Market Pulse

The Key benchmark indices are trading in the Green during the morning trade. At 11.16 am, the Sensex was seen at 33,905.22 up 92.96 points or 0.27%. The Nifty was trading at 10,477.75 up 35.55 points or 0.34%.

Among secondary barometers, the BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.61%. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 1.06%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The broad market depicted strength. There were more than three gainers against every loser on BSE. 1,798 shares rose and 563 shares fell. A total of 87 shares were unchanged.

Metal shares were in demand. Hindustan Copper (up 3.85%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 2.53%), JSW Steel (up 2.31%), Vedanta (up 1.83%), Steel Authority of India (up 1.80%), NMDC (up 1.48%), Hindalco Industries (up 1.42%), National Aluminium Company (up 1.23%), Hindustan Zinc (up 1.18%) and Tata Steel (up 0.85%), edged higher. Bhushan Steel was down 0.45%.

Meanwhile, copper price edged lower in the global commodities markets. High Grade Copper for March 2018 delivery was currently down 0.47% at $3.2625 per pound on the COMEX.

Power generation stocks were in demand. Adani Power (up 1.85%), NHPC (up 1.26%), JSW Energy (up 1.17%), Jaiprakash Power Ventures (up 1.05%), Tata Power (up 0.70%), Torrent Power (up 0.68%), CESC (up 0.50%), Reliance Infrastructure (up 0.29%), NTPC (up 0.28%) and GMR Infrastructure (up 0.23%), edged higher. Reliance Power was down 2.28%.

State-run Coal India was up 0.18%. State-run Power Grid Corporation of India was up 0.80%.

Yash Papers jumped 10.61% after the company said that the commercial production of tableware unit (phase - 1) of the company started from 2 January 2018. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 2 January 2018.

Overseas, most Asian shares were trading higher, tracking positive cues from US market. Japanese market was shut.

US stocks jumped overnight, with major indexes rallying to record levels in a broad rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.5%.

Today's Calls:

#Buy State Bank of India Ltd at around Rs.305, for short term targets of Rs.309--310. With the Indian Banking system bearing the brunt of huge NPAs, thanks to loan defaulters, the country's largest lender State Bank of India collected Rs 1,771 crore during April- November 2017 as penalty from customers who couldn't maintain a minimum monthly average  balance (MAB) in their accounts. The money thus collected as penalty charges is more than the bank’s July-September quarter net profit of Rs 1,581.55 crore and nearly half of the Rs 3,586 crore it earned as net profit April-September, reported The Indian Express. In October last year, the government of India had announced a Rs.2.1 lakh crore capital infusion plan for state-owned banks, of which Rs.1.35 lakh crore was to be raised through bonds.

#Those who are holding the shares of Dena Bank Ltd (Rs.25.50) can continue to hold with a SL of Rs.24.60. There was recent media report that the government is likely to immediately infuse about Rs 10,000 crore in six state-run lenders, including United Bank of India, Dena Bank and Bank of Maharashtra, over the next few weeks, a finance ministry official said. I am expecting the shares of PSB to rise, after the government of India passed the new Insolvency Code.

#Those who are holding the shares of Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd can continue to do the same with a SL at Rs.61.40. I feel most of the investors have not understood the theory that HDIL has less debt and more land bank that Unitech Ltd or DLF Ltd, in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Moreover, its Face Value is Rs.10, unlike Rs.2 (in case of Unitech Ltd and DLF Ltd). Therefore, I feel it has a better chance of appreciation than the Unitech Ltd in the short term.

#The Shares of MBL Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.27) is preparing for the next round of upmove after

Photo: The Economic Times

changes took place in the Insolvency Code. Whether it is the promoter or a good strategic investor someone will soon take charge of the company. MBL Infrstructure Ltd has a good order book position -- only problem is the debt of Rs.1700 crore. The government of India, said last week, that loan defaulting promoters can take part in the bidding process provided they clear all the dues. The promoters of MBL Infrastructure Ltd has already expressed their desire to bring in Rs.120 crore and is in discussion with the lenders. I am sure soon, a positive outcome for the shareholders will come. Add the scrip in every market decline and keep holding.

#A Buy on Jet Airways Ltd was given at around Rs.Rs.522-534 in April last year (2017). The scrip made an intraday high of Rs.845 today, which is also its 8-year high. The investors could do well to book at least 85% of profits and wait for dips to re-enter.

#Those who are holding the shares of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd from around Rs.539 can book partial profit again  at Rs.572 and hold the rest with a SL at Rs.546. The next target for the scrip is Rs.593.

#Those who are holding the shares of Reliance Communications Ltd from Rs.12 onward, can book out complete profits at around Rs.31-32 and wait for the scrip to stabilize before thinking of fresh entry. I recommended the share of RCom to some of my BMA Wealth Creator Ltd's clients at above Rs.12.

#The long term investors who are still holding the shares of Orchid Pharma Ltd (Rs. 20.10), formerly Orchid Chemical and Pharmaceuticals Ltd, should book 15% of profits and hold the rest with a SL at Rs.17. 

~~ with inputs from  Capital Market - Live News...

Market Pulse

A bout of volatility was witnessed as key benchmark indices bounced back after hitting fresh intraday low in morning trade. At 11.13 IST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was seen trading at 33,843.01 up 30.26 points or 0.09%, while Nifty was seen at  10,447.95 up 12.40 points or 0.12%

Among secondary barometers, the BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.65%. The BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.74%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The broad market depicted weakness. There were more than two losers against every gainer on BSE. 1,644 shares fell and 735 shares rose. A total of 91 shares were unchanged. Breadth was strong in early trade.

Metal shares declined. Hindustan Copper (down 2.35%), Steel Authority of India (down 2.21%), Jindal Steel & Power (down 2.18%), Bhushan Steel (down 2.16%), Vedanta (down 1.56%), JSW Steel (down 0.92%), Tata Steel (down 0.91%), National Aluminium Company (down 0.82%), Hindalco Industries (down 0.55%) and Hindustan Zinc (down 0.47%), edged lower. NMDC was up 0.71%.

Meanwhile, copper price edged lower in the global commodities markets. High Grade Copper for March 2018 delivery was currently down 0.64% at $3.2795 per pound on the COMEX.

Cement shares declined. ACC (down 0.41%), Ambuja Cements (down 0.13%) and UltraTech Cement (down 0.08%), edged lower.

Grasim Industries was down 0.93%. Grasim has exposure to cement sector through its holding in UltraTech Cement.

Motorcycle major Bajaj Auto gained 0.35% to Rs 3304.95 after total sales rose 30% to 2.92 lakh units in December 2017 over December 2016. Domestic sales rose 25% to 1.49 lakh units in December 2017 over December 2016. Exports rose 35% to 1.43 lakh units in December 2017 over December 2016. The announcement was made during market hours today, 2 January 2018.

Overseas, Asian shares were trading higher. Market in Japan is closed for holiday. US markets was shut yesterday, 1 January 2018, on account of New Year's Day.

Today's Calls:

#The market it seems will trade range bound till fresh triggers come. As long as the Nifty holds the 10400-10200 ranges the BULLS will not have to worry much. The broader market went in for small correction today, after a whirlwind rally during the last few weeks. India's fundamentals are moving towards better from worse and I believe, the rally will now be more seen in shares which have a story to tell, especially from those beaten down A and B groups. 

