Winning Strokes: Think Different

The stock of Bhusan Steel Ltd (Rs.40.40) which was recommended around Rs.22.65 to those who are subscribed to my Premium Services and to those who are trading through BMA Wealth Creators Ltd is going on for some correction after a long BULL run. The Premium Members were asked to book profits at around Rs.42-45. I hope most of them and those who are trading through my recommended brokerage house have made good profit on this scrip. These days, it is a little difficult to make money only following this blog, unless you do some research on the scrips, mentioned here.....the days of making money from the share market through fluke or "Tukka" is probably over -- there is a need for taking of specialized help, because you are competing with CAs, ICWAIs, MBA Finance Professionals, Veteran Market Players, etc.

I have given a buy on the share of Vakrangee Ltd (Rs.34.15) to my Premium Clients yesterday. The scrip is trading near its 52-week low price of Rs.31 and have lost more than 80% since the start of 2018. The shares have low downside considering the current developments. Some Business Channels like Bloomberg-Quint and CNBC TV18 are unnecessarily creating fear psychosis among the shareholders, after the company parted ways with its previous auditor, i.e. PwC; as if this is the first time it has happened in a listed company. According to the management Vakrangee Ltd 's EBIDTA is equivalent to its PBT. 

The point is that: if the financials of the company are so pathetic why would the new auditors agree to take charge of the company? Are the new auditors not aware of pros and cons of misreporting? Meanwhile, the company's treasury committee has also revised its investing policy, where it would now invest ~90% of its surplus funds in debts and the rest 10% through Mutual Funds -- the direct investing in equity shares has been discontinued. The company is having around 44,000 "Vakrangee (Seva) E-Kendras" in India spread across 16 states and ~15000 of them are in Rajasthan alone. The management claims it to be a debt free and the market cap of the company is only Rs.3,615.81 crore. The company has a good business model, however  the accumulation of NPAs in the banking sector is a cause of concern. Buy the shares of the company with a SL at Rs.26 and hold them for 3-6 months, for at least 50% appreciation from the CMP of Rs.34.15. Prudent investors, should buy a scrip it is out of the radar of the general investors.

The stock of Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.7.11) is going in for correction after making a recent high of around Rs.7.4. The target for the scrip for the premium members was given Rs.9, which it almost reached. However, those who bought the scrip at around Rs.4.65, for their money nearly doubled during the last few weeks. Congratulations to all those who could make money in this scrip. 

The scrip of Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.14.50)  is consolidating around Rs.14-15 ranges, after it reached its 1st target of Rs.21, some days back. You can buy the scrip with a SL at Rs.11.60.

Lot of the "Blog Readers" who have not exited at the Stop Losses, have asked me (through e-mails) about some of my previous recommendations like: MBL Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.15.35), 3i Infotech Ltd (Rs.4.42), Jai Balaji Industries Ltd (Rs.9.65), Future Enterprises Ltd (Rs.35.90) , TV Vision Ltd (Rs.9.63) etc. But for personalized information or for my opinion on specific scrips, you either need to subscribe to my Premium Service or Trade through BMA Wealth Creators Ltd. 

Also, the offer for the small investors who have lost money, to start again with minimum fund through BMA Wealth Creators Ltd is over. Now, you need to have a portfolio size of around Rs.2 lakhs to get FREE PREMIUM SERVICE. You can reach me at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s@gmail.com.

Winning Strokes

Photos: Colossos

The Indian bourses got support at around near 9981, as mentioned to the Premium Members during the market hours yesterday. The pullback rally made the Nifty gain by 132.60 points or 1.33%. The Nifty is likely to get some resistance near 200-DMA, but the short term trend remains bullish.  

The stock of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd which was recommended around Rs.422 yesterday, moved to Rs.429.15 in the NSE before closing at Rs.424.80. Today, if the market remains buoyant, then we could see Rs.433-437 - 441-447 levels. 

The scrip of MCX Ltd (Rs.688.75) moved to Rs.698, after it was recommended around Rs.681, to the Premium Members. The company is likely to launch two more products in April 2018. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mrugank M Paranjape, MD & CEO of Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) said that  the exchange is witnessing positive increase in volume in the 45-50 days of Q4. In January, this year SBI Mutual Fund bought 8,19,048 shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India at Rs.840.50. We can look for targets of Rs.797-820 in the coming days.. 

The share of 3i Infotech Ltd yesterday moved to Rs.5.25 in the  NSE before closing at Rs.5.05. With the IT industry undergoing rapid changes in recent years, whether it is on, the software side or new business models, software companies are forced to adopt or make crucial changes to their overall strategies in order to stay relevant in the changing times. And that’s what the Mumbai based software product company 3i Infotech has done in recent years by planning and executing a three-stage business strategy of ‘protect-consolidate-grow.’ To a large extent, this strategy has been successful in helping 3i Infotech to revive and revamp its overall business, software product portfolio, customers, revenue, and growth. You can start averaging and we can look for targets of Rs.5.70-6.90-7.85 in the coming days.

Today, during the market hours I will recommend a short term momentum counter to the Paid Group members. Join the Premium Group or trade through my associated brokerage house with a minimum portfolio size of Rs.3 lakhs to get the name of the scrip; which is likely to cover your subscription charge. 

Also, note that I have decided to give Special discounts on the subscription charge, to the SMALL INVESTORS, till 15th April, 2018. So hurry up!! The market has become so competitive these days, that it is getting increasingly difficult to make money on a consistent basis even for the experts. 

Today's Calls

1. Buy Idea Cellular at Rs.85.45, T: Rs.89-91, SL: Rs..84.60. Idea Cellular to launch payments bank operations in June. The company, that recently received the Reserve Bank of India's final approval to open its payments bank, is in the process of integrating its systems with those of the National Payments Corporation of India and the RBI. Joining the network will allow it to facilitate interbank electronic transactions.

2. Sudarshan Sukhani says in CNBC TV18: "The chart of Tata Motors is horrible", but the share makes an intraday high of Rs.455.70.This only goes to show how only chart based calls are futile. I have been saying this since more than a decade, but Chartists (mostly the software sellers) fails to acknowledge this facet of trading.....😀 Anyway, if the stock manages to close above Rs.458, then we can look for targets of Rs.472-475, in the short term.

