on 31st December 2018. Hence, those who will be subscribing now will have to do that on the normal subscription rates.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Winning Strokes: Think Different
Key equity benchmarks extended gains for sixth session in a row led by gains in ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro and Reliance Industries. Trading was volatile as indices bounced back in last hour of trade after hovering in negative terrain for most part of the session. The Nifty managed to close above 10,900 mark. Slide in crude oil prices and firmness in rupee boosted investors sentiment.

Global stocks were negative in the face of slowing economic growth and rising political uncertainty while investors looked to the US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision due on Wednesday.

The Sensex rose 77.01 points or 0.21% to settle at 36,347.08, its highest closing level since 1 October 2018. The index rose 105.31 points, or 0.29% at the day's high of 36,375.38. The index fell 223.55 points, or 0.62% at the day's low of 36,046.52.

The Nifty 50 index rose 20.35 points or 0.19% to settle at 10,908.70, its highest closing level since 1 October 2018. The index rose 27.05 points, or 0.25% at the day's high of 10,915.40. The index fell 69.25 points, or 0.64% at the day's low of 10,819.10.

The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.21%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.45%.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On the BSE, 1441 shares rose and 1119 shares fell. A total of 163 shares were unchanged.

Among the sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Power index (up 1.09%), the S&P BSE Capital Goods index (up 1.08%) and the S&P BSE Telecom index (up 0.97%), outperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE Teck index (down 1.13%), the S&P BSE IT index (down 1.08%) and the S&P BSE FMCG index (down 0.29%), underperformed the Sensex.

IT shares declined amid firm rupee. Infosys (down 2.48%) and Wipro (down 1.29%), edged lower. Appreciation in rupee dents top line of IT firms as these companies derive most of their revenues in dollar terms.

Shares of the IL&FS group companies spurted after IL&FS initiated steps for monetisation of its domestic roads vertical. IL&FS Transportation Network hit an upper circuit limit of 5% at Rs 11.55. IL&FS Engineering and Construction Company hit an upper circuit limit of 5% at Rs 14.13. IL&FS Investment Managers hit an upper circuit limit of 10% at Rs 7.02.

On the political front, Kamal Nath, chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, on Monday reportedly waived the outstanding short term crop loans of farmers up to Rs 2 lakh as on 31 March 2018, taken from nationalised and the cooperative banks. The decision will benefit as many as 3.4 million farmers and will cost the exchequer between Rs 35,000 to Rs 38,000 crore, according to media reports.

Further, Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Bhagel, who too took charge on Monday, reportedly announced that his government will waive farm loans worth Rs 6,100 crore of around 1.66 million farmers. He also announced that the government will increase the minimum support price for paddy from Rs 1,700 per quintal to Rs 2,500 a quintal, reports added.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 70.83, compared with its close of 71.56 during the previous trading session.
In the global commodities markets, Brent for February 2018 settlement was down $1.67 at $57.94 a barrel. The contract had fallen 67 cents, or 1.11% to settle at $59.61 a barrel during the previous trading session.

Overseas, European shares traded lower on Tuesday with investors growing increasingly concerned over the political impasse over Brexit in the United Kingdom, where parliament continues to debate procedural issues surrounding Prime Minister Theresa May's EU exit deal and isn't likely to formally vote on it until early next year.

Asian stocks declined on Tuesday, tracking losses on Wall Street as traders braced for an interest rate hike by Federal Reserve. US equity indexes slid to their lowest close in 14 months on Monday as investors weighed the impact of the Fed on growth in a market already anxious over trade, geopolitical tensions and a possible government shutdown.

The Federal Reserve holds its final policy meeting of 2018 on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise its short-term interest rate by a modest quarter-point to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve monetary policy guidance for 2019. The central bank forecasts three more rate hikes in 2019, but softer global growth could cause a shift in its hawkish stance. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision is due Thursday, followed by a briefing from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. A Bank of England decision is also due on Thursday.

#My recommended Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd and Lasa Supergenerics Ltd hit their respective buyer freezes at Rs.23.55 and Rs.24.80 respectively. The stocks which were repeatedly recommended on this blog are a part of Dolly Khanna bouquet of scrips. For targets and other details, you need to join the Premium Information Service. 

#The scrip of Balasore Alloys Ltd today made a high of Rs.27.40 before closing at Rs.26.75. This company belongs to the brother of steel baron L N Mittal. Meanwhile, NMDC has announced a revision in the price of Iron ore.

#Those who are holding the shares of Bhusan Steel Ltd from around Rs.23-27, should book some profits at around the CMP of Rs.40.70 and hold the remaining with a strict stop loss at Rs.39. The stock has given a good return to the blog readers. 

Friday, December 14, 2018

Market Mantra
Short Nifty corresponding to the Spot Rate of 10,791.55 for targets of 10697/10672. After all those drama in the election is over, the markets may look for some breathing space for the next level of upmove. However, stock specific activities will continue. Buying may now shift slowly to the small and mid cap counters.The rates of Nifty mentioned are all Spot levels. You need to do the necessary shorting and find targets in F&O space, corresponding to the spot levels.  China reported economic data that missed expectations. China on Friday reported industrial output and retail sales growth for the month of November. Industrial output in November grew 5.4% from a year ago. That figure was 5.9% in October. Retail sales rose 8.1%, down from 8.6% in October. Fixed asset investment rose 5.9% from January to November. It rose 5.7% from January to October. This is already having a negative impact on the Asian markets.

