Hindalco Industries Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.89.85

Courtesy: Quandl.com

Stock of India’s Hindalco Industries Ltd has experienced a correction of around 6% over the last two trading sessions on the National Stock Exchange of India. Some experts say the slide in the Aditya Birla Group subsidiary is due to a similar dip in the price of primary aluminium on the LME.

However, here are few of the positive points based on which you can buy the share of Hindalco Industries Ltd, for a short term target of Rs.97:

(i)  The sector has experienced a rise in demand of 6%, Chinese speculators appear to be responsible for most of the demand.

(ii) According to  Abhishek Poddar of Kotak Securities Ltd: "A large chunk of inventories is held by traders, banks or is locked in financial deals. Any rise in the interest rates will increase the cost of carry and lead to sharp unwinding" — a material risk to aluminium prices. However, the interest rate is on a downward trajectory in India and the in the US too, the Fed appears to be treading this path very carefully. On Friday, Labor Department figures showing that U.S. job growth slowed in April kept alive the bet on riskier markets. The data gave the Federal Reserve little reason to raise interest rates soon, economists said - -a move that could withdraw any further support to the USD.

“I was like ‘phew,’ ” said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of currency strategy at Pioneer Investments, after the weaker-than-expected jobs numbers were announced on Friday. “I breathed a sigh of relief that this risk rally will continue.”

Mr. Upadhyaya, whose firm manages $249 billion, has shut down his bullish positions on the dollar in recent months in favor of emerging-market currencies, including the Indian rupee, Russian ruble and Argentine peso.

(iii) Base metals edged higher in Tuesday morning LME trading, pausing after Monday’s correction lower. Better-than-expected Chinese data helped prices to consolidate. The Chinese CPI rose 2.3%  year-on-year in April, in line with consensus and unchanged from last month, while its PPI fell by a less-than-expected 3.4% compared with -4.3% in March. China's April consumer inflation and producer price data painted a mixed picture of deflationary pressures in the world's second largest economy.

Expectations of further monetary policy easing had already been dented by strong March China data, but economists are divided over whether that was just a blip or a more sustainable trend.
"I think monetary policy will be kept steady with structural easing - targeted easing for some sectors," said Nie Wen, economist at Hwabao Trust in Shanghai.

“[Metals] are clearly finding support from the less steep decline in producer prices in China in April. One role in this is likely played by the fact that the dampening effect of commodity prices is gradually moving away from the year-on-year comparison,” Commerzbank noted.

(iv) Hindalco Ltd has no plans for adding capacity in the near future, and the current facilities are running at 85% of the existing capacity. At present, Hindalco’s stock is trading at seven times EV/EBIDTA (enterprise value to earnings before interest depreciation and tax). Historically, most metals and mining companies, both in India and worldwide, trade at between five and six times EV/EBIDTA--which means CMP of Hindalco Industries Ltd is on the boundary line. So any uptick in the Q4FY16 result (on 28 May, 2016), could give a sudden push in the share price. 

(v) The powerful rallies that have lifted stocks, crude oil and emerging markets for the past three months have one important thing in common—the falling dollar. A  stronger U.S. currency, makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for non-U.S. firms.

Morgan Stanley’s Global Risk Demand Index, which measures risk appetite by analyzing moves in markets such as stocks, commodities, and emerging markets, is moving nearly in the opposite direction of dollar strength. The correlation reached negative 86% in early April.

A large negative correlation means risky assets tend to fall when the dollar gains and rise when the dollar falls. As of May 5, the correlation was minus-76%.

The Fed began the year with plans to raise interest rates four times after boosting rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December. But in March, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled that the central bank was in no hurry to raise interest rates, citing slower global growth.

Federal-funds futures, used by investors and traders to place bets on central-bank policy, showed Friday that the odds for a rate increase at the Fed’s June meeting were 13%, while the chances of a rate increase at the December meeting were 61%, according to CME 

(vi) Global oil demand is catching up with supply and the market should see a “rebalancing” in the second half of the year as cheaper crude has forced some production to close, Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammad Al Sada said.

The rate of production shutdowns is accelerating and global demand is increasing, especially for products such as gasoline, Al Sada said in an e-mailed statement on Tuesday. “This trend is likely to increase further from next month due to the onset of the summer driving season,” the minister said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will review the current oil market and the outlook for supply and demand at its next meeting on June 2, Al Sada, who is also OPEC president, said in the statement. 

Oil prices rose Tuesday on expectations that supply outages from Canada to Nigeria would help to alleviate the global glut of crude.

Light, sweet crude for June delivery settled up $1.22, or 2.8%, to $44.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, rose $1.89, or 4.3%, to $45.52 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Oil-production outages in some regions are helping reduce crude output, boosting expectations that the global glut of crude that has battered prices since mid-2014 could be shrinking. 

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its earlier crude oil price forecast, originally issued in April, but now expected to be around $40.52 per barrel, up $6 from its April estimates of only $34.73 per barrel for the average price of crude in 2016.

"Improving economic data, growing supply disruptions, and falling U.S. crude oil production and rig counts contributed to the price increase," the EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report released recently.

Oil has rebounded after slumping to a 12-year low in January on signs the global glut is easing as U.S. output decreases. Production outside OPEC will drop the most since 1992 as the U.S. shale oil boom falters, the International Energy Agency said in April.

You can see from the chart above, that even after correction the Aluminium prices are still substantially higher, than the bottom formed at the end of 2015. At the end of last week, aluminium prices were 5% higher than the average for the previous 26 weeks.