3. The worst in the telecom sector seems to be over, as RJio is now Paid. Moreover, UBS had earlier spoken of a much better quarter sequentially from Q1FY18 (June Quarter) onwards. Therefore, start accumulating Telecom stocks in bulk to reap good benefits in the short to medium term. Also the correction on RCom seems to over and one can buy the shares of RCom at Rs.34.50, T: Rs.39-41. There is no need to keep SL as the scrip of RCom is now available at rock bottom price, especially when the optimism in the sector is again returning; after almost 3-quarters of pain.
Meanwhile, there are recent media reports that the mega merger between Reliance Communications (RCom) and Aircel to create the country’s third-largest operator is entering the final phase, with both companies seeking shareholder approval in the coming days.

4. Today, the Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The Nikkei 225 gained 0.11%, while the Shanghai Composite led the Hang Seng lower. They fell 0.74% and 0.21% respectively. Indians markets are today trading flat, however action is seen on beaten down Counters.

Important

1. Those who have still now not sold the

shares of Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (Rs.14.05) can continue to hold with a SL of Rs.11.70 for earlier mentioned targets of Rs.18-21. The property prices in Hyderabad and Vijayawada are showing some buoyancy amidst all the doom and gloom in NCR, MMR, Bangalore, Pune, Kolkata, etc. How this opportunity is utilized by the Prajay management to effect a turn around, remains to be seen.

2. The shares of RCom should soon break out from the current levels and move towards Rs.53-54. The investors are suggested to have a little patience. Some of the analysts with qhom I spoke during the last couple of months have more or less given a target of Rs.72, for the scrip.

3. Shrenuj & Co hit another buyer freeze at Rs.3.65. The investors are suggested to book some profit.

4. With lot of fanfare, the Mumbai based operator S P Tulsian recommended MBL Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.105) and Jai Corp Ltd ( Rs.72.55). But once both the stocks started to underperform, he and his pet channel CNBC TV18 are found nowhere. Pump and Dump..? Photo: Dynamic Levels

5. Those who are holding Vedanta Ltd (Rs.215) from Rs.61-62 levels can book 80% profits a d hold the rest with a SL of Rs.196.

6.Those who have entered Texmaco Rail Ltd should hold with a SL of Rs.107. Since the budget date will be advanced, we can expect the share to touch Rs.141-142, in the next couple of months.

Navi Mumbai and Jai Corp Ltd

Photo: Twenty22--India

The land prices in  Navi Mumbai are shooting up due to:

(i) the proposed international airport near Ulwe,

(ii) the proposed trans-harbour sea link between Navi Mumbai and Shewri, south Mumbai. After its completion,  commuters will be able  reach Nariman Point from Panvel in mere 30 minutes.

(iii) the metro linkage between Navi Mumbai airport and Belapur. In future this metro project is likely to extend up to Chembur via Taloja and Vashi,

(iv) due to Navi Mumbai Sez.

The Financial Express writes on 3 October, 2016:

Navi Mumbai is now also connected via the eastern freeway in Chembur to Nariman Point in south Mumbai.

With real estate costs that are nearly as competitive as those in Gurgaon, Pune or even some pockets of Bengaluru, Navi Mumbai is staking a claim to become the next big IT hub. 

The direct beneficiary would be Jai Corp Ltd (Rs.71), which has large land holdings in Navi Mumbai and Mumbai Sezs apart from its traditional business. Anand Jain of Jai Corp is a close associate of Mukesh Ambani, who also owns land in Mumbai Sez.

I feel it is pertinent to mention here that S P Tulsian of www.sptulsian.com earlier told CNBC-TV18 that: "In the land bank, Navi Mumbai SEZ has 4,100 acre and Mumbai SEZ has 4,600 acre in which Jai Corp is having interest. With this trans-harbour link, Sewri to Navi Mumbai, that will give a good value to that land. Still things are there, regulatory clearance and all that conversion from SEZ, but this company is holding minority stake in that and that will definitely be seen quite positive."

Rolta India Ltd: Result Update

Rolta India Ltd has come up with a decent set of numbers for Q4FY16, with its Consolidated profit Zooming by 26% to Rs.59 crore on QoQ basis, mainly due to lower depreciation and amortization expenses.

However, its consolidated net sales in Q4FY16, dipped marginally by only 13.7% at Rs.846 crore The information technology company had net sales of Rs.981 crore in December 2015 quarter.

The depreciation and amortization expenses declined 89% to Rs 19 crore in March quarter from Rs170 crore in December quarter.

However, the share nosedived by more than 7%, as the rating agencies S&P Global Rating and Fitch Ratings cut the company's credit score.

S&P Global Ratings on Monday lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on Rolta India to 'CCC-' from 'B+'. At the same time, the credit rating firm lowered its long-term issue rating on the senior unsecured notes that Rolta Americas and Rolta issued to 'CCC-' from 'B+'. Rolta guarantees the notes.

On Friday, Fitch Ratings too had downgraded Rolta India's Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and senior unsecured class rating to 'CC' from 'B'.

Meanwhile, Rolta India Ltd's CMD, Mr.K K Singh said that the company is confident of making a USD 6.9-million payment on overseas notes before the grace period deadline of June 15, 2016. 

He was talking to CNBC-TV18 after S&P and Fitch downgraded the firm's credit rating following a default on its 10.75% 2018 unsecured currency notes. Singh said an increase in the company's receivables period, from average 120-125 days to almost 185-190 days led to a cash crunch. But he maintained that the company was transitioning into an IP-led solutions business and is looking to rope in a strategic partner for large projects like defence, something that would help revive margins and return to comfortable leverage levels. He also clarified that the recent exit of two senior-level management personnel had no connection to the business performance. 

Therefore, the investors are suggested to buy the scrip of Rolta India Ltd (Rs.72.20) at the CMP and hold on, for some decent returns over a period. 

