Showing posts sorted by date for query TV18. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query TV18. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Sunday, February 08, 2015

Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited (HDIL):  Update
The scrip of HDIL was recommended last month in this blog around Rs.69-70 ranges. The stock made a 52-week  high of Rs.115.45 on 6 February, 2015.

Now, we can see the Financial Media, being flooded with recommendations from various sources. Meanwhile, some foreign funds have already taken stake in HDIL: .  
  • Janus Investment fund on Feb. 5 bought 2.24 mln shares at 106.08 rupees/share, according to NSE data.
  • GMO Emerging market fund on Jan. 28 bought 2.27 mln shares at 85.44 rupees/share - NSE.
  • Platinum Asset Management on Jan. 15 bought 2.17 mln shares at 72.51 rupees/share raising its stake to 9.3 pct in the company from 8.8 pct earlier, according to Thomson Reuters data.
  • Australia-based Platinum is the second largest shareholder in the company after promoters - BSE data.
Moreover, in a discussion with CNBC TV18, Kunal Bothra of LKP Securities said, he is of the view that HDIL may test Rs.140. Today (Sunday), recommendation came from a Gujarat based analyst, that the stock has formed a reverse HS-pattern on the Weekly Chart; giving a target of Rs.122 (cross over will create huge buying in this stock & take the stock to Rs.135---140 levels). 

However, I would suggest all of you to take the help of this rally, book complete profits this week around Rs.120-130 ranges (if it at all reaches there intra-day) and exit the counter for the short term. 

Saturday, February 07, 2015

DO YOU KNOW?
Public sector banks in the country have returned profit of Rs.37,000 crore last year.

In this context, Harwinder Singh, general secretary of the All India Bank Officers' Confederation (AIBOC), which represents 85% of officers in public sector banks in the country said: 
"The banks' profitability would have been better if they were not made to implement schemes such as the Jan Dhan Yojana or were compelled to open more branches in rural areas. Such schemes bring considerable strain on human resources without generating any profit. Besides, bad loans of corporates add to banks' burden." 

He further said that profits suffer also due to the government's insistence on extracting as much dividend as possible to shore up its own finances. 

Meanwhile, Deven Choksey managing director, KR Choksey Shares & Securities, in an interview with CNBC TV18, on 6 February, 2015, said: "One may buy some large PSU banks on correction". 

According to Deven Choksey, this is the time to buy with a long-term view in mind. "Buy and hold for at least three years and make sure you hold some cash to pump in during market corrections," say Choksey.

It is pertinent to mention here that credit demand has paled to 10.5% against 14.5% a year ago. In the absence of demand for loans, banks have been parking their surplus funds in government bonds. Analysts estimate that banks have parked close to 28% of their deposits in government bonds, against the 22% mandated by the RBI.

The move to reduce rates may also enable banks to post better profits, thereby easing pressure on the government for capital. "Some banks may be under pressure to show profits. Higher earnings will enable banks to plough back profits to shore up their tier-I capital," said Vaibhav Agarwal, research analyst at Angel Broking.


UCO BANK LTD: BUY
On last Friday (06/02/15), UCO Bank Ltd was recommended to the Premium Group members at around Rs.70.50, for a target of Rs.75. 

UCO Bank Ltd came out with satisfactory set of numbers for the Q3FY15. The net profit fell marginally by 3.5% to Rs.303.59 crore in the third quarter of 2014-15 financial year. The bank had registered a net profit of Rs.314.53 crore in the same quarter of 2013-14.

However, the total income of UCO Bank Ltd, increased from Rs.4,919.04 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2013, to Rs.5,447.39 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2014. On the asset quality, bank's gross non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans increased to 6.5% from 5.2% year ago. Net NPAs too increased to 4.25 per cent of net advances, from 3.06 per cent in the year ago period. 


In an interview with  CNBC TV18, on February 05, 2015, Arun Kaul, CMD of UCO Bank Ltd said, with the cost of fund coming down, he is hopeful of seeing net interest margin (NIM) improvement by 10-20 basis points in the fourth quarter from the current 2.58%.  He further said that for the third quarter the incremental slippages were at Rs.2700 crore and 60% of the slippages were restructured assets..

We  can understand the September, 2014 quarter performance of the UCO Bank Ltd a little better, if we compare the sequential figures. The total income of the bank came at Rs.5447.39 Cr in Q3FY15 as against Rs.5256.62 Cr in Q2FY15. The PBDT increased to whooping Rs.1425.14 Cr as against Rs.1055.77 Cr Q2FY15. The net profit of the company almost TRIPLED to Rs.303.60 Cr as against Rs.103.54 Cr. The EPS of the company for Q3FY15 came out to be Rs.2.99 as against Rs.1.02 Cr in Q2FY15.  Even the 9MEPS, for the UCO Bank is a massive Rs.9.15. 

The scrip should be crossing Rs.100, within a couple of months, as the RBI further lowers the Repo rate or cuts the CRR. Therefore this is a turnaround case, which most in the Indian Financial Media, failed to identify.

Besides, there were recent media report that the Government is likely to infuse Rs.6,990 crore in nine public sector banks including SBI, Bank of Baroda (BoB), Punjab National Bank (PNB) for enhancing their capital and meeting global risk norms.  This news augurs well for the whole of PSU banking sector. 

Moreover, in India, with SARFAESI Act (The Securitization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002) in place, most of the bad loan can be recovered; depending upon how secure they are....!! 

Also, according to The Economic Times, January 16. 2015: State-run banks are going to benefit the most from the Reserve Bank of India's cut in interest rates by 25 basis points, as it would help them use the treasury gains to negate provision and write-offs of bad loans. The treasury gains of public sector banks alone are expected to be over Rs.2,000 crore as the value of their holdings in government bonds is likely to surge this quarter. A reduction in rate may also bring down the burden for debt-laden corporates, triggering a better investment climate.