Therefore, unless the scrip of Hindalco Industries Ltd breaks down below Rs.89.30 on closing basis, the traders can take short term BUY POSITIONS (above Rs.91.20 buy more), for targets of Rs.97-103. 

Aluminium Supply to Tighten, Prices to Rise: Rusal’s Soloviev

26 April 2016:  Global demand for aluminium will continue to remain strong as worldwide supply tightens. This will raise prices from seven-year lows, says Vladislav Soloviev, chief executive of Russia’s UC Rusal, the world’s second-biggest aluminium producer.

Exports of processed aluminium from the People’s Republic of China are expected to drop thanks to investigations of the fake semis market and resulting anti-dumping measures taken by the United States, Australia, and the European Union, explained Soloviev.

“Rusal estimates that [global] aluminium consumption will grow by 5.7 per cent to 59.5 million tonnes this year,” he told the South China Morning Post. “Chinese growth is expected to continue to be strong at 7 per cent year-on-year in 2016 to 31 million tonnes.”

He went on to explain that the automotive and aerospace sectors should lead demand growth, followed closely by the construction, electrical, consumer durables, and packaging sectors. As to supply, additions in capacity by China aren’t expected to make up for closures in the remainder of the market.

“We see no new significant capacity additions over the next five years outside China, with [the supply] deficit forecast to [rise] sharply in 2016 and expected to surpass 2.4 million tonnes this year,” Soloviev said.

Soloviev projects that China will idle an additional 1 million metric tons of capacity if prices hold at current levels. This is in addition to the 1 million metric tons projected to close by the end of the current quarter.

“Around 50 per cent of closed capacity is highly unprofitable at [an aluminium] price below 12,000 yuan [US$1,847.90] per tonne [and] thus has little chance to be restarted,” Soloviev said.

He went on to explain that, even if prices rebound in the immediate future, restarting closed capacity would still not be profitable due to tight supply of bauxite and alumina, and the correspondingly inflated prices of same.

In addition to tightening supply, aluminium prices have risen by ten percent in the previous month to a six-month high of US$1,635 per metric ton. China also has had a drop in the addition of capacity for four straight years up through 2014, according to analysts at Haitong Securities.

“With alumina price rebounding from the trough, the implementation of fees charged by grid operators on grid-connected power plants owned by [smelters], and power plant facilities upgrades to meet more stringent pollution reduction requirements, [mean that] aluminium production costs will rise,” said Haitong Securities in a report. “With supply slightly tight, aluminium price is set to continue its rebound.”

However, according to a China International Capital Corp. report, China’s plant utilization rate ran at only 75% capacity in 2015, with 12.5% of it consisting of idled or curtailed capacity.

China’s excess capacity problem is “structural rather than cyclical,” according to Soloviev, and fueled by cheap financing and government subsidies over the past several years.
“This is a vicious cycle: while volumes increase, prices and margins fall,” he explained. “This makes it impossible to invest in innovation or create new high-end products … the best solution would be to keep four to five large players [by consolidating] the industry.

Courtesy: Aluminium Insider

JSW Energy: High energy!

BSE Code: 533148,

CMP: Rs.67.70,

 FV: Rs.10.

-By Subramanian Mahadevan

Mumbai-based JSW Energy Ltd is a part of the $11 billion conglomerate - JSW group, a part of the O.P. Jindal group with strong footprints across core economic sectors namely steel, energy, infrastructure, cement ventures and sports with a diverse workforce of over 40,000 spread across India, USA, South America and Africa. It launched its IPO in December 2009 at an issue price of Rs.100/share to raise around Rs.2700 crore. JSW Energy operates 4,531 MW (Thermal – MW and Hydel – 1,391 MW) of power generation capacity with a vision to achieve 10,000 MW in power generation by 2020 coupled with transparent operations and stringent corporate governance norms setting benchmarks in the Indian power sector. 

During the last six years, JSW Energy has enhanced its power generation capacity from 260 MW to 4,531 MW (17.4 times) by strategic approach to expansion, ensuring diversity in geographic locations, fuel sources and power off-take arrangements and eventually helping itself to de-risk the business during tough times. Despite numerous acquisitions, JSW Energy’s debt:equity ratio still remains comfortable at 1.8 compared to its peers. 

The current challenging environment is affecting the profit margins of the power sector, which will no longer be a problem once the broader economy and industrial growth picks up. We have a strong Buy on this uninterrupted dividend-paying Company for decent returns. 

Reliance Communications Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.54.20

Reliance Jio has now empowered the group employees, who had got the trial SIM earlier, to bring 10 more people to the 4G network through a referral invite system. 

The ET reported yesterday, that

This is the first step of Reliance Jio's soft launch and it could be the turning point for Reliance Communications too.

Moreover, RTN Asia reported that Reliance Communications has upgraded its 4G network in 9 circles, with a data offer of 10 GB. This is likely to drive up data traffic for Reliance Communications.

Meanwhile, RNT Asia has also come up with an exclusive news on the topic today: Reliance Jio, the 4G operator from the RIL stable, has started expanding its trial services to the public, but through an invite-only system.

With this, you can go and get a trial SIM and a LYF phone, but you need to get the special invite — a bit like buying a OnePlus phone. To buy a OnePlus phone, you have to register for the sale and the company then hands out invites to those who have registered or who have already bought their phone or won contests.

Reliance Communications’ 4G upgrade has so far been rolled out in nine circles, and will reach the other states by around the 10th or 15th of this month.

Therefore, buy or average the shares of Reliance Communications at around the support of Rs.54.20-54.30, for short term Target's of Rs.59-60.

