Saturday, May 16, 2015

Exports fall for 5th month in a row
[Editor: Exports are falling, FIIs are selling continuously (On 15-May-2015, also FIIs were net sellers of Rs.38.31 cr), Narendra Modi is taking of land acquisition for Chinese companies in Gujarat, to participate in "Make in India" campaign and Steel companies are bleeding, while Indian PM's bonhomie with the Chinese continues. What a strange coincidence? The INC should now aggressively pitch, Mr.P Chidambaram, as their PM candidate for the next Lok Sabha elections--this is the opportune moment] 
Photo: Money Control
NEW DELHI, May 16, 2015: India's exports shrank for the fifth month in a row, falling 14% to $22 billion in April due to a sharp decline in the value of petroleum products and gems and jewellery. 

Crude oil imports too fell on account of softer international prices, resulting in a 7.5% decrease in imports to $33 billion. But, a more rapid fall in petroleum exports resulted in the trade deficit widening to nearly $11 billion, compared to $10 billion a year ago. Oil imports fell 42.6% during April to $7.4 billion, while non-oil imports rose 12.6% at $25.6 billion. Trade deficit also widened as gold imports rose over 78% to $3.1 billion. 

Along with a slowdown in the industrial production, export contraction is emerging as a worry for policymakers. 

Although the falling trend in oil prices has reversed in recent weeks, the dip from over $100 a barrel levels has been the main reason for the contraction in exports. In March, country's exports contracted by 21%, the steepest fall during the last six years. The last time exports registered positive growth was in last November, when a 7.3% rise was registered. 

"The prime reason continues to be softening of crude, metal and commodity prices. Equally worrying is negative growth in gems & jewellery, electronics and plastic goods," Federation of Indian Export Organisations said in a statement. Top exporting sectors, including petroleum products (46.5%), gems and jewellery (10%) and man-made yarn and fabrics (8.3%%), witnessed a fall in April. 

"The sequential narrowing of the trade deficit in April 2015 relative to the previous month benefitted from a moderation in gold imports. Overall, we expect gold imports of around $36 billion in the current fiscal," ratings agency ICRA said in a statement.

Friday, May 15, 2015

Ab ki baar UPA sarkar.
[Editor: The present condition of Narendra Modi quotient is like of Dr.Datson's Labs Ltd which moved from around Rs.7-8 to Rs.21.50 in no time and is again near Rs.7-8 (CMP--Rs.7.87). Too much advertised products ends up in this way only.  Moreover talking of the Narendra Modi government we find that INR has depreciated by more  than 8.5% in the last one year. Now while the inflation has fallen due to low crude oil and soft commodity prices, the GDP growth is absent; FIIs are exiting and HSBC has already downgraded India. Meanwhile the management of Tata Steel Ltd would probably write off Rs.5000 crore from their books; as Chinese dumping continues.  Narendra Modi instead of saving domestic Steel giant is busy with Chinese Bonhomie. The Gems and Jewelry sector, one of the major foreign exchange earners, is in shambles.  The same is with the SOYA oil sector. This brings us to the moot question: What have we achieved during the last one year in terms of new policy initiatives? Also another unfortunate incident has happened when Narendra Modi again made India a laughing stock, among the Chinese. The entire symbolism of Narendra Modi's visit turned putrid when China’s national television broadcaster CCTV beamed a controversial map of India that showed Arunachal Pradesh as 'south Tibet' and excluded large parts of Jammu and Kashmir soon after Modi landed in China]
Almost a year after he won the Lok Sabha election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has achieved the impossible: he has given us another year of UPA. From Congress mukt (free) Bharat in 2014, we now have a Congress yukt (containing) government.

Spot the difference between MMS (Manmohan Sarkar) and NMS (Narendra Modi Sarkar). Foreign Direct Investment in Retail: approved by UPA-2, opposed by the BJP, cleared by the Modi government. Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill, favoured by UPA, blocked by BJP-led states, now being steered by Modi. Nuclear Power Treaty: Midwifed by MMS, delivered by NMS...

Add to these the decision to raise FDI in private insurance (UPA), the land swap treaty with Bangladesh, promise of increased allocation to MNREGA and we have a pretty picture of a government that has been loyal to the UPA past.

Some of Modi’s U-turns to UPA have been embarrassingly opportunistic. On September 20, 2012, the BJP enforced a Bharat Bandh to protest FDI in retail; its leader Nitin Gadkari shared the stage with the Left and Samajwadi leaders to label the bill as anti-farmer. A few weeks later, the then leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj, moved a motion against FDI.

In politics too, like in cinema, motion se hi emotion, so Swaraj turned it on in the Parliament. “Will Wal-mart care about the poor farmer’s sister’s wedding? Will it send his children to school? Will it notice his tear and hunger?” she said in a melodramatic speech laced with filmy dialogue.

In 2013, on becoming chief minister of Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje matched Sushma’s thunder with fierce action. Like the Arvind Kejriwal government in Delhi, Raje banned FDI in retail in Rajasthan, forcing some of the existing players to shut shop and go back home.

And, now it has somersaulted back into 2012. On Wednesday, the Modi cabinet decided to stick to UPA’s decision of allowing foreigners to invest 51 per cent in multi-brand retail.

So, will Wal-mart now help the bechara kisan get his sister married and children educated? No.

“As a party, we are opposed to that change and our stand remains the same. This was a law enacted by Parliament where it was not backed by the BJP. However, this has become a law and making any change in law would send a negative signal to foreign investors who expect continuity in the economic regime,” BJP spokesperson GVL Narasimha Rao explained the latest volte-face.

Rao’s argument is rooted in irony. If the BJP were really sentimental about the past, concerned about continuity, cared about laws passed by the Parliament, it wouldn’t have turned the UPA’s Land Acquisition Bill—which, unlike FDI in retail, was backed by the BJP—into a fresh political and legislative issue.