Buy TV Vision Ltd at around Rs.4.30 for short term targets of Rs.7 and Rs.9. Though TV Vision reported Flat Financial performance in Sep-18, however, it is better than Sept-17. The Net sales came at Rs.27.85 crore as against Rs.26.04 crore in Q2FY18. The interest cost also came down to Rs.86 lakhs in Q2FY19, as against 4.02 crore in Q2FY18.
The elevation comes into effect from 7 September 2018 without any change in the terms and conditions of his appointment.Markand Adhikari, aged 61 years, began his career with an advertising firm in the 1980s. He is a promoter director of the company and began this venture in association with his brother Gautam Adhikari.
There are rumors that the company could sell one of its channels to pare some debt. Its channel Mastii has again taken number one spot on the charts. With a book value of Book Value of Rs.25.37 & FV: Rs.10, the share of TV Vision Ltd is trading at an abnormal price, and soon we might see a change in the aberration generated. I reiterate, from my experience of more than 2 decades in equity market I can say confidently that this cannot be the discovery price of the share off such a reputed company; only because of some loan issue!

#Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd hit another buyer freeze at Rs.21.55. The stock almost doubled from from the recommended price of around Rs.11-12. The next targets could be Rs.32/35/39, if a resistance is broken on the upside. To know where is the resistance place, subscribe to the Premium Services. 

#Buy the scrip of Kwality Ltd at around Rs.8.90 for short-term targets of Rs.12/14. Kwality Ltd will announce their financial results for the quarter ended September 2018 later in the day. 

#As a corollary to the rally in the Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd we can see a rally in the scrip of Lasa Supergenerics Ltd (Rs.21.85). We can look forward for short term targets of Rs.27-29. This is a sister company of the former.

#Buy the shares of Yes Bank Ltd near the supports of Rs.174/175, for short term targets of Rs.197/221. It is likely to nominate Mr.Brahm Dutt as a part-time Non-executive Chairman of the private sector lender. 

~~with inputs from Capital Market Live News....

Friday, December 07, 2018

A firm opening on the cards
Trading of Nifty 50 index futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates that the Nifty could rise 40 points at the opening bell.

On the political front, the outcomes of the five state elections will likely set the tone for the general elections next year. Voting in Rajasthan and Telangana will take place today, 7 December 2018 and the counting of votes in all the states will be done on 11 December 2018. Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram were held on 28 November 2018. The election in Chhattisgarh Assembly was held in two phases on 12 and 20 November 2018.

Overseas, Asian stocks were trading mixed as investors grappled with shifting indications on US-China trade talks and prospects for a pause in Federal Reserve tightening.

US stocks closed mostly lower Thursday after a dramatic session that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge more than 700 points at one point on fears that the arrest of a Huawei executive would reignite trade worries. However, the market clawed back most of its losses on a report that the Federal Reserve may turn more accommodative.

Market participants are also monitoring a two-day meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, which is slated to wrap up Friday. Crude-oil prices renewed their descent after the Saudi energy minister proposed a smaller-than-expected cut to production, but added that the oil cartel hadn't yet agreed to any production declines.

Back home, key domestic indices slumped Thursday, mirroring weakness in global stocks. Indices settled lower for third day in a row as investors turned cautious in the run-up to the announcement of five state elections' results next week. The Sensex fell 572.28 points or 1.59% to settle at 35,312.13, its lowest closing level since 22 November 2018.

The trading activity on that day showed that the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 72.47 crore yesterday, 6 December 2018, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 389.78 crore yesterday, 6 December 2018, as per provisional data.

Among corporate news, HCL Technologies (HCL) said it will acquire select IBM software products for $1.8 billion. The transaction is expected to close by mid-2019, subject to completion of applicable regulatory reviews. The software products in scope represent a total addressable market of more than $50 billion and include Appscan for secure application development, BigFix for secure device management, Unica (on-premise) for marketing automation, Commerce (on-premise) for omni-channel eCommerce, Portal (on-premise) for digital experience, Notes & Domino for email and low-code rapid application development, and Connections for workstream collaboration. HCL and IBM have an ongoing IP Partnership for five of these products. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 6 December 2018.

Wipro's digital business arm, Wipro Digital, and Alfresco, a leading enterprise open source provider of process automation, content management and information governance software, announced an expanded global partnership to create, build and run open source based digital transformation programs for its clients, across the globe. The partnership will bring together Wipro's expertise in digital transformation and Alfresco's Digital Business Platform. As a part of this alliance, the two companies will launch a series of go-to market (GTM) initiatives, that includes a joint Predictive Service Automation solution using Artificial Intelligence, Machine learning and a microservices based framework, that will transform the future of asset maintenance. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 6 December 2018.

Coal India announced after market hours yesterday, 6 December 2018, that the President of India, acting through the Ministry of Coal, Government of India, has sold 13.73 crore equity shares, or 2.21% equity, of Coal India to Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management. This is with reference to the setting up of the central public sector enterprise exchange traded fund (CPSE ETF) comprising equity shares of central public sector enterprises (CPSE), which was launched as the CPSE ETF mutual fund scheme (Scheme) in March 2014. Post-acquisition holding of a promoter is 72.92% of equity share capital of the company.