Reliance Communications Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.54.40

The ET reported today, that Reliance Jio has now empowered the group employees, who had got the trial SIM earlier, to bring 10 more people to the 4G network through a referral invite system. 

This is the first step of Reliance Jio's soft launch and it could be the turning point for Reliance Communications too.

Moreover, RTN reported that Reliance Communications has upgraded its 4G network in 9 circles, with a data offer of 10 GB. This is likely to drive up data traffic for Reliance Communications.

Therefore, buy or average the shares of Reliance Communications at around the support of Rs.54.20-54.30, for short term Target's of Rs.59-60.

Jindal brothers agree on power plant deal: Sources 

NEW DELHI: Sajjan Jindal's JSW Energy Ltd has all but agreed to buy a 1,000 megawatt power plant from his brother's heavily indebted Jindal Steel and Power Ltd in a deal valued at over $900 million, two sources told Reuters. 

An announcement could come as early as Wednesday, though one of the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said further talks were scheduled for Tuesday night to "discuss a few more things to conclude a deal". 

JSW and Jindal Steel officials have been meeting in New Delhi and Mumbai over the past weeks. A last-minute disagreement over valuation forced JSW to cancel a scheduled news conference last week, according to one of the sources. 

JSW and Jindal Steel officials did not immediately reply to requests for comment outside regular business hours on Tuesday. 

A deal would help reduce debt at Jindal Steel, majority-owned by Sajjan's younger brother Naveen, and would be a boon for top lender State Bank of India (SBI) that has been trying to broker an agreement between the companies. 

Jindal Steel - whose net debt at the end of December was 460 billion rupees ($6.91 billion), or seven times its current market valuation - had been in talks with lenders including SBI to reschedule repayments due to "cash flow mismatches". 

The Jindal brothers once competed to buy foreign assets, but Jindal Steel is now struggling after India's top court cancelled its coal mining licences and a weak commodity market hit margins. 

Buying a coal-fired plant would help JSW in its efforts to nearly triple its power generation capacity to around 12,000 megawatts by early next decade. 

Jindal Steel commissioned the first of the four 250-megawatt units at the site in the Raigarh district of Chhattisgarh in eastern India in 2007, becoming the first private company to set up an independent power plant.

Source: The Economic Times

Do you know?

Reliance Infrastructure has received 15 industrial licences, taking the parent's total licences to 25, the highest number of permits across the spectrum that any private sector company has. It is to be noted that Reliance Defence Ltd is a subsidiary of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd.

Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) plans to manufacture hi-tech electronic warfare systems as well as heavy weapons at its upcoming defence park in Pithampur special economic zone (SEZ), about 30 km from Indore in Dhar district.

Reliance Defence Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd, which is part of the ADAG, applied to the Union ministry of commerce and industry for grant of industrial licences to manufacture a range of defence products in Pithampur.

The Board of Approval for SEZ gave its in-principle approval to the project, subject to certain terms and conditions, at a meeting held in New Delhi on Thursday, sources said.

According to the details mentioned in the application, Reliance Defence Ltd has proposed to manufacture hi-tech equipment, including directed energy weapon, laser for target destruction, high velocity kinetic energy weapon system, and particle beam system for destruction of target.

The firm has proposed to manufacture electronic equipment used for electronic counter measure (ECM) and electronic counter-countermeasure (ECCM), besides heavy weapons (artillery guns, AD guns, mortars, rocket launchers), remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) and unmanned lighter than air vehicles.

The state government has earmarked 300 acres land for Reliance’s defence park in Pithampur SEZ, but the company will need additional land after forming a joint venture (JV) company with Rafael Advanced Defence Systems. “We are in the process of identifying additional land in Pithampur for Reliance,” a state industry department official told the Hindustan Times.

While the state government had cleared the proposal in January, the project got a fillip earlier this month when Reliance signed an agreement with Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defence Systems for manufacturing air-to-air missiles and other systems in Pithampur.

Though the Sensex fell yesterdasy by more than 200 points tracking subdued regional stock markets as weak China factory data rekindled global growth worries; analysts across the board remains optimistic about the health of the domestic economy after strong auto sales data for April and amid hopes of good monsoon.

However, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com, took a contrary view and called the current correction a 'classic case of market moving into a bearish zone' and believes that volatility may continue for a couple of sessions.

Reliance Infrastructure saw a Block Deal on BSE, Qty: 137,456, Deal Price: Rs.539.95, Value: Rs.7.42 Cr, on 3 May, 2016. 

The shares of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd, having a face value of Rs.10, Book Value of Rs.786.79 and EPS of Rs.64.90 is trading very cheap, as compared to many of its peers. The stock of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd, which closed at Rs.535.90, is still trading above its 200D SMA, which is placed at Rs.435.70.

Buy the shares of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd at Rs.535-537, for a short term target of Rs.580. SL--Rs.527. 

Buy calls

1. Buy Allahabad Bank at Rs.56.85, for a target of Rs.64, in the short term. 
As the interest rate comes down gradually and as the Indian GDP improves, Banks in General will fare well on the bourses.

Recently, there were media reports that the public sector lender Allahabad Bank will raise over Rs.57.5 crore by issuing shares on preferential basis to LIC.

The Hindu Business Line reported on 2 May, 2016:
"The rising bad loan level in the banking system did not deter Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), the country’s largest life insurer, from betting big on bank stocks in 2015-16.

The state-owned insurer raised its shareholding in many banks, including Allahabad Bank, Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, IDBI Bank, ICICI Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, and Punjab National Bank during the last financial year.