#Those who are holding the shares of Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd (HDIL; CMP: Rs.62.50) can continue to add on declines due to the inherent fundamentals in the counter. The company has a HDIL has a market cap is only Rs.2,715.52 crore, as against its land holding of 200.47 Million Sq. Ft as of September 30, 2016. It boasts of being the Largest Land Bank Owner in Mumbai Metropolitan Region, which it can capitalize to cut its debt. JP Morgan noted HDIL’s balance sheet cost of land is at 50-70%  lower than market value. In November, 2017, there were media reports that the shareholders of HDIL had approved the issue of up to 2 crore warrants, convertible into equivalent number of equity Shares of Rs.10 each to Sarang Wadhawan. The issue is to be carried out in one or more tranches. The issue had been approved by the board of the company in an earlier meeting on November 14. The management intends to use the proceeds of the preferential issue of the warrants for long-term working capital purposes. The warrant issue increases the number of shares held to 45.4 crore, an increase of 4.6%. It expects margins of the company to be above 30% even under affordable housing price points.
In the November, 2017, another positive news came that Andhra Bank had withdrawn a plea against it in the National Company Law Tribunal. On October 30, Andhra Bank had filed an insolvency petition against city-based realtor on failure to repay Rs.55 crore invested by the bank in the HDIL's non-convertible debentures, as per media report. The company said that the aforementioned plea stands withdrawn as it has reached a settlement with the lender and has made part payment of its balance dues, it said in the BSE filing. I still hold the target of Rs.77-84-92-97-121  for the scrip. There could be some minor correction as the scrip of HDIL is a little overbought on the daily chart.

#Those who are holding the shares of Reliance Naval and Engineering Ltd (CMP: Rs.63; Intraday high: Rs.72.65) can book some profits and hold the rest with a SL at Rs.61.50. This scrip has given wonderful returns to  the short term shareholders. Reliance Naval and Engineering Ltd recommended to the Premium Members and also in this Free Blog closed with a gain of 32.28% yesterday.

#Most analysts expect the government to focus on increasing government expenditure on rural economy as well as introduce a measure to kick-start investment cycle in the economy. I have taken some shares of Genera Agri Corp Ltd (BSE Code: 590133; GENERAAGRI; Group XT) pivoted on this theory. I am expecting the scrip to touch Rs.35-41 in the short to medium. However, this is a high-risk-high-gain game. The stock has fallen from around Rs.220-plus in 2013-14 to the CMP of Rs.9.10 and therefore has a much chance of appreciation in this BULL MARKET RALLY.

#Those who are holding the shares of Suzlon Energy Ltd (Rs.15.70) from Rs.13.60, can continue to hold with a SL at Rs.15. This, the government is likely to give a push in the renewal energy sector. The scrip is likely to touch Rs.17-19, in the pre-budget rally.

#Those who are holding the shares of MBL Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.26.80), can continue to add on declines, as the government of India is likely to bring out a change in the existing Bankruptcy and Insolvancy act, which will make the promoters of the company eligible to bid. The medium term target for the scrip is Rs.110-plus. The stock has already risen from the recommended price of Rs.24.40. It will give you multibagger returns going forward. So, risk taking investors can accumulate the scrip on all declines.

#Unitech Ltd (Rs.11.15) made an intraday high of Rs.12.25 today. Those who are holding the shares of the company from Rs.5, can book complete profits and wait for a close above Rs.12.20, for fresh entry. This company like HDIL also has huge land bank scattered across India, unlike the former whose land bank is concentrated mostly in Mumbai Metropolitan Region.

#Buy the shares of Reliance Industries Ltd at around Rs.910-911, for intra-day targets of Rs.915-920. For the short term delivery based buying, the targets could be Rs.945-951. Oil prices posted their strongest opening to a year since 2014 on Tuesday, with crude rising to mid-2015 highs amid large anti-government rallies in Iran and ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC and Russia.

#Buy the shares of Punjab National Bank Ltd at around Rs.166-167, for short term target of Rs.177-180. According to the Economic Times, 2 January, 2018, North Block will soon announce a reforms road map for PSBs, tying performance parameters to funds the lenders would receive as part of recap plan. Moreover, putting branch rationalisation plan on fast track, Punjab National Bank has placed 300 branches under watch and asked them to either shape up within a year or face closure or merger.

#The government of India, especially the likes of Sanju Verma, who shifted to the BJP from the AAP (don't know her next destination, as this fickle lady keeps on changing her location...LOL), after trying her luck in other sectors too, like HDFC Bank, is seen to tom-tom about the all time high of the Indian bourses.
But with very little retail participation and not much improvement in the number of demat account holders, I don't think this in any case reflects "The Bharat of Villages and Towns".
It is pertinent to mention here that only around 2% of Indians hold Demat accounts and the Narendra Modi Government did very little during their tenure of more than 36 months to beef up the sentiments of Indian Capital Markets. 

I am increasing the subscription charge of my Premium Services to Rs.18,000 per year from 16th January, 2017. So, rush for further details on the same at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s@gmail.com.

~~with inputs from Capital Market - Live News

Market Pulse

The stock market continued to trade with small gains in afternoon trade. The BSE Sensex is now trading at 33,878.69 up 41.95 points or  0.12%, while the NSE Nifty is now seen at 10,473.55 up 10.35 points or 0.10%.

The market swung between gains and losses near the flat line in early trade. The Sensex and Nifty, both, hit record high at the onset of the session. Stocks soon slipped into the red and traded with small losses in morning trade. Indices turned positive in mid-morning trade and traded with small gains so far.

Among secondary indices, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.47%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index gained 1%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. On the BSE, 1,652 shares rose and 893 shares fell. A total of 174 shares were unchanged.

IT stocks were mixed. Wipro (up 0.79%), Infosys (up 0.74%) and HCL Technologies (up 0.29%) gained. Persistent Systems (down 0.69%), Tech Mahindra (down 0.32%) and TCS (down 0.26%) dropped.

Metal and mining stocks nudged higher. National Aluminium Company (up 4.39%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 3.81%), Steel Authority of India (up 1.98%), Hindalco Industries (up 1.87%), Hindustan Zinc (up 0.61%), Hindustan Copper (up 0.49%), JSW Steel (up 0.53%) and Vedanta (up 0.17%) gained. Tata Steel (down 1.06%) and NMDC (down 0.26%) edged lower.

Strides Shasun rose 2.7% at Rs 816.75 after the company said that its wholly owned Singapore subsidiary has entered into definitive agreements with Trinity Pharma, South Africa (Trinity) for acquisition of controlling stake in Trinity. Under the terms of the agreement, Strides Pharma Asia, Singapore will acquire 55% stake in Trinity for a cash consideration of South African Rand 55 million (approximately Rs 27.50 crore).

The current management will stay as minority partner and will continue to run the business under the supervision of Strides. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions including approval from the South African regulatory authority, Transaction Regulation Panel and expected to close on or before 5 January 2018. The announcement was made during trading hours today, 20 December 2017.