Mcleod Russel Ltd: Results Update

The Economic Times wrote on 30 May, 2016: 

Leading tea grower firm McLeod Russel reported widening of its standalone net loss at Rs.235.67 crore in the fourth quarter of the 2015-16 fiscal on higher expenses and financial cost.The Kolkata-based company had posted a net loss of Rs.207.95 crore in the same quarter previous year, it said in a BSE filing.

But what the news portal missed out is to present the CONSOLIDATED RESULTS which are NOT THAT BAD. The stock reacted to the news and fell to Rs.179.80 at the time of writing this report. 

The company said its EBIDTA on standalone basis was lower at Rs.82 Cr against Rs.126 Cr on substantial increase in wages during the year. The impact of price increase of Rs.2 per kg, was not sufficient to take of such increase in cost. EBIDTA cost per kg went up to Rs.167 as compared to Rs.150 per kg. This means from the following quarters the company will not have this factor this; as far as the standalone results are compared. But we are more interested in the CONSOLIDATED RESULTS, because the shareholders generally look at the consolidated results, to find how a company is faring, isn't it? Moreover, we invest in a company depending on its future outlook. 

Now let us see what the company said in a BSE filling. 

(a) The Consolidating Operating Earnings Before Interest Depreciation and Tax (EBIDTA) is HIGHER at Rs.167 Cr as against Rs.130 Cr last year. The increase in EBIDTA was mainly due to increase in production and prices for Uganda and Rwanda operation. So, does that look SCARY? 

Now let us hear, what the company, spoke about its future outlook: 

Black Tea production during 2015, was negatively impacted by lower production in India and Kenya. Tea prices at Mombasa auction increase by 20% over previous year. However, tea prices in India maintained at last year's level. 

(b) We observed COMPLETE REVERSAL of these FACTORS during the FIRST FOUR MONTHS of the current year. 

Tea production in Kenya is reported to be HIGHER by 40 million kg upto March, as compared to previous year on account of much improved weather conditions. 

Tea prices at Mombasa auction during the first four months of the year have decreased by 20% as compared to last year. 

Weather conditions in India during the first few months of new season have IMPROVED substantially as compared to dry weather conditions last year. It is expected that the industry would recover substantial part of crop losses suffered last year. 

Prices in India are likely to REMAIN FIRM mainly due to ROBUST DEMAND in Indian as well as Global markets. Recovery of crop should help in setting of increase in the wages and other input costs. 

Now what does it mean? It indicates that the company is expected to perform much better than the previous year's performance. 


Moreover, in an interview with a Business Channel, CNBC-TV18, its Chief Financial Officer Mr.Kamal Baheti, said that the Tea company McLeod Russel  expects to produce 87 million kilograms of tea at its plantations in India, and 30 million kilograms at its overseas plantations. 

He said last year was difficult, but he expected a better performance this year. Baheti expects domestic realisations to imporve by 5 % this year and overseas realisations by 15-20%.

He said the company aimed to export 21-22 million kilograms of tea this year, compared to 13 million kilograms last year.

Also, remember, McLeod Russel is the largest tea plantation company in the world. It prides itself on running a successful business that directly employs over 90,000 people and has an excellent reputation around the world.

Hence, I would suggest the shareholders, to accumulate the scrip on all declines for an increased short term price target of Rs.220. 

McLeod Russel India Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.181.70
Target: Rs.205
Time: 60 days

The stock of Mcleod Russel India Ltd has not taken part in the current rally. Buy the share at the CMP of Rs.181.70, for a short term target of Rs.197. 

This Williamson Magor group-controlled company aims to scale up their packet tea business to become the third largest in India.

There were media reports last month that inclement weather is taking a toll on people across the country, especially the North-East where tea production might be impacted owing to difficult weather conditions. While Assam has witnessed heavy rains, Darjeeling has gone through a dry spell (though the company does not have much exposure here). Speaking to Bloomberg TV India, McLeod Russel CFO Kamal Baheti says while there could be some impact of April, FY17 looks brighter than last two years.

He said: "If you look at the full financial year, April produces 5 per cent of the overall production. So, the loss of crop in April may not really impact the annual production. But, it really depends on how the weather plays out. We hope that things will improve. It is normal in Assam to get rain continuously for 10-15 days. As I said, it’s too early to really make a call on this. But you know, if you really have to look at the structure of industry per se, it has been losing crop since last two years because of dry weather. This is the first time we’re getting enough rains in Assam. With a little bit increase in the overall temperature and rainfall, it may be a good year for production. And since the rate of production has been low in the last two years, we also expect the prices to be strong this year. Compared with the previous year, 2016-17 looks much better, both on the production as well as the price".

Earlier in an interview with CNBC TV18, on 22 March, 2016, Mr.Kamal Baheti, CFO said, "Considering supply shortages, good demand and firm closing prices during the last season (higher by Rs.20-25 per kg), tea prices are expected to be strong in the upcoming auction". 

He feels the tea prices are likely to increase by at least 15-20% in the new season from July to October.   

Baheti pointed out that a major chunk of the company’s profitability kicks in only during the third and fourth quarters as the new season begins.   Although overseas business of the company is also expected to perform better, the focus will be on the domestic market, he said.

Therefore, we can look for taking positions in the share of Mcleod Russel Ltd at the CMP of Rs.181.70, for target of Rs.193-197-205. The Company is coming up with Q4FY16 results, on 30 May, 2016. 

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Please Click on the Photo to Expand

Rolta India Ltd, recommended at around Rs.92.75 to the Premium Group members on 16 December 2015, touched Rs.99.30, intra-day and closed at Rs.98.65. Tell me how many of the Free Members also made money, because the stock was also recommended in this blog at Rs.95.50? Now what to do with the scrip? Confused? Join the Premium Service!!

The price of my Paid Package/s is/are expected to increase from 15 January, 2016. Those who will enroll before that will get the subscription not only at the earlier price tag, but will also get 3 months grace. Which means the price will be Rs.10, 000 per year, for 15 months. Moreover, those who will trade through my recommended brokerage house, with a minimum portfolio size of Rs.1 lakhs, will get the Premium Subscription Free of Charge, till he/she continues trading through this platform...Also, those who are willing to invest around Rs.10-15 lakhs in share market, do let me know; I have a scrip which could double in the next 12-18 months (or may be before that). We just need to buy this scrip and keep holding. The profit will be shared in a mutually agreed ratio, between you and my firm.