"In raising its stake, LIC may be pinning its hopes on a turnaround in the fortunes of banks after the clean-up of their balance sheets and a likely revival in the economy".

Another reason why LIC might have increased its stake in some banks including Allahabad Bank, could be Ibecause the finance ministry has categorically asked the PSU banks to step up bad loan recovery and is holding meetings with individual banks on their capital raising plans and how they will be selling their non-core assets.

The GOI had earlier issued statements that state-run banks seeking a share of the Rs.25,000-crore capital infusion by the government will have to show some movement on bad assets before they can petition for funds.

Meanwhile, an Indian finance ministry official said: "We are hopeful to get the bankruptcy law passed in this session of the parliament. In addition, we will introduce changes in SARFAESI (Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest) and DRT (debt recovery tribunal) laws to speed up the recovery process".

Banks that have made presentations to the finance ministry include Allahabad Bank, Bank of Baroda and Bank of India. 

If this happens then it would be a great news for the PSU bank shareholders.

Allahabad Bank has a book value of Rs.192.84 and market cap of Rs.3489.48 Cr. The Bank operates in four divisions: Treasury Operations, Corporate / Wholesale Banking, Retail Banking and Other Banking business. 

The Bank’s personal banking services include deposit products, other credit products, account portability, deceased depositors and All Ayushman Bima Yojana.

2. Buy JSW Energy Ltd at Rs.67.10 for a target of Rs.79.

JSW Energy Ltd, India’s fourth largest private power producer, is in various stages of discussions to buy three power assets, according to a recent media report.

The three power producers are Monnet Power Co. Ltd., Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd and Jindal Power Ltd, a unit of Jindal Steel and Power Ltd. 

The three deals together will add 2,591 megawatts (MW) of power generation capacity to JSW, making it the third largest private producer in India, dislodging Reliance Power Ltd (6,000MW) from the position. Currently, JSW has a total power generation capacity of 4,531MW. 

The top two private power producers are Adani Power Ltd (10,480 MW) and Tata Power Co. Ltd (9,130 MW).

There were also media speculation that JSW Energy Ltd is trying to reduce the cost of acquisition. If this happens, then it would further add to bottom lines of JSW Energy Ltd.

As 30 September, 2016, JSW Energy had a total debt of Rs.14,635.10 crore. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio in the same period was 1.76, which is manageable by any standards.

Also, in the current market conditions, it would be much easier for JSW Energy to raise fresh equity, as a spite of IPOs hit Dalal Street.

Earlier the CLSA said: "The core businesses grew on the back of 25% volume growth and lower fuel costs. Leverage peaked in 2Q and continued to decline in 4Q which is a positive sign". The global investment bank maintains outperform rating as the stock offers value at 8.1x FY17 EPS.

Meanwhile, after the CLSA, another well known research house, the IDFC has also come up with "Outperformer Rating" on JSW Energy Ltd, with a price target of Rs.87.

FULL DESCRIPTION
JSW Energy Limited is an India-based integrated power company. The Company is primarily engaged in generation and sale of power. The Company's operating segments include Power Generation, Power Transmission, Mining, Power Trading and Equipment Manufacturing. The Company produces approximately 3,140 megawatt (MW) of power. The Company's power plants are located at Vijayanagar, Karnataka; Ratnagiri, Maharashtra and Barmer, Rajasthan. The Vijayanagar plant produces 860 MW of power. The Company's subsidiaries include JSW Power Trading Company Limited, JSW Green Energy Limited, JSW Energy (Kutehr) Limited, JSW Energy Natural Resources Mauritius Limited, South African Coal Mining Holdings Limited, Umlabu Colliery Proprietary Limited, Jigmining Operations No 1 Proprietary Limited, Jigmining Operations No 1 Proprietary Limited and JSW Energy Natural Resources UK Limited, among others. The Company's subsidiary JSW Power Trading Company Limited is a power trading firm (Source: Reuters).

Cipla Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.541.10

T: Rs.572

According to The Economic Times, Cpla has set its sights on building a pipeline of speciality drugs in the United States. The company, India's third-largest drugmaker, plans to deploy more funds for research and development in respiratory, dermatology, neurology and oncology segments and hopes for the first commercial launch in the US around 2020.

Scouting for in-licensing opportunities is also part of the plan to jumpstart work, according to the company, which clocked over $2 billion in global sales last year.

Cipla's move is aimed at closing the gap with fellow drugmakers such as Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's and Lupin. The drugmaker, which is going through an uneasy transformation process to professional management over the past four years, had partnered leading generic companies such as Teva but remained on the sidelines in the world's largest drug market.

Winning Strokes: Think Different

Monsoon has its own charm. Even before the sky over Dalal Street got overcast, the Indian equity markets gave another round of thumbs up, to the forecast of above normal rains during the upcoming monsoon season. Moreover, better than expected inflation numbers and IIP data coupled with positive global cues also aided to, today’s smart upmove. 

Idea Cellular Ltd recommended few days back at Rs.117, today touched Rs.124-plus on intra-day. The scrip closed at Rs.123.75, giving handsome gains to the investors.

IRB Infrastructure recommended today at Rs.113.05 touched Rs.115-plus intra-day. The share closed at Rs.114.80 in the BSE.