Meanwhile, the Companies (Amendment) Bill, 2017 which seeks to bring about major changes in the Companies Act, 2013, was passed by the Rajya Sabha yesterday, 19 December 2017 by a voice vote. The bill, which was adopted by the Lok Sabha in July, will now have to receive the assent of the President to become law. The amendment seeks to strengthen corporate governance standards, initiate strict action against defaulting companies and help improve ease of doing business in the country.

Overseas, Asian stocks dropped after Senate passed Republican tax bill in 51-48 vote sending the tax cut package back to the House of Representatives for a final vote later in the day.

US stocks ended with modest losses yesterday, 19 December 2017, pulling back from all-time highs. Stocks remained lower as the House of Representatives, as expected, passed tax legislation that would slash corporate rates but will have to vote again today because the current draft doesn't comply with Senate rules.

Today's Calls:

#MBL Infrastructure Ltd today hit the Buyer Freeze in the morning trade, at Rs.25.45 in the NSE. I am expecting itss price to go above Rs.110, within a few months.  Hence keep adding as much as you can in all intraday dips. This is a multibagger stock from my arsenal and hence don't miss it.

#Suzlon Energy Ltd was recommended a buy at around Rs.13.60 in this blog, a couple of days back today toched Rs.14.10. You should keep a stop loss at Rs.13.50 and keep holding or accumulating in intra-day dips. 

#The stock of Reliance Communications Ltd which was recommended only a couple of days back to some of my clients at around Rs.12, today touched Rs.18,45 in the NSE, up more than 37% from yesterday's closing pricxe. I am suggesting all to book some profits and again enter at appropriate time. This is what happens if you join my Premium Service -- you get Jackpots.

#The stock of Orchid Pharma Ltd (formerly Orchid Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd) made an intraday high of Rs.19.85 today. The non-risk taking investors should exit the scrip near the buy price. However, those who wants to apply high-risk-high-gain strategy can hold the counter with a strict SL of Rs.18.60. The short term targets could be Rs.22-23.

#I am looking for someone or a business concern who can invest around Rs.5-10 lakhs (or more if possible) in a well Researched Scrip. We would hold it for one year (no trading in the account only pure delivery based holding - this minimizes lot of risks) or less or more, depending upon the prevailing situations. The profits could be shared in the ratio of 75:25 between you and my firm. The returns could be mind-boggling and the risks will be minimum as there will be very little trading and exit will be done at stop losses; further minimizing the risks associated with too much volatility with the mid and small caps. 
Say if we get Rs.50 lakhs on an investment of Rs.10 lakhs then the profit to be shared will be Rs.10 lakhs only. So, your total investable capital becomes Rs.40 lakhs, and that too with minimum (read almost zero) trading. This money could be further invested in another strong delivery based counter, and the process could continue. 
Those who have lost money earlier can try this new formula with fresh funds at their disposals. This new method hereto  is going fine with most of my new clients. If anyone is interested please do send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s@gmail.com. 

~~ with inputs from Capital Market - Live News...

Market Pulse

The stock market extended intraday slide in mid-morning trade. After a positive start, key indices traded within a narrow range around the flat line till morning trade. Investors digested the US Federal Reserve's decision of raising interest rates for the third time this year, underlining the confidence that the United States remains on solid footing.

Higher interest rates in the US may drain liquidity from the emerging markets, including India, and redirect it to developed economies.

The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.43%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.65%. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.

The breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak. On the BSE, 1,448 shares declined and 831 shares rose. A total of 116 shares were unchanged.

Metal and mining stocks declined. SAIL (down 2.92%), Jindal Steel & Power (down 0.9%), NMDC (down 0.58%), Vedanta (down 0.58%), Hindustan Copper (down 0.49%), JSW Steel (down 0.25%) and Hindustan Zinc (down 0.12%) edged lower. Nalco (up 0.2%) and Hindalco Industries (up 0.02%) edged higher.

Tata Steel fell 0.54%. The company said that a meeting of its board of directors will be held on 18 December 2017 and will conclude on 19 December 2017, to consider a proposal for raising of funds by issue of equity shares or other securities including through qualified institutions placement, rights issue, preferential issue or through any other permissible mode or a combination thereof, subject to such regulatory/statutory approvals as may be required, including approval of shareholders of the company, if applicable. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 13 December 2017.

On the macro front, the government will announce inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for November at 12:00 IST today, 14 December 2017. Wholesale prices rose 3.59% year-on-year in October, following a 2.6% increase in September.

Among other news, the second phase of polling in Gujarat is underway today, 14 December 2017 in 93 assembly constituencies. Counting of votes will take place on 18 December 2017. Gujarat recorded a polling of 68% in the first phase of assembly elections for 89 assembly constituencies held on 9 December 2017. The Gujarat assembly has 182 seats.

Overseas, Asian stocks were mixed. US stocks rose yesterday, 13 December 2017, with the Dow posting a record closing, after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. Investors also digested news of Congressional leaders reaching a tentative agreement on a tax overhaul plan.

The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point after the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting yesterday, 13 December 2017, in a move that was widely expected by markets. That increased the central bank's target range to between 1.25% and 1.5%. The Fed also raised its GDP forecast from 2.1% to 2.5%. Its inflation forecast was raised from 1.6% to 1.7%.

In Europe, a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled today, 14 December 2017, to announce its interest rate decision. The ECB held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0% on 26 October, as widely expected, and decided to reduce its quantitative easing programme to a monthly pace of €30 billion from January with the option of extending it in September 2018.

Today's Calls:

#In view of the uncertainty regarding Gujarat elections, I suggest you to EXIT all the Gujarat based companies, including my earlier recommended Suzlon Energy Ltd at the CMP of around Rs.13.45.

#The Stock of HDIL is looking good at the CMP of Rs.52.80. You can buy for the short term targets of Rs.55-56, keeping a Strict SL of Rs.51. HDIL has recently sought shareholders approval to issue up to 2 crore warrants on preferential basis to promoter Sarang Wadhawan in order to infuse long term capital into the company. The proceeds of the preferential issue of warrants will be utilised by the company to consolidate and infuse long term working capital.

#Those who are holding the shares of MBL Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.23.40) can continue to add on every decline, as the  company is almost through with the NCLT proceedings; according to some unconfirmed sources. It has a healthy  order book of around Rs.7000 crore against a debt of Rs.1700 crore. The promoter is  likely to bring in Rs.120 crore for an amicable settlement with the lenders. I am looking for targets of Rs.100 - plus (one hundred) in the next 6 to 9 months time frame. However, put a SL at Rs.21.60, if the the things do not proceed as expected. This could be the stock of FY19. Surprisingly, the stock of MBL Infrastructure Ltd has been placed in the T-group, when there is no volume in the counter. Hope the stock exchanges would soon review their decision, considering the current positive developments, surrounding the company.

~~ with inputs from Capital Market - Live New

Today's Call

1. Buy Rolta India Ltd at Rs.59.10-59.30, T: Rs.72, SL: Rs.56. Rolta Ltd will be one of the biggest

beneficiaries of the BJP win. Defence industry was initially run by a monopoly and it was difficult to take a product to people who were not willing to give something new a try.

However currently, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Rolta India Ltd and Tata are the major suppliers of defence products. In 2015, the BEL-Rolta India consortium bagged the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) development agency order for the Battlefield Management System (BMS) project, worth over Rs.50,000 crore. BMS is an awareness and visualisation system that aims to optimise the effectiveness of tactical units.