Incidentally, the land acquisition bill is another pointer to how the Congress is still dictating the agenda even after being reduced to two digits in the Parliament. While Modi has been able to get some of the laws originally proposed by the UPA cleared by the Parliament, he has not moved much with some of his own innovations and ideas.

In the case of UPA laws, the BJP was against it before it was for it. In the case of BJP promises, it was for it before it was against it. It is all so terribly confusing.

When it celebrates a year of Modi, sarkar, the BJP will list its social security schemes--the Pradhan Mantri Yojanas- as its achievements. But, in a scathing critique of the schemes—accident insurance, life insurance and pension plan — an article on Scroll.in argues all of them have an element of fraud and are old (UPA) wine in new (Modi) bottles.

In spite of their bitter rivalry, there has been very little to separate between the Congress and the BJP, when they are in power. The formula for both of them has been same: while in opposition oppose, when in government support.

The Congress doublespeak is apparent in its tactics on the GST bill. After trying for several years to get the new proposals implemented, it is now creating roadblocks in the Parliament. Even in the past, it has made many about turns on policy decisions, depending upon which benches its MPs occupy in the Lok Sabha.

Moral of the story: The more the things change, more they remain the same.

This is not to say that Modi hasn’t done anything in the past year that’s different from the UPA raj. He has travelled tirelessly in the past 12 months, visited 16 countries, showcased India’s investment potential and strengthened bilateral ties and trade with many countries. During the UPA government, foreign diplomacy was largely ignored and very little effort was made to aggressively pursue foreign investments.

But, how much of this frenzied focus on foreign visits has helped India? The dollar, as people are pointing out on twitter in a caustic reminder of another Modi jumla, is on an escalator and the Rupee is on ventilator. The GDP numbers, after some jugglery, haven’t moved from wherever they were earlier.

Perhaps Modi needs more time. And things will change after another year of UPA sarkar, or whatever it is called under Modi.

Courtesy: First Post

Thursday, May 14, 2015

FIR lodged against NGO for issuing fake I-cards
[Editor: The misleading identity cards were issued in the names of several underworld dons, under the banner of All India Labour Welfare Sewa Sangh (AILWSS). Not only that Manish Choudhury has taken money from several of my acquaintances on some pretext or the other; only to vanish in the dark. His cell phone is not reachable now. If he continues to evade me, I will post his phone number here in this blog. If anyone has any information about this person, please do send me a mail]
Tuesday, May 05, 2015: In a significant development following unearthing of a fake I-card racket, an FIR has been registered at the Dindoshi police station against an NGO, All India Labour Welfare Sewa Sangh (AILWSS), for issuing misleading identity cards and compromising national security.

The ADC – in its report on February 7 under the headline ‘Dons get ID Cards as CID officers, activists’ had highlighted about the Mumbai-based NGO, National Anti-Corruption and Crime Prevention Council (NACCPC) that filed a complaint against another NGO, All India Labour Welfare Sewa Singh (AILWSS), for issuing misleading identity cards and compromising national security wherein Chhota Shakeel, the right hand man of Pakistan-based Dawood Ibrahim and Tiger Memon, the mastermind of 1993 serial blasts or for that matter Hemant Pujari were passed off as CID officers or human rights activists. The NGO has been allegedly issuing I-cards against money and the complainant, Mohan Krishnan, the President of Mumbai-based NGO, National Anti-Corruption and Crime Prevention Council (NACCPC) acted as a whistle blower. I-cards in the name of Chhota Shakeel, the right hand man of Pakistan-based Dawood Ibrahim and Tiger Memon, the mastermind of 1993 serial blasts or for that matter gangster Hemant Pujari were issued as 'CID Officers' or human rights activists. “This is serious breach of security - and the police need to act on this. After a sting and our investigations, we managed to get I-cards done with photographs of Tiger Memon, the mastermind of serial blasts besides underworld dons like Chhota Shakeel and Hemant Pujari. This is extremely serious. We are living in an age of changing geo-political situation where we are surrounded by threats. We have been facing terrorism at regular intervals and such agencies add to the threat,” Krishnan said.

He further added, “My complaint was forwarded to Law Officer to know the legal opinion in the case and now, an FIR has been registered against the NGO for this act.”  Krishnan has written letters to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who holds the home portfolio, Chief Secretary Dr. Swadhin Kashtriya and Mumbai Police commissioner Rakesh Maria - seeking a through investigation into the issue.

“I have specifically sought action against AILWSS all-India president Jeevit Ram and its West Bengal unit chief Manish Choudhary, who are engaged in the money-spinning racket. They demand sums and then the I-cards are issued with designations like 'chief vigilance officer', 'chief enquiry officer', 'chief investigation officer', 'CID officer', 'president of action committee' and 'force commander of Ajamgadh'. People who obtain such cards, in turn extort money,” Krishnan said.

Courtesy: Afternoon
MSCI Small Cap Index adds 51 securities and deletes 8
Mumbai | May 13, 2015: MSCI Inc on Tuesday announced the results of the May 2015 Semi‐Annual Index Review for the MSCI Equity Indexes – including the MSCI Global Standard, MSCI Global Small Cap and MSCI Micro Cap Indexes. 

All changes will be implemented as of the close of May 29, 2015. MSCI Small Cap Index will add Aarti Industries, Ajanta Pharma, Alstom T&D, Asahi India, Blue Dart, Bombay Burmah, Capital First, Century Ply, Cera, Crisil, Crompton, Dalmia Bharat, Dhanuka Agri, Edelweiss, Eveready, Future Retail, HCC, Hitachi, Indoco, Ingersoll, Isgec, Kalpataru, Kansai, Kitex Garments, KRBL, L&T Fin, Motilal Oswal, Marico Kaya, Muthoot, Orient Cem, Persistent, PTC India, Ratnamani Metals, Reliance Infra, Repco Home, Rolta, Schneider, Sharda Crop, Shipla Medicare, Suven Life, Tata Comm, Tata Elxsi, Tata Investment, Texmaco Rail, Timken, Union Bank, Viniti Organics, Wabco, Welspun Ind and Zensar. 