#A buy call was initiated in the scrip of Bartronics Ltd yesterday at around Rs.7.25 for short-term targets of Rs.11/14. This is a high-risk high gain counter and hence don't play without putting a SL at Rs.6. The company's sundry debtors include export receivable aggregating to Rs.733.80 crores as of June 2018. The management in a BSE filing said that though on account of the economic slowdown and consequent recessionary conditions in the global market there have been delays in recovery of such amount however it firmly believes that the said amount is recoverable as the company has a long-standing relationship with that customer. At the year ended 30 June, 2018, 300 (three hundred) kiosks have been constructed and for the balance 1700 Kiosks, allotment of clear sites by MCD is awaited. 
Meanwhile, the company has started negotiations with the holders of company's bonds (FCCBs) and in this regard, it has appointed a consultant to assesses all the options available with the company and finalize the best-suited approach. The management in a BSE filing further said it is in the advanced stages of negotiations for arriving at a consensus with the bonder holders and is confident of resolving this shortly. 

#Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd hit another buyer freeze at Rs.16.09 in the BSE The scrip has given more than 30% returns from the recommended price. 

#The Premium Members were yesterday asked to re-enter the scrip of Tata Steel Ltd (Rs.510.20) at around Rs.517.20, when it fell, intraday, on the premise that the company has started to show marketd improvement in its topline after its acquisition of Bhusan Steel. If you remember, I have been recommending Tata Steel from the levels of Rs.217. The stock has given more than 3 times returns during the last 2-3 years. 

~~with inputs from Capital Market Live News.....

Tuesday, December 04, 2018

Market Mantra: Stocks May Open a Tad Lower
Photo: Kalinga TV
Trading of Nifty 50 index futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates that the Nifty could fall 6 points at the opening bell.

Overseas, most Asian stocks were trading lower, signaling fading investor applause for the US-China trade truce. US stocks rallied yesterday, 3 December 2018 after the US and China declared a truce in their trade war.

Back home, key equity benchmarks extended gains for sixth straight trading session yesterday, 3 December 2018. However, the trading was volatile as gains triggered by strong global cues were almost offset by lower-than-expected domestic GDP data. The Sensex rose 46.70 points or 0.13% to settle at 36,241, its highest closing level since 1 October 2018.

The trading activity on that day showed that the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 293.12 crore yesterday, 3 December 2018, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 806.45 crore yesterday, 3 December 2018, as per provisional data.

Among corporate news, Axis Bank will be in focus. With reference to a news item titled "I-T dept probing Axis Bank staff for allegedly facilitating benami deals," the bank clarified after market hours yesterday, 3 December 2018, that the matter reported in certain sections of the media pertains to a complaint received by the bank in March 2018, referring to incidents of an earlier period. 

An internal inquiry in this regard has already been conducted by the bank. In case there are any queries from the income tax authorities in the said matter, the bank, as always, shall fully co-operate with the concerned authorities. The bank has always adhered to the highest standards of regulatory compliance and will continue to work towards maintaining a strict code of conduct in all spheres of business that it undertakes, it said.

The 2nd quarter real GDP growth fell to 7.1% YoY, lower than the primarily due to the weaker-than-expected services sector. Although fiscal spending and investments posted a double-digit growth, weak private consumption and very high net imports dragged GDP growth in Q2FY19.  Implied domestic savings rate also fell to a new low of 25.6% in Q2FY19, while investment rate improved to 30.9% on account of a wider current account deficit (CAD). Growth in investments was driven by the private sector (households & corporate), while government capex declined in the said quarter. 

Recent data showed that strong growth witnessd in H1CY18, was basically due to a favorable base (H1FY18: 6%), which is set to fade off in the 2nd half of the year (H2FY18: 7.4%). Although exports grew by a healthy 13.4% on Yo--Y basis, imports shot up by 25.6% in Q2FY19. As a result, net imports widened, shaving off 2.7pp from GDP growth as compared to the previous quarter. Both, investments and government consumption posted double-digit growths (12.5-13%) in the quarter under scrutiny. 

Although construction growth slowed to 7.8% in the 2nd quater of FY19, from 8.7% in the previous quarter, growth remained in line with the average of 7.5% seen during the last four quarters. Mining GVA declined by 2.4% in Q2FY19 after rising 2.8% on an average during the last four quarters.

The recent encouraging signals coming from the US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping's meeting in Argentina have to some extent succeeded in defusing the impending global trade war. The escalating tensions between the two major trading nation already had a sentimental impact on the financial markets across the world. The news filtering in from that summit that no additional tariffs will be imposed by the US and both the two sides will engage in negotiations, is a big relief for other trading nations, including India. 

Over the past couple of years, the RBI has over-projected headline inflation for six quarters and the actual headline inflation in Q2FY19 was as much as 75 bps lower than its projection. Similarly, as against the market expectation of 4.34 % during the past six months, the actual inflation has averaged 4.11 % 

Interestingly, while headline CPI-inflation has fallen consistently during the past two years, bond yield has risen during the past one year probably due to higher-than-expected actual inflation giving a kick to the expectation of a rise in policy rates. Thereafter, as the market participants dwelled on the details, we after another nine months that the 364-day T-bill (or 1-year G-sec) and not the is the basis for the calculation of the real interest rate. 

Key equity benchmarks extended gains for sixth straight trading session, yesterday. However, the trading was volatile as gains triggered by strong global cues were almost offset by lower-than-expected domestic GDP data. Global shares were upbeat as truce talks between US and Chinese leaders at the G20 summit improved investors' risk appetite.