Friday, January 23, 2015

Steel and mines ministry seeks pre-budget hike in import duty on finished steel
[Editor: Meanwhile, Rajat Bose of www.rajatkbose.com told CNBC-TV18, on January 23, 2015: "I have seen that any good news on Europe Tata Steel Ltd (Rs.402.65) tends to perform for valid reasons. In Tata Steel I would put a stoploss below Rs.395, on closing price basis I am looking at a price of Rs.418-421. Again this is a positional trade and the next target beyond Rs.421 would be Rs.429. Tata Steel could well be forming a bottom, getting a fillip with this new found momentum.” Yesterday, Ambareesh Baliga - Independent market expert told CNBC-TV18: "Tata Steel  is one stock where I see further movement of Rs.20-25 more from the current level". So, we could soon see a rally in the steel stocks]
Photo: Scrap Monster
KOLKATA, 22 Jan, 2015: The union steel and mines ministry has sought an immediate hike in import duty on finished steel to 10% from the present level of 5 to 7.5% and a withdrawal of duty on raw materials like, iron ore and coking coal in the light of surging steel imports. 

While these have been part of its Budget recommendations, the move gathered significance recently with the ministry shooting off an urgent letter to the finance ministry to implement a pre-Budget change in duty rates. 

The move, if implemented, will bring much needed cheer to domestic steelmakers grappling with rising imports and scare raw materials, the ministry's suggestion against lowering export duty on iron ore will disappoint the mining sector players. 

The Budget proposals were sent to the Finance Ministry as part of its budget recommendations late last month.

Steel imports grew by 58% during April-December 2014, even as exports fell by 6.6 % in the same period. In contrast, domestic steel consumption has shown a lacklustre growth of 1.4% in the first nine months of the current fiscal. 

The domestic steel industry has been urging the government to take measure to restrain steel imports, which have surged in the past months. A hike in import duty on finished steel is likely to check imports from China, which is facing an economic slowdown. 

However, a huge quantity of steel is also being imported from countries like Japan and Korea, due to the free trade agreements between India and these countries that allows preferential tariffs. 

On the raw material side, withdrawal of import duty on iron ore and coking coal will come as a huge benefit for domestic steelmakers who are facing problems in sourcing iron ore due to the mining problems. Rupee depreciation has also emerged as a threat for steel companies which have had to resort to imports of iron ore, in addition to coking coal imports. 

Removal of import duty will thus help Indian steel companies contain production costs and make them more competitive both in the domestic and export markets. 

However, if implemented, the ministry's suggestion will disappoint mining industry players who have been demanding a reduction in the 30% export duty on iron ore. 

Courtesy: The Economic Times
WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd reommended yesterday at around Rs.48.95, today touched Rs.51.20, before closing at Rs.50.50. The stock will give handsome returns to the investors. Please have patience, till it starts to get benefits out of the expansion.
Rohit Ferro Tech Ltd today closed at Rs.7.90, due to weak outlook of the steel sector in the international market and also due to the domestic problems. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, on 22 January, 2015, Kalyani Steel MD RK Goyal said: 
"Just for your information, particularly long products import has gone up by 550 percent in Q3 and in terms of volume it has gone up to the level of 450,000 tonnes in last quarter. On annualised basis it becomes 1.8 million tonne against the total demand of the industry around 4 million tonne and if this continues, I think the local industry will be wiped off. Major imports are coming from China besides from various other countries including Europe, including Russia. The reason is that the economic situation or the slowdown in the growth in China -- since local demand in China is going down, they are trying to find out avenues to export that material and India is a good ground for them where there are practically no restrictions and a reasonable size market for them.The government should introduce some sort of steep import duty so as to deter dumping of products from countries such as China".
Meanwhile, China's apparent crude steel consumption fell (3.4 percent from a year ago to 738.3 million tonnes in 2014), for the first time in three decades in 2014, data from an industry association showed, a further indication of how the country's economic slowdown is hurting industrial demand. Some analysts are of the view that a decline in the use of steel in China, which is both the top consumer and producer of the alloy, will dent iron ore prices that have already been roiled by a global oversupply. Spot rates of the steelmaking ingredient are currently mired near a 5-1/2 year low $65.60 per tonne. It is interesting to note that, struggling with weak demand as economic growth slowed to 7.4 percent in 2014, the lowest since 1990, Chinese steel producers turned to exports, which according to CISA rose 64.5 percent to the equivalent of 84.4 million tonnes of crude steel last year. Overseas sales got a further boost last year as exporters took advantage of a loophole that allowed them to gain tax rebates by adding tiny quantities of boron to their products. However, that loophole has since been closed. CISA said in a report published on its website that around 40 percent of exports in 2014 contained boron, and the decision to cancel the rebate this year will have "a certain impact" on the domestic market. Also, amendments to China's Environmental Protection Law, which came into effect on Jan. 1, 2015, will raise production costs in an industry which is already trying to survive on profit margins of less than 1 percent in 2014. Thus, these two points (on China) are definitely going to have positive effects on the Indian domestic steel sector as well. Moreover, some analysts, warned of a potential squeeze higher, with the market now positioned with the biggest net short since 2008 across the LME and CME Group Inc's Comex contract combined. "With the market oversold and heavily short, the likelihood of a short term squeeze is rising. We would view any further bouts of weakness as prime buying opportunities," said ANZ in a report. 
Besides, stocks and bonds surged worldwide and the euro sank to an 11- year-low on Friday, the day after the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing plan. Oil rose following the death of the king of Saudi Arabia. European shares were on course for their strongest week since late 2011 and emerging markets headed for their best in almost 10 months. Italian, Spanish bond yields dropped to record lows. Purchasing manager surveys showed the euro zone economy began 2015 in better shape than expected, although companies are still cutting prices.  
The ECB announced on Thursday a programme to buy government bonds, which will pump roughly a trillion euros into the stagnant euro zone economy. Although QE was widely anticipated, the size of the programme was not - markets had already largely priced in QE at about 500 billion euros in total so the package of 1.14 trillion euros easily outpaced market expectations. Now, though most of the analysts are of the view that a strong dollar is negative for the metal sector, but what I feel is that, easy money from the European QE, would soon start to enter the metal (Commodities) sector, sparking the fear of inflation--i.e, this move is likely to  inflate the prices of commodities, as we saw last time. Therefore, I feel we are probably sitting, at the end of a downturn in the metal sector. So, according to my view one should start accumulating steel (and other metal) stocks on any bounce. In another development, the latest producer manufacturing index(PMI) came in better-than-expected from China. Newly released numbers saw China's PMI come in at 49.8, up from 49.6 in December. Japan's PMI was up as well, coming in at 52.1, 0.1 percentage point higher than last month's 52. Later today, a slew of PMI numbers are scheduled for release, including the ones from France, Germany, Eurozone and US. In the latter, existing home sales and the CB leading index will be watched as well. 
Jindal Saw Ltd recommended earlier and also today, rose to Rs.86.90, intra-day before closing at Rs.84.60. The company as mentioned earlier came out with decent set of numbers for the Q3FY15. In Q2FY15, too, the results were impressive. The company is in a commanding position in India's tubular market, being the undisputed leader with turnover in excess of Rs.7500 crores. It is one of the country's largest producers of SAW pipes, which is widely used in the energy sector for the transportation of oil and gas. The investors are suggested to accumulate the same on all declines for a short term target of Rs.91-92, within this week. 
Today, as expected Veer Energy and Infrastructure Ltd corrected to Rs.4.15, intra-day before closing at Rs.4.18. I had mentioned a couple of days back in this blog, to be cautious to on the scrip as it nearly touched my target of Rs.5 (rose to Rs.4.98 intra-day). I will tell you when to enter the counter once again. For the time being the scrip could. fall to Rs.3.70. I had today, asked all the Premium Members to book profits in the counter. 
Nifty today closed at 8,835.60 up 74.20 points. Nifty has appreciated around 780 points or ~9% from the low of 8065 within a few trading sessions. Bulls are in full command of the affairs, in Dalal Street. Moreover, the point that Nifty is in a “Resistance Free Zone”, gives further ammunition to the bulls. The traders are suggested to buy stocks from both the large and small / mid-cap spaces. 