Bajaj Finance, Balrampur, Bharat Forge, Britannia, DCM Shriram, PMC Fincorp, Prestige Estates and Tilak Finance will be deleted from MSCI Small Cap Index. 

There will be 400 additions to and 292 deletions from the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes. There will be 391 additions to and 261 deletions from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes. For MSCI Global Value and Growth Indexes, the largest additions or style changes from growth to value will be Glaxosmithkline (United Kingdom), Novartis (Switzerland) and Kinder Morgan P (USA). 

Courtesy: Indiainfoline
Narendra Modi is now a Sell!!
Before, penning further, let me assure you, that I am neither a friend nor a foe of Narendra Modi.  I am just criticizing the policies of his government, so that the BJP leadership or the RSS can take corrective measures, for improving the Indian Economy. 

That Narendra Modi is a novice in central politics has been proved long back by his countless loose talks, including his much publicized "Broom Expedition".  

Also I mentioned a number of times earlier that he has no interest in giving good economy, but is more willing to prepare a good vote bank for the BJP. But then, all Indians cannot be fooled all the time.

He perhaps  either does not understand the economy or does not take suggestions from the expert committee. He is now bent on showing low inflation, thinking that RBI will cut rate. But, rate cut will not spur demand, as the government has not taken much pro-active steps to  either revive the economy or give some incentives to the ailing sectors like Gems and Jewelry, Steel and Soya Oil, to name a few. 

Yesterday, I was hearing a gentleman from Ruch Soya Ltd, who said that the difference (import duty) between crude and refined oil  is only 7.5%, which  is not sufficient. He lamented that inspite of repeated presentations to the FMO, to make the delta as 12-15% nothing much happened till now. His government is more vocal on land bill, GST, etc to make headlines in the media. When there is no SALT at home what is the use of bringing of Fish from the market? 

How will the make in India happen in the steel sector, unless dumping is stopped?

His government passed some of the bills in the Lok Sabha because the NDA has strength there, but is not able to show any sort intelligence or diplomacy when the bills landed in the Rajya Sabha. This is called "Poor Floor Management". But when we have a person who lacks intelligence at the helm, we cannot expect someone like Kamal Nath (an expert in floor management) or P R Das Munshi to be in his team. No one knows what his ministers are doing and what their goals. The surprising part is that the RSS is tolerating, the heaps of mess created by the Modi government, everyday. 

His finance minister is equally, inapt and amateur. He also thinks that lowering of rates by the RBI is the panacea of all ill---therefore, his ministry is presenting some good inflation numbers and  is shouting for rate cut. 

I have already mentioned umpteen number of times, that I have little faith on the data presented by the Narendra Modi government, as the ground realities are much different and have not changed much since the the NDA came to power last year.

When the economy is not doing well and the FIIs are continuously pulling out money not only from the equity market but also from the debt market, then on what assurance, will the RBI cut the rates? Even if the RBI cut the rates, will there be any credit growth? I do not think so. In absence of some solid policies where will the companies invest the funds? 

Take it from  me: the RBI is not going to cut rate  in the June, 2015 too

It is pertinent to mention here that too much time taken to remove Dr.Pranab Mukherjee, from the post of FM, got the INC, lose the last election. The same thing looms large if quick decision is not taken to dismiss the Modi government and bring in a Prime Minister, who has at least some experience, as an MP.

Don't hear all those who tell you to buy on dips. The Nifty is likely to touch 7600 as FIIs are exiting the Indian Markets. The government  must have asked the DIIs to keep buying, but how long will this cosmetic affair continue?

Nifty is now at 8,214.45 down 21.00 points or -0.25%. However, the worst of this market is yet to come, unless Narendra Modi stops his foreign visits and concentrates on India. His last visit was a sham and poor tax  payers money were blown out without much incentives. The question is why is he roaming countries after countries? What is his EA minister doing? 

It is all in Mess. Around a couple of decades back, if you remember, I started in equity market just out of passion, but later graduated to a professional.  

These days, I have lost interest in the market and therefore have joined an Infotech company in operations (data analysis and management). At present I am  running high fever, but could  not suppress my desire to unmask Narendra Modi government, which is nothing but a bundle of "Tall Talks"

The grape-vine is that, another Mid-term elections could be round the corner as many of the BJP MPs are not happy with the functioning of the Narendra Modi government.

Monday, May 11, 2015

ICICI Bank Chairman KV Kamath appointed BRICS bank president
[Editor: Now you must have understood the real reasons for Mr.Kamath, saying so much positive about the otherwise discredited Narendra Modi government] 
May 11, 2015: ICICI Bank Chairman K V Kamath has been appointed as the president of the $50 billion New Development Bank being set up by

Eminent banker K V Kamath was today appointed as head of the USD 50 billion New Development Bank being set up by the five emerging economies of BRICS grouping.

Kamath will have a five year term of the bank, which is likely to be operationalised within one year, Finance Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi said.

Kamath is the Chairman of the India’s largest private sector bank ICICI.

Leaders of the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) had last year reached an agreement to establish the New Development Bank, with its headquarters in Shanghai. As per the agreement, India got the right to nominate the first president.

Kamath has been named the first president of the NDB, Mehrishi said.

The BRICS nations account for nearly USD 16 trillion in GDP and 40 per cent of the world’s population.

The bank will start with an initial paid-in-capital of USD 50 billion with each BRICS country contributing USD 10 billion.

After serving at ICICI for more than a decade, Kamath had moved to Asian Development Bank, Manila, in the Private Sector department in 1988.

His principal work experience at ADB was in various projects in China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and other emerging nations.