To elaborate, the NDA government's “Make in India” policy got a boost when two Indian consortia were selected for the $5.95 billion. Battlefield Management System (BMS) contract for integrating all surveillance resources available at the battalion or regiment level, including from locally launched UAVs and ground sensors. Fourteen contenders had formed four consortia to vie for this prestigious contract.

The two selected – one comprising Tata Power Strategic Engineering Division (SED) and L&T, and the other, Rolta India and the DPSU, Bharat Electricals Ltd (BEL) – will each develop four BMS prototypes for mountain, jungle, plains and desert operations. The BMS will pinpoint the locations of Indian and enemy troops and key weapons platforms as well as facilitate terrain analysis to achieve improved situational awareness.

Rolta India Limited (Rolta), a leading provider of innovative IP-led IT solutions for many vertical segments, including Defence and Security, announced unaudited financial results for quarter ended December 31, 2016 (Q3 FY -17) last month.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS:

• Consolidated Revenue for Q3 FY-17 at Rs. 911.23cr (Rs. 9.11 Billion) against Rs. 736.95 cr (Rs. 7.37 Billion) in Q2 FY-17, registering a growth of 23.6 % Q-o-Q.
• Consolidated EBITDA for Q3 FY-17 at Rs. 254.75 cr (Rs. 2.55 Billion) against Rs. 217.12 cr (Rs. 2.17 Billion) in Q2 FY-17, registering a growth of 17.3% Q-o-Q.
• Consolidated profit after tax for Q3 FY-17 at Rs. 36.94 cr (Rs. 3.69 Billion) against Rs. 54.30 cr (Rs. 5.43 Billion) in Q2 FY-17, registering a decline of 32.0% Q-o-Q.
• Foreign Exchange loss for Q3 FY-17 at Rs. 16.09 cr (Rs. 1.61 Billion) against a gain of Rs. 15.79 cr (Rs. 1.58 Billion) in Q2 FY-17 impacting the profit after tax in Q3 FY-17 versus Q2 FY-17.

Mr. K. K. Singh, Chairman and Managing Director has said, "Rolta has consciously made efforts to remain at the forefront as a solutions provider with a sharp focus on the Digital revolution. Having made significant investments in the recent years, the Company today, is well positioned to address the huge Digital Transformation opportunities in the markets it serves."

2. Those who are holding the shares of Vedanta Ltd (Rs.256) from around Rs.251-252, can continue to hold for a target of Rs.272.

Today's Calls

1. Buy Vedanta Ltd (or average) at Rs.251.15, T: Rs.257-261, SL: Rs.247.  According to MoneyControl.com:

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage on Vedanta with an overweight call, citing the company’s potential to grow going forward.

The research firm feels that it is the fastest-growing aluminum and zinc company globally. “The balance sheet risk has subsided, which has positioned VEDL on par with global miners and better than local peers,” it said in a report. Additionally, it forecasts a 30 percent FCF CAGR for FY17-19.

Meanwhile, the company in February reported a 4.5-fold jump in third quarter consolidated profit at Rs 1,866 crore on year-on-year basis, boosted by operational performance and low base in year-ago period despite sharp rise in tax expenses.

Revenue during the quarter increased 29.6 percent to Rs 20,393 crore compared with Rs 15,731 crore in corresponding quarter of last fiscal, driven by metals business.

"Revenues in Q3 were driven by higher volumes at iron ore due to recommencement of operations, ramp-up of volumes at the aluminium and power businesses and higher volumes at Copper India and Zinc India. This was partially offset by lower volumes from oil & gas, and Zinc International due to closure of the Lisheen mine, in Q3 FY2016," the company said in its filing.

The company also outlined big plans to invest in Jharkhand last month. Keen to get a strong foothold in Jharkhand, Agarwal said that he had "big plans" for the state but initial foray will be with USD 1 billion investment that includes setting up a 1 million tonne steel plant.

Dubbing Jharkhand as "a diamond in the crown of the world", Vedanta Resources Group Chairman Anil Agarwal said the state is "full of potential" and Vedanta has big plans for it.

"There is a lot of potential...This (Jharkhand) is a real Australia in India with its huge natural resources. We have abig plan but we will start with the medium size or small size project...We intend to set up a one million tonne of steel plant," Agarwal told PTI in an interview.

2. Those who have entered in Inox Wind Ltd at around Rs.169.30-170, should book at least 80% of profits at Rs.185 and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.181. Reentering on dips is suggested in intra - day dips. However, SL at Rs.179 is a must, for fresh entries.

Today's Call

1. Get of Tata Motors Ltd (Rs.462.50) as the scrip could slip to Rs.456-450. However, if it sustains above Rs.463, you can again enter.

2. The correction in Indian markets, may not be too deep, as it looks now. Buy Vedanta Ltd at Rs.252.10, T:Rs.261, SL: Rs.248. Analysts at JP Morgan remain overweight on Hindalco and Vedanta even though the stocks have materially outperformed the broader indexes over the last 12 months as the underlying commodity environment remains supportive and should allow balance sheets to de-lever.

3. Buy Inox Wind Ltd at Rs.169.30-170, T: Rs.210, SL: Rs.162. In a roughly INR-10-billion (USD 149m/EUR 141m) deal Leap Green Energy Pvt Ltd is to acquire the downstream wind power business of India's Inox Group, the Economic Times (ET) said, citing informed sources. An announcement of the acquisition agreement is coming, the sources have said.
India-based Leap Green, majority-owned by JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), has about 450 MW of wind power capacity, while Inox Renewables is an independent power producer (IPP) with nearly 300 MW of wind farms in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, according to the report.



Buy Inox Wind; target of Rs 298: HDFC Securities. HDFC Securities' research report on Inox Wind

Inox Wind (IWL) reported yet another weak quarter as execution got impacted due to demonetisation. 200MW of WTGs were manufactured but could not be commissioned, which led to miss in estimates for the quarter. With improvement in execution, the mgmt expects 4QFY17E to be a disproportionately strong quarter.

Outlook
Our estimates factor in flattish volumes of 3.5GW/1GW for the industry/IWL. Still IWL would generate annual FCF of 5bn going ahead. Given a history of volatile quarterly performance we cut our target P/E multiple to 12x (earlier 15x) to arrive at Dec-18 TP of Rs 298/sh. Reiterate BUY.

"Muhurat" Picks and Other Stocks

First of all, let me wish you all a very happy Deepawali and Kali/Lakshmi Pooja. These days, I am too busy with some Bollywood (and other) Assignments, which calls for frequent change of locations and therefore,  I mostly update this blog from my mobile and Tab. The things at my end are likely to get streamlined from the 2nd week of next month -- till then please bear with me.

The Samvat 2072 was very challenging as the Nifty fell from around 8000 to 6900 during the first four months.

However, post budget day, it had a secular bull run with Nifty gaining around 8% during the whole of Sambar 2072; mid and small caps outperforming their larger peers.

The Indian markets at present are on a Bull Run inspite of the global headwinds like Brexit, talks of a rate hike in the US, Crude Oil meltdown and most importantly, a destabilizing northern frontiers; where the Indian defense forces are struggling to contain streams of terrorist inflow from across the border.