Monday, December 29, 2014

Domestic steel industry is not getting adequate iron ore to produce steel: Seshagiri Rao, JSW Steel
Another Bollywood "Dumbo"
[Editor: The government of India should give special focus on the mining and construction sectors, which are the backbones of our economy, but are in an utter mess. It seems the NDA at the moment is more interested in lucrative defense deals. Now they are hell bent to pass the insurance bill, for reasons best known to them. If even after forming a stable government at the centre, the NDA fails to push the Indian GDP up, then God help them. Prime Minister, Narendra Modi talks more than what he is actually capable of doing. He has already successfully diverted the attention of the general public from the key issues, by bringing in "Swachch Bharat" campaign. The point is that when there is no clean water to drink, even in the slums of Mumbai (Bombay), from where will people get water to clean their premises too often? Therefore, the focus should be on poverty alleviation, rather than spending time on superfluous issues. A MAN is a BUNDLE of HABITS. So, unless this changes, nothing much will work. In Mumbai (Bombay), I find people spitting here and there on the streets. Some even use the streets as their public toilets. When this cannot be stopped even in such elite societies, then we can safely forget about cleaning the whole of India--as of now it is simply hot air. However, a section of Indians probably find it "Prestigious" to rally on everything Narendra Modi says---typical Indian mind-set]
December 20, 2014: JSW Steel is India's leading private sector steel producer having $9 billion global conglomerate spread over six locations in India and a footprint that extends to the US, South America and Africa. Recently, the company was in news as they plan to build a 10 million tonne greenfield steel plant at Salboni in West Bengal. Currently, the project is on hold as the ban on iron ore mining and cancellation of coal mines has brought in severe uncertainty to raw material linkages for the project.

The stock of the company is trading flat. In an interview with CNBC TV18, Seshagiri Rao, Joint MD and Group CFO, JSW Steel, said that one of the reasons for the stable growth is the currency devaluation which has been putting pressure on global steel prices and adding to the Chinese slowdown. Thus, the countries which are export dependent are producing more steel and looking for markets – that is also supported by the devaluation of those currencies and that is why in this quarter we have seen the prices dropping internationally.

Explaining it in detail, he said, "We see little stability in the prices because scrap prices have started looking up. Earlier, it was below USD 300 and now we see it rise to USD 320 per tonne. Iron ore is around USD 70 and coking coal is at USD 110, which are all indications that the stability is there in the prices internationally. So correction already happened in the last two-and-a-half months".

Further, drawing attention over the mining scenario in India and decisions taken by the State and Centre government, he commented, "As far as the iron ore overall production relative to the demand is concerned, there is a gap. There is a lot of hope that more production will come into operation either in Odisha or Karnataka but we are not seeing anything happening on the ground. That is why the imports of iron ore are increasing into India, so in this year at least 10-15 million tonne of iron ore imports are happening.The major concern today is the domestic steel industry is not able to get adequate iron ore to produce steel, so we are importing steel into India because of lack of iron ore in India."

Courtesy: Indiainfoline

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Buy Hindalco Industries Ltd: Sudarshan Sukhani
Now another chartist: Sudarshan Sukhani has also given a buy on Hindalco Industries Ltd after Prakash Gaba, according to www.moneycontrol.com.

Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com told CNBC-TV18, " Hindalco Industries  inspite of the bad news was moving in a trading range and it is actually suggesting that it is willing to go higher, cross that boundary and actually begin an uptrend. I don’t know how that will happen if the Nifty decides to go down. Hindalco independently looks quite attractive as a buy." 