Making a strong pitch for speeding up the creation of the BRICS development bank, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said last year that India hopes to ratify the agreement over the financial institution by 2014-end, and 2016 should be set as the target for its inauguration.

Modi had made this remark at an informal meeting with Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and South African President President Jacob Zuma on the sidelines of the G20 summit at Brisbane (Australia) in November.

India’s presidency will be followed by Brazil and Russia who will have five years term each under an agreement reached after intense negotiations among the five country-grouping.

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Steel imports up 28% at .29 bn in FY15: Govt
[Editor: It is irony that the Narendra Modi government is promoting the overseas steel companies instead of supporting the domestic ones. The Modi government probably thinks that putting import curbs might fuel inflation; but I strongly feel that this is an unethical method to quell the inflation tiger. Also, we are yet to know whether, the government has any clandestine understanding (deal) with the steel importers or not]  
Photo: International Business Times
May 08, 2015: India's steel imports rose 28 percent to USD 16.29 billion (about Rs 1.04 lakh crore) last fiscal as the country became a net importer of the metal, Parliament was informed on Friday. 

India, the world's fourth-largest steel producer, had imported steel worth USD 12.71 billion in 2013-14, data presented by the Minister of State (Independent Charge) Commerce and Industry Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha showed. India's out-bound shipment of the metal, however, grew marginally to USD 16.24 billion in 2014-15, from USD 16.03 billion in the year-ago period, the data showed. 

The data for 2014-15 are on a provisional basis. "India has been a net importer of steel since 2007-08 until 2013-14 when the country became a net exporter for that year only. In 2014-15 again, India was a net importer of steel," Sitharaman informed the House. 

In 2014-15, the Minister said capacity utilisation of the Indian steel industry improved to 85 percent provisionally from 80.9 percent in 2013-14. Production of crude steel was 7.9 percent higher at 88.12 million tonnes (MT) in 2014-15.

"In the present deregulated market set-up, imports of steel are completely market driven and take place mainly due to the domestic non-availability or limited availability of specialised steel products and partly due to price considerations," she added.

Courtesy: Moneycontrol.com

Friday, May 08, 2015

Rolta India forms JV with Israeli firm Meprolight to make optronics devices
Mumbai  May 4, 2015: Rolta India Limited, a provider of innovative IT solutions for various industry segments, has signed definitive agreement to establish a joint venture with Meprolight, the Israel-based electro-optics company, for manufacturing and developing state-of-the-art optronics devices based on image intensifier and thermal imaging technologies in India.

The JV, to be owned 51% by Rolta and 49% by Meprolight, will take advantage of technology transfer from Meprolight for manufacturing optronics devices, which can address the growing demand for night fighting capabilities by the Indian defence and security forces.

This JV will become operational on receipt of requisite approvals from respective Governments and leverage a broad spectrum of cutting-edge technologies, in the area of optronics from Meprolight, and Rolta's leadership position in the India, to address large requirements of defence, paramilitary forces and state police.

Orly Katsav, chairwoman, Meprolight Ltd, stated, "Our JV with Rolta will increase Meprolight’s footprint internationally through this strategic partnership. The creation of this joint venture is a significant milestone for us and this win-win partnership will leverage the resources and expertise of both companies to serve the Indian optronics and electro-optical devices market."

K K Singh, chairman and managing director, Rolta India Ltd, commented, “We are extremely pleased to be partnering with Meprolight to form this joint venture. This is an important event for our defence business and the next step in our efforts to address the complete sensor-to-shooter chain, through indigenous, made in India, solutions. Guided by a set of common values, this JV will share best practices through transfer of technology and bring in state-of-the-art optronics manufacturing capabilities into our country.”

Meprolight is a leading international electro-optics company, developing, manufacturing and marketing systems for infantry, armed forces, law enforcement agencies and civilian markets since 1990. Meprolight provides comprehensive solutions with a wide array of combat-proven products; electro-optical and optical sights and devices, night vision devices, thermal sights, laser rangefinders, hand held rangefinders and fire control systems and other tritium illuminated products and accessories for safety and security applications. Meprolight is a member of SK Group, a leading global defence and security group of companies. 

Why Narendra Modi should be blamed!!
Photo: Brainbridge Island
I understand this is an unusual tag-line to start any discussion, but there is no escape either from the reality. It is true that Narendra Modi is honest and hard-working, but sometimes, these two factors are alone not able to lift a sagging economy like the present day India. 

The Narendra Modi's biggest drawback is that he overlooked the carry-forward problems of the economy, while delving around newer and newer territories, just to get publicity. This is abysmally a wrong idea, which the Modi-team has been peddling along, since a long time. The result: there is still a lack of demand while the inflation is coming down; which means we are approaching towards a classic DEFLATION TRAP. 

If we are looking at some of the ailing sectors, like Gems and Jewelry, Infrastructure (including steel, power, real estate, etc), Railways, etc, we will find that we are back to square one. Nothing much has improved during the last 9-10 months. It seems the government does not want to touch these sector, but is more interested in creating HEADLINES like passing of the GST, FDI in Insurance,  FDI in Railways, etc, etc. 