Vedanta Ltd, recommended on 19 December, 2015, at Rs.84.30, today touched Rs.87, intra-day and closed at Rs.86.55. The stock will break Rs.96-97, soon; remain invested. 

TV18 Broadcast Ltd recommended on 26 October 2016, at Rs.32.75 in this Free Blog, today touched Rs.46.25, intra-day (which is the new 52-week high) and closed at Rs.45.80. Congratulations to all those who made money in this scrip. Keep visiting this blog and make money. 

Pipavav Defence Ltd today touched Rs.82 and closed at Rs.79.10, on the BSE-kindly book profits and enter either Vedanta Ltd at Rs.86.55 or Hindalco Industries Ltd at Rs.81.20.

The Stock of Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.42.95) has started to look good once again. Keep buying the scrip on all declines, for a short term target of Rs.48.

TV18 Broadcast Ltd: Latest Shareholding Pattern

CMP: Rs.32.70

You can see in the above photo, that both the FIIs and DIIs have increased their stake in TV18 Broadcast Ltd (A Mukesh Ambani Group company), in the September, 2015 quarter, speaking sequentially.

Moreover, Rekha Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Reliance Capital Ltd and Government Pension Fund Global are holding 2.32%, 1.21% and 2.67% of the shares of the company, respectively. Also, do you know where, Pension Funds generally put their money (invest)? Please search Internet to get the answer.....

It is to be remembered that on 29 May last year, in the biggest ever deal in India's media sector, Reliance Industries acquired control in Network18 Media & Investments Ltd, including its subsidiary TV18 Broadcast Ltd, for Rs.4,000 crore. Subsequently, the company made open offers to acquire a controlling stake in media group Network18 and its subsidiaries.

In January 2012, Network18 Group and Reliance Industries had joined hands for a multi-layered deal, under which the Mukesh Ambani-led corporate giant sold part of its interest in ETV channels and got access to content and distribution assets of the electronic media group. 

The share of TV18 Broadcast Ltd (Rs.32.70) is moving up with good volume today. The total volume of the shares traded in the NSE has already crossed 1.5 million and is nearing 2 million (Current Volume: 1,807,011). 

It is to be noted that Eenadu Television sold its non-Telugu businesses to the TV18 group, now controlled by Reliance Industries Ltd’s Mukesh Ambani.

In a significant development, Petrochemical major Reliance Industries Ltd, the parent company of TV18 Broadcast Ltd, had earlier beat street expectations with its September, 2015 quarter standalone net profit rising 3.8% sequentially to Rs.6,561 crore, driven by strong operational performance in refining business.

Meanwhile, a buy call was given to the Paid Group members, on Infinite Computer Solutions Ltd on Sunday, August 30, 2015 at Rs.168.70, for a short term target of Rs.200; the scrip touched Rs.196, intra-day.  

Join the Paid Services (both Web/Net and Mobile) to make maximum from the markets. To join any of the above services, kindly send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s@gmail.com. 

TV18 Broadcast Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.32.75

TV18 Broadcast Ltd. is an India-based television (TV) broadcast network. The Company offers telecommunication, broadcasting and information supply services. It operates through segments, including broadcasting and content, and film production and distribution. The broadcasting and content segment consists of television content and airtime sales. The Company offers news channels, such as CNBC-TV18, CNBC Awaaz, CNBC-TV18 Prime HD, CNN-IBN, IBN7, and IBN-Lokmat, a Marathi regional news channel. It also operates a joint venture with Viacom, Viacom18, which houses a portfolio of entertainment channels, such as Colors, Colors HD, Rishtey, MTV, MTV Indies, SONIC, Comedy Central, VH1, Nick, Nick Jr., Nick Teen and Viacom18, among others. It manages and broadcasts the channel, History TV18. It offers regional channels, such as ETV Urdu, ETV Rajasthan, ETV Bihar/Jharkhand and ETV MP/Chhattisgarh, among others. It also operates digital commerce properties, such as HomeShop18 and bookmyshow.com.
Media company Network18 Media and Investments Ltd, controlled by Reliance Industries Ltd, narrowed its loss to Rs.27.42 crore for the quarter-ended 30 September, benefiting from lower interest costs. The company posted a loss of Rs.36.46 crore in the same period last year. Revenue for the second quarter rose 8% to Rs.801.1 crore from Rs.744.8 crore.

Revenue from its subsidiary TV18 Broadcast Ltd, the company’s television and motion pictures business that also operates news channels CNN-IBN and CNBC TV18, rose 9.8% to Rs.608.5 crore from Rs.553.7 crore.

Colors Infinity, an English GEC channel, was launched during the current quarter, and incurred a loss of Rs.19 crore.

In H1 FY16, there was loss of Rs.19 crore on account of new ETV news channels; there was also a one-time expense of Rs.10 crore for rebranding ETV regional entertainment channels as Colors.

H1 FY15 profitability vis-à-vis H1 FY16 was significantly influenced by advertisement income on account of the General Elections and the Union Budget. 

This means from the following quarters we could see, some improvement in the share price of the group company TV18 Broadcast Ltd. The fall in interest rate, will also act as positive boost for the company.

It is to be noted that today, the 30 plus channels that constitute the TV18 network inform, entertain and engage with disparate audiences across genres and languages.

Moreover, according to the latest shareholding pattern, both the FIIs (from 8.84% to  8.88%) and DIIs (from  3.55% to 4.92%) have increased their stake in the company. Rekha Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 2.32%, while Reliance Capital Ltd holds 1.21% of the shares of the company.   

What must have attracted Rakesh Jhunjhunwala to invest in TV18 Broadcast is probably the following:

(i) Liberalized foreign investment (FDI) norms for the broadcasting sector pursuant to which the foreign investment limit has been raised from 49% to 74% in teleports (setting up up-linking HUBs/teleports), Direct to Home (DTH), Cable Networks (Multi-System-Operators operating at National or State or District level and undertaking upgradation of networks towards digitalization and addressability). Foreign investment up to 74% in mobile TV is also permissible;

(ii) Digitization of cable TV will benefit the broadcasters by boosting subscription revenues...