HINDALCO'S operations around the world:

  • Novelis is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia and operates 25 manufacturing facilities in nine countries on four continents, with nearly 11,000 employees. Novelis is the world’s largest rolled aluminum producer in terms of volume shipped, and the largest purchaser of aluminum as well. 
  • Aditya Birla Minerals is based in Perth, West Australia, and conducts its activities at the Birla Nifty Copper Operation in the Great Sandy Desert, WA and the Mt Gordon Copper Operation located in the Mt Isa Block in Queensland. 
  • Hindalco-Almex operates a first-of-its-kind facility in India, which is exclusively devoted to high-performance aluminium alloys. HAAL is located at Shendra, Aurangabad in western India, around 350 km from Mumbai.
At 10:47 hrs Hindalco Industries was quoting at Rs 156.80, up Rs 1.95, or 1.26 percent. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 157.60 and an intraday low of Rs 154.60.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd: Result Analysis
Please Click on the  Chart to Expand
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd, the engineering and infrastructure unit of the debt-laden Jaypee group, on Wednesday reported a net loss of Rs.106.5 crore for the September 2014 quarter, at a time when the promoters are actively seeking to pare debt. The company had posted a profit of Rs.67.67 crore in the corresponding quarter a year ago. 

However, if we look carefully at the results, then we would find that in Q2FY14, the other income component was Rs.123.58 Cr as compared to Rs.45.70 Cr only in Q2FY15. This gives a positive delta of Rs.77.88 Cr, in the previous-year quarter as compared to Q2FY15. Or in other words, this factor was missing in the results of Q2FY15, which is why the loss of Rs.100 plus came so easily. Also, the finance cost increased only by Rs.3.78 Cr in September, 2014 quarter as compared to June, 2014 quarter. 

Revenues however dropped by 15% to Rs.2,664.12 crore in the reporting quarter, due to sequential decline in cement and construction business (on seasonal nature of the business), according to analysts. Finance costs also rose 21% to Rs.793.29 crore compared to a year ago, but very less as compared sequentially. 

The QFY14 results show that the bottomline of the company is along the expected lines according to the average of estimates of analysts polled by CNBC-TV18 (Rs.100 Cr loss) and much better as per analysts polled by NDTV (standalone net loss of Rs.124 crore).

The group is trying to pare its debt of around Rs.60,000 crore by selling assets. On 25 September, the company announced the sale of three hydropower projects run by Jaiprakash Power Ventures to JSW Energy Ltd. Besides, there were recent media reports that, Aditya Birla group firm Ultratech Cement is believed to be looking at possible acquisition of Jaypee Group's three cement plants in Madhya Pradesh in a deal that could be worth about Rs.5,500-6,000 crore.

It is to be noted that the company has an asset base of Rs.36,868.26 Cr, as against its market cap of only Rs.8,039.27 Cr and FY14 earning of Rs.13,327.02 Cr. The book value of the shares of Jaiprakash Associates Ltd (Rs.33.05) is Rs.56.69.

The scrip seems to have factored-in, the current set of fundamentals and hence is not expected to go down too much from Rs.33.05.

Monday, September 29, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Shares of Financial Technologies Ltd (Rs.228.30) surged to Rs.235, intra-day after the company stated that it concluded renegotiation of technology supply agreement with Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). There was a big crash in it's share price after the NSEL scam. The stock, should be crossing Rs.300 in the coming days. In other words, Financial Technologies should come back to focus again after a re-agreement with MCX for technology supply.
IVRCL Ltd (Rs.15.85) was recommended today as a fresh buy at Rs.15-15.50, for a target of Rs.21. The scrip surged to Rs.16.30, intra-day. The company has an order book of  more than Rs.20, 000 crore and it is implementing the CDR package. 
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Eng Ltd today closed flat at Rs.38.40. According to the media reports, the government of India is mulling various options, which include lower bank interest rates, infrastructure status to shipyards, a separate fund and also special subsidy to shipbuilders who source raw material and parts locally. It is a company whose promoter is Nikhil Prataprai Gandhi, a person having very good rapport with Senior Ambani. Moreover, Nikhil Gandhi, chairman, Pipavav Shipyard told CNBC-TV18 at the beginning of this year, that the private ship-builder is in talks with a French company for a strategic stake sale. He says this partnership is primarily aimed to bring in the technological know-how and proprietary knowledge of military hardware into the country. The promoter stake after the deal might come down to 41% from 45% initially. SAAB AB of Sweden has already a stake in Pipavav. SAAB AB and the new partner, if the stake sale goes through, will together own 15 percent in the company, says Gandhi. The company has an order book of around Rs.12, 000 crore and is trading near the 52-week low price of Rs.30.55, hence the downside is limited. Besides, Rakesh Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala and Rekha Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, respectively holds 2.11% and 1.30% stake in the company. Also,  the uncertainty over the fate of subsidy payments for shipbuilders such as Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Co. Ltd, ABG Shipyard Ltd and Bharati Shipyard Ltd could lift soon, with the government looking to extend the payment timeline for a scheme which ended seven years ago.
Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.65.50) which got badly hammered, was recommended today at Rs.65, just a month ahead of Diwali. This is a sure shot recommendation for  a target of Rs.79-80, in the short term. Shares of jewellery makers should rise on expectations of pick up in sales in the festive season. Meanwhile, according to the Business Standard, September 3, 2014:  Amid expectations of a turnaround in global jewellery purchases and a revival in ornament exports, Indian diamond processors participated aggressively in the De Beers’ sightholders contract registration to ensure supply of rough diamonds till 2018. “The basic raw materials remain the same. Exports cannot decline beyond a point. Therefore, raw material surety is required. De Beers processes only 40-42 per cent of the rough diamonds they mine and, hence, Indian processors should take a long-term view,” said Sabyasachi Ray, executive director, GJEPC. Mehul Choksi, managing director of Gitanjali Gems, a De Beers’ sightholder, said the current fall in exports was a seasonal trend. “Exports decline in the July-August period. But so far, this year has been good. We anticipate the economic recovery in the US will yield positive results on jewellery exports,” he said. The US accounts for 38 per cent of global jewellery consumption.
My earlier recommended Genera Agri Ltd today rose by more than 15% and closed at Rs.8.24. The intra-day high for the scrip was Rs.8.48.
The Nifty has closed with a weekly loss of 152 points in the last week. On the other hand, the level of 7850 showed buying interest on Friday, from where the Nifty reversed as was expected. Today, the small cap index was strong since the start. 