In an interesting development, today, The Economic Times  carried the headlines: 
"Industry wrong in criticizing Modi govt for its woes: KV Kamath".
But we know him since the days of ICICI Bank. He is always over-optimistic and pro-government. Hence his rhetoric should always be taken with a pinch of salt. Now coming to the sectors let us take a look at the Modi-government's paradoxes: 
i) The FMO is still dilly-dallying in putting import curbs for the steel sector, as the production becomes unviable for many small players. This is a nagging problem since a long time, but it seems the Finance Minister has some interest for the importers. Don't know the reasons. 

ii) The Gems and Jewelry space is suffering since P Chidambarm was the FM of this great country. It was hoped that after the NDA government came to office it would alleviate the problems of the sector, especially the artisans who are leading a very pitiable (miserable) life, as the government continues to put import restriction on Gold. 

iii) To boost the infrastructure, Modi government unsuccessfully tried to pass, the land reform bill and the end result is still zero. The bill it seems has been placed in cold storage, thinking of vote bank, as the RSS had earlier given a soft warning regarding the passage of such a bill, having negative impact among the electrortes. 

iv) Regarding intelligence and experience of Narendra Modi, in larger canvass, it would be better if we do not touch this topic at all. Many top analysts are of the view that most of the much hyped projects of Narendra Modi looks good only on paper, like Communist Doctrines; but remains practically unimplementable. Just look at the "Swachh Bharat Abhiyan: which was launched with much fanfare, with Bollywood personalities taking the broom, but on ground nothing much has improved. You would still find people spitting here and there, and the roads (including  the Pune-Mumbai super-highway) littered with Pan and Ghutka stains. Do you want to say, that the commuters in Mumbai and Navi Mumbai are not culturally trained? But the truth stares everyone on the face.  

Forget about the Thane district, just look at the Mumbai itself---there is nothing much to be seen, as far as the cleanliness of the roads are concerned. It is as usual as we had during the UPA rule. The point is that: unless the basic character of human beings change, just taking a broom and cleaning the nearby drains, will not make much sense. Though the Modi-government has introduced cess for this "Swachch Bharat Programme", but baby is still-born, till now

v) Narendra Modi is introducing, all sorts of insurance policies for the common man, the intention is good. But in today's world is Rs.2 lakhs sufficient, after the death of anyone? The policies are plain-vanilla, without much ground-work. Therefore, these programmes are mere gimmicks rather than serving any useful purpose for anyone. Moreover, there is hardly any worthwhile social security for the old, except some sprinklings here and there. 

I can go on and on, in this subject, but I feel, most of you who thought that Narendra Modi, would dispel the gloom and doom, has been utterly disappointed. I have said time and again, that those things which require, intelligence and experience cannot be solved by mere hard work and labour. The transportation issue of Kolkata in 1980s was not solved by putting more buses and taxis on the road, but by the introduction of underground Metro Railways. The Indian Army might have 1000s of hard-working soldiers, but there is only general to guide them. If the leader is not good, there is hardly any chance of winning any battle. 

Therefore, the bottomline is that: unless we have an intelligent Prime Minister and a professional Finance Minister, this economy is hardly to gather steam. steam in the near future. We might move sideways for some days, again to fall back. It perhaps only in India, that a person who have never been an MP (forget about becoming Union Minister), in the past directly become the Prime of the country. What more can be said about this irony....!!
Speculators fuelling soybean prices: SOPA
SOPA blamed the futures market for underestimating the crop size, which it said has pushed up prices 20% in a month. Soybean prices are trading around Rs 4,070 a quintal currently.
Mumbai May 5, 2015: The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has revised downwards the estimate of damage to soybean crop due to recent rain. The body now expects the damage to be around 10 million tonne from 10.4 mt earlier.

SOPA blamed the futures market for underestimating the crop size, which it said had pushed prices up 20 per cent in a month. Soybean is around currently Rs 4,070 a quintal.

It said speculators in the futures market were quoting abnormally low figures, hurting the fortunes of processors and their margins.

The association also said there was no change in crop estimates for Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and other states, except Maharashtra where the crop size was revised to 2.6 mt.

“We are looking to protect the long-term interest of processors, not only a few large ones. Heavy speculation and manipulation of prices in the futures market through National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) is hurting the entire trade. Futures influences market sentiments through unfounded rumours of lower crop size, bad weather and other unfavourable conditions resulting into unrealistic rise in prices, which needs to be stopped,” said Davish Jain, president, SOPA.

However, NCDEX clarified, “Soybean futures contracts on the exchange platform have attracted wide and active participation from all segments of the value chain participants, including manufacturers and exporters. The exchange is constantly monitoring the trading on its platform and shall take appropriate action in case any irregularities are noticed.”

Further, “Futures prices are based on underlying fundamental factors. Recent price movement in the futures prices for soya appear to be in response to recent developments in the demand-supply dynamics”.

SOPA said heavy speculation, tax evasion by a few unscrupulous companies, very low prices of soybean oil in the world market and the historically low landed price in India are hurting the business of soybean processors.

The body has suggested making physical delivery mandatory for a certain percentage of the futures contract, increasing the margin money and temporarily suspending futures during the off-season when the speculation is at a peak.

Jain said that, SOPA will again approach the Central government to increase import duty on soybean oil from current 7.5% to 17.5% because there is a likelihood of carry over stock in the coming season”. 

Thursday, May 07, 2015

Over-hyped Modi-rally Falls From Grace
Photo: Moneycontrol.com
The bloodbath continued in the Dalal Street even today as the BULLS were taken by the horns, and Nifty closed at 8,057.30 down 39.70 points.  The Nifty today though went down to 7997.15 points, on the intra-day basis; but at last the  support came in the 7500-8000 ranges. 

Though the Nifty might move towards 8150 on the intr-day basis tomorrow, but the Nifty is sell on every bounce. The trend remains down in the short, medium and long term. This will perhaps continue unless and until we have an intelligent Prime Minister and a professional Finance Minister. The passing of GST in the Lok Sabha does not carry much meaning, unless and until it gets similar approval in the Upper House of the Parliament. But the GST has it own merits and demerits; and only time will tell how much it will be able to boost the GDP of the Indian economy. 

Meanwhile, though the inflation is below the RBI's own target region, but it is unlikely the Dr.Rajan would lower the interest too soon, because of unstable rupee and slowing of demand. There is already a chorus from India Inc to lower the Repo rate, but at this hour when the equity market is in ICU, it would be too risky to cut interest rate further. The INR is now at 64.240 Vs the USD and is threatening to cross the $70 mark. The bottomline is that Narendra Modi led government has brought India to the brink of disaster and we are in a classic DEFLATION TRAP. 