(iii) Reasonable valuations: A market cap of Rs.5000+ crores for a dominant player is not that exorbitant.


Meanwhile, BCG-CII report says India's media & entertainment sector is likely to expand nearly 6-fold in near future, with vast demand, growing market and tech boom...

Buy the scrip of TV18 Broadcast Ltd at the CMP of Rs..32.80, for a short term target of Rs.35-37, SL--Rs.31.70.

ZEEL, Network18, TV18 collective ad spends rise 10.8% to Rs.456 crore in Q2 

Oct 16,2015: The results of three of the top TV networks i.e. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. (ZEEL), Network18 and TV18 emerged recently. 

While ZEEL saw very good results as its profit after tax (PAT) margin rose by 17.8%, its advertising revenues grew by 35% to Rs.843.3 crore during the quarter. TV18’s quarterly operating revenues on a consolidated basis stood at Rs.608.5 crore in Q2 FY16, up 10% YoY from Rs.553.7 crore in Q2 FY15. 

Network18, on the other hand, posted a net loss of Rs.27.42 crore which is a decline in the net loss since the same quarter last year which was at Rs.36.46 crore. The total income from operations grew by 7.5% to Rs. 801.13 crore in Q2FY2016 from Rs.744.83 crore in Q2FY2015. 

During the last quarter, Q1FY2016, all the three broadcast networks had posted a double-digit growth in revenues. ZEEL’s total income from operations grew by 26.6 per cent in comparison with the corresponding quarter during the previous year. The income from operations grew in Q1FY2016 to Rs.1,339 crore from Rs.1,055 crore in Q1FY2015. 

Network18’s total income from operations grew by 12% since the corresponding quarter last year. The income from operations for Network18 in Q1FY2016 was Rs.786.1 crore and in Q1FY2015 it was Rs.699.7 crore. TV18 operating revenues grew by 13 per cent in comparison with Q1FY2015. 

In Q1FY2016 the operating revenues was Rs.596.7 crore in comparison with Rs.629.7 crore in Q1FY2015.

Ad spends matrix

The ad and promotion spends of ZEEL, Network18 and TV18 in Q2FY2016 grew by an average of 10.8% from the same quarter last year. The ad spends together accounted for Rs. 456.18 crore in Q2FY2016 from Rs.411.49 crore in Q2FY2015. ZEEL saw the maximum growth in ad spends from the same period last year. The network’s ad spends had grown by a high 64.6% to Rs.120.90 crore in Q2FY2016 from Rs.73.45 crore in Q2FY2015. TV18 however saw a smaller growth as its ad spends increased to Rs. 127.03 crore in Q2FY2016 from Rs.117.32 crore in Q2FY2015. 

Network18 on the other hand had seen a slight decline in its ad spends during this quarter in comparison to the corresponding quarter last year. Its ad spends in Q2FY2016 was Rs.208.25 crore which had declined from Rs.220.72 crore in Q2FY2015.

Lower growth of 2.8% in ad spends from last quarter

The ad spends of these three major networks however grew by a low 2.8% since the previous quarter Q1FY2016. The ad and promotion spends of ZEEL, Network18 and TV18 in Q1FY2016 amounted to Rs.443.7 crore. This has grown to Rs.456.18 crore during Q2FY2016. 

The reason for this is that, while ZEEL has had a major rise in the ad spends during this Q2 from Q1, Network18 and TV18 has seen a slide in ad spends during the quarter. ZEEL’s ad spends increased to Rs.120.90 crore in Q2FY2016 from Rs.96.6 crore in Q1FY2016. 

Network18’s ad spends declined marginally to Rs.208.25 crore in Q2FY2016 from Rs.211.2 crore in Q1FY2016. TV18’s ad spends too declined to Rs.127.03 crore in Q2FY2016 from Rs.135.9 crore in Q1FY2016.

Q1 comparison

ZEEL’s advertising and publicity expenses rose by a high double-digit in Q1FY2016 to 20% in comparison with Q1FY2015. Advertising and publicity expenses grew to Rs.96.6 crore in Q1FY2016 from Rs.80.3 crore in Q1 last year.

TV18’s marketing, distribution and promotion expenses increased significantly by 32.9% since Q1FY2015. The ad and marketing spends accounted to Rs.135.9 crore in Q1FY2016 from Rs.102.2 crore in Q1FY2015.

Network18’s ad and marketing spends grew by high single-digit of 9.8%. It increased to Rs.211.2 crore in Q1FY2016 from Rs.192.2 crore in Q1FY2015.

Courtesy: www.exchange4media.com

Solid comeback…Sensex shuts above 27,000 mark

Commenting on the same, Amar Ambani, Head of Research, IIFL, said, “LIC Housing Finance’s Q2 FY16 performance was stronger-than-expected with robust NII growth of 34% yoy and net profit increasing by 19% yoy. A combination of brisk loan growth, margin expansion and stable credit cost should drive significant earnings growth for the company over the next couple of years. RoA is estimated to improve materially from the current cyclical low of 1.3%. Valuation at 2.2x FY17E P/BV remains attractive in the above context.

October 15, 2015: After being under pressure for the past three trading session, the Indian equity market made a smart comeback. Indices closed near day’s high with the Nifty just managing to close near the 8,200 mark while Sensex closed above 27,000 levels. Today’s rally was led by auto stocks, followed by metals, oil & gas, capital goods and power stocks. Even the mid-cap and the small-cap stocks participated in today’s rally. Only the IT stocks ended with losses. TCS continued to decline as it missed street expectations. Wipro and Infy were among the other laggards.

Shares of LIC Housing gained by over 2.5% after announcing quarterly results. The Company posted a net profit of Rs. 4117.368 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2015 as compared to Rs. 3413.516 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2014.