Meanwhile, we have seen a cut in fiscal and current account deficits, accompanied by low inflation and a somewhat stable INR. Moreover, the reversal of interest rate trajectories and good monsoon after a gap of couple of years, have raised hopes of further travel of Nifty towards the North. 

In Samvat 2073 too, I expect this bullish trend to continue as the NDA government continues with its reform agenda, which is likely to catapult a continuous money flow towards the Indian shores; both through FDI and FPI/FII. Recently there are market gossips that the FMO is examining the proposal to cut corporation tax by 1-2%.

Besides, with bond yields on the decline, there is an expectation that retail investors would gravitate towards stocks from fixed income instruments. This also has contributed to higher interest among investors to look for stocks that would deliver good returns over a 12-month horizon.

It is pertinent to mention that, India is among the few countries which has a GDP growth of above 7%; a figure which has led even the DIIs to keep their money taps pouring, on the Indian bourses.

In this condition, I continue to remain bullish in some of the beaten down sectors, like Telecommunications, Banking, Construction (not real estate), Engineering, Upstream Oil companies and Gems and Jewelry sector, apart from FMCG, Steel, Power and Auto. I am recommending two scrips as "Muharat" Picks:

1. Buy Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd at around Rs.110-111, for a short term target of Rs.139-141.

2. Buy Tata Coffee Ltd at Rs.127-128, for a target of Rs.145.

Tata Coffee has reported an 85-per cent growth in profit during July-September quarter at Rs 24 crore as against Rs 13 crore, a year ago. The Coffee production in India for 2016-17, post blossom, was estimated at about 320,000 metric tonne, lower by eight per cent, compared to 348,000 metric tonne in 2015-16 (final estimate).

Updates on my previous recommendations:

1. The investors can book some profits in Shrenuj & Co at around Rs.3.32 and complete profit in Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd at around Rs.14.50-15.50. Though the land prices in Hyderabad and especially in Vijayawada are showing some buoyancy, but Prajay Engineers Ltd like many Hyderabad based companies have a questionable management; so unless you are a too risk taker it is better to book short term profits and invest in better pedigree companies.

2. Those who are still holding my recommended J P Associates Ltd (Rs.11.15) and Unitech Ltd (Rs.6), should book complete profits and exit the counters, as the real estate markets in NCR and MMR are likely to collapse further due to over supply and high base prices. The unsold inventories continue to rise as the Builders are finding extremely difficult to come out of debt traps; as it seems the buyers are continuing to exit real estate space, in these two regions.

3. Those who are holding MBL Infrastructures Ltd (Rs.104.95) and RCom (Rs.46.80) can continue to add on declines for targets of Rs.150-170 and Rs.72, respectively.

MBL Infrastructures Ltd is engaged in execution of civil engineering projects across the country. The company has integrated business model for EPC and BOT projects. Photo: The Hindu Business Line.

4. Those are still holding my recommended Tata Steel Ltd from Rs.217 levels can look for target of Rs.425, where they can book complete profit and wait for dips to enter.

5. Those who are holding my recommended BHEL from Rs.92-106, can continue to add for the long term with a SL at Rs.131.

6. Those who are holding my recommended Vedanta Ltd from Rs.61-62, can look for short term targets of Rs.210-212.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Unitech Ltd as expected bounced today from Rs.6.93 to close at Rs.7.24 in the BSE. The scrip made an intra-day high of Rs.7.35, but could not sustain that levels. The stock should make new 52-week highs in the coming days. This optimism stems from the fact that there were recent media reports which said: Residential real estate sales rose 8% in the April-June quarter, compared to a 3% decline in January-March, suggesting that the market which has seen sluggish growth over the last 2-3 years, is finally seeing some revival signs. Sales across nine key Indian cities - Mumbai, Pune, Noida, Gurgaon, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad – rose to 55,550 units in first quarter of this fiscal from 51,500 units in fourth quarter of 2015-16, according to a report by real estate portal PropTiger. The revival in sales was primarily driven by an uptick in demand in Bengaluru, Pune and Mumbai, which together accounted for 61% of total sales across the 9 cities in the first quarter of fiscal 2017, the report added  The investors should add the scrip on all declines and wait for it to close above Rs.7.30, with good volumes. 

The Share of Reliance Communications Ltd today rose to Rs.52.30 in the BSE before closing at Rs.51.55. Yesterday, the stock was reiterated a buy, with short term targets of Rs.60-61. As mentioned a number of times earlier, the launch of Reliance Jio is positive for the shareholders of Reliance Communications Ltd. Meanwhile the ET, reported on 8 July, 2016 that the  US private equity firm Brookfield Asset Management has emerged, a serious bidder to buy Reliance Communications' stake in its tower unit. RCom and Aircel have been in exclusive talks since December on a much-anticipated amalgamation in what would be the first in-market telecom merger of national scale in the country. 

As per terms of the pact, RCom will hive off its wireless business into a separate arm, which will be combined with Maxis-owned Aircel, with both companies having equal ownership. The new $6 billion entity proposed will remain unlisted in the initial years and operate under a new brand name. 

RCom is now unofficially the 3rd largest Telecom player in India, and we would soon see its reflection in the share price. Therefore, add the scrip on all declines.

The stock of JSW Energy Ltd as expected corrected to Rs.77.50 intra-day before closing at Rs.78.55. Yesterday, it was suggested to exit the counter, either with minimum profits or with no profit no gains. You should leave this stock for the time being, unless it finds its levels. 

The stock of Syncom Formulations Ltd today rose to Rs.3.49 in the BSE before cooling down to Rs.2.86, intra-day and then closing at Rs.3.20. The scrip should be slowly moving towards my next target of Rs.4.20, provided it closes above the strong resistance zone of Rs.3.40-3.50. 

The stock of Karuturi Global Ltd, whose fundamentals are looking great even after their misadventure in Africa, could give multi-bagger returns going forward. The stock made an intra-day high of Rs.1.67, before closing flat at Rs.1.60 in the BSE. The company is fighting a tough battle in the African continent and the recent visit by Narendra Modi, could end their owes. However, this stock is only for risk taking trader - others should stay away from this counter. This is infact high-risk-high-gain counter. Meanwhile, the Karuturi Flower Farm owner reportedly said last month that he will clear his debts and reopen the farm, which has 2,600 workers.

Businessman Ram Karuturi said the farm will be up and running in a couple of months, once court cases are closed. It was put under receivership last year.

It is to be noted that in early 2014, CFC Stanbic Bank had placed Karuturi Global Ltd under receivership after it failed to service a Sh340 million (Sh34 Cr) loan. However, the flower firm’s management protested vehemently against the move, saying the land, valued at Sh8.2 billion, is worth much more than the loan amount. Now let us do some simple calculations:
Sh8.2 billion = Sh820 crores.

Therefore, the price of the farm's land is ~24.11 times the value of the loans, taken by Kenya’s biggest flower firm, Karuturi Global Ltd. Can you imagine? In September 2014, one of its parent flower trading subsidiary in the Netherlands was declared bankrupt. 

Nazret.com writes: 

“Touch me, then you will see the power of India”, declared.....Sai Ramakrishna Karuturi in a recent interview in direct challenge to the Thugtatorship of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (T-TPLF).