I had mentioned 100 times earlier, that elbowing top BJP leaders like Dr.M M Murli Monohor Joshi, might have serious consequences on the Indian economy. The point is that those things which requires experience and intelligence, cannot be solved by hard work or labour. 

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Rolta India Ltd moved and moved today as it touched Rs.125.30 intra-day while closing near the day's high at Rs.122.85 in the BSE and Rs.123.40 in the NSE, up more than 6% in both the exchanges. The scrip will again be moving towards Rs.170-180 ranges and hence stay invested. It is not only because Bharat Electronics Ltd-Rolta India consortium bagged the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) development agency order for the Battlefield Management System (BMS) project, worth over Rs.50,000 crore, but due to inherent strength of the company. The BMS project, categorised as a "Make in India" programme under the DPP, will be one of the largest solutions to be indigenously manufactured for the Indian Army.
Rasoya Proteins Ltd closed at Re.0.50 up more than 11.11% in the NSE. It hit the upper circuits in both the exchanges. The as I mentioned umpteen number of times, this stock will give superb returns going forward. This is an A-group company and hence the investors should accumulate it in all declines. 
My recommended Hindustan Oil Exploration Ltd today moved to Rs.39.75, before closing at Rs.39.30 up 3.59%. There were earlier media reports that Sun Pharma Ltd's promoter may pick up major stake in the company. The scrip should cross Rs.50 in the next few days, as the Crude Oil prices heads north. 
Gitanjali Gems Ltd moved to Rs.43.55, before closing at Rs.42.90. It is a common perception among the analyst fraternity that USD might rise if the US Fed hikes interest rates and hence outlook for the gold could remain subdued in the next 9-10 months. However, the geo-political situation is fast changing and might help a rise in the gold prices. The rise in the dollar may also provide a cushion to domestic gold prices. Even if the price of gold declines in dollar terms, the weakening of the rupee will keep prices high in rupee terms. Hence, buy the stock is Gitanjali Gems Ltd in all declines and keep holding. 
Veer Energy and Infrastructure Ltd today moved to Rs.3.37 before closing at Rs.3.28. The stock will invariably move towards Rs.5, in the coming days, as the government talks of providing more focus to the renewable energy sector. India’s wind power target of 60 GW by 2022 is easily attainable but solar target of 100 MW requires cost-effective support to be met, says a study report. 
In case of Nifty, today, it was expected that the market could rally, as the market was not only looking oversold but also, FIIs selling looked synthetic, due to rallies in the primary market. Today, the Sensex rallied 479 points while the Nifty posted the biggest daily gain in 2 months. The investors snapped up beaten down blue-chips after the Lower House of Parliament approved the 2015/16 Finance Bill on Thursday. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the equity segment worth Rs.605.3 million on both BSE, NSE and MCX-SX on May 04, as per provisional data available at the BSE. They bought equities worth Rs.51.05 billion and sold equities worth Rs.50.45 billion. While domestic institutional investors (DIIs), which include banks, DFIs, insurance and MFs, were net buyers in the equity segment worth Rs.1.46 billion. They bought equities worth Rs.12.53 billion and sold equities worth Rs.11.07 billion.

Monday, May 04, 2015

Ruchi Soya to invest Rs 300 crore in Maharashtra
[Editor: I think you remember that Rasoya Proteins Limited (Re.0.48) which is engaged in the business of Soya extraction and Power Generation, is also a Maharashtra-based company. Rasoya Proteins Ltd is primarily engaged in the business of soya processing through soya solvent extraction plant and oil refinery along with lecithin plant. It is also engaged in the business of generation of power having production capacity of 10 megawatt per hour. The primary products of the Company are De-oiled cake, crude oil, refined edible soya oil and other consumer products. Its soya products consist of Soya Namkin (Ready to Eat Snack Food), Wheat Atta, Jawar Atta, Besan, Soya Wadi, Nuggets, and Oil. It sells its Soya Refined Oil under the brand name Rasoya. It also has a wheat processing plant, soya nugget manufacturing unit and also manufacturers various kinds of soya flours. The scrip is likely to give superb returns in the next 4-5 months period]
Saturday, 25 April 2015: Edible oils manufacturer Ruchi Soya has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Maharashtra government to invest Rs 300 crore in the value chains of soybean and tomato in the state.

Almost 1.25 lakh tomato growers and 1.5 lakh soybean grower farmers in the state would have direct market for their produce.

United Phosphorous has also signed a MoU with the state government to upgrade its crop care centres to 100 to ensure minimum post harvesting losses for the farmers, an official release said.

Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis on Friday held a round table meeting with 28 industry representatives engaged in agri-products and processing.


Fadnavis told the industry captains that state government has decided to scrap cess being levied on purchases made outside the APMC (Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee) and has lifted ban on stocking oil seeds.

The round table was aimed at increasing public private partnership for integrated agricultural development (PPP-IAD) which was started in 2012-13. In 2012-13 it was with 20 private companies and with participation of one million farmers, 10 value chains were envisaged and now after today's meeting, a total of 30 value chains are targeted with participation of five million farmers with 60 private companies in the PPP-IAD. Crops like maize, rice, soybean, pulses, cotton, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables would be incorporated in these value chains.

For providing crop insurance the government has roped in Swiss Re, the re-insurance company, for a pilot project for surveying the villages via satellite. Fadnavis said that the satellite imageries would enable us to provide individual field level information so that information would be accurate.

Courtesy: DNA India
Wind energy target of 60 GW by 2022 is easily achievable: CPI-ISB report
While wind power is already cheaper than the total cost of power from a new build imported coal plant, solar power will become competitive with power from imported coal by 2019, adds the report
Photo: Simply Decoded
Mumbai  April 18, 2015: With the appropriate policies, the Budget 2015 target of 60 GW of wind power by 2022 can easily be met with minimal government financial support, thus providing a cost-effective path for meeting India’s renewable energy targets, according to a new report from Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) and the Indian School of Business (ISB) – titled ‘Reaching India’s renewable energy targets cost-effectively’.