Commenting on the same, Amar Ambani, Head of Research, IIFL, said, “LIC Housing Finance’s Q2 FY16 performance was stronger-than-expected with robust NII growth of 34% yoy and net profit increasing by 19% yoy. A combination of brisk loan growth, margin expansion and stable credit cost should drive significant earnings growth for the company over the next couple of years. RoA is estimated to improve materially from the current cyclical low of 1.3%. Valuation at 2.2x FY17E P/BV remains attractive in the above context.”

The BSE Sensex opened at 26,842, touched an intra-day high of 27,038 and low of 26,837. It finally ended with a gain of 230 points at 27,010.

The NSE Nifty opened at 8,134 hitting a high of 8,191 and low of 8,130, before signing off with a gain of 72 points or 0.8% at 8,180.

The India VIX (Volatility) index was down 3.1% to 17.17.

On the global front, China's Shanghai Composite index rallied 2.3% and Hang Seng closed up 2%.

In Europe, The FTSE 100 was marginally up 0.8%. On the other hand, DAX and the CAC 40 gained 1%.

The Indian currency was quoted at 64.93 per US dollar, up 25 paise from the previous trading session.

Zee Ent, Tata Motors, BPCL, Bank of Baroda, BHEL, Maruti Suzuki and Hero MotoCorp were among the gainers on NSE, whereas Cipla, M&M, Wipro, TCS, HUL, Tech Mahindra and NTPC were among the losers today.

Out of 1,748 stocks traded on the NSE, 649 declined and 857 advanced today.

Adani Enterprises rallied 14% at Rs.96. According to reports, the Australian environment ministry cleared Adani’s $7 billion Carmichael coal mine.

Mastek tumbled 18% at Rs. 144 after the company posted Q2 results. The net profit for the quarter ended stands at Rs. 2.6 crore, while sales for Q2 was at Rs 131.7 cr vs Rs 133.3 cr, down by 1.2 % QoQ.

Spicejet soared 7% at Rs. 41. The airline announced its very first red-eye flights within the domestic network on the Delhi – Bangalore route along with a new flight on Delhi – Nanded route, both commencing its operations on 2nd November 2015.

Cyient closed higher by 5% at Rs. 620. The company reported 9.2% rise in net profit at Rs. 98.5 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2015 as compared 30, 2015 as compared to Rs.90.2 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2014.

Lakshmi Vilas Bank jumped 3% to Rs. 91. The net profit for the quarter stands at Rs.44.8 crore. Gross NPA for the quarter stands at 1.89%, while Net NPA for Q2 was at 1.01%.

A total of 39 stocks registered a fresh 52-week high in trades today, while 6 stocks touched a new 52-week low on the NSE.

Alpa Laboratories Limited, Ashima Limited, Bafna Pharmaceuticals Limited, Balaji Telefilms, Bombay Rayon Fashions Limited, Can Fin Homes Limited, Cerebra Integrated Technologies Limited, Cyient Limited, Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries Limited, Dhampur Sugar Mills Limited, Dynacons Technologies Limited, Emmbi Industries Limited Filatex India Limited, Future Market Networks Limited, Gayatri Projects Limited, Godfrey Phillips India Limited, GP Petroleums Limited, Himatsingka Seide Limited, Hubtown Limited, ITD Cementation India Limited,JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Limited, Kajaria Ceramics Limited, KCP ,Lypsa Gems & Jewellery Limited, Mangalam Drugs And Organics Limited, Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited, NCL Industries Limited, Ortin Laboratories Limited,Palred Technologies Limited, Parenteral Drugs (India) Limited, Rama Steel Tubes Limited, Sakthi Sugars Limited, SKM Egg Products Export (India) Limited, SREI Infrastructure Finance Limited, Themis Medicare Limited, Triveni Engineering & Industries, Vikas GlobalOne Limited, Zee Entertainment Enterprises were some of the prominent stocks to log a fresh 52-week high.

Austral Coke & Projects, Birla Cotsyn (India), Cyber Media (India), KSS, The Peria Karamalai Tea & Produce Company, Visesh Infotecnics  were some of the notable stocks to record a new 52-week low.

Sensex top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Tata Motors  (up 8.2%), BHEL (up 3.2%), Maruti Suzuki (up 3%), Tata Steel  (up 2.8%) and Hero Motocorp (up 2.6%).

Sensex top losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Cipla  (down 1.2%), Wipro  (down 1%), Hindalco (down 0.9%), Hindustan Unilever (down 0.7%) and NTPC  (down 0.7%).

Nifty top gainers: The top gainers in the Nifty were Tata Motors  (up 8.2%), Bank Of Baroda (up 3.7%), BPCL (up 3.6%), BHEL (up 3.2%) and Maruti Suzuki (up 3%).

Nifty top losers: The top losers in the Nifty were Cipla  (down 1.2%), Mahindra & Mahindra (down 1%), Wipro  (down 1%), Hindalco (down 0.9%) and Hindustan Unilever (down 0.7%).

Mid-cap index gainers: The top gainers in the Mid-Cap index were Adani Enterprise (up 14.1%), Gitanjali Gems (up 6.5%), Godrej Industries (up 4.4%), Suzlon Energy (up 4%) and India Cements (up 3.8%).

Mid-cap index losers: The top losers in the Mid-Cap index were Karur Vysya Bank (down 3.7%), Piramal Enterprise (down 2.8%), Hindustan Zinc (down 2.6%), Tv18 Broadcast (down 2.2%) and Bharti Infratel (down 2.1%).

The BSE IT index: The top gainers in the IT sector were Mphasis (up 2.3%), Financial Tech (up 1.3%), Oracle Financial (up 1%), HCL Tech  (up 0.2%).

The top losers in the IT sector were Sasken Communication (down 1.7%), Wipro  (down 1%), TCS (down 0.6%), Tech Mahindra (down 0.5%).

The BSE Metals index: The top gainers in the metals sector were Tata Steel (up 2.8%), Jindal Steel (up 1.8%), Tata Metaliks (up 1.4%), Ispat Industries (up 1%) and JSW Steel  (up 0.8%).