Thursday, July 10, 2014

India Budget 2014: Positive measures will spur demand for metal and mining companies
 Government's initiatives will trigger investment cycle and give a new lease of life to such firms
Jul 10, 2014: Rising costs of raw material, delays in project execution and subdued demand have proved detrimental to metal and mining companies in the country. However, the Narendra Modi government’s maiden Union Budget gives them hope. The hope doesn’t necessarily come from budget measures announced specifically for the sectors, but from the positive ring around steps taken to prop up investment in the country.

“The government’s investments and measures will trigger investment cycle. He (Finance Minister Arun Jaitley) has facilitated ease with which business can be done and has given clarity on the tax regime,” Koushik Chatterjee, Group CFO, Tata Steel told CNBC-TV18.

Demand for steel grew by a mere 0.6 percent in 2013-14, the lowest in four years. The demand had gone up by over 3 percent a year earlier.

“There are a lot of measures in the budget, ranging from setting of new ‘smart cities’ to redevelopment of airports that will spur demand for metal companies. Also, measures like new ports and tax rationalisation of different grades of coals will improve logistics and ease the business atmosphere,” said SV Sukumar, Head of Operations and Supply Chain, KPMG.

Though the Union Budget was largely silent on major measures, steel companies will see some relief as basic custom duty on steel grade limestone and dolomite has been reduced from 5 percent to 2.5 percent. The two are used in steelmaking.

Tata Steel and its peers like JSW Steel and Jindal Stainless will also benefit from the increase in basic custom duty of imported flat-rolled products of stainless steel from 5 percent to 7.5 percent. “The domestic stainless steel industry is presently suffering from severe under-utilisation of capacity,” the Finance Minister reasoned. “We welcome the step,” said NC Mathur, President, Stainless Steel Development Association.

But the biggest concern for these companies has been access to raw material – iron ore and coal. JSW Steel, owned by Sajjan Jindal, recently announced that it will import 6 million tons of iron ore - an irony given India’s ample resources of the raw material.

Jaitley acknowledged this concern. “It is my government’s intention to encourage investment in mining sector and promote sustainable mining practices to adequately meet the requirements of industry without sacrificing environmental concerns. The current impasse in mining sector, including iron ore mining, will be resolved expeditiously. Changes, if necessary, in the MMDR Act, 1957, would be introduced to facilitate this,” he said. 

“We have been making presentations to the minister. We will have to wait and see what changes are brought in,” said RK Sharma, Secretary General, Federation of Indian Mineral Industries, or FIMI.

Sharma though criticised the government’s move to increase export duty on bauxite from 10 percent to 20 percent. “At present, most of the bauxite that is exported from India comes from Gujarat and Maharashtra. These are not required in India as these are refractory grade bauxite and are not used by the aluminium makers in the country,” he says. “Now, these bauxite reserves will lie around unused.”

In a move that was expected but one that might increase costs of metal companies and their customers, Jaitley has given the go-ahead for the revision of royalty on minerals. Mining companies have to pay royalty to state governments. In iron ore itself, the rate is expected to be increased to 15 percent from 10 percent of the output.

The S&P BSE Metal Index on Sensex was up 1.65 percent, outperforming the Sensex that was down 0.28 percent at 3.40pm.

Courtesy: Forbes India

Friday, March 21, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
The Nifty as expected did not move anywhere today hovering between 6485.70 and 6522.90 during the whole trading session finally settling at 6493.20. The markets are still confused as to who is going to form the next government and this would continue till the NDA comes up with some solid strategy, which shows that they would be in the charge of the affairs in the coming elections. However the action would be seen mostly in the small and mid cap space, some of which are still near their 52-week lows. Chartically speaking, the inability of Bulls to cross 6565--6570 ranges and the Nifty closing below 6500 is a sign of weakness. The longs should therefore be strictly avoided and risk taking traders can even go for shorts taking 6570 as the SL. 
As expected Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd today moved to Rs.26.70 before closing at Rs.26.50 (21 DSMA) in the BSE, just near the day's high. Also, this is above its 21 DEMA which is placed at Rs.26.13. The Shree Ganesh, in 2012 forayed into solar power generation by acquiring 55% stake in two companies — Alex Astral Power Ltd and Alex Spectrum Radiation Ltd — owned by the Kolkata-based Sureka Group, at an estimated investment of nearly Rs.100 crore. The solar power generation business was earning revenues and generating profits. The companies had 30 MW assets already commissioned as of April 2012. The company also commissioned two 25 MW solar power projects in Odisha and Gujarat, and a 5 MW solar power project in Rajasthan in 2012. It is also into Gold Loan and is already getting benefits from the RBI action a couple of months back. The outlook of the scrip looks bullish and we can hope for a target of Rs.41-42, in the next few trading weeks, as the government of India takes a series of measures to relax the gold import norms. 
TV18 Broadcast Ltd which was recommended in this blog a few weeks back at around Rs.22, today touched The first target of Rs.26. The scrip closed at Rs.25.75. 
Allied Digital Services Ltd today hit the upper circuits before cooling down at Rs.12.50. It seems the promoters will come out with positive results for Q4FY14. Hope from  now on, they will spare something for the shareholders after sucking the company to the hilt during the last few years. 

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Today a cautious stance was indicated in the PAID BLOG, especially when the key economic data was scheduled to be released post market hours. Yesterday, the market witnessed profit booking and Nifty (Spot) closed with a loss of 25 points. A breakout above 6400 has put Nifty (Spot) into a new groove with no resistance zone. However, inability to cross 6560 even in the 3rd day in succession shows high resistance at this level. The traders need to watch this level closely and take decisions accordingly. The Paid Group members, who shorted the Nifty corresponding to the spot rate of  6523, must have  made some money today intra-day, as Nifty closed at 6516.90. Today, though FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs.864.35 Cr, the DIIs (don't know from where they get so much to sell since months) were net sellers of Rs.821.97 in Indian equities. 
TV18 Broadcast Ltd (Rs.23.05) which was recommend some days back, today closed above the psychological level of Rs.23, which is positive. The investors in the share should keep it holding. 
VIP Industries Ltd which was recommended some months back, here in this blog (if you can remember) at around Rs.45-48 today touched Rs.78.30, before closing at Rs.77.30. The scrip has given a clear break out and the next level seems to be Rs.86.87. Those who are still holding can continue to do with a SL of Rs.73.70. 
Today, the scrip of Allied Digital Services Ltd touched Rs.13, before closing at Rs.12.74, up 3.68%. Hope Nitin Shah & Co, will start rewarding the shareholding, after sucking the company in collusion with his pet-group; since the last couple of years. What is surprising is that: he can take his monthly salaries and pay his employees, but he is  not able to do the same in case of Shareholders who have invested money in this company---what an irony. But then what to comment on such Cheap Persons!