In the report, CPI found that, in absence of any subsidies, wind power is already cheaper than the total cost of power from a new build imported coal plant, at Rs 5.87/kWh for electricity from wind power and Rs 6.81/kWh for electricity from imported coal. The comparison with imported coal is key because this is the fuel that additional renewable energy will likely replace, rather than domestic coal or natural gas, which are limited in supply. The analysis also finds that wind power will continue to remain competitive beyond 2022.

Because the government has a constrained budget, a cost-effective policy path to achieving its renewable energy targets is crucial. These findings suggest that wind power can provide a cost-effective path to meeting targets, and that the government should encourage rapid deployment of wind power through policy measures that address non-cost related barriers to wind power, for example challenges in land acquisition and delays in environmental clearances.

CPI also found that, as the costs of installing solar power continue to decrease; solar power will become competitive with power from imported coal by 2019, and will require some government support from 2015 to 2019. In order to achieve the target of 20 GW of solar power by 2022, the total cost of government support would be Rs 46.97 billion, or Rs 2.71/W, under the current federal policy of accelerated depreciation.

However, this government support could be significantly reduced - by 96% - by replacing the current federal policy with reduced cost, extended tenor debt. Under reduced cost, extended tenor debt, the cost of support would fall to Rs 1.81 billion, or Rs 0.1/W. To accelerate solar power sooner to meet the Budget 2015 goal of 100 GW of solar, revised upwards from 20 GW, it would need to provide more financial support.

Gireesh Shrimali, fellow at Climate Policy Initiative and lead author of the study, said, “India has ambitious targets for renewable energy, however, with a limited budget, it’s important that the Government of India take the most cost-effective policy path. Wind presents a clear win-win. Adjusting current policy to more effectively deploy solar would also help lower costs.”

Shanghvi to invest Rs.400 Cr more in new wind energy
[Editor: According to the media reports, India’s wind power capacity increased in 2014-15 by 2,297 MW, marginally higher than its achievement of 2,146 MW in the previous year. However, many analysts are of the view that the current year’s installation would cross the 3,000 MW-mark; numbers not seen since 2011-12]
April 30, 2015: Sun Pharmaceuticals founder Dilip Shanghvi will invest Rs.400 crore in a 50:50 joint venture with Suzlon for setting up wind projects across India, and will also provide working capital for 1,200 MW over the next two years.

This investment, from the Shangvi family, is over and above the ₹1,800 crore shelled out earlier this year to buy a 23 per cent stake in Suzlon Energy.

The new JV, in which Suzlon will also invest Rs.400 crore by way of equity, will be set up this fiscal and will develop multiple wind power projects totalling 450-500 MW in four States over the next two years, said Kirti Vagadia, Group Head-Finance, Suzlon.

Shangvi will also give an additional working capital facility for 1,200 MW over a two-year period, Vagadia added, but refused to convert this into rupee terms.

Senvion sale
On Thursday, the Pune-based wind energy company announced the completion of the sale of its wholly owned subsidiary, Senvion SE, to US-based Centerbridge Partners.

The transaction closure, which follows an agreement signed with Centerbridge in January 2015, has brought in around Rs.7,000 crore of cash into Suzlon’s kitty.

“Around Rs.5,000 crore of this will be used for debt reduction, while the balance will be used for volume growth of the business,” Vagadia said.

After this, Suzlon’s (reduced) outstanding debt will stand at Rs.10,000 crore, including Rs.2,000 crore of foreign currency convertible bonds due to mature in 2020, he added.

Elaborating on utilisation of the funds, Vagadia said in addition to investing inland and building of a development pipeline, Suzlon will undertake capital expenditure to set up three to four new manufacturing facilities across India for longer rotor blades.

On plans for further sale of more non-core assets, Vagadia said: “We will be selling three kinds of non critical assets – component manufacturing businesses, old manufacturing units and office buildings. But only to the right buyer at the right price.”


Sunday, May 03, 2015

DO YOU KNOW?
According to a well known financial weekly, more than 300 companies are planning to come up with IPO, which include Indigo Airlines, DM Healthcare and Narayan Netralay. The SEBI has given approval to 10 IPOs to raise Rs.4625 crore, while 14 companies are waiting for go ahead to raise Rs.4842 crore. This is believed to be the best chance for the P/E investors to offload their stake.

Recently VRL Logistics IPO got 74 times subscription, while INOX Wind got 14 times subscription. REC and Coal India also got bid worth Rs.2000 crore and Rs.1200 crore respectively. Thus the secondary market is witnessing correction, while primary market is witnessing bull run.

Does this mean that the FIIs are withdrawing money from the secondary market only to invest in these IPOs; slated later this year (FY16) ? This might also mean that, all the correction in the 2ndary market is probably not due to MAT related issues. Isn't it? 

Therefore, the moot point: is the correction in the Indian markets, triggered by the FIIs, somewhat synthetic in nature?
Gitanjali Gems gets fresh Rs 4,300-cr recast
[Editor: When any equity market turns bearish (or too volatile), then traders generally look for safe Heavens like Gold. Therefore, a rally in the scrip of Gitajali Gems Ltd (Rs.42.25) is likely to start soon. 
However, the sector still suffers from some nagging problems, which are still to be sorted out in favour of the Gems and Jewelry Companies. Also, though Narendra Modi did lot of "Tall-Talking" before the Lok Sabha elections last year, his government did very little till now to alleviate the problems of this sector]
Mumbai | April 30, 2015: Working capital loans of R4,300 crore given to Gitanjali Gems have been restructured under the joint lenders’ forum (JLF) mechanism, as per documents examined by FE and bankers privy to the discussions. Credit to the branded jewellery maker has also been enhanced by R1,000 crore.