However, an interesting part of this episode is that the said farm land is registered under the ownership of Rhea Holdings Ltd/ Surya Holdings Ltd/ Yeshoda Investments Ltd used for flower farming in Naivasha, Kenya. “I am hoping they [liquidators] can find someone to buy air,” Mr Karuturi told The Standard, adding, “there is nothing in there to be sold.” Or in other words, Karuturi and T-TPLF have weaved a convoluted and tangled legal web for themselves in their Gambella Gambit. Did you get me?

Karuturi Global Ltd once boasted of 126 hectares of flowers under greenhouses and a further eight hectares of open air rose cultivation comprising more than 20 popular rose varieties. The firm also prided itself in having significant recognition in key European export markets and comprehensive contracts of sale in 2015 with customers in the main market segments. Karuturi produced 580 million roses per year from its operations in Kenya, Ethiopia and India with estimates showing that one out of nine roses bought in Europe came from the Karuturi farm. The company, few years back acquired more than 300,000 hectares in Ethiopia to produce food for foreign markets. Last year on on August 17, 2015, ICICI Bank acquired 8.89% shares of Karuturi Global Ltd, at a deal is valued at over Rs.24.69 crore.

Jindal Steel and Power Ltd which was recommended around Rs.58-60, today touched my final target of Rs.90 (intra-day- Rs.90.35). The investors should keep holding the scrip till Rs.67, is broken on the downside.

Those who are holding the shares of Lanco Infratech Ltd (Rs.5.05) should exit the scrip on intra-day highs, as it is not performing as per expectations. They could enter Reliance Communications Ltd, after exiting from this scrip.

Those who are holding the shares of BHEL(Rs.148.50), can look for further appreciations of their holdings, as the stock is likely to kiss Rs.163, once Rs.152 is taken on the upside.

Those who are still holding my old recommendation Vedanta Ltd (Rs.168.45) from around Rs.60, should look for targets of around Rs.186-187, once Rs.172-173 is crossed with good volumes.

Those who have a portfolio size of around Rs.4-5 lakhs-plus and is looking for good appreciation over their investments can contact my firm. This is the time to make good money from the share market, when the trends can be identified and exploited. Though 30% appreciation on the capital invested is considered as very good return from any share market, you will get more than that, sitting in the comforts of your home. This market is for the experts and not for amateurs. Also, those who will trade through my associated brokerage house, with a minimum portfolio size of Rs. 1.5 lakhs will get my Premium Service worth Rs.15, 000 per year, FREE OF CHARGE. Therefore, without delay, mail me at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s@gmail.com, if you are really interested in making some quick bucks from the Indian Stock Markets, which are in a roll right now. 

Winning Strokes: Think Different

Today JSW Energy Ltd gave good returns to the investors on intra-day basis. The stock touched Rs.84.20 in the BSE before closing near Rs.84, up 3.32%. The company is coming up with Q1FY17 results on 21st July, 2016. 

Adani Enterpises Ltd which is likely to get benefited due to the recent treaty with the Mozambique government today rose to Rs.83.60, intra-day before closing at Rs.82.80 in the BSE. The stock which has started to move up after consolidating around Rs.80-81, ranges should see its next target of Rs.91, very soon. I feel it would not be an exaggeration to mention here that Adani Group bought land in the African Continent some year back with the primary objective of growing pulses and oilseeds to meet the increasing demand - supply deficit in India. Though the efforts received lot of set backs earlier, but it seems with the patronage of the NDA government, this time, their project might see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The stock of Reliance Communications Ltd today rose to Rs.50.90 before closing at Rs.50.30 in the BSE. Reliance Communications Ltd today informed that it has incorporated an investment firm in the Netherlands in the name of Aircom Holdco BV.  Now, this comes before the official announcement of the merger deal with Aircel, hence we need to read between the lines. My estimation is that: the scrip is likely to see Rs.56-57-60, within a short time. 

Today, the stock of micro-cap pharma company, Syncom Formulations (India) Ltd was recommended to the Paid Group members at Rs.2.46 for short term targets of Rs.5.20-9. 

Syncom Formulations (India) Ltd is engaged in the business of pharmaceutical formulations. It manufactures range of products in various dosage forms and markets them in various countries. 

The company purchased a property situated in Mumbai worth Rs.11.00 crore on March 15, 2016.  

The rupee seems to be favouring the pharma sector and one is still going to see a net-net good growth for some of these companies, like Syncom Formulations Ltd, which has a market cap of only Rs.190.48 Cr at the CMP of Rs.2.44. In FY16, the company came out with a net profit of Rs.10.36 Cr on an equity of only Rs.78.07 Cr. The reserves of the company is Rs.30.63 crores.

Syncom Formulations (India) Ltd (Syncom) is a generic pharmaceutical company, since last two decades. It undertakes the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical formulations. The company’s product portfolio includes alpha adrenoceptor agonist, analgesic, antipyretic, anti-inflammatory, anti-ulcer agents, antibiotics and stimulants, among others. 

It has been serving the demands of more than 20 countries globally with WHO GMP certified manufacturing unit, ISO: 9001-2008 certification and experienced team. It is a prime Exporter, Manufacturer and Supplier of a wide range of  Dry Injections, Dry Powder Injections, Dry Vial Injections, Tablets, Capsules, Liquids Orals, Liquid Vials And Ampoule Injections, Dry Syrups, Ointments, Inhalers, Herbals, etc. 

The company markets products worldwide, under brand names such as Ostocrat, Oxycrat, Raftus and Amoxytop. It has its operational presence in Canada, Peru, Panama, Mali, Ghana, Hong Kong, Cambodia, the Philippians, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Congo, Yemen, China, Nepal, and Chutan, among others. Syncom is headquartered in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India. It has more than 400 products registered. 

In addition, it has also ventured into the business of exporting of Surgical products, Agro & Confectionery products like Rice, Wheat Flour, Chickpeas, Soy DOC, Biscuits & Candies, Industrial products like Fasteners, Steel Bars, Roofing Sheets & Jute Bags, Metal Scrap, etc. 

Syncom Formulations India Ltd earlier informed the BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on May 30, 2016, inter alia, has recommended a dividend of Re.0.02 (2%) per equity share of Re. 1 each for the year 2015-16; which will be paid to all the members/beneficiaries of the Company, subject to approval of member at the forth coming Annual General Meeting of the Company.

Today a buy call was initiated on Idea Cellular Ltd at Rs.105.30 for a short term target of Rs.111 -116. Recently, Idea Cellular Ltd announced up to 67% reduction in 4G and 3G mobile Internet rates to compete with rival Bharti Airtel and ward off threat from Reliance Jio. This is a right move at the right juncture.

The promoters holding in the company stood at 42.23%, while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 32.14% and 25.63% respectively.

Idea Cellular, one of the biggest cellular carrier of the country, has added 6.89 lakh new mobile subscribers in June, 2016. Following the addition, the company’s total subscriber count stood at 17.62 crore with a market share of 22.68%. Idea Cellular, an AV Birla group company, provides Global System for Mobile communications (GSM)-based wireless service at the pan-India level, it is present in all 22 telecom circles.