The top losers in the metals sector were Monnet Ispat (down 1.6%), Sunflag Iron (down 1.5%), Bhushan Steel (down 1.5%), Jindal Stainless (down 1%) and Adhunik Metaliks (down 0.6%).

The BSE Oil & Gas Index: The top gainers in the oil & gas space were BPCL (up 3.6%), HPCL (up 2.8%), ONGC (up 2%), GSPL (up 1.2%) and IOC (up 0.8%).

The top losers in the oil & gas space were Hindustan Oil (down 1.5%), Great Offshore (down 1.4%), Essar Oil  (down 1.1%), Chennai Petroleum (down 0.9%) and MRPL (down 0.8%).

The BSE Auto Index: The top gainers in the auto space were Tata Motors  (up 8.2%), Maruti Suzuki (up 3%), Hero Motocorp (up 2.6%), Eicher Motors (up 0.7%) and Bajaj Auto  (up 0.5%).

The BSE Banking Index: The top gainers in the banking space were Bank Of Baroda (up 3.7%), Yes Bank  (up 2.8%), Canara Bank (up 2.8%), State Bank Of India  (up 1.9%) and Union Bank Of India (up 1.5%).

Courtesy: Indiainfoline.com

DO YOU KNOW?

Regarding Rolta India Ltd, the financial website: www.moneycontrol.com which is a part of the CNBC TV18 Group, said on February 24, 2015: 

"The company's trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS was at Rs.50.68 per share. (Dec, 2014). The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 2.96. The latest book value of the company is Rs.187.83 per share. At current value, the price-to-book value of the company was 0.8. The dividend yield of the company was 1.5 percent".

But the same website now puts the book value as Rs.122.95 on standalone basis, while on consolidated basis it is Rs.72.55. therefore, the question is: how can the book value of a reputed company (Rolta India Ltd is older than Infosys Ltd) change so much in matter of couple of months?

If you remember, in an earlier  occasion too, this website put a misleading book value of an A-group company Rasoya Proteins Ltd. When I pointed out the same here in this blog, they corrected the same. 

Moreover, this website, has a dubious and manipulative platform called Money Control Message board, where even the moderators takes part in the discussion, in the guise of boarders. These administrators of MMB, are often highly biased and delete messages, which goes against their thought processes. Not only that, they may even use slangs and highly objectionable words, when they appear in the MMB, in disguise (with A,B,C name) to take part in discussions; forcing you to react. 

It is an irony that some investors and traders base their trading decisions, pivoted on the inputs placed here---not to mention, though many burn their fingers in the process; but still they do not learn. 

JP Power great value buy, says Prakash Diwan 

CMP: Rs.10.55

Photo: Moneycontrol.com

Prakash Diwan of Altamount Capital Management is of the view that Jaiprakash Power is a great value buy at the current level.

Prakash Diwan of Altamount Capital Management told CNBC-TV18, "Keeping the steam on the energy side alive, Jaiprakash Power  is undergoing a lot of repair work. It has continuously had some over leverage issues. Two of the largest lenders for them, IDBI Bank  and ICICI Bank  have agreed to lend them significant quantity, Rs.5000 crore plus each and that is under the 5:25 scheme which was introduced for beleaguered power companies.

The interesting part was JP Power has moved down from the Rs.28-29 all the way close to Rs.10-12, it is under-owned completely today, everybody has kind of exited with despondency saying nothing is going to happen till they divest or do something about it. 

However, the repair work is finally going to help because it is timed well and the interest rate cycle coinciding with it." "If we look at the likes of a Ashok Leyland  or some of the infrastructure companies which have benefitted from any repair in terms of leverage, JP Power is also one of them. 

The only reason why it was not doing well was overleveraging. So, that out of the way could mean it could get re-rated but it will take time. It is a great value buy at this point in time. You need to be patient for just two quarters and it could start throwing up some very good numbers," he said.

Courtesy: Moneycontrol.com

Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited (HDIL):  Update

The scrip of HDIL was recommended last month in this blog around Rs.69-70 ranges. The stock made a 52-week  high of Rs.115.45 on 6 February, 2015.

Now, we can see the Financial Media, being flooded with recommendations from various sources. Meanwhile, some foreign funds have already taken stake in HDIL: .  

• Janus Investment fund on Feb. 5 bought 2.24 mln shares at 106.08 rupees/share, according to NSE data.
• GMO Emerging market fund on Jan. 28 bought 2.27 mln shares at 85.44 rupees/share - NSE.
• Platinum Asset Management on Jan. 15 bought 2.17 mln shares at 72.51 rupees/share raising its stake to 9.3 pct in the company from 8.8 pct earlier, according to Thomson Reuters data.
• Australia-based Platinum is the second largest shareholder in the company after promoters - BSE data.

Moreover, in a discussion with CNBC TV18, Kunal Bothra of LKP Securities said, he is of the view that HDIL may test Rs.140. Today (Sunday), recommendation came from a Gujarat based analyst, that the stock has formed a reverse HS-pattern on the Weekly Chart; giving a target of Rs.122 (cross over will create huge buying in this stock & take the stock to Rs.135---140 levels). 

However, I would suggest all of you to take the help of this rally, book complete profits this week around Rs.120-130 ranges (if it at all reaches there intra-day) and exit the counter for the short term. 

DO YOU KNOW?

Public sector banks in the country have returned profit of Rs.37,000 crore last year.

In this context, Harwinder Singh, general secretary of the All India Bank Officers' Confederation (AIBOC), which represents 85% of officers in public sector banks in the country said: 

"The banks' profitability would have been better if they were not made to implement schemes such as the Jan Dhan Yojana or were compelled to open more branches in rural areas. Such schemes bring considerable strain on human resources without generating any profit. Besides, bad loans of corporates add to banks' burden." 

He further said that profits suffer also due to the government's insistence on extracting as much dividend as possible to shore up its own finances. 

Meanwhile, Deven Choksey managing director, KR Choksey Shares & Securities, in an interview with CNBC TV18, on 6 February, 2015, said: "One may buy some large PSU banks on correction". 