A senior banker familiar with the development said the government had written to the consortium of lenders earlier this month, asking why some of them had delayed the disbursement of loans that had been sanctioned. The Gitanjali

exposure was classified as a special mention account-2 (SMA-2) last year after the company failed to fulfil its payment obligations for more than 60 days, triggering the formation of a JLF. The consortium comprises 21 lenders.

For the nine months ended December 31, 2014, the company’s net sales fell 17% to R7,994 crore, over the corresponding period in 2013, while finance costs rose 30% to R700 crore. Net profit for the period was flat at R125 crore.

Gitanjali’s consolidated sales fell 24% year-on-year (y-o-y) to R12,436 crore in FY14, driving down the Ebitda (earnings before interest tax, depreciation and amortisation) by 22% to R812 crore. Higher finance costs, which jumped 79% to R705 crore , saw net profit nearly halve to R34 crore. The net debt at the end of March 2014 rose 62% to R8,361 crore.

The company announced on April 21 that it is consolidating the business at group level to improve cash flows and reduce costs in various activities such as sourcing, manufacturing, distribution, exporting and retailing. It proposed the merger of three of its subsidiaries Asmi Jewellery India and Spectrum Jewellery with Nakshatra Brands and also the merger of Gitanjali Jewellery Retail and Gitanjali Lifestyle with GILI India.

In its Q3FY15 results posted in February 2015, the company’s auditors drew attention to five issues identified in Gitanjali’s books. They pointed to the “overdrawing and non-payment of interest and charges on bank facilities for nine month period ending December 31, 2014”.

The company’s response was that “the business of the group continues to be impacted due to regulatory restrictions on import of gold and unfavourable INR vs USD currency fluctuation. The consortium of bankers have assessed enhanced working capital requirements and the sanctions are awaited with modified terms.

The group’s overdrawn position in the working capital account as on December 31, 2014 amounted to around Rs 146.69 crore which is mainly on account of non-servicing of interest and charges.”

Auditors also noted that 13 of the company’s subsidiaries have a negative net worth, and Gitanjali replied saying that the subsidiaries are “strategic investments” and that the “holding company along with the management of respective subsidiaries are considering various options of reviving and making them viable”.

The company has not paid self-assessment tax for AY 2013-14 of around R58.23 crore and indirect taxes of about R9.57 crore at the end of Q3FY15. Gitanjali has also sought rescheduling its repayment of ECB loans with IDBI, with the RBI providing in-principle approval for the rescheduling, the company said.

The gems and jewellery sector has been under stress owing to a rise in customs duty, RBI-imposed restrictions on gold imports and a volatile rupee.

“Gitanjali being one of the largest players in the Indian jewellery space was also impacted by these regulations,” Gitanjali’s CMD Mehul Choksi said in the company’s FY14 annual report. “During (FY14), the company witnessed a decline in turnover due to the reduced gold jewellery sales. These regulatory changes also impacted margins of the company. 

Further, the company had to significantly rationalise its operational costs primarily the manpower and administration costs.” 

When approached for a response, the company said it was not in a position to respond immediately.

Courtesy: The Financial Express
Rolta inches up on launching Rolta OneView 6.0
[Editor: The scrip of Rolta India Ltd, a multinational organization headquartered in India and a leading provider of innovative IT solutions for many vertical segments, including federal and state governments, defence and homeland security has also been recommended as a BUY, by a well know investment weekly from Gujarat, in their recent publications. The scrip fell after Glaucus Research Group California LLC, came out with a report, which the (Rolta India Ltd's) management termed as "baseless", pointing out that it "has factual errors and inconsistencies"]
Apr 30 2015: Rolta is currently trading at Rs. 116.00, up by 0.05 points or 0.04% from its previous closing of Rs. 115.95 on the BSE.

The scrip opened at Rs. 115.70 and has touched a high and low of Rs. 116.75 and Rs. 113.75 respectively. So far 1,98,000 shares were traded on the counter.

The BSE group 'B ' stock of face value Rs. 10 has touched a 52 week high of Rs. 196.80 on 28-Feb-2015 and a 52 week low of Rs. 72.40 on 09-May-2014.

Last one week high and low of the scrip stood at Rs. 135.05 and Rs. 105.35 respectively. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 1,869.00 crore.

The promoters holding in the company stood at 51.09% while Institutions and Non-Institutions held 15.51% and 32.75% respectively.

Rolta has launched Rolta OneView 6.0 with greatly enhanced features and functionality to provide unprecedented business value to asset-intensive enterprises. It has 3000+ pre-built performance metrics and business-value scenarios tailored to specific needs of individual verticals, including Oil & Gas, Chemicals, Power & Water Utilities, and Transportation.

Rolta OneView 6.0 is unique in providing an out-of-the box enterprise-level solution that is Cloud-ready and addresses the needs of enterprises to rapidly exploit the business value of Big Data and OT-IT integration through diagnostic, predictive and prescriptive analytics, to achieve faster ROI. It provides seamless integration and tracking of enterprise Balance Score Card and operational strategy maps with role-based KPIs.

Rolta OneView effectively leverages platforms like SAP HANA for in-memory analytics to deliver key performance indicators, a critical need of businesses to achieve operational excellence. By leveraging Rolta's patented technologies that facilitate real time integration of data from disparate Operations and Business systems, Rolta OneView offers cross-functional visibility of Operations, Assets, Maintenance, Reliability, Supply Chain, Health Safety/Environment, Projects and Business insights across multiple sites of an enterprise.

Rolta India conducts business in India, and internationally through subsidiaries in various countries. Rolta is a leading provider of innovative IT solutions built around its intellectual property for many vertical segments, including Federal and State Governments, Defence, Homeland Security, Utilities, Process, Power, Financial Services, Manufacturing, Retail, and Healthcare.

Courtesy: Live Mint