Idea Cellular's management recently told analysts that it is not looking to bid for 700 MHz spectrum auction.  Idea management told analysts that it does not see a spectrum supply constraint anymore. Idea sees competition to intensity over two years but expects gains in revenue from increased market share. 

Some of my earlier recommended counter, which did well today are BHEL (CMP: Rs.144.25), Vedanta Ltd (Rs.161.75), Jaiprakash Associates Ltd (Rs.11.99), Unitech Ltd (Rs.8.34), Lanco Infratech Ltd (Rs.5.35), etc. 

Today's Recommendations

(i) Rotla India Ltd seems to have formed a temporary bottom around Rs.63. Its consolidated net profit has grown 64.4 per cent to Rs 59.21 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2016. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 36.01 crore in the same quarter last year. 

However, Rolta's total income from operations dipped to Rs.846.04 crore in the reported quarter as against Rs 946.14 crore in the year-ago period. 

The stock is slowly moving up after the company gave progress report on the future defence project. Rolta India Ltd had informed the stock exchanges that it has done significant expenses “on a very prestigious and time-bound defence project”, which required considerable ongoing investment. Rolta management is diligently working on addressing the overall situation in a comprehensive manner in consultation with its bankers and strategic advisers. The aim is to arrive at an acceptable solution in the interest of all stakeholders and the Company will be informing all stakeholders at the earliest possible opportunity and is committed to finding a viable resolution. Moreover, since Rolta India Ltd derives most of its operations from the domestic operations, hence it will not get affected much due to Brexit (if any). 

Last month, the company announced that it has won seven year, multi-million pound contract from UK Power Networks to manage and update their spatially-enabled network asset information. UK Power Networks is a major utility company that delivers electricity to London, the South East and the East of England.

The company last year announced that it had won Smart City and 3D Mapping with city modelling projects in the West Asia, for a combined value of around US $ 15 million.

Last year, the exclusive consortium of Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and Rolta India Limited were selected as a development agency for a more than Rs 50,000 crore Battlefield Management System (BMS) project by the Defence Ministry.


The BMS project, categorised as a "Make" programme under the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), will be one of the largest solutions to be indigenously manufactured for the the country's defence, BEL, a Navaratna PSU, said.

Therefore, Buy Rolta Ltd at Rs.63.50, T: Rs.71, SL: Rs.61.40 (strict). There is not much downside in the counter. 

(ii) Unitech Ltd (Rs.6.25), should be added on intra-day declines. The stock is on an uptrend and soon we will see it touch Rs.12-13. The scrip recently came to the news more due to wrong reasons, though its fundamentals are improving. The Real Estate sector is also expected to see a turnaround in 2016-17. 

(iii) Today there was a block deal on the the stock of Jaiprakash Associates Ltd (Rs.7.83) at Rs.7.80. Yesterday. there was high delivery based buying (41.40%). The company is hiring a consultant to for a quick turnaround. Also, the company would be a major beneficiary of the RBI's new directive on stressed assets. At present there is not much negative news in the counter. One should accumulate, on intra-day dips.

(iv) Lanco Infratech Ltd (Rs.4.70) is one of the companies, who could also get benefited from the RBI's latest move regarding stressed assets. Besides this, the company itself is taking a lot of measures to streamline its debts. You should buy the scrip for a short term target of Rs.9.5-10. This scrip would make new 52-week high soon.

(v) The stock of Adani Power Ltd (Rs.30.50) is also on an uptrend in tune with my earlier recommended Adani Enterprise Ltd (Rs.83). Hold the scrip for a target of Rs.33-34, in the short term.   

(vi) Vedanta Ltd (Rs.127) has almost doubled from my recommended price of Rs.64.40. The stock is on an uptrend and one can hold the scrip with a SL of Rs.121. 

(vii) Union Bank Ltd (Rs.129), today made an intra-day high of Rs.129.50, and hit my 2nd target. One can book partial profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.127, for a target of Rs.131-132. 

DO YOU KNOW?

Photo: The Hindu

The euphoria which fueled a Market Rally back in 2013-2014 on hope that Prime Minster Narendra Modi would boost growth, revive the investment cycle and prop up earnings growth, helped push earnings multiples for some of the mid and small cap stocks to reach record highs. 

However, some of these shares lost steam slowly in the past 12 months. But they are still good buying opportunity on dips, feel experts. Investors have to be selective before putting their hard-earned money in these stocks. 

One such stock is Reliance Communications Ltd, which looks to cut down the debts by 75% in the next few months. 

"Integration of MTS business with RCom is on track. We expect to complete the integration in August. We expect to make announcement with respect to Aircel merger anytime in June. Once we complete the Aircel transaction, we will go for the tower deal," RCom CEO for consumer business Gurdeep Singh said during a conference call on Tuesday.

"With completion of these deals, we expect RCom's debt to reduce by 75 per cent."

RCom's net debt at the end of March 2016 stood at Rs 41,362.1 crore.

RCom and Aircel have extended discussion period for a possible merger of the two till June 22. Mr Singh said discussions are in advanced stages.

Reliance Communications Ltd (R-Com) and Aircel Ltd are likely to complete the merger of their wireless operations by the end of the month, a top Reliance Group official said last week. Talks between RCom and Aircel, if successful, would lead to a combined entity holding 19.3% of the total spectrum allocated to the industry - the highest by an entity. .

On a lighter note: Outlook's Essar leaks show who controls the vital pillars of Indian democracy.. 

The two brothers, Mukesh and Anil (Ambani) have already tied up in the telecom space.

But most of the investors are now confused, because some of the rating agencies have still not changed their negative outlook on Reliance Communications Ltd, even though it has taken pro-active steps to push-up its fundamentals. 

And as usual some financial analysts who fail to understand the potential of this deal, continue to peddle their "Avoid Jargon". This has led to many Investors losing patience and selling the scrip of Reliance Communications Ltd at a distressed price, like they did in case of Vedanta Ltd (Rs.122.55), Hindalco Ltd (Rs.118.80), BHEL (Rs122.35), JSW Energy Ltd (Rs.84.10) and so on; only to repent later. 

Most Investors have a habit of believing more or drinking a bottle of cold drink more when they see suited-booted persons sitting in TV-channels and shooting their trading ideas. This is the irony!! 

Meanwhile, after R-Com and Aircel had begun discussions about six months ago, the former's shares have fallen by more 45% since then. 

This again gives the investors to zoom-in, in this shares, especially when the Telecom Commission has lowered the annual spectrum usage fee for telcos to 3% of revenue for all bands in the upcoming auction slated for July, and brought the 4G airwaves purchased in 2010 under the ambit of a formula to calculate the overall fee for each carrier. 

The Business Today writes, on 3 July, 2016 edition: 

It is a one-stop solution the government seems to have found to preclude allegations of corruption in the allocation of natural resources - hold an auction. From oil and gas blocks to coal blocks to spectrum bandwidth, auctions have become the preferred mode of sale to both ensure transparency and generate substantial revenue. The civil aviation ministry even considered auctioning unused and future bilateral rights (rights to fly to foreign destinations negotiated with destination countries), though the proposal was eventually stalled due to internal differences over its advisability. The reverse auction, where the government is the buyer of goods or services, has also become an effective means of driving down prices, especially in the case of solar tariffs.