Monday, March 10, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
My earlier recommended HCL Infosystems Ltd today hit the 20% buyer freeze, to close at Rs.34.10. However the scrip has a stiff resistance around Rs.34.50,  and traders should see if it is able to cross this level or not in the next few trading sessions. 
There could be some good news on the anvil in case of Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd (Rs.26.35). The traders are unnecessarily too much reacting to the rise in import duty. They should note that any rise in inputs cost can be passed on to the end consumer, however, the government needs to give some relaxations in the import restrictions. Therefore, there is no reason to assume that the Jewelry companies would  not do well in future. However, till the import restrictions are there, there could be some effects on the top and bottomlines of the companies who are into Gems and Jewelry space. Buy is suggested in the scrip of Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd. 
BHEL recommended at Rs.148 today touched Rs.191.25 before cooling down at Rs.187.90. Those who said that BHEL will never cross Rs.170 has mud on their faces. 
TV18 Broadcast Ltd today touched Rs.23.40,  before cooling down at Rs.22.70. The scrip needs to clear the resistance zone of Rs.22.90-23, before we can see further  upmove. However, for the medium to long term perspective, this is an excellent company.
Allied Digital Services Ltd (Rs.12.45), in December, 2013 announced that, it received the Certificate of Excellence from India Inc Innovative 100, for smart innovation at Radisson Hotel, New Delhi on 20th December 2013. The company said, "We are proud of our ADiTaaS platform (developed in-house & is innovative, one of its kind IT tool) for which we received the Certificate of Excellence'. But the irony is that, since the last few years, a treacherous management led by Nitin Shah & Co, is probably eating away all the profits of the company without giving any share to the shareholders. The promoters are getting their salaries and so are the employees, but SHAREHOLDERS? Oh ho, they are "Pariah" now.....the outcast! Moreover, the company suddenly, reported a consolidated net loss of Rs.2.14 crore for the quarter ended Dec '13. Other income for the quarter was Rs 1.54 crore. Therefore, I feel it is not the company which is the problem but like Glodyne Technoserve Ltd it is a group of dishonest promoters, who are moving about scot-free, due to the blessings from the regulator (who are the real problems). Something should be done to chuck these UNHOLY guys out so that the shareholders gets their due share, from the progress of the company---but will the black sheep hear? Anyway, I hope in the March, 2014 quarter, the company would come up with profit, in order to honour its commitment mentioned in the annual report. When most of the IT stocks are moving up, the share of Allied Digital Services Ltd is moving DOWN. The promoters have no ethics. Unfortunate!! 

Saturday, March 08, 2014

TV18 Broadcast: Ready To Surge Ahead
CMP: Rs.22.90
TV18 Broadcast Ltd's consolidated net profit more than doubled (142% from a year earlier) to Rs.51.67 crore in the third quarter ended December 31, 2013, on a fall in programming cost and marketing, distribution and promotional expenses and as its consolidated revenue increased.

The company had posted a consolidated profit of Rs.21.27 crore in the same period a year earlier.

Total income from operations rose to Rs.525.47 crore from Rs.512.43 crore, the company said in a BSE filing. Finance costs declined 46% to Rs.17.1 crore from Rs.31.45 crore. Expenses during the quarter declined to Rs.460.12 crore from Rs.474.99 crore.


The company reported its highest ever quarterly Operating Profit (EBITDA) at Rs.77.5 crore, up 61 per cent year-on-year with both the entertainment and news businesses turning in strong quarters.

On a consolidated basis, the company’s advertising revenues grew 3% year-on-year. While the news and infotainment advertising environment continued to be sluggish, entertainment led by Colors and MTV delivered strong double digit advertising growth.

Its net distribution Income continued its steady growth at Rs.43.6 crore, a rise of 145% year on year.



Entertainment operations at Viacom18, led by Colors delivered a healthy performance even as Motion Pictures saw losses in this quarter. Infotainment operations at A+E Networks I TV18 broke into positive territory and IndiaCast continued on its robust growth trajectory.

Chartically speaking, the scrip is trading above its 100D and 200D SMA and EMA. The MACD and other parameters are more or less in the buy mode. The scrip is expected to give decent return going from here; the immediate target for the scrip seems to be Rs.25. 

Friday, March 07, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
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Hindalco Industries Ltd recommended around Rs.98, today touched Rs.125.65, before closing at Rs.124.65. The scrip reached all its target in just a matter of few days. 
There is no stopping of Tulip Telecom Ltd as the scrip hit another buyer freeze at Rs.5.40 in the BSE. The scrip is hitting continuous upper circuits, after it was recommended a buy only some days back. 
The Target of 6500 for Nifty_27March_Future given yesterday, was achieved today. Now with FIIs, today turning net buyers to the tune of Rs.2577.44 Cr, the bullishness of Nifty continues.  Join the Paid Service to get the latest market  updates. 
Entegra Ltd today closed Rs.3.65 up 4.29%. The scrip was strongly recommended in this group as a potential multi-bagger. The company is into renewable energy and is from the reputed S Kumar group. 
BHEL recommended around Rs.149, only some days back, today touched Rs.186, before closing at Rs.183.70. It has achieved all the targets. 
TV18 Broadcast Ltd recommendd around Rs.22, last week to the Paid Groups today touched Rs.23.15, intra-day before closing at Rs.22.95. The scrip would be moving towards the next target of XXX (For the Paid Groups only) in the next few trading sessions. 
The Gold stocks retreated today, after the Finance Minister, P Chidambaram made it clear that any decision on relaxing import curbs would be taken only after the final current account deficit (CAD) number is firmed up. It is to be noted that the official CAD number comes usually after a two-month lag. The number for October-December quarter was announced on March 5, 2014. It is estimated that the final number for 2013-14 will come out in June. It implies any decision on relaxing import curbs, such as lowering import duty or removing the ‘80:20 scheme’ may have to wait. Bullion traders have said that the curbs have jeopardized the demand and supply chain and they are going in for a strike on March, 10, 2014, to protest against the government decision. As a c consequence of this Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd closed at Rs.26.70, Gitanjali Gems Ltd at Rs.62.65, while P C Jeweler Ltd closed at Rs.103.65. However, there is pressure from the commerce ministry and the congress chairperson, Ms.Sonia Gandhi to ease the import norms. Also, since Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd is more into exports, their bottomline is  not likely to be affected much. 