Reliance Infrastructure today touched Rs.555, before closing at Rs.553, on the NSE. The short term targets for the scrip are Rs.760-770. Moreover, three day visit of the US Secretary of Defence Ash Carter to India, the second in one year, is significant in that it comes in the backdrop of ever-growing multi-dimensional relationship between the two countries with far-reaching repercussions and consequences for the region. The countries will also deepen cooperation in maritime awareness by finalising a "White Shipping" agreement in the near future. This included a tactical bio (logical) detection unit, Carter said --- Advantge Anil Ambani Group (ADAG), L&T, Tata Goup, Rolta Ltd (Rs.77.45), etc...

Some of my earlier, recommended stocks which did well today are BHEL (Rs.129.15, up 2.79%), Vedanta Ltd (Rs.106.45, up 4.36%), Tata Steel (Rs.358.60, up 3.21%), etc.

Gitanjali Gems Ltd today touched Rs.37.60, before closing at Rs.36.85. Meanwhile, the government has given assurance that Ashok Lahiri Committee will consider the demands of jewelry manufacturers. On March 19 there was a extensive meeting by a number of trade bodies which was represented from the government side by Piyush Gupta, and subsequently Amit Shah also came into the meeting and it was agreed that certain draconian laws in the excise will not be levied on the gems and jewellery sector such as excise officers coming into the premises of the jeweller or the manufacturer and as the perception about these excises officers is, they tend to pickup random samples for themselves. 
The jewellers had gone on a strike since March 2 after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in his Budget announced a 1% percent excise tax on non-silver jewellery. 
The introduction of stricter PAN card requirements for purchase of jewellery is unlikely to impact Gitanjali Gems in a major way, says Sanjeev Agarwal, CEO of Gitanjali Export Corp. "Unlike many other listed companies, Gitanjali Group is fully diversified across geographies, product categories and lines," he said.
"While jewellery accounts for 70 percent of our turnover, diamonds account for the remaining 30 percent, which is not impacted," he said.
"Within jewellery, 60 percent of sales are from the international market. For the domestic market also, a majority of our sales are through department stores or ecommerce companies," he added. "So the impact will be very less."
He added Gitanjali brands such as Gili, Nakshatra and Asmi are in the daily consumption and fashion space rather than wedding wear.
"Hence, the price point of sales is much lower than the typical jeweller. Hence, the PAN card norm will also not affect us much."
The scrip of Gitanjali Gems Ltd, will slowly move towards Rs.55-61-67-72, in the days to come;  as according to the experts, the fundamental demand for jewellery is still intact.

IRB Infrastructure Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.113.05

IRB Infrastructure Ltd is basically a BOT player and hence has high margin business.

Moreover, IRB's (blended) margins now stands at 52% according to some media reports. For IRB, the margins in the construction business are 35 per cent; BOT business earns over 80 per cent margins.

It has an order book of Rs.10,600 crore. IRB's current revenue visibility is for the next two to three years.

However, the Foreign brokerage Citi says that any fall in toll revenue growth will add to concerns on IRB's debt. Its debt-equity ratio now stands at 2.71 in FY16 as against 2.52 in FY15.

You can buy the scrip at Rs.213.05, for targets of Rs.217-219-221-224-236. SL- Rs.207.

Note: Today the scrip was recommended to the Paid Group members at Rs.213.05, after which it moved to Rs.215-plus; giving good Intra-day profits.

I do not recommend 100 stocks in a day, resembling monthy grocery list, unlike many others. Join my services to stay ahead of others.

Do You Know..?

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd’s (Rs.546.35) Mumbai power distribution business (known as Reliance Energy Ltd) distributes power to nearly three million residential, industrial and commercial consumers in Mumbai’s suburbs, covering an area of 400 sq km, and catering to a peak demand of over 1,800 MW, with revenues of Rs.7,700 crore in FY2014-15. The Mumbai power distribution business is R-Infra’s biggest, in terms of topline, and accounts for 44% of the company’s consolidated turnover, which stood at Rs.17,198 crore in 2014-15.

Photo: The Economic Tmies

The Reliance Infrastructure earlier signed a non-binding term sheet with Canadian pension fund Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments) to sell 49% stake in the company’s Mumbai power generation, transmission and distribution business. While the proposed transaction is subject due diligence and regulatory approvals, the deal is likely to fetch the company Rs.3,500 crore, if concluded by H1FY16.

Moreover, though the company is yet to conclude the acquisition of Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering, the stake sale of Mumbai power business would boost Reliance Infra’s valuation. 

In other words, successful completion of the deal will help the Anil Ambani-led company substantially de-leverage its balance sheet while retaining control of the business with a 51% stake.

There were earlier media reports that at least half the debt on the company’s books is on account of the Mumbai power transmission and distribution assets, which will be transferred into the new SPV to be formed (along with these assets).

With the cash component that R-Infra will receive as part of the deal, it may further pare debt at the level of the parent company.

The equity research firm, Edelweiss however last year commented: “After the proposed deal the listed entity will be left with the engineering procurement construction (EPC) business, the Mumbai metro and Delhi distribution businesses all which have limited growth visibility.”

Besides, Reliance Infrastructure few months back announced its intention to exit cement, road and other non-core businesses. This, coupled with the PSP deal points to the company’s increasing focus on the defence business. The company is expected to get Rs.8000 crore to Rs.9000 crore from its 11 roads. Analysts believe the firm is transitioning itself from a services-based entity to a manufacturing entity focusing on defence. 

According to an Economic Times news briefing: These days, the ADA Group boss, Anil Ambani spends more than 70% of his working hours on what is seen as a sunrise sector for Indian industry. In the past year, he visited at least two global defence equipment manufacturers every month and signed partnerships with several of them. In between, from Paris to Dubai, Moscow and Abu Dhabi, he hasn't missed any major defence and aerospace shows.