Last year alone, a total of 55 coal mines were auctioned over three rounds, of which 28 went to private companies and 27 to Central and state PSUs. 3G and broadband wireless spectrum was auctioned too, earning the government over Rs.1.1 lakh crore. This year, there are expectations of another Rs 70,000 crore from the auction of 67 small oil and gas fields, which began in late May. (So far, under the New Exploration Licensing Policy or NELP, formulated in 1998, over 250 hydrocarbon blocks have been auctioned across nine rounds.)

Anyway, in the latest move to help banks deal with their stressed assets, RBI has issued guidelines to help banks identify opportunities to convert up to half of their non-performing debt positions in indebted companies into equity, should the borrowers meet certain criteria that would determine if their debt is sustainable in the long-term. Under RBI's ‘Scheme for Sustainable Structuring of Stressed Assets,’ the conversion into equity or quasi-equity instruments could provide an incentive to lenders to share in the profits should the indebted company turn around, according to an RBI note.

So what types of bad debt situations are eligible for this provision? Stressed debt related to all commercially operational entities that owe more than Rs.500 crore to lenders, including interest, would qualify. Additionally, their debt should also meet RBI’s test of sustainability which includes.

Once the sustainable debt has been worked out, the banks and borrowing companies can evaluate various recapitalisation scenarios with the help of an external agency. The equity portion of the deal will have to be "marked to market," or deemed at fair value, according to the RBI note.

Banks would also have to follow certain terms and conditions that will govern the sustainable debt portion -- such as one that would prohibit them from extending the repayment schedule of the loans, or otherwise amending loan terms, according to the note. Other caveats and conditions can be found here.

To be sure, banks have had the option to convert their debt into equity in the past, but the procedures have been somewhat onerous in India that would allow banks to take “haircuts,” where a lender agrees to a loan repayment less than what is owed.


The latest move is good news for banks as they have another option and framework at hand to resolve their bad debt mess, according to Srikanth Vadlamani, a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service. 

Thus, Dr.Raghuram Rajan's exit, could bring in a rally in the shares of companies, who have been sitting on the piles of debts, because it could rekindle the hopes of a massive interest rate cuts; if the INR remains stable. This gives legs to the shares like Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.47.20). 

I will recommend another, a very well known share tomorrow in this blog (anytime after 10 am in the morning), which could get benefited both by Dr.Rajan's exit and also due to RBI's latest move, regarding restructuring of the debt portfolios. 

Therefore, buy the shares of Reliance Communications Ltd at the CMP of Rs.47.20, for a target of Rs.72-plus in some months. Just buy and forget!! 

RCom readies blueprint to revive telecom fortunes

[Editor: One thing I would like to mention here: don't depend on rating agencies and brokerage houses's "MOTIVATED UPGRADES", for your stock picking decisions!! You must remember, how some years back, Kotak Securities downgraded Reliance Industries Ltd only to see a spurt in the stock price. CLSA downgraded Vedanta Ltd, the stock is moving up everyday. Lot of downgrades were seen in Unitech Ltd (Rs.5.65), but the stock gave more than 50% return in the last few days. Recently, JSW Energy Ltd was seen downgraded to hold from buy, the stock touched Rs.85.95 yesterday. Also, how can we forget a series of downgrades by rating agencies on BHEL, the stock is now up more than 30%, from those prices. 

And at the end S P Tulsiyan said, after the results of Punjab National Bank Ltd, that he would not touch the PSBs in the next two quarters; only to recommend a buy on SBI a couple of weeks later - - pointing out how fickle are their decisions or how treacherous they can be while recommending stocks to the gullible investors/traders. 

Anyway, Reliance Communications Ltd has repeatedly said that it expects to cut down debt by 75% through merger of MTS, Aircel and sales of mobile towers. So, I feel there is no reason to be apprehensive about the company. Therefore, I again reiterate a buy on the shares of reliance communications Ltd at the CMP of Rs.47.20 for a target of Rs.72. This stock is to be bought and kept holding for some days; like your fixed deposits to get some wonderful returns. ]

MUMBAI, JUNE 7: Reliance Communications (RCom) may be a ‘trouble zone’ for the Anil Ambani-led Group, but the company has prepared a blueprint to revive its fortunes.

The plan includes sale of its tower assets, merging its wireless business with Aircel, and migrating from CDMA-based 2G services to 4G services. All of this is aimed at reducing its debt pile and expected to be completed within the next few months.

Tower asset sale

To start with, RCom has ended the exclusive nature of discussions with private equity firm Tillman Global Holdings LLC to sell its tower assets. The Anil Ambani-backed telecom firm has extended the discussions to at least two or three other interested bidders. In December, RCom had inked an agreement to sell its tower assets to private equity firms TPG and Tillman Global. The companies had entered into an exclusivity agreement till January 15. The exclusivity was then further extended.

However, differences over valuation forced RCom to look beyond Tillman. In order to improve the valuation, the tower deal will now happen only after RCom seals the merger of its wireless business with Aircel.

RCom wants to sell its 44,000 telecom towers to pare debt, which stands at ₹40,479 crore. The company hopes to get about ₹20,000-22,000 crore from the sale of tower assets. Of the balance ₹20,000 crore debt, RCom plans to transfer ₹14,000 crore to the newly created company post the merger with Aircel.

The merged entity will be owned jointly by RCom and Aircel. RCom will carve out its wireless mobile business and transfer the same to the new entity.

The enterprise business – which includes the international cable unit and the fixed line infrastructure within the country – will continue to be under RCom.

Post the merger with Aircel, expected to happen by end-June, the new entity is estimated to have a combined market share of 13 per cent in terms of the overall industry revenue.

Debt transfer

EBITDA of the new company is expected to be around ₹5,000-6,500 crore and the overall debt will be close to ₹28,000 crore. Aircel, which has nearly ₹18,000-20,000 crore of debt on its books, will transfer ₹14,000 crore to the new entity.

The balance debt will be settled by Aircel prior to the merger. Aircel has already sold its 4G spectrum to Airtel for nearly ₹4,000 crore. Once the merger with Aircel is done, RCom hopes to get better valuation for its tower assets riding on higher tenancy ratio and brighter prospects in the wireless business, especially 4G services.

RCom has already begun shutting down its CDMA-based 2G network by migrating subscribers to 4G services. Here too, the company is ensuring its focus on high-quality consumers.

End of CDMA services

Over the next few months, RCom will shut down CDMA networks across the country. The company has done a deal with Mukesh Ambani-backed Reliance Industries to share and trade 4G network and spectrum.

This, along with the spectrum from Aircel, will be enough for RCom’s wireless business to challenge Idea Cellular’s (the no. 3mobile operator in the country), according to senior company executives.

Analysts tracking the telecom sector said that though the plan looks good on paper, the actual outcome will depend on how soon Anil Ambani closes the sale of tower assets. “RCom’s tower asset has been on the block for a while. Fresh round of talks began in December but there seems to be a gap in expected valuation and what buyers are ready to offer. Hence the uncertainty continues,” said an analyst on conditions of anonymity.

But the company insists there are no delays. Senior executives said negotiations for the tower sale started only six months back, at a time when similar deals in the industry have taken 2-3 years.

Courtesy: The Hindu Business Line