The Sensex rose 46.70 points or 0.13% to settle at 36,241, its highest closing level since 1 October 2018. The index rose 251.86 points, or 0.70% at the day's high of 36,446.16. The index fell 94.62 points, or 0.26% at the day's low of 36,099.68.

The Nifty 50 index rose 7 points or 0.06% to settle at 10,883.75, its highest closing level since 1 October 2018. The index rose 64.45 points, or 0.59% at the day's high of 10,941.20. The index fell 31.40 points, or 0.29% at the day's low of 10,845.35.

The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose by 0.46% each. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On the BSE, 1,321 shares rose and 1,263 shares fell. A total of 195 shares were unchanged.

Among the sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Realty index (up 2.6%), the S&P BSE Power index (up 2.47%) and the S&P BSE Metal index (up 2.14%), outperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE Healthcare index (down 1.21%), the S&P BSE Energy index (down 0.52%) and the S&P BSE Auto index (down 0.19%), underperformed the Sensex.

#A BUY call was initiated in the shares of Balasore Alloys Ltd near the supports of Rs.27-27.50 for short term targets of Rs.41/62. This is a Pramod Mittal group company. He is the brother of the Kolkata (Calcutta) based Steel baron L N Mittal. When, so much talks are underway, for buying Essar Steel by L N Mittal's Arcelor Mittal, I thought it fit to recommend the scrip of his brother's company. The company has a Captive Chrome Ore Mine in Sukinda Valley in Jaipur District of Orissa which is about 170 kms from  the plant. The mine takes care of the Chrome Ore requirement of the Company. 
The company was allotted Manganese ore mines at Balaghat district of Madhya Pradesh. The produce from mines of Balaghat Sector is coveted for its low Phos and Low Fe content. Commercial operation in the said mines has commenced. 
This is a safe scrip to buy and hold considering its high book value and low risk due to it having mines. It is pertinent to mention here that Ferrochromium is having its maximum share of consumption in the steel industry and due to the ever - increasing demands from the construction and steel sectors, the global ferrochromium market is forecasted to flourish in the near future. The Asia Pacific is having the maximum market share in global ferrochromium market with China and India taking the lead.  Europe is an emerging market in the field of ferrochrome and is anticipated to have a considerable market share in future due to its flourishing automobile sector. In North America and Latin America, the demand for Ferrochrome is slowly picking up. The global ferrochromium market is anticipated to be in deficit to cater the increasing global steel demands, in near future. Ferrochromium is mostly produced in India, China, South Africa and Kazakhstan because of their large chromite resources. 

#Yesterday, the shares of my well researched company Omkar Speciality Ltd and its group company Lasa Supergenerics Ltd hit their respective buyer freezes at Rs.14.10 and Rs.22.45 in the NSE. Both these stocks will give superb returns going forward and hence accumulate in declines (if any). To make money on a consistent basis, there is no need to invest in 100s of scrips. Just choose 3-4 of them at a given time and keep on investing or reducing your stakes in them, as the company either fares well or its fundamentals starts to go down. I might be recommending a momentum counter today or tomorrow, first to the Premium Member and then in Twitter (Handle: suman2009s). If you want to get the 1st mover advantage, then you need to join the Premium Information Service and get the required discounts; which is valid till 31st December 2018.

#Those who had earlier invested in the shares of Aro Granite Industries Ltd can average near the CMP of Rs.51 and exit near Rs.55-56 levels, ekeing out slight profits. The scrip is not performing according to expectations and hence it is better to put the money elsewhere. 

#The scrip of Kwality Ltd (Rs.10.50) which was hitting upper circuits eased after touching a high of around Rs.11.90 Profit booking was suggested to the Premium Members who bought around Rs.7, when it came down. The scrip might come down to Rs.8.5 before taking a fresh upmove. Though the company is facing temporary cash cruch, but these are blue chips in their respective sectors and the investors should do well to accumulate them on market declines, albeit with appropriate stop losses. I had said the same for Vedanta Ltd and Hindalco Ltd when they fell near their all-time lows, around a couple of years back. 

#Another encouraging development is that the Bank Nifty (26857.55) almost touched my target of 27000, I gave last month. You can book profits and wait for dips to enter The Entry and Exit levels will be mentioned to the Premium Members only.  

~~with inputs from Capital Market Live News and other sources including net searches and brokerage reports.

Saturday, December 01, 2018

Winning Strokes: Think Different
Domestic shares inched up, extending gains for fifth day in a row, supported by recent weakness in crude oil prices and strength in local currency. Increase in fund flows from foreign portfolio investors also boosted sentiment. The benchmark indices, which opened on a strong note, settled with small gains after briefly slipping into negative terrain in afternoon trade.

Investors took some profits off the table ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Argentina, which many hope will help ease escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

The Sensex rose 23.89 points or 0.07% to settle at 36,194.30, its highest closing level since 1 October 2018. The index rose 218.81 points, or 0.60% at the day's high of 36,389.22. The index fell 87.44 points, or 0.24% at the day's low of 36,082.97.

The Nifty 50 index rose 18.05 points or 0.17% to settle at 10,876.75, its highest closing level since 1 October 2018. The index rose 63.75 points, or 0.59% at the day's high of 10,922.45. The index fell 23.60 points, or 0.22% at the day's low of 10,835.10.