A country that spends more than $40 billion every year in defence, India is still largely dependent on imports to meet military requirements.

The government's Make in India campaign to boost domestic manufacturing has opened up opportunities for Ambani's Reliance Infrastructure, but he will also have to compete with more established players like the Mahindra and Tata groups and Larsen & Toubro. 

Under its Reliance Defence unit, Reliance Infra floated a cluster of companies and made a host of high-profile hiring, from the former India head of US defence contractor Lockheed Martin to top-ranked retired officers of the armed forces. It is seeking to rapidly set up manufacturing infrastructure — primarily two defence parks to make aircraft to armoured vehicles and air defence systems, and a shipyard on the east coast. 

In another significant development, The Economic Times today wrote: "Global headwinds are likely to keep the domestic stock market volatile, but cement is one sector which analysts feel could outperform the broader market in the near term supported by improvement in demand, capacity expansion as well as better realisation. 

In February this year, Reliance Infrastructure, sold its cement business to Birla Corp. The deal valued 5.08 mtpa cement business at Rs.4800 crore, at USD 140 per tonne.

Reliance Infra said the proceeds from the sale will be utilised for debt reduction. Total debt on the books of Reliance Infra stands at around Rs.20000-25000 crore. The deal is EPS accretive for shareholders, according to the analysts.

After this deal is through, Reliance Infrastructure will be able to focus on its core business of infrastructure, while the debt in the cement subsidiary will be transferred to the acquirer -- Reliance Infra’s highly leveraged balance sheet will get some relief.

Last month Reliance Infrastructure brought in Braj Kishore from SBI Life to Head Corporate Communication fot taking the perception of Reliance Infrastructure to newer heights through optimally harnessing various communication tools – traditional and new age.

Meanwhile, Reliance Capital, Reliance Industries, Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Power along with 70 other stocks have seen no change in their market lot size for derivative contracts; according to a recent NSE filing.

Therefore, buy the shares of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd at Rs.546.35, for a short term target of Rs.600-plus. SL- Rs.537.

Idea Cellular Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.117

Target: 127; SL: Rs.114.60.

Period: 15 - 20 days. 

Note: The scrip of Idea Cellular was recommended to the Premium Group members today at Rs.117. The stock already made an intra-day high of Rs.118.40.

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.550.20

The Union budget 2016-17,  allocated a huge amount for public investment into infrastructure. 

The budgetary outlay is around Rs.2.21 trillion in infrastructure. The government did this while maintaining the fiscal deficit to ensure that government bond yields come down and the borrowing rate of the government is within manageable limits.

India's infrastructure output grew an annual 5.7 percent in February, its fastest pace in at least 13 months, mainly driven by a surge in production of cement and fertilizers, government data showed on Thursday.

Infrastructure accounts for nearly 38 percent of India's industrial output.


Cement production last month was up 13.5 percent from a year earlier. Fertilizer output grew an annual 16.3 percent, the data showed.

European cement manufacturers with a presence in India are likely to benefit if the Indian government's plans to ramp up infrastructure spending come to fruition in the next 12-18 months, says Moody's Investors Service today in a new report. India's 2016 Union Budget, announced on 29 February, contained plans to hike public infrastructure spending, especially on roads, which could revive stagnant cement demand in the country.

According to the Indian government's 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) investment in infrastructure should increase from 7.6% of GDP in 2014 to 9% in 2017. However, cement demand for government-funded projects has been weak in the last four years with many construction schemes delayed or put on hold. As a result, while infrastructure investment will be a key growth driver, the timing of such investment remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, there were media reports in February, 2016, that Birla Corp. Ltd is set to buy the cement assets of Anil Ambani-controlled Reliance Infrastructure Ltd for about Rs.5,000 crore. In November, 2015, Reliance Infrastructure told stock exchanges that it will sell its 5.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) cement business and related assets through a formal process.

The company said that it had shortlisted seven bidders for the asset.


Private equity firms Carlyle Group, Blackstone Group and Baring Private Equity Asia, and cement companies JSW Cement, JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd, Birla Corp.and Chinese cement maker China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd were the shortlisted bidders, Mint reported 4 December.

Reliance Cement’s capacity is spread across four states: an integrated unit in Madhya Pradesh and grinding units in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Maharashtra.

Reliance Infrastructure is looking to sell the cement and roads businesses to focus on its new defence business, and the company is keen to reduce debt that has been incurred on account of these businesses.

Also, the company may sell its entire road operation in the next 45 days, according to a CNBC TV report.

In another significant development, in one of the biggest joint ventures between an Indian Company with any original equipment manufacturer (OEM), Reliance Defence Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd and Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd have decided to set up a joint venture company in India in the highly specialized areas of Air to Air Missiles, Air Defence Systems and Large Aerostats.

The Joint Venture will provide big thrust into the field of indigenous production and development of High Precision and state of the art Weapon Systems in India. The Strategic Partnership with technology power house and one of the world leaders in Defence Technologies, Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd of Israel will mark the entry of Reliance Defence in the complex field of Air to Air Missiles and Air Defence Systems manufacturing in India.

Reliance Rafael joint venture will have 51% holding from Reliance Defence and 49% by Rafael as per the current guidelines of the Government of India. The joint venture company will be located at Pithampur, Indore in the state of Madhya Pradesh and will generate more than 3000 highly skilled jobs. The project will have an initial capital outlay of more than INR 1,300 crore, without including the cost of technology.