According to Deven Choksey, this is the time to buy with a long-term view in mind. "Buy and hold for at least three years and make sure you hold some cash to pump in during market corrections," say Choksey.

It is pertinent to mention here that credit demand has paled to 10.5% against 14.5% a year ago. In the absence of demand for loans, banks have been parking their surplus funds in government bonds. Analysts estimate that banks have parked close to 28% of their deposits in government bonds, against the 22% mandated by the RBI.

The move to reduce rates may also enable banks to post better profits, thereby easing pressure on the government for capital. "Some banks may be under pressure to show profits. Higher earnings will enable banks to plough back profits to shore up their tier-I capital," said Vaibhav Agarwal, research analyst at Angel Broking.

UCO BANK LTD: BUY

On last Friday (06/02/15), UCO Bank Ltd was recommended to the Premium Group members at around Rs.70.50, for a target of Rs.75. 

UCO Bank Ltd came out with satisfactory set of numbers for the Q3FY15. The net profit fell marginally by 3.5% to Rs.303.59 crore in the third quarter of 2014-15 financial year. The bank had registered a net profit of Rs.314.53 crore in the same quarter of 2013-14.

However, the total income of UCO Bank Ltd, increased from Rs.4,919.04 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2013, to Rs.5,447.39 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2014. On the asset quality, bank's gross non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans increased to 6.5% from 5.2% year ago. Net NPAs too increased to 4.25 per cent of net advances, from 3.06 per cent in the year ago period. 

In an interview with  CNBC TV18, on February 05, 2015, Arun Kaul, CMD of UCO Bank Ltd said, with the cost of fund coming down, he is hopeful of seeing net interest margin (NIM) improvement by 10-20 basis points in the fourth quarter from the current 2.58%.  He further said that for the third quarter the incremental slippages were at Rs.2700 crore and 60% of the slippages were restructured assets..

We  can understand the September, 2014 quarter performance of the UCO Bank Ltd a little better, if we compare the sequential figures. The total income of the bank came at Rs.5447.39 Cr in Q3FY15 as against Rs.5256.62 Cr in Q2FY15. The PBDT increased to whooping Rs.1425.14 Cr as against Rs.1055.77 Cr Q2FY15. The net profit of the company almost TRIPLED to Rs.303.60 Cr as against Rs.103.54 Cr. The EPS of the company for Q3FY15 came out to be Rs.2.99 as against Rs.1.02 Cr in Q2FY15.  Even the 9MEPS, for the UCO Bank is a massive Rs.9.15. 

The scrip should be crossing Rs.100, within a couple of months, as the RBI further lowers the Repo rate or cuts the CRR. Therefore this is a turnaround case, which most in the Indian Financial Media, failed to identify.

Besides, there were recent media report that the Government is likely to infuse Rs.6,990 crore in nine public sector banks including SBI, Bank of Baroda (BoB), Punjab National Bank (PNB) for enhancing their capital and meeting global risk norms.  This news augurs well for the whole of PSU banking sector. 

Moreover, in India, with SARFAESI Act (The Securitization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002) in place, most of the bad loan can be recovered; depending upon how secure they are....!! 

Also, according to The Economic Times, January 16. 2015: State-run banks are going to benefit the most from the Reserve Bank of India's cut in interest rates by 25 basis points, as it would help them use the treasury gains to negate provision and write-offs of bad loans. The treasury gains of public sector banks alone are expected to be over Rs.2,000 crore as the value of their holdings in government bonds is likely to surge this quarter. A reduction in rate may also bring down the burden for debt-laden corporates, triggering a better investment climate.

Steel and mines ministry seeks pre-budget hike in import duty on finished steel

[Editor: Meanwhile, Rajat Bose of www.rajatkbose.com told CNBC-TV18, on January 23, 2015: "I have seen that any good news on Europe Tata Steel Ltd (Rs.402.65) tends to perform for valid reasons. In Tata Steel I would put a stoploss below Rs.395, on closing price basis I am looking at a price of Rs.418-421. Again this is a positional trade and the next target beyond Rs.421 would be Rs.429. Tata Steel could well be forming a bottom, getting a fillip with this new found momentum.” Yesterday, Ambareesh Baliga - Independent market expert told CNBC-TV18: "Tata Steel  is one stock where I see further movement of Rs.20-25 more from the current level". So, we could soon see a rally in the steel stocks]

Photo: Scrap Monster

KOLKATA, 22 Jan, 2015: The union steel and mines ministry has sought an immediate hike in import duty on finished steel to 10% from the present level of 5 to 7.5% and a withdrawal of duty on raw materials like, iron ore and coking coal in the light of surging steel imports. 

While these have been part of its Budget recommendations, the move gathered significance recently with the ministry shooting off an urgent letter to the finance ministry to implement a pre-Budget change in duty rates. 

The move, if implemented, will bring much needed cheer to domestic steelmakers grappling with rising imports and scare raw materials, the ministry's suggestion against lowering export duty on iron ore will disappoint the mining sector players. 

The Budget proposals were sent to the Finance Ministry as part of its budget recommendations late last month.

Steel imports grew by 58% during April-December 2014, even as exports fell by 6.6 % in the same period. In contrast, domestic steel consumption has shown a lacklustre growth of 1.4% in the first nine months of the current fiscal. 

The domestic steel industry has been urging the government to take measure to restrain steel imports, which have surged in the past months. A hike in import duty on finished steel is likely to check imports from China, which is facing an economic slowdown. 

However, a huge quantity of steel is also being imported from countries like Japan and Korea, due to the free trade agreements between India and these countries that allows preferential tariffs. 

On the raw material side, withdrawal of import duty on iron ore and coking coal will come as a huge benefit for domestic steelmakers who are facing problems in sourcing iron ore due to the mining problems. Rupee depreciation has also emerged as a threat for steel companies which have had to resort to imports of iron ore, in addition to coking coal imports. 

Removal of import duty will thus help Indian steel companies contain production costs and make them more competitive both in the domestic and export markets. 

However, if implemented, the ministry's suggestion will disappoint mining industry players who have been demanding a reduction in the 30% export duty on iron ore. 

Courtesy: The Economic Times