Among secondary barometers, the BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.56%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.52%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was almost even. On BSE, 1300 shares rose and 1303 shares fell. A total of 157 shares were unchanged.

Among the sectoral indices on BSE, the S&P BSE Realty index (up 1.96%), the S&P BSE Healthcare index (up 1.78%), the S&P BSE IT index (up 1.03%) outperformed the Sensex. The S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.96%), the S&P BSE Metal index (down 0.51%), the S&P BSE Bankex (down 0.48%) underperformed the Sensex.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 69.77, compared with its close of 69.85 during the previous trading session.
In the global commodities markets, Brent for January 2019 settlement was off 51 cents at $59 a barrel. The contract had risen 75 cents, or 1.28% to settle at $59.51 a barrel during the previous trading session.

India imports majority of its crude requirements and a decline in crude eases concerns on fiscal deficit, inflation and gives more room for the government to boost growth through spending on infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina for the 2018 G20 summit, which is scheduled to begin today, 30 November 2018. The theme of the G20 summit is Building Consensus for a Fair and Sustainable Development.

According to reports, PM Modi met with Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the sidelines of the G20 summit and they discussed ways to further boost economic, cultural and energy ties. The two sides also held discussions on enhancing investment in technology, renewable energy and food security.

On the sidelines of the two-day 13th G-20 summit, Modi, Trump and Japanese Premier Shinzo Abe will reportedly hold a trilateral meeting amidst China flexing its muscles in the strategic Indo-Pacific region. The trilateral, which would be an expansion of the bilateral meeting between Trump and Abe, is part of the series of meetings the US president would have on the sidelines of the G-20 summit on November 30 and December 1.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday, 29 November 2018, relaxed rules for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) to sell or securitise their loan books. In order to encourage non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) to securitise/assign their eligible assets, RBI has been decided to relax the minimum holding period (MHP) requirement for originating NBFCs, in respect of loans of original maturity above 5 years, to receipt of repayment of six monthly instalments or two quarterly instalments (as applicable). However, minimum retention requirement (MRR) for such securitisation/assignment transactions shall be 20% of the book value of the loans being securitised/20% of the cash flows from the assets assigned. The above dispensation shall be applicable to securitisation/assignment transactions carried out during a period of six months from the date of issuance of this circular. Other terms and conditions of the above referred directions remain the same, RBI said.

Overseas, European stocks were trading lower, while Asian markets settled mixed as key leaders congregated for a major event in Argentina. Leaders from around the globe are set to discuss key issues during this two-day G-20 summit, with many investors paying close attention to two leaders in particular: President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping.ss

In Asia, growth in China's services industry slowed for the second straight month in November, an official survey showed. The official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on Friday fell to 53.4 from 53.9 in October, but remained well above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.

Growth in China's manufacturing sector stalled for the first time in over two years in November. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in November from 50.2 in October, data showed on Friday. The 50-point mark is considered neutral territory, indicating no growth in activity or contraction on a monthly basis.

US stocks reversed direction to close lower Thursday as investors' attention shifted to a weekend meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Speaking to the media, Trump said he was "close to doing something with China" but that he wasn't sure he wanted to, citing revenue from tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump on Thursday tweeted that "billions of dollars" are pouring into the US Treasury from tariffs and that there is "a long way to go."
On the US data front, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week rose to 234,000, their highest level in six months, according to the Labor Department.

The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending in October rose by 0.6%, while income rose by 0.5%. The same release showed personal-consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, right at the central bank's target of 2% year-over-year.

The National Association of Realtors reported that US pending home sales slid 2.6% in October from September, to their lowest level since June 2014.

Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.14.25) jumped 11.92%. The Supreme Court today ordered the Department of Telecommunications (Union of India) to grant a No-Objection to Reliance Communications for spectrum trading within 7 days. RCom's 100% subsidiary, Reliance Realty, will submit a Corporate Guarantee of Rs 1,400 crore within 2 days. The Supreme Court upheld the earlier order of the Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT), and no Bank Guarantee is now required. The Spectrum trading transaction will now be completed and RCOM will pay-off Ericsson and minority investors of Reliance Infratel (RITL). RCom's asset monetization program thus proceeds as per plans. The scrip was recommended some weeks back in this block and was told foretold what was going to be the outcome of the Supreme Court Judgement.

Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd (Rs.13.45) hit the 3rd consecutive buyer freeze yesterday. The scrip was recommended a number of times in this blog and I am sure this scrip, which is thoroughly researched by me, would give stupendous returns going forward. A similar scrip, Global Offshore Services Ltd recommended at around Rs.11-12, made a high of Rs.20.40, almost doubling the holding in just few months.

Those who are holding the shares of Ishan Dyes and Chemicals Ltd  (Rs.55.55) has broken below the stop loss levels and hence those who have made profit in the counter should exit and invest in the next momentum scrip which I will mention in this blog on Monday.. To take the 1st mover advantage, you need to join the Premium Information Service, and take benefits of the discount offer which is valid till 31st December, 2018.

The shares of Uttam Galva Steels Ltd which was recommended at several prices yesterday hit another buyer freeze at Rs.12.10 in the NSE. I am anticipating a similar move in the shares of Uttam Value Steels Ltd (Re.0.10) in the next few months. Hence remain invested or buy the scrip in every decline

The scrip of Tata Steel Ltd (Rs.529.30) was recommended as a buy to the Premium Members at around Rs.522, for short term targets of Rs.541/587. After the acquisition of Bhusan Steel Ltd (which I recommended at around Rs.26.40 some days back on Twitter, CMP: Rs27.15), Tata Steel Ltd has started to show marked improvement in performance.