Rafael has already provided large aerostat systems to the Indian Air Force for meeting its surveillance, reconnaissance, communication and intelligence needs.

The two companies, through the Joint Venture, will offer the entire range of products in these fields to the Indian Armed Forces. Rafael is also willing to offer solutions through the joint venture company even for the ongoing "Buy Global" programs where it is currently competing, in line with "Make in India" initiatives of the Indian Government.

Based on the current requirements, the joint venture company will address multiple Programs valued at more than INR 65,000 crore over next ten years.

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd made a peak of Rs.2,425 in January 2008, hence it has a long way to go from the CMP of Rs.550.20. Once known as momentum counter, Reliance Infrastructure is now showing a fresh lease of life as it approaches the support zone of Rs.547 - 556.

Therefore, buy the shares of the company at Rs.550.20 for a short term target of Rs.760. SL - Rs. 539.

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Coal India Ltd: Buy
CMP: Rs.281.30

Edelweiss's research report on Coal India:

We met senior management of Coal India (CIL) to know more about the steps the company is taking to tackle the impending wage hike and meet its sales target, among other things. CIL is confident of mitigating effects of the impending wage hike and increase in clean energy cess. Further, it has maintained its production target of 598mn tonnes for FY17. CIL is targeting to reduce costs by 5% every year primarily through manpower cost rationalisation and enhancing operating and supply chain efficiencies. Our assumptions remain unchanged. We maintain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR376 (16x FY18E PE). 

We believe that the company would be able to maintain its margins in FY17E led by pass through of wage hikes and volume growth. We keep our assumptions unchanged for FY17E and FY18E. The stock is trading at 12.0x and 12.5x FY17E and FY18E EPS, respectively. Maintain 'BUY/SO' with target price of INR376.

Additional inputs from Live Mint: It’s worth noting that CIL declared an interim dividend for FY16 worth Rs.27.40 per share recently.

Nevertheless, what offers some hope is that demand from the power sector could improve as we enter the summer season. That in turn is likely to boost coal demand. “Central Electricity Authority data indicates 13-15GW (gigawatts) of annual power capacity addition based on domestic coal in FY17-19 period, which alone can drive 9-10% coal demand growth,” points out JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd.

And then, about 50% of current coal imports is to offset the shortfall in domestic production, added the brokerage firm. “Barring seasonal anomalies we believe coal demand will keep growing structurally,” JM Financial said in a report. Needless to say, if that pans out, CIL will benefit.

Currently, one CIL share trades at about 11 times estimated earnings for FY17. While valuations seem to be factoring in most of the negatives, what are the triggers?

With dividend now behind us and a forthcoming wage hike in July, focus would shift to FSA (fuel supply agreement) volumes price hikes, said Bhaskar Basu of Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd. “While there is uncertainty around price hikes, we believe market is already factoring in no price hikes,” points out a Jefferies report on 3 April.

Accordingly, potential price hikes and news flow surrounding that will act as a trigger from a near-term perspective.

Having said that, slower-than-expected volume growth and lack of price hikes will pose downside risks to earnings estimates.

Vedanta Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.87

DO YOU KNOW?

Reliance Communications Ltd (RCOM) has entered into active infra sharing with 4G entrant Jio, which allows RCOM to offer 4G services without investing much capex. RCOM's active sharing limits its (RCOM, the anchor tenant) demand for additional towers in the near to medium term.

This will save infra - cost of Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.50.95) and will be EBIDTA positive.  

Also, the RCOM has chosen to offer 4G services, by leveraging (Mukesh Ambani's) Reliance Jio’s 4G network. This is the key point which will give RCOM the much needed ammunition, to rationalize its price (call tariff and data) against the price offered by Reliance Jio and other players; giving it some advantage.

Moreover, if RCOM asks for a premium from Jio for trading in 800 spectrum-band, then it can help it ward off some of the debts.

Besides, the Union Cabinet has cleared liberalisation of spectrum - allocated without auction to telecom companies - at Trai recommended price with the balance being collected after deriving market rate through bidding.

A liberalised spectrum allows telecom operators to use any technology to deliver mobile services like 3G and 4G. Besides, they will be able to introduce new technologies and share and trade it with other operators for its efficient use.

The Cabinet decision taken, will enable Reliance Communications   (RCom) to liberalise its spectrum in four telecom circles, where auction determined price is not available, for Rs.1,300 crore. A liberalised spectrum allows telecom operators to use any technology to deliver mobile services like 3G and 4G. Besides, they will be able to introduce new technologies and share and trade it with other operators for its efficient use.

Therefore, in any case the target for Reliance Communications Ltd (Book Value: Rs.144.13; Market Cap of Rs.12681.25 Cr), stays at Rs.71, in the short term.

McLeod Russell Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.194

Target: Rs.210

SL: Rs.187.

Inpoll-bound West Bengal, closure of multiple tea gardens thanks to what industry insiders claim to be due to rising labour wages, is likely to affect annual tea production this year. The Western India Tea Dealers Association (WITDA) claimed that a crop shortfall of around 50 million kg is likely by March 2017 if the crisis continues.

As for impact on prices, the WITDA said that the situation would be more clear after June.

India produces around 1,250 million kg of tea, of which around 200 million kg is exported. Of this Dooars produces around 325 million kg, the gardens in southern India produce around 320-330 million kg and the rest is by Assam. As such small tea growers across India produce nearly 350 millon kg of tea. Labour cost is about 60 per cent of the cost of production of tea.