Thursday, March 06, 2014

Q3 CAD narrows to $4.2bn on lower trade deficit
[Editor: As usual, hackneyed takes by two (Aditi Nayar and Shubhada Rao) so-called experts on CNBV TV18. Aditi Nayar  said, "Moderation in merchandise trade export growth and mild growth in services exports is likely to continue in Q4 as well. Particularly, for merchandise exports the base effect is rather high in Q4 particularly in March. So, I think a little bit of caution is still warranted." Also, remittances in Q4 could be on the lower side because of unofficial gold imports coming in through back channel, she said. The question is: what is she trying say...?]
Mar 05, 2014: India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to USD 4.2 billion (0.9 percent of GDP) in Q3 of 2013-14 from USD 31.9 billion (6.5 percent of GDP) in Q3 of 2012-13 primarily on account of a decline in the trade deficit as merchandise exports picked up and imports moderated, particularly gold imports. 

This is also lower than USD 5.2 billion (1.2 percent of GDP) in Q2 of 2013-14. On a BoP basis, merchandise exports increased by 7.5 percent to USD 79.8 billion in Q3 of 2013-14 (3.9 percent in Q3 of 2012-13) on the back of significant growth especially in the exports of engineering goods, readymade garments, iron ore, marine products and chemicals. 

On the other hand, merchandise imports at USD 112.9 billion, recorded a decline of 14.8 per cent in Q3 of 2013-14 as against an increase of 10.4 percent in Q3 of 2012-13. Decline in imports in Q3 was primarily led by a steep decline in gold imports, which amounted to USD 3.1 billion as compared to USD 17.8 billion in Q3 of 2012-13 and USD 3.9 billion in Q2 of 2013-14. As a result, the merchandise trade deficit (BoP basis) contracted by around 43 per cent to USD 33.2 billion in Q3 of 2013-14 from USD 58.4 billion a year ago. 

Net services receipts improved during Q3 of 2013-14, essentially reflecting a decline in payments on account of services imports. Net services at USD 18.1 billion recorded a growth of 8.9 per cent in Q3 of 2013-14 (y-o-y). Net outflow on account of primary income (profit, dividend and interest) amounting to USD 5.4 billion in Q3 of 2013-14 was relatively lower than that in the corresponding quarter (USD 5.8 billion) of 2012-13 as well as the preceding quarter (USD 6.3 billion). In Q3 of 2013-14, gross private transfer receipts at USD17.3 billion showed an increase of 4.8 percent (y-o-y). 

How experts read it 

Q3 CAD is slightly better than even our lower band of estimation, Aditi Nayar of ICRA told CNBC-TV18 in an interview. 

For the full year, she sees CAD at USD 35-40 billion.  Moderation in merchandise trade export growth and mild growth in services exports is likely to continue in Q4 as well, she added. “Particularly, for merchandise exports the base effect is rather high in Q4 particularly in March. So, I think a little bit of caution is still warranted,” she said. Also, remittances in Q4 could be on the lower side because of unofficial gold imports coming in through back channel, she said. 

Agreeing with Nayar, Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI said that Q3 CAD has beaten estimates and for the full year, CAD can further narrow to USD 35-40 billion with larger probability of it being close to USD 35 billion. 

Meanwhile, sharing views on the impact of lowering CAD on the rupee, Shubhada Rao of Yes Bank said despite stress in the global currency markets, rupee has been better performing currency essentially because of CAD concerns ebbing and sustained improvement in capital flows.

“Funding risks have ebbed. Shrinkage in current account is what is giving the fundamental supports to the rupee to trade in narrow range,” she added.

Courtesy: Money Control

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Rolta India Ltd: Interview with Mr.K K Singh
KK Singh, CMD, Rolta India, says the rationale behind hiking promoter stake holding is on account of the condition that defence sector companies need to have atleast 50 percent promoter stakeholding to be able to participate in manufacturing and in defense make India programmes. Mr.Singh, further said the company has plans to up promoter holding by another 5% next year. 
Rolta India Ltd promoters gained majority control in the company by hiking their stake from 40 percent to over 50 percent over the last three years through creeping acquisitions. KK Singh, CMD, Rolta India, says this year the promoter holding was raised by 4 percent. He adds the promoters still have the leeway to hike it by another 1 percent this year itself, as per Sebi guidelines. Going forward, the promoters will up their stake by another 5 percent next year in the company, he says. 

Singh says the rationale behind hiking promoter stake holding is on account of the condition that defence sector companies need to have atleast 50 percent promoter stakeholding to be able to participate in manufacturing and in defense make India programmes. 

Apart from that, the company raised about USD 200 million internationally to repay Indian debt in the previous quarter, due to which interest costs were reduced to some extent, which provided a natural hedge, he says. As of now, the debt stands at around USD 600 million, he adds. Though he says the company is now in a better position because it is seeing monetizing of its investments. He says the company will be debt free in the next 4-5 years. Below is the verbatim transcript of KK Singh's interview on CNBC-TV18. 