~~with inputs from Capital Market Live News.....

Friday, November 16, 2018

Winning Strokes: Think Different
Domestic stocks settled with modest gains following recent weakness in crude oil prices. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 118.55 points or 0.34% to settle at 35,260.54. The Nifty 50 index rose 40.40 points or 0.38% to settle at 10,616.70.

Among secondary barometers, the BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.74% to 14,992.48. The BSE Small-Cap index was flat at 14,548.04.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative. On BSE, 1099 shares rose and 1497 shares fell. A total of 139 shares were unchanged.

Yes Bank lost 7.42%. The bank informed that Ashok Chawla, non-executive independent part-time chairman, has tendered his resignation from the Bank's Board, with immediate effect, mentioning that during the current transition period, the Bank would need a Chairman who could devote more time and attention. The bank shall in due course announce the appointment of a Chairman, post RBI's approval. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 14 November 2018.

With the merger of Vodafone India with Idea Cellular, Grasim Industries' shareholding in the merged entity, Vodafone Idea (VIL) now stands at 11.55%. Consequently, VIL ceased to be an ‘Associate' of the company with effect from 31 August 2018. Accordingly, the share in profit after tax of VIL has not been consolidated with effect from 31 August 2018. The exceptional item of Rs.2003 crore represents the difference between book value and fair value of VIL as on 30 August 2018. This has been charged to the Profit and Loss Account, consequent to VIL ceasing to be an ‘Associate'.

In the global commodities markets, Brent for January 2019 settlement was off 4 cents at $66.08 a barrel. The contract rose 65 cents, or 0.99% to settle at $66.12 a barrel during the previous trading session.

India imports majority of its crude requirements and a decline in crude eases concerns on fiscal deficit, inflation and gives more room for the government to boost growth through spending on infrastructure.

Overseas, most European and Asian stock shares edged higher on Thursday as investors digest the latest news on Brexit. British Prime Minister Theresa May said she had obtained enough support for her proposed Brexit deal to move forward. The uncertainty surrounding a deal had earlier weighed on risk sentiment.

US stocks closed lower Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its longest losing streak in three months, as blue-chip Apple Inc. flirted with bear-market territory.
Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday expressed confidence in US economic strength and said that markets will have to get used to the idea that the central bank could raise rates at any time starting in 2019.

On the US data front, the Labor Department said the consumer-price index rose by 0.3%, while core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%.

#The shares of Global Offshore Services Ltd recommended in this blog around Rs.12. yesterday touched Rs.20.04 in the BSE last month. Congratulations to all those who made money in this scrip. 

#The shares of Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd yesterday rose to Rs.12.9, before closing flat at Rs.12.33. Omkar Specialty Chemicals Ltd is a Chemical Company in Mumbai, India, engaged in the production of Specialty Chemicals and Pharma Intermediates.

#The shares of Jet Airways Ltd (Rs.320.95) unexpectedly rose to Rs.334.9 based on the market rumour that Tata Group is going to take-over the company. But then with a debt of around Rs.12000 crore in its books and Tata group being already leveraged due its bet on Bhusan Steel Ltd bet, I have doubts about the turnaround of the Jet Airways Ltd, at least in the near future. I still maintain a sell on the scrip and feel that it would touch Rs.210/189 in the short term. Meanwhile, both the companies have brushed aside the media rantings, as "speculative". 

#I have recommended Uttam Value Steel Ltd (Re.0.15) to the punters who are subscribers to my Premium Information Service. The blog readers who are looking for a long term steel turnaround story can look at the stock of Uttam Value Steels Ltd, which was earlier known as Lloyd Steel Ltd. Uttam Value Steels reported operational revenue of Rs.2,704.2 crore for 2017-18, with a net loss of Rs.467 crore. It has a hot-rolled production capacity of 1 MT in Wardha. It buys pig iron from Uttam Galva Metallics, which is privately owned by the group. Now to set up a 1 MT steel plant, at least Rs.5000-6000 crore is needed. On Money Control BV of Uttam Value is shown as -Rs.1.17. It has Re.1 has face value. 
But 1 MT steel plant having a market cap of only Rs.125 crore is salivating, especially when ET reported on October 12 that JSW Steel, Liberty House, Aion Capital, Phoenix ARC and SSG Capital had submitted expressions of interest (EoIs) for the two subsidiaries of Uttam Galva Steels that owed Rs.3,200 crore and Rs.2,200 crore, respectively, to lenders. 
The ET on 31st October further wrote that: Prudent ARC, Asset Reconstruction Company (India) Limited (Arcil), a consortium led by SSG Capital Management and another consortium led by New Zone Intertrade FZE have joined the list of eligible resolution applicants for debt-ridden Uttam Value Steels and Uttam Galva Metallics. To add to the positives about Uttam Value Steels Ltd (Re.0.19 in the BSE) Live Mint reported on 1 November, that The State Bank of India had withdrawn an insolvency petition against this Mumbai-based steel company. The state-run lender’s move came after ArcelorMittal paid ₹7,469 crore to clear outstanding debts of Uttam Galva and KSS Petron, two companies in which Lakshmi Niwas Mittal had been a promoter. 
It is worth mentioning that On 24 March, Uttam Galva Steels Ltd (Rs.11.86) informed the exchanges it had received approvals from BSE and the National Stock Exchange to declassify the world’s largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal as a promoter of the company. ArcelorMittal had held a 29.1% stake since 2009 in the company.This leaves us to guess whether ArcelorMittal would be buying out the stake in Uttam Value Steel Ltd or not as the commodity cycle has started to move up with a spurt in the Crude Oil prices. The risk taking investors or punters can buy the scrip of Uttam Value Steels Ltd in the NSE aroud Re.0.15 and keep holding, for targets above Re.1, in the next couple of years.