WITDA claimed that as the reputed Duncans Goenka Group shut down seven of its tea gardens in North Bengal, close to 25,000 people became unemployed. WITDA president Piyush Desai who is also the chairman of Wagh Bakri Group said that tea garden owners are reeling under the rising labour wages. "Tea industry is one of the largest employers after the Indian Railways, and it employs one of the largest women workforce. However, as cost of labour rises, tea gardens are increasingly finding it unviable to continue with operations. Only recently, the renowned Duncans Group under GP Goenka closed down seven of its tea gardens."

While tea prices have been increased at the rate of 3-4 per cent per annum on an average, wages have moved up from Rs 112.50 in April 2014 to Rs 122.50 as on April 2015, and is scheduled to go up to Rs 132.50 from this month. This is almost a 40 per cent increase in three years.

The tea industry on the whole employs 1.1 million people and thus cannot be ignored politically. Rising of wages has been a direct corollary.

Between 2002 to 2007, 17 tea gardens shut down in Dooars and at least 1,200 deaths were reported in the area.

The situation is comparatively better in Darjeeling (which fetches higher prices of Rs 400-500 per kg and 70 per cent of it is exported), however, other gardens in West Bengal get an average price of around Rs 120-140 per kg, as compared to Rs 160-170 per kg. In Assam, Desai claimed while the profits have come down, not many tea gardens have closed down.

Desai said, "These are trying times for the industry. Prices fetched in the market are almost stagnant. Add to that, the PF, annual leave, sick leave, festival leave, bonus, housing, medical expenses, rations and basic protective gears like chappal, umbrella and blanket of the garden workers that has to be covered for."

Higher tea prices, as is expected, WITDA said, will also impact the livelihood of lakhs of small time tea vendors who survive selling prepared tea in cups. It feels that the need of the hour is a concerted action taken by the respective state government and the Centre to work out ways to resolve issues so that the tea industry.

Courtesy: Businesses Standard

Do you know?

Reliance Communications, controlled by billionare Anil Ambani, has entered a 90-day exclusivity period for talks to combine its mobile phone services business with smaller rival Aircel.

The Reliance mobile phone business is India's fourth-biggest by number of customers, while Aircel, majority owned by Malaysia's Maxis Communications, ranks fifth.

Combined, the duo could overtake Vodafone's Indian business, the No. 2 by subscriber numbers.

Meanwhile, in January 2016, RCom said that it would share and pool its 800MHz spectrum with Reliance Jio in 17 regions. Rcom has future plans to share 800MHz spectrum in the remaining five circles. Spectrum sharing will give Rcom access to a wider band of spectrum and Jio's network to provide faster 4G data services and provide capex and operating costs savings.

RCom and Reliance Jio signed reciprocal infrastructure agreements during FY14-15 to share Rcom's 43,000 towers, 120,000km of inter-city fibre, and 70,000km intra-city fibre network for the next 17-20 years. Under the agreements, Rcom also has access to existing and future towers and fibre assets of Reliance Jio.

The ratings firm reckons that RCom's acquisition of Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd (SSTL), the Indian mobile subsidiary of Russia's Sistema JSFC, in an all-stock deal is credit neutral for Rcom, at least in the short term. RCom will benefit from additional nine million subscribers and Rs 15bn revenue and also will be able to extend the life of its 800MHz spectrum in eight Indian circles.

According to Fitch Ratings, ownership of a pan-India spectrum in 800MHz/850MHz and its ability to offer faster 4G data extent.es could help Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.50.30), fend off the competition, to some extent.

Meanwhile, Anil Ambani-owned Reliance Communications (RCom) Ltd's, telecom towers and related infrastructure (45,000-strong tower assets) could have a hidden networth of around  at Rs 21,500 crore, according to some market reports.

Which means, Reliance Communication's consolidated debt of Rs.39,895 crore as of September, 2015, should actually be around of Rs.18, 395 Cr.

In another significant development, the telecoms unit of Reliance Industries, controlled by India's richest man Mukesh Ambani, is preparing to launch the nation's biggest 4G broadband network within the next couple of weeks.

If you remember, Reliance had launched it 4G LTE services, Reliance Jio, back in December only to its employees, as well as some Android powered smartphones, LYF series. Promises were also made about full rollout of services to customers by April 2016 and it looks like Reliance is on track.

Calling Jio the world's largest startup, Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani on Wednesday said the roll-out of its 4G services will lift India from a mobile Internet ranking of 150th to the top 10 slot. Speaking at the Ficci-Frames media and entertainment conclave in Mumbai, Ambani said Relaince Jio has four strategies: Expand country's coverage from 15-20 percent now to 70 percent, give broadband speed that is 40-80 times faster, increase data availability and make the services affordable.

Ambani, who is betting big on the latest venture of the refining-to-retail group with an initial investment of over Rs. 150,000 crores, said Jio will not be a mere telecom network but bring to its customers an entire ecosystem to allow a "Digital Life" to the fullest.

This ecosystem will comprise devices, broadband network, powerful applications and offerings such as live music, sports, live and catchup TV, movies and events, he said. "Jio is not just about technical brute force. It is about doing things in a smart, simple and secure way."

Mr.Mukesh Ambani said, "Currently the data consumption for an average Indian is 0.15 GB per annum. Jio’s network is engineered to provide a capacity of over 10 GB per user— that is nearly 100 times more than what he/she is using today.” He mentioned affordability as a key factor to make India digitally active.

This will be a very interesting event to watch, as the brothers work jointly to outbid / outsmart the other major players in the sector: Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular.

Therefore, accumulate Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.50.30), without fail: T - Rs.76, SL - Rs.47, Period - short term (60 days).