Q: The promoters of the company have been increasing their stake in the company. So every year via the creeping acquisition the stake has been going up and now above 50 percent mark. Could you tell us in this year how much have the promoters raised and what the plan is. Is that going to continue, what is the target promoter level that you are looking at? 
A: In this year we increased almost about 4 percent and we will continue to do this creeping acquisition as we go forward and this year we still have 1 percent limit because 5 percent is the Sebi guideline and next year again we will have 5 percent. So, we will continue to acquire as we go forward. Therefore, 50-51 percent certainly helps us in defense sector. There is a condition that Indian promoters must have at least 50 percent and above to be able to participate in manufacturing and in defense make India programmes. There is another big make India programme, the requests for proposal (RFP) will be put out in next week, which is a USD 5 billion programme which is for better field management system. So, these programmes mandate these things. We are well placed in that, there are only a handful of companies which have been shortlisted for these and we are one of them. So, this is an important thing for us from that angle also. 

Q: One of the key parameters in your previous quarter was that your finance costs were higher. What is the debt on books at this point and what is the trajectory that we can expect in terms of reduction of debt for the company? 
A: We have been dollarising our balance sheet. We raised USD 200 million in the previous quarter and this was internationally raised. The idea was that it was required to repay the Indian debts and we reduced our cost of interest to some extent and that also provides us a natural hedge. So, overall we have about USD 600 million odd debt and that is because of the fact that in the last five years we have invested almost a billion dollar into our company, into transforming the company from a simple services company to a very IP centric company and this transformation has been complete. We are seeing monetization now, better results, better profit margins and better market shares. So, this is certainly giving us an advantage in what we are doing and these are all long-term loans and as we go forward in next four-five years we should be debt free. 

Q: In the near term what are the key deals that have opened up and where does company’s pipeline stand at? 
A: Overall, the company’s pipeline right now is at Rs 8,500 crore and out of this pipeline we continue to get good orders. We have been getting good orders constantly out of large orders internationally as well as domestically but certainly defense things will make a qualitative and quantitative difference as and when they start happening. We do still get good business from defense. We have 18-20 percent of our business coming out of defense but these large make India programmes are still to take off and once they takeoff there will be a big change. 

Q: Instead of 5 percent creeping acquisition every year, no plan for an open offer or anything? A: No. We will be happy with small creeping acquisition which we do within the Sebi guidelines and that is what we want to do. 

Courtesy: www.moneycontrol.com

Thursday, December 19, 2013

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
A buy was initiated in Nifty_6200_Dec_Call today at Rs.41, after which it crossed Rs.53. I hope most who invested in the recommendation made money from it. CLICK HERE. Today, also FIIs were net buyers of Rs.2264.11 Cr and DIIs sold a meagre Rs.41.59 Cr. Therefore, it is anybody's guess how the markets are likely to behave in the coming days. 
Tulip Telecom Ltd hit the buyer freeze today, before cooling down at Rs.5.99. There was huge volume today also and the turnover was of Rs.20.66 lakhs. I and my family could be holding positions in Tulip Telecom Ltd. 
Reliance Communications Ltd today touched Rs.131.90 before closing at Rs.130.95. The Anil Ambani-led telecommunications firm Reliance Communications is considering a bond issue to the tune of USD 1 billion, reported CNBC-TV18, quoting sources. The issue, which is targeting fund-raising at the cost of debt of around 8 to 9 percent, would, however, depend on market conditions. Proceeds from the issue would likely go towards retiring and restructuring the company's existing high-cost debt. Reliance Communications Ltd's, Net Profit grew by 562% Y/Y to Rs.6750 mn in Q2FY14 [v/s Rs.1020 mn in Q2FY13]. 
Pricol Ltd recommended at around Rs.26, today touched Rs.30.15. The scrip could give at least 40-50% returns even from the current price of Rs.29.55. 

Friday, December 13, 2013

Reliance Communications mulling $1bn debt issue: Sources
Proceeds from the issue would likely go towards retiring and restructuring the company’s existing high-cost debt.
Dec 10, 2013: The Anil Ambani-led telecommunications firm Reliance Communications  is considering a bond issue to the tune of USD 1 billion, reports CNBC-TV18, quoting sources.

 The firm is said to have appointed bankers to finalize the issue and has short-listed European and Singapore markets as potential markets. 

The issue, which is targeting fund-raising at the cost of debt of around 8 to 9 percent, would, however, depend on market conditions. Proceeds from the issue would likely go towards retiring and restructuring the company’s existing high-cost debt. 

The debt-laden firm had total liabilities of Rs 41,169 crore as of September 2013. When contacted, Reliance Communications declined to comment on the issue.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

IVRCL Ltd: Channel Break-out Expected

The Infrastructure firm IVRCL Ltd (Rs.14), is selling its Chennai seawater desalination plant and Jalandhar-Amritsar road project as part of its second round of asset sales to trim debt.

IVRCL holds a 75% stake in Chennai Water Desalination Ltd (CWDL), which invested around Rs.600 crore to set up a 100 million litres a day seawater desalination plant in Chennai on a build, own, operate and transfer (BOOT) basis for 25 years.

The other 25% stake is held by Spanish partner Befesa Agua, which brought in the technology to purify sea water and convert it into potable water. IVRCL invested about Rs240 crore as equity, raising the balance money through debt.

Earlier in April, 2013, IVRCL signed an agreement to sell three build, operate, transfer (BOT) road projects in Tamil Nadu to TRIL Roads Pvt. Ltd, a Tata group company, for around Rs.2,200 crore. The projects were: Salem Tollways Ltd, Kumarapalayam Tollways Ltd and IVRCL Chengapalli Tollways Ltd. The sale helped the company free Rs.450-500 crore in cash, and wipe off debt worth Rs.1,100 crore from the balance sheet.

On 5th November, 2013, Mr.SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com told CNBC-TV18 that, "One should really look to the assets like IVRCL Ltd and NCC Ltd where it has the BOT projects. It does not have much debt. It has a order book of Rs.25,000-30,000 crore, but is really serious in monetizing their road projects. Once one has that deal happening that will give them about Rs.1,000 crore plus which will be seen really very positive".

As of 27th September, 2013, IVRCL Ltd has a total order book of Rs.25,000 crore. Of this, it has new orders worth Rs.8,000-9,000 crore.