#Yesterday, Bank Nifty gained 0.5% to closed near 25950 level due to buying witnessed in selective heavyweights. I still maintain the target of 27000 in the short term.

#Nifty opened positive but failed to cross the level of 10650. Nifty has been consolidating around 10450 to 10650 zones from last eight trading sessions. Nifty now has to hold above 10550 zone to further continue its upmove towards 10650/10750 marks. On the downside support exists at 10500 then 10450 levels.

#There is no stopping of the upmove of the share Sunil High Tech Ltd (Rs.2.83), which was recommended to the Punters at around 1.15, on Twitter. The scrip gave superb returns to the investors and has been hitting repeated circuits after that.....

#If you are genuinely interested in making money from the markets then bring in a fund of around Rs.3-5 lakhs, I will help you cover all your losses, through decent trading. If you can generate more funds, then profits would be much higher as money begets money. There will NO MARGIN TRADING -- only delivery based investments and occasional option trading.

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Market Mantra
After hovering near flat line in morning trade, key equity indices bounced back in mid-morning trade. At 12:10 IST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was trading at 35,300 up 158.90 points while Nifty was seen at 10,6184 up 2.65 points. 

Most metal and FMCG shares advanced.

Among secondary barometers, the BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.17%. The BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.03%.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative. On BSE, 931 shares rose and 1249 shares fell. A total of 109 shares were unchanged.

Alkem Laboratories rose 1.23% after the company said that USFDA has concluded inspection at its Taloja facility. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 14 November 2018. Alkem Laboratories said that USFDA had conducted an inspection at the company's Bioequivalence facility located at Taloja, Maharashtra from 8 November 2018 to 14 November 2018. At the end of the inspection, no Form 483 was issued.

Overseas, most Asian shares were trading higher after an improvement in market risk sentiment after British Prime Minister Theresa May said she had obtained enough support for her proposed Brexit deal to move forward. The uncertainty surrounding a deal had earlier weighed on risk sentiment.
US stocks closed lower Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its longest losing streak in three months, as blue-chip Apple Inc. flirted with bear-market territory.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday expressed confidence in US economic strength and said that markets will have to get used to the idea that the central bank could raise rates at any time starting in 2019.

On the US data front, the Labor Department said the consumer-price index rose by 0.3%, while core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%.

#Sell the shares of Jet Airways Ltd at around the CMP of Rs.275.15, for short term targets of Rs.210/189. It has a negative worth. Its outstanding to employees, vendors, oil companies, AAI, maintenance contractors, lessors & other suppliers has crossed Rs 12,000 Cr, according to a report in Rediff.com. The Stop Loss for Jet Airways Ltd is Rs.285 and Rs.292 (exit completely), in case the stock does not perform as expected. SELL, SELL, SELL!!

#A2z Infra Engineering Ltd (Rs.13.85) yesterday made an intraday high of Rs.13.85, while today it touched Rs.14.50, intraday. Buy the shares on all market declines.

#The scrip of Omkar  Speciality Chemicals Ltd is trading at around Rs.12.55 in the BSE, up 2.12%. Accumulate on declines.

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Market Mantra
The market extended gains and hit fresh intraday high in mid-afternoon trade, backed by positive opening in the European market. At 15:15 IST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was trading at 35,148.46 up 335.47 points or 0.96% while Nifty was seen at 10,584.50 up 102.30 points or 0.98%.

The Nifty 50 index was up 91.15 points or 0.87% at 10,573.35. Gains were supported by firmness in oil sector stocks. The Sensex regained 35,000 mark in mid-afternoon trade.

Among secondary barometers, the BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.09%. The BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.07%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative. On BSE, 1214 shares rose and 1292 shares fell. A total of 127 shares were unchanged.

On the economic front, India's industrial production grew 4.5% in September compared with the upward revised 4.7% in August, data released by the statistics office showed. August growth had initially been estimated at 4.3%.

Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index stood at 3.31% in October compared to 3.70% in September, showed government data released on Monday.

Overseas, European equity markets opened higher on Tuesday, following a pullback in stocks stateside. Investors are keeping a close eye on oil prices, after new comments from President Donald Trump. He said that the group of oil producers OPEC should not cut supply to prop up the market.
Asian shares were mixed on the back of US stocks closing sharply lower Monday. In US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 600 points as crude oil prices extended their retreat while a firmer US dollar also sparked worries about the competitiveness of US corporations in an increasingly challenging economic environment.

#Buy the shares of A2z Infra Engineering (Rs.13.35) for short term targets of Rs.17/22/36/42. SL: Rs.9.40.
Shareholding Pattern:
  • SICOM -- 3.57%
  • Standard Chartered Bank -> 7.13%
  • Aspire Emerging Fund (an FPI) -> 1.53%
  • Edelweiss Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd -> 6.49%.
  • Shankar Sharma, an Ace Investor -> 4.66%.
On 27 July, A2Z Infra Engineering announced OTS with lenders of A2Z Green Waste Management towards Debt of Rs.275.94 Cr, for a total consideration of Rs.70 crore.  On that day it hit 20% UC & was trading above Rs.24. Shankar Sharma is reported to have recently recommended it. This is going to be multibagger going forward as it has cut down its debts substantially and has good order book position. 

#The scrip of Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd and its sister concern Lasa Supergenerics Ltd hit their respective buyer freezes at Rs.11.71 and Rs.26.15 on the BSE. Congratulations to those who bought the scrip on my recommendation. 

#The Nifty would continue to get support above 10500 and would move towards 10700 in the coming days. The small and micro-cap rally is about to being as November-effect has kicked in. Therefore, book your seats in advance in this space.

#The scrip of Ishan Dyes & Chemicals Ltd (Rs.57.50) is consolidating around the current ranges before the next level of Upmove which is likely to take the scrip above Rs.67. Keep holding with a SL of Rs.56.

~~with inputs from Capital Market Live News.....

Monday, November 12, 2018

Crude Oil: Where the Prices can go?
Photo: Market Watch


The near WTI futures price is down 23% since peaking on October 3rd as traders front ran the Iranian oil sanctions, which went in to place this week.  Fearing spiking oil prices, the U.S. granted waivers to eight of Iran’s largest buyers of crude – China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan, and Turkey.

According to a report in the Economic Times, The oil bears are back, and they’re looking at OPEC before making their next move. While money managers slashed bets on rising West Texas Intermediate crude prices for a ninth week in their longest retreat on record, short-selling jumped to the highest in more than a year. The rapid shift in sentiment sets the stage for an OPEC meeting on Sunday to discuss market conditions. 

Now let us fathom a bit more:
Bulls
#Bottom might be near for crude. WTI’s 14-day relative strength index is below 30, a level marking
Photo: Live Mint
oversold territory.
#Iran supplying less crude.
#Declining production in Venezuela and risks in countries like Libya and Nigeria.
#Winter demands should keep the price of Crude Buoyant.
#If oil isn’t the undoing of this current bull stock market or a reflection of a souring economy, some market participants believe that one way or another, the end is nigh.
#OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia believes the energy market has over-corrected in recent weeks. It comes as the world's top oil exporter grapples with a sharp drop in crude prices, amid cooling supply fears about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran.Saudi Arabia's energy minister also said the wider OPEC and non-OPEC alliance would not shy away from another round of production cuts over the coming weeks — if the group decided there was a need for such action.
#According to Ashray Ohri of ICICI Bank Ltd, “While a further fall may be warranted based on US’s temporary exemption on Iran and demand concerns, we believe oil prices are more likely to move to the upside as Iran exports get depleted further.” Having said that, is $80 a barrel on the horizon?
We believe a Brent rebound above the $80 a barrel level is less likely based on the current fundamentals and more responsible statements made by the US administration,” wrote Ohri in a report on 6 November. “As such, we expect oil prices to trade around the $75 a barrel mark and average $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, before cooling further to average $75 a barrel in Q1 2019.”

Bears:
#The net-long position in Brent dropped 15% to 260,048 contracts, ICE Futures Europe data show.
Longs fell 11%, while shorts rose 8%.
#Money managers cut their net-long positions on benchmark US gasoline by 8.2% and cut net-longs on diesel by 13%, according to the CFTC. 
#OPEC production at the highest since 2016.
#Record US output and waivers given to a number of importers of Iranian crude, including China. 
#Very large monthly down moves in crude oil has often heralded something more ominous.
Photo: Oil Price.com
# Few market participants believe that crude’s current downturn is a reflection of global economic weakness and precursor of something more pernicious to come, like a recession.
#Some market participants believe that  believes that the decline oil may fuel hedge fund selling and catalyze further pain for equity owners.
#Friday’s reading of U.S. wholesale inflation in October represented the biggest increase in six years and affirmed to some that the Federal Reserve would lift interest rates for a fourth time in 2018 next month and perhaps thrice more in 2019. That fact, combined with a slowdown in China’s economy and the hand-wringing around the Beijing-Washington trade dispute, have led some strategists to believe that the market is heading for a bear-market slide.
#There are reasons to be cautious about future returns: the growth/inflation mix is deteriorating and markets often have a sharp correction followed by a sharp rally prior to a more sustained bear market,” Goldman analysts wrote.
#According to Goldman, its indicator at 73% marks the highest bear-market reading since the late 1960s and early 1970s, which (with a few exceptions) is consistent with returns of zero over the following 12 months. Any reading above 60% signals that subsequent returns will be lower.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told CNBC on Sunday: "Markets get it wrong occasionally as they did a few weeks ago on one side and they're doing it again on the other today, but ultimately the pendulum will swing to a reasonable middle". 

Testing Key Levels:
After bottoming below $42 on June 1, 2017, WTI’s 2-year uptrend has been violated and now testing critical Fibonacci retracement levels.  It has already sliced through the .382 at $63.32 and is now set to test the .500 at $59.12. The next key level is the .618 at around $55, which, if broken, it significantly increases the risk of giving it all back.


 Sources: