Coronavirus and insanity of draconian Lockdown 

Before, I begin let me put a few statistics on the plate so that you can understand how an issue has been pumped up so much that common people thinks that there is no cure for Covid -19: Most of the data has been taken from WHO and other authentic websites :

#An estimated 45% of all deaths from rabies

occur in south east Asia. The situation is especially pronounced in India, which reports about 18 000 to 20 000 cases of rabies a year and about 36% of the world’s deaths from the disease

#A total of 1.5 million people died from TB in 2018

(including 251 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS).

In 2018, the 30 high TB burden countries accounted for 87% of new TB cases. Eight countries account for two thirds of the total, with

India leading the count, followed by, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa.

It is estimated that about 40% of the Indian

population is infected with TB bacteria, the vast majority of whom have latent TB rather than TB disease. Now let me give a few statistics below --in the bracket is the population of the state. 

Gujarat - 106,451 (6.8 Cr) 

Maharashtra  --140,068 (12.3 Cr) 

Bengal - 89,503 (9.8 Cr) 

UP -- 305,626 (22.50 Cr)

India -- 1,613,504 (1,340,092,226)

You can see from above that Gujarat which is under the BJP rule since around 2 decades has to  highest Tuberculosis cases. 

#Every year, on an average, 3-5 million cases of seasonal flu and 290,000-650,000 deaths are reported globally. In high-income countries, deaths occur in elderly (65 and older) while in the low and middle income countries like India, 99 per cent of deaths are in children under five with influenza-related lower respiratory tract infections.

#Now let us Zoom to Coronavirus:

• Cases which had an outcome:184,875
• Recovered / Discharged: 150,939 (82%)
• Death: 33,936 (18%).

--------------------------

• Currently Infected Patients: 536,176
• In Mild Condition: 509,394 (95%)
• Serious or Critical: 26,782 (5%)

Which means when the severity of Coronavirus has come down to only 5%, the Narendra Modi government has extended the Lockdown. Doesn't it look a little fishy? 

2ndly, though the coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 199 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship, but if you see the charts you will see that barring a few counties like the Italy, Spain,  US, etc,  the death figures  are hardly to be talked about.

Moreover,  the government of India is asking to the common people wear mask,  when the virus can be transmitted by hand from the masks to the eyes of a healthy person. Hence, I have failed to understand the logic of Narendra Modi's government. I think the WHO who has not advocated wearing a mask has more meat in their suggestions or advisory. The dangerous part is that there are doubts regarding the efficacy of non N95 masks for blocking Covid -19 pathogens. This may give a false sense of security to individuals, leading to him not washing his hands or taking other necessary precautions. 

Moreover, partial lockdown may be good for arresting community spreading of Covid - 19, but then harassing the common man who has gone out to buy foods and medicines is wrong and needs strong action by the government in power, against the erring police personal.

The highest COVID-19 mortality rate has been recorded in Italy with 9%, while Iran's mortality rate is at 7.8%, followed by Spain at 6%. Indonesia where there is no country wide Lockdown, the death due to coronavirus is 8%, which means out of 100 patients 92 have recovered.

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MORE COMING.... 

Draconian Lockdown and Coronavirus 

~~Sumon Mukhopadhyay 

Indian has perhaps adopted the Chinese model to contain the spread of coronavirus. But China is a communist country where state plays a major role in providing social security to its citizens. In comparison, even after around 6 years of Narendra Modi's rule, our economy is in shambles. During,  the NDA government's rule the Indian economy has gone from bad to worse. 

Recently the FM has spoken about Rs.1.70 lakh crore package for the poor and distressed. This has made the Sensex and Nifty rally. While apparently this may look good on papers, but with factories closing down and government distributing free cash, we could be heading toward a demand pull inflation if this Lockdown continues beyond 15th April,  2020.

Already, the price of essential commodities have started to inch up and this is likely to get more severe in the coming days, as India starts to grapple with no fresh production from factories. 

Moreover, daily laborers are already having a tough time,  after the collapse of the Agriculture, Real Estate, Gems & Jewelry and Textile Sectors -- the four prominent pillars of employment generation. India under Narendra Modi's rule is not able to compete with small countries like Bangladesh,  South Korea and Vietnam in the field of textiles. 

While Indian population has grown by leaps and bounds during the last 6 years of NDA rule, the government has failed to bring in strict policy measured to contain the flood. Now, with CAA coming into force we could see further uptick in population graph, if the Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists and Christians starts to migrate to India -- we have perhaps shot ourselves on the foot. The ideal condition should have been to grant all those who have been declared as D - voters with a warning that any further influx from the neighbouring countries will be pushed back. 

Meanwhile,  though Narendra Modi continued to blame the Congress party for all the ills in India, his own boat didn't perform well in high seas, with GDP growth plummeting to below 5% in a decade. I feel he would continue to maintain hard anti - Congres stance because that sells well in India. 

The question also,  which is often not talked about is that India has three tier system to Adress the needs and aspirations of people:

#State List 

#Union List

#Concurrent List. 

How come Narendra Modi continues to blame the congress party when it is non existent in states like Bengal and Tamil Nadu since ages, is a question, to be answered. A large part of the GST goes to the states for the implementation of their policies. Hence,  I feel it is a big LIE that Congress Party is the epitome of all problems in India. 

Switching topic let me tell you, that I feel this economic package is inadequate for a large group of poor people who survive on daily wages. 

Moreover, with the factory production going zero, the GST collections is also likely to hit new lows, which will force the NDA government to borrow more to plug the fiscal deficit. 

In such a scenario, I feel Lockdown for a prolonged period is a sure shot prescription for disaster. 

The other day I was in Tarapur Industrial area near Boisar, I never witnessed such quietness and tranquility as the wheels of factories came to a grinding halt. 

In other words Physical Isolation is perhaps not the right strategy for India, where there are no social protection schemes, for the daily laborers. Moreover, if MDR Tuberculosis pathogens are not able to do much harm to India, how much will Coronavirus do,  is a matter of conjecture. 

Till this report is being penned there were 694 cases of coronavirus and 16 deaths. This figure is very small considering India having to house a population of around 135 crore -- that pales when we consider the figures in Italy,  Spain and the US to name a few, with a much smaller population. We are perhaps panicking more than we should.. 😮😮

If we go by the figures then 2.56 million people died from pneumonia in 2017. The NHP recorded 41,996,260 cases and 3,740 deaths from acute respiratory infections across India in 2018. In 2017, acute respiratory infections accounted for 69% of the total cases of communicable diseases and caused 23% of such deaths.

The current figures of death due to Coronavirus epidemic is nothing as compared to the above numbers. 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to ape the west without thinking for a minute that India has very fragile economic conditions and further tormenting the parameters could force it into severe pain, which may take long - long time to come back to form. 

Therefore, I would suggest the NDA government to not to extend the timeline beyokd 31 March,  2020, instead the government should suggest methods to make our immune system very strong so that it can work as bulwark, again deadly Coronavirus.

I feel that it is high time that the NARENDRA Modi government starts distributing  Vitamin C free, which is out of market in most Medical Stores in Bombay. The government should set up teams of doctors to do daily check ups of factory workes so that any new case is nipped in the bud and production can start again. 

Anyway, I have started taking these multivitamin tablets from today, after a chemist prescribed its name; when I asked for A to Z from Alkem Laboratories Ltd. The price of latter has shot up from Rs.84 to Rs.110 in matter of few months. This is a cheap Vitamin costing only Rs.30.85 for 15 tablets. Only problem seems to be the size of Tablets. I would suggest you not to swallow them upright but break into two parts; if you are not habituated to gulping such large tablets. 

You can also think of Recovit from Lupin Labs. I used to take it regularly, earlier. 

This is the new brand for me and quite cheap. This also has 150 mg of vitamin C necessary for re-energizing your immune system. 

My suggestions:

1. Take at least 500 mg of Vitamin C for 15 days OR

2. Take a multivitamin which has at least 150 mg of Vitamin C. 

3. Don't exert yourself too much, take adequate rest.

Take agood food (Dal - Rice, Butter and Boiled Potato or any vegetable or boiled Chana is good food. There is no need to run after milk and/or eggs at this time ).

4. Avoid HALAL Chicken or Mutton. Don't eat Fish or Turtle meat. 

5. Take lot of water and remain busy in work, instead of gossiping whole day on Coronavirus. 

Be Healthy and be  Happy!! God bless you all... 🙏🙏

P. N: Please do consult your physician or doctor before taking any of the above (mentioned) medicines.

Sumon Speaks on: Coronavirus and wearing of masks

Boisar Station on 25 March, 2020
from my mobile Camera. 

You must be aware that 25 March,  2020 night around 11 pm near Boisar (Bridge), Mumbai Metropolis, when there was virtually no one on the street, except a few speeding vehicles and cars I was harassed and abused by Maharashtra police; who even misbehaved with me. 

If they had politely told me that you need to wear a mask, I would have bought the same from a nearby medicine shop. But they went on abusing me and misbehaving with me, asking me to pay a hanky over my nose. This is was the banality which hit my sentiments very hard. In fact it was me,  who suggested to buy a mask,  if it was at all necessary in a road, where there was  hardly any sign of human presence as it was around 11 pm.

The point is Indians are already disturbed by the coronavirus epidemic, spreading across the length and breadth of the country and if a person employed to protect them becomes predators, then I feel it is the most unfortunate thing to happen at this time. 

I appreciate CM,  Shri Uddhav Thackeray and Deputy CM, Shri Ajit Pawar's efforts to rein in the situation, but then at what cost? 

Harassing and misbehaving with a person who is out there to bring food and rations, apart from withdrawing money from an ATM; travelling a long distance? 

Coming back to the topic, I would like to say that when a white top constable touched my hair and said, "Are they real", he was actually risking his life to coronavirus exposure, because I'm a stranger to him and could be a potential carrier of life threatening Coronavirus, right? 

It seemed he was drunk too,  but not sure. Other among the three constables who intercepted me, why was he behaving in such a strange manner as compared to the other two? This is a question which Mumbai police needs to answer now, before it is too late!!

It is strange why the police force has not been made aware, not to touch the hair or head of a stranger with bare hands,  tr, when government itself has been crying hoarse asking the people not to touch mouth or eyes after coming in contact with an infected person or a healthy looking carrier of Covid  - 19; without washing hands thoroughly with a disinfect or at least with soaps.

Hence, it was oxymoron for this policeman to advice wearing a mask at such odd hours to a virtually marooned person on one hand, while touching the head of an unknown person, who as mentioned earlier could be a live carrier of the deadly disease.

Even if I was a carrier,  in absence of human presence nearby, at such odd hours, it is virtually hilarious to force someone to buy mask at gun point. 

Therefore, there  are a few issues here which needs to be discussed here:

#Is wearing a mask necessary in a place where there is virtually no one around?

#What is the official WHO directive on wearing a mask

To know a bit on the same I decided to cull internet and here is what I found:

#Since the start of the coronavirus outbreak some places have fully embraced wearing face masks, and anyone caught without one risks becoming a social pariah.

#In mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand and Taiwan, the broad assumption is that anyone could be a carrier of the virus, even healthy people. So in the spirit of solidarity, you need to protect others from yourself.

#Some of these governments are urging everyone to wear a mask, and in some parts of China you could even be arrested and punished for not wearing one.

#But in many other parts of the world, from the UK and the US to Sydney and Singapore, it's still perfectly acceptable to walk around bare-faced.

In East Asia, many people are used to wearing masks when they are sick or when it's hayfever season, because it's considered impolite to be sneezing or coughing openly.

#Some argue that ubiquitous mask wearing, as a very visual reminder of the dangers of the virus, could actually act as a "behavioural nudge" to you and others for overall better personal hygiene.

#People who do not wear masks in these places have also been stigmatised, to the point that they are shunned and blocked from shops and buildings.

Nobody else needs to wear a mask, and there are several reasons for that.

One is that a mask is not seen as reliable protection, given that current research shows the virus is spread by droplets and contact with contaminated surfaces. So it could protect you, but only in certain situations such as when you're in close quarters with others where someone infected might sneeze or cough near your face.

This is why, experts say,  frequent hand washing with soap and water is far more effective.

Removing a mask requires special attention to avoid hand contamination, and it could also breed a false sense of security. Now let us see what WHO says about wearing a masks.

In Asia - here in Singapore, the government has urged the public not to wear masks to ensure adequate supplies for healthcare workers, and most people walk around without one. There is substantial public trust in the government, so people are likely to listen to such advice.

Bottomline: It seems the Maharashtra Police high on using slang, abusive vocabulary and misbehaviour towards common people is less prepared to deal with the deadly coronavirus. 

I therefore, request the CM,  Shri Uddhav Bhau Thackeray and his deputy Shri Ajit Pawar to look into this matter urgently, so that common people like us, who depend on outside food to remain alive, don't get harassed by the Mahararashtra Police or those in charge of giving security to the citizens of India.

Coronavirus and police misbehaviour in Boisar (Mumbai Metropolis)

Photo: India Railinfo

Boisar is the largest industrial suburb in Mumbai Metropolitan Region of Maharashtra and adjacent to Gujarat state. It was earlier a part of Thane district but now comes under newly form Palghar district.

Its Tarapur industrial area has factories of some of the well known companies like: Jindal Steel, Tata Steel, Lupin, Viraj, Everest Kanto Cylinders,  etc. etc.

Tarapur has an atomic power station, under the supervision of BARC. Till now the city has no Coronavirus patient: though I have seen people putting big signboards asking outsiders or strangers not to enter housing societies and cul - de - sacs.

The latest news from the coronavirus outbreak  shows that Italy and Spain have overtaken China as far as the number of deaths are concerned.  The government of India has declared a 21 day Lockdown in India to avert any escalation of the  crisis. But has done precious little to help those people who depend on eateries or mess for their daily food requirements. What will a bachelor like me do in Mumbai Metropolis if suddenly all the hotels are forced to down their shutters without showing them an alternative route?

The latest news on Coronavirus Outbreak says COVID-19 cases in India has crossed 600. This is very insignificant considering that India has around 130 crore population. The number of deaths have also not topped 15 mark.

While we can hear Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal speaking in the same voice that  discrimination against medical staff won't be tolerated, but both are silent on the police barbarity on the common people;  especially those who go out to buy food or have patients in hospitals.

Just understand the scenario. Say a person who is staying in Umroli is under medical treatment for Tuberculosis in KEM Hospital, Parel, Bombay. Now, in a complete Lockdown state how will he or she visit the hospital and get treated? In absence of proper medication he/she will die of Tuberculosis before even Covid - 19 coming and kissing him on the cheeks.

Moreover, if a person really gets Covid  - 19 attack, how will he reach to quality health care centres from Umroli or Kelwa to say Parel or Bandra or Sion or even Borivli? He/she will die without proper medical attention.

The government of Maharashtra should look into this aspect.

Now,  coming to the 2nd point of police brutality against the common citizens, highlighting my case. The internet is agog with videos showing how the police is mercilessly weilding "Lathis" on passerbys and on those riding the two wheelers.

While,  care should be taken to stop unnecessary loitering around the streets, but the police should be polite on those like me, who genuinely have to go out to buy food and medicines. Or have to loiter from one ATM to another in search of cash.

Photo: India Rail Info

Today, I was coming on foot from Tarapur (near Boisar, Dist: Palghar) after trying my luck at a number of ATMs. without succeeding.  I had food packets in my hand and had headphones on my ears and a torch on my hand. 

When I came near Boisar Bridge (east to west bridge),  I was beconed by a couple of policemen. One with white shirt, probably partially drunk started asking me unpleasant questions. He then came near me, pulled my hair and asked if they were real or if I was wearing a wig of sorts. When he found they were real he started misbehaving more,  though I was pleading that I had gone to buy food as most of the nearby shops were closed. 

He continued his abusive tongue along with another one with a khaki dress.  He asked why I was not wearing mask. The question surprised me as the time was around 11 pm at night and there was virtually none in the streets except occasional car and bikes.

I said if a mask is that important at this hour I would buy one from a nearby chemist shop. On hearing this both of them and another police constable sitting outside police Chowki got very irritated. The white shirt one asked me to cover my face with a hanky... which was simply hilarious. On this I said I'll buy a mask immediately.

I was forced to buy a mask at that hour at gun point, apart from showering me with the choicest of abuses.

Maharashtra police is known for their use of slang vocabulary, but I never knew it can go to such level,  for such a small matter.

I urge the Chief Minister, Uddhav Bhau Thackeray to kindly look into such incedents of police manhandlings, so that common persons don't suffer.

Before I end let me give you a positive statistics: Covid  - 19 has a fatality rate of only 2% and hence one should not get unduly worried.

2ndly, a mask cannot stop the spread of disease as in any case you will cough and virus will spread with sputum. So mask is basically used to protect a person from a diseased person by not allowing the virus to directly enter through mouth or nose. Moreover, anyone trying to stop virus by the use of handkerchief is stupidity.

As mentioned earlier, the white shirt policeman was asking me to do that.....which simply does not makes sense, as the pores will be too big for virus entry..

Hope,  the Maharashtra government will ask their police force to stop acting like a government "Mastan" and create nuisance for the common citizen like me (the Boisar Bridge episode).

Stay Healthy and Stay Safe!! Protect yoursleves from the savage like policemen, who harass genuine people when they go out to buy food; after days'of hard work. 

Tit - bits

The US Stocks surged on Tuesday, rebounding from their worst day in more than three decades — as Wall Street cheered White House plans that could inject $1 trillion into the U.S. economy to cushion the damage caused Sue to the outbreak  of the coronavirus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,048.79 points higher, or 5.2%, at 21,237.31. It briefly dipped below 20,000 for the first time since February 2017 before bouncing back. The S&P 500 was up 6% to use at 2,529.19 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 6.2% to end the day at 7,334.78.

Meanwhile, Australian share market finished sharp higher on Tuesday, 17 March 2020, as investors ran for bottom fishing across the board, thanks to Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) injection of A$8.8 billion liquidity into the system and promised to announce a new package of stimulus measures on Thursday...

Back home, the Nifty 50 index lost 230.35 points or 2.50% to settle at 8,967.05. It reversed from an intraday high of 9,403.80. The index closed below 9000 mark for the first time since 10 March 2017. However,  it is good to see the Nifty not able to break 8700. Hence, for the moment the correction is over though the VIX is still at alarming levels at 75.91 levels. The VIX crossed 80 yesterday before correcting a bit.

The market breadth was positive. On the BSE, 975 shares rose and 695 shares fell. A total of 75 shares were unchanged. With today's decline, the Nifty 50 index has fallen 27.86% from its record high of 12,430.50 hit on 20 January 2020.

I would like to say that the bull market will start to get full bloom by the 2nd week of April, 2020. However, you can start picking good stocks which have corrected substantially: NFL (Rs.19), SAIL (Rs.28.30), Tata Steel (Rs.282.75), Tata Steel BSL (Rs.17.85), 63 Moons Technologies (Rs.61.50), Deepak Fertilisers (Rs.69.05), Tata Motor  (Rs.77.95), JK Lakshmi Cement (Rs.234.40), Allahabad Bank (Rs.8.10), etc. 

If you can now invest Rs.3/5 lakhs now, I can assure that you can get atleast 30% return from the recommended prices. If you come to me through profit sharing scheme, then I can guide where to invest. I do concentrated trading which means, I invest only in 2/3 stocks. I belive over diversification does not give the desired returns and is a sure shot prescription for disaster. 
Moreover, if you want to trade in my account without opening a demat account then that is also possible. I'll give you up-to 20 times leverage in Sensex stocks for day trading - - minimum investment Rs.2 lakhs. 

Tit - bits

Yesterday, the 30-share BSE Sensex settled 2,919.26 points or 8.18% lower at 32,778.14 while the broader Nifty slumped 868.25 points or 8.30% to close at 9,590.15.

It is interesting to note that while the Nifty marked its biggest intraday drop since October 2012, the Sensex recorded its largest daily fall in over a decade.

Though the immediate  support levels for Nifty are placed at 9,385/ 9,180, I feel the Nifty is likely to test 8700 on the downside due to panic created by Choronavirus outbreak.  You may buy 8700 put at around Rs.85/90 for targets of Rs.120.

Photo: Frontline 

#A sell call was given in Yes Bank Ltd (Rs.25.05) in my last post when the share price tanked to Rs.17.45 yesterday, before closing at Rs.25.05.

Meanwhile, there are media reports that The State Bank of India (SBI) will buy YES Bank’s shares worth Rs.7,250 crore at Rs.10 per share, subject to regulatory approvals. This is a peanut considering the proportion of the problematic area. 

Also, the media is agog with the news that big bull Rakhesh Jhunjhuwala, DMart (Avenue Supermarts) owner Radhakishan Damani and PremjiInvest are likely to join the Yes Bank rescue consortium. I feel no smart investor will take stake in a collapsing bank.

It doesn't make sense, because a bank operates basically on borrowed funds. So,  if there is a hit on the reputation, tell me who will put their hard earned money in such a bank? 

Photo: The Financial Times 

Moreover, India is not US that half of its population will live on mortgage loans. In a slowing economy, the loan offtake will also be less. When even at such an interest rates, established banks are not able to push credit growth too much, it would be Utopian to think that to happen in case of a sick bank. 

Market participants will have to wait till later this month to get an idea of the true extent of the problem at Yes Bank when it declares its third-quarter results.

Hereto we are in the dark about the magnitude of the hole in Yes Bank's books.

It is pertinent to mention here that, in the 3rd quarter, Yes Bank's asset quality and deposits deteriorated sharply, but the RBI kept silent to prevent a run on the bank and because Yes Bank was still wooing international investors to raise capital.

I feel Yes Bank will only survive if it taken over by a large bank or merged. Otherwise we could see the share price falling  to Below Rs.5 in the coming days. Those who are still invested are suggested to exit  and not enter till we know more clearly, the condition of its finances. 

The fall of Yes Bank is likely to have severe repercussions on India's economic front, as it was the 4th largest private sector bank; so be prepared for the worst to come. 

Another thing: with the kind of quality we are having persons occupying the post of Prime Minister, the RBI governor and Finance Minister, I don't see much hope in the future of Yes Bank. I'll be happy if I'm proved wrong and India economy escapes its cascading negative effects. 

Those who voted Narendra Modi government to power in the last elections are themselves to be blamed for the current state of the Indian economy.  Even the smaller countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Hungary, Ghana, South Sudan, Dominican Republic, etc are doing much better than India. It is a shame for us... Now we are already in a stagflation stage....and if the situation continues for another quarter we could slip into the black hole of deflationary stage!!

Conclusion: As we sow so we reap. If you allow an incompetent person to become PM of this great country, then.... 

Tit - bits

In the US,  the S&P 500 ended yesterday, 4.9% lower at 2,741.38 and just short of a bear market. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.7% to 7,952.05 and was also about 19% below its all-time high -- a 20% decline is considered a bear market on Wall Street.

Losses intensified on Wednesday's trading after the World Health Organization declared the  coronavirus outbreak an official global pandemic. The number of coronavirus cases around the world totaled more than 100,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In the U.S. alone, more than 1,000 cases have been confirmed. 

This increase in cases though adds fears of further escalation of the disease and calls for government intervention but I feel will have little effect on global growth. 

Back home, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 62.45 points or 0.18% to close at 35,697.40. The index rose 386.56 points, or 1.08% to hit the day's high of 36,021.51 in afternoon trade. The Nifty 50 index shed 2.55 points or 0.02% at 10,448.90. It jumped 93.65 points, or 0.90% to hit the day's high of 10,545.

In the broader market, the BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.89% and the BSE Small-Cap index fell 0.36%. The market breadth was negative. On the BSE, 1048 shares rose while 1430 shares fell. A total of 165 shares remained unchanged.

#The Nifty would continue to get support around 10200/10400 levels where you can do the range play. You can apply the same strategy of yesterday,  for Nifty futures of today,  viz buying at the opening trade and then selling at 30/40 points above your buy price. 

#Yesterday, the shares of Yes Bank Ltd surprisingly closed at Rs.28.80, up 35.53% with intraday high as Rs.29.60, on the news that SBI will be forced to take 49% stake in the bank. But there are few issues here which needs a closer look:

• The 'moratorium-related FAQs' posted on its website, the crisis-hit Yes Bank has said services such as online remittances, clearing of cheques and demand drafts as well as outward payment of EMIs will continue to remain under restriction during the moratorium period.
• It is only inward real-time gross settlement (RTGS) services have been enabled to allow customers to make payments towards their credit card dues and loan obligations from other bank accounts. This doesn't make sense, for those having their money in the bank. 
• It is a Rs.2, Face Value share and at the CMP of Rs. 28.80, it is virtually trading above Rs.100, considering Rs.10 as the face value. 
• The Book Value of Rs.105.67 shown in Moneycontrol.com may NOT represent its current net worth. Suresh Ganapathy, an analyst at Macquarie Capital Securities, wrote that the bank's net worth may indeed be zero, assuming a large portion of its below investment grade assets were wiped off. “Yes Bank has a net worth of Rs 25,000 crore.
• Macquare and JP Morgan has said the current value of its shares should be Re.1. Or in other words,  SBI or other banks should buy its shares at a price of Rs.1, which is 28.80 times lower than the current CMP of Rs.28.80.
• The total exposure of Yes Bank could be over Ra.2.25 lakh crore but of that, the non-performing assets (NPA) are reportedly around Rs.42,000 crore.
• To buy such a high stake the SBI will have to go for an open offer, whose price is still unknown. Moreover, much depends on how the minority shareholders take this FORCED acquisition by SBI, bleeding its balance sheet. It is another question which needs to be answered immediately.

I therefore feel that in the short term the Rs. 2 face value shares of Yes Bank Ltd will peak out out at Rs.29/30 levels and a downward price spiral could start at any time from now, unless we get more clarity on the issue. In such circumstances I would suggest you to either get out of the scrip or book profits if you have entered when it fell to below Rs.10. Too much risk taking is not good.

#The fall in crude oil prices from $52/barrel to below $40/barrel is positive for the Indian economy which imports around 82% of its oil needs but is aiming to bring that down to 67% by 2022 by replacing it with local exploration, renewable energy and indigenous ethanol fuel. India was the third top net crude oil (including crude oil products) importer of 205.3 Mt in 2018. So,  any fall in crude oil price could give an upward flight to Indian Stock market. The crude has been falling since some time due to trade wars among Russia, US Shale Gas and Saudi Arabia.

Tit bits

The SGX Nifty is trading at 10,395 down 120

Photo: Seeking Alpha

points, while the Asian markets are mixed (Straight Times, Taiwan and Shanghai Composite is in Green). Though the threat of coronavirus is hanging over our head like Damocles sword, but for the time being the Nifty is expected to get support around 10900/10200 ranges, where you should think of short term buying. Today,  also we could see a bounce back, which in all probability is likely to get sold off. 

#Today Nifty could open gap, down near 10400, where you can buy Nifty futures corresponding to the spot price, for intraday target of 10560.

#Since gas price cut could take place next month, buy the fundamentally strong shares from the Fertilizer and Power sectors. Some of the names from the fertilizer sector has already been discussed in this blog, you can choose a scrip depending upon your risk profile.

#Buy the shares of Infosys Ltd (Rs.704.45) near Rs.697/700, for short term targets of Rs.800/820.  Company joined Qualcomm Smart Cities Accelerator Programme to offer smart city solutions. This is a great news when the NDA government has been focusing on Smart Cities.

#Buy the shares of Ramky Infrastructure Ltd  (Rs.25.35) near Rs.25.50 for short term targets of Rs.31/32.

#If you are holding the shares of Yes Bank Ltd (Rs. 29), should use this opportunity to lighten your positions. This pop is probably for a large investor to exit. Though it is up around 32% today, I would suggest you to not to enter the counter.It's Rs.10,800 crore of AT-1 bonds could soon turn into wastepaper.
I don't understand how SBI can bale out Yes Bank without the consent of minority shareholders. Why SBI wants to take such a massive hit on its balance sheet?

#Ramagundam Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited in which National Fertiliser Ltd (Rs.21.70) has stake is likely to start production from this month, i.e. March,  2020, according to several media reports. 

Tit - bits

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones swung nearly 1,400 points from its low to its high point over the course of the day. At one point, the index was down by 997 points. However, it recovered and finished down 786 points, or 2.9%, retracting Monday's buoyant rally, during which it recorded its best-point gain in history.

The sharp fall came after the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by a half-point to help insulate the US economy from the global coronavirus outbreak.

It's is to be remembered that lower interest rates are good for stock market as it makes borrowing cheaper, giving a forward kick to credit growth. Also, USD normally falls when interest rates come down. This could ease global growth concerns and also help stem the further depreciation of INR. The US markets have only adjusted to the mean value after that whirlwind rally on Monday.  

Though this fall in Dow along with NASDAQ, the latter nosediving to 8,684.09 or down by 268.08 points (2.99%), will not have much effect on Today's domestic bourses, but we need to be cautious in some sectors which I had already mentioned in my last post, I mean, especially, Construction, Real Estate, Metal, Tourisn, Hotel and Gems & Jewelry companies.

I'm positive on Auto, Power, Chemicals and Speciality Chemicals, Textile, Petrochemicals, Alcohol, FMCG, Agro and fertiliser companies. 

After the US Fed's emergency rare cut,  I have turned neutral on Banks, NBFC, and IT sectors. 

#The next month could bring two superb gifts for the fertilizer and Agro-chemical stocks: news of Urea Decontrol and a massive 25% cut in the gas prices - remain invested in good fertilizer scrips like Deepak Fertilizers & Chemicals (Rs. 90.80), RCF (Rs. 38.15), Chambal Fertilizers (Rs.139.75), National Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.22.55), Zuari Agro Chemicals (Rs.74.85), etc. 

#Buy the shares of Tata Motors Ltd at around Rs.129/130, for short term targets of Rs.151/156. The fall in Crude Oil Prices will help the overall growth of the sector.  Moreover,  the government is working on a mix of regulatory and incentive mechanism to roll out the country’s first ever vehicle scraping policy from 2020, which will phase out all vehicles more than 15 years’ old. This is likely to give a new life to the moribund auto sector. 

Tit - bits

The BSE Sensex is now trading at 38,393.27 up 249.25 points (+0.65%) while the Nifty is seen at 

11,244.70 up 111.95 points (+1.01%).

The broader market advanced. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.87%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.78%. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On the BSE, 1094 shares rose and 717 shares fell. A total of 86 shares were unchanged. 

However, there are so many conflicting parameters that it has become very difficult to predict the market movement in the near time, though most TV analysts are talking of either reducing positions or go for intraday shorts.  

I feel in such a situation it would be better, if you be stock specific and avoid some sectors like Metals, Banks, NBFCs, Gems and Jewellery and Real Estate, while remaining biased on FMCG,  Consumer Durables, Paints, Agri Chemicals, Speciality Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Power, Auto and Fertilizers.

It is pertinent to mention here that a meeting of the Board of Directors of National Fertilizers Ltd is scheduled to be held at Noida (Uttar Pradesh) on Monday, 09th March, 2020 to consider the proposal for the payment of Interim Dividend, if any, for the Financial Year 2019-20.

In another significant development, the government is India has slashed Jet fuel (ATF) prices by a steep 10 per cent, the second straight reduction in rates in as many months, as international oil prices slumped on fears of the spread of coronavirus.

Simultaneously, the rates of non-subsidised  cooking gas (LPG) were cut by Rs.53, wiping away a third of the record Rs.144.50 per cylinder price hike effected last month, according to a price notification issued by state-owned oil firms.

Having said this, I would suggest you to be away from the market at least today and wait for more details to get a clear view of the state of affairs. 

Meanwhile, the unnecessary riots in Delhi, will definitely hit India's image globally and might take a toll on the future FDI investments. 

Most knowledgeable people in Bombay, with whom I spoke are FED up with the policies and actions of the current dispensation in Delhi and wants a regime change. 

This government has the habit of talking of its policies having long term positive effect, but since the stupidity of demonetisation, we are yet to see any marked improvement in India's economic landscape with the GDP growth plummeting to near 5% and GST collections hardly crossing Rs.1.25 lakh crore per month. 

This government is talking of low inflation but when people don't have jobs or face numerous hassles in business, then how will the demand or the purchasing power of the Indians improve?

But then, in the recent times while the CPI has started to spike up,  the growth is nosediving. In this context I would like to salute the captains of India Inc,  who are still performing under this "Tughlaq - ian" administration, with its FM having no connection with the present conditions of the country's macroeconomics. 

Not only that we have a PM, who is seen more in foreign soils than in India. Bringing Donald Trump to India by Narendra Modi and wasting money on his visit, was basically to brand his image and showcase the world that Ahmedabad has now the world's largest cricket stadium -- nothing more than that...

Did Narendra Modi show Mr.Trump, the condition of Tata Nano project in Gujarat,  through which gained much publicity, after demonising Dr. Mamata Bandyopadhyay? 

Besides,  Donald Trump was accompanied by her daughter who is now a Jew, after she got converted to Judaism before marriage. This is also likely to have some effects on India'a relationship with Muslim countries. 

Unfortunately, Indians have voted a party to power,  which neither has any clear cut foreign policy nor any economic roadmap, except that "Hindu  - Hindu", slogan. The people who are now occupying Delhi doesn't speak of how to improve the lives of the poor, who are now at the butt of sufferings, except that "Jai Shree Ram" narrative. 

I say, I don't have a problem if you process Hindutva, but then at what cost? 

Riots?  Bloodbath?  Mayhem? Distrust among Communities? What? 

Looking at the sabre rattling by a section of Hindus and Muslims, I am forced to remember how a vibrant country of Afghanistan and the picturesque Swat Valley in Pakistan (where Gautam Buddha once walked and civilizations intersected)  have been ruined by Civil Wars and Talibanic activities. 

Is India following this patterns..? Perhaps the recent Delhi carnage has something to say on this.......😱😱

In these circumstances I would request my dear blog readers to keep away from the divisive ideas or forces who are out there to destroy the concept called "India" and stay united in this difficult situation. "United we stand, divided we fall".

-: The Indian Markets and Coronavirus: Fear Mongering without data backing:-

The domestic bourses got spooked today due to

Photo: The Street 

twin effects of the fear mongering by the international media on the issue of coronavirus and Moody's cutting India's FY20 growth forecast to 5.40% (from 6.60% earlier).

The coronavirus outbreak has been made a scapegoat to hide the wrong policy decisions of the government of India and the riots in Delhi, post  irresponsible - communally - charged -provocative - speeches by some elements of the Indian political class. 

Anyway,  if we go by the media reports then,  we will see that during the last SAARS attack,  the Chinese GDP growth shrank by a mere 0.50%. This data assumes significance as China contributes to around 16% of the GDP.

However,  India contributes 7.45% and the US 15.20% of the world GDP,  which is a significant figure -- both the countries are almost unaffected by the coronavirus epidemic.

2ndly, the international media is giving only one side of the story, without taking into consideration that if there is a pandemic then production from the affected counties are likely to fall pushing up demand quotient. If factories closes down, will there not be a shortage, especially of essential commodities like food, fertilizers, metals, etc? 

In other words without assessing correctly the demand - supply scenario, crooning the same hashtag of "Supply Chain Getting Affected", doesn't mean much -- if there is a demand shrinkage there would also be production cut. 

Moreover, the fall in WTI Crude to $45.52/barrel, Brent Crude to 50.11/barrel and Natural Gas to $1.717, augurs well for India, especially the Power,  Auto and Fertilizer sectors which are getting sold into.

I feel every opportunity is a BUY for the investors as the Nifty is likely to get a bounce from the oversold positions at 11230/11100, as this overblown fear factor gets subsided by the next week. A bull market builds on too much negativity.

The surge in Bitcoin (2010-2017), Tech Stocks (1995-2000,) and Silver (2009-2011) had the following factors:
#Consistent Rising Prices
#General Exuberance or Euphoria
#Fear of Missing Out.

This time it would be the Fertilizer stocks, if the NDA government walks the talk of decontrol of urea and a cut down in gas prices from April 2010. 

But, having said that, I would like to mention that, like many of you, I also have doubts on implementing abilities of the amateur PM, who is more seen in globe trotting backed by public funds, a "Gun Clerk" type,  President, a FM, who has no connection with the ground realities of Indian macroeconomic scenario and an equally appalling home minister. 

Hope,  the world equity markets, would soon be out of excessive pessimism and crowd mentality, anchored on the coronavirus outbreak. 

Tit - bits

Yesterday Nifty 50 closed below the 200-day

exponential moving average (which was placed at 11,826) declining 119.40 points or 1.01% to 11,678.50, forming yet another bearish candle on daily charts.

However, today Nifty is likely to give a bounce, from 11600 levels, which can be used to build long positions for targets of 11900/12000. I feel the new F&O trading should start with a positive note. Therefore, buy good mid and small cap counters for 3/4 months perspective. 

#You can buy the shares of Ashoka Buildcon Ltd (Rs.92.90) near that Rs.89/90 during intraday dips for short term targets of Rs.102/105. Prabhudas Lilladher is bullish on Ashoka Buildcon has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 167 in its research report dated February 11, 2020.

#Buy the shares of JHS Svendgaard Ltd (Rs.12.75) during intraday dips near Rs. 12/13, for short term targets of Rs.16/17. JHS, which has a manufacturing facility at tax-free zone in Himachal Pradesh, makes toothpaste, toothbrush, and mouthwash for almost all leading brands including Colgate, Dabur, Patanjali, Emami and Apollo. This is a play in the Indian consumption story.

#Buy the shares of Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (Rs.170.15) at around Rs.168/169, for short term targets of Rs.182/191. SL: Rs.165.
The fall in the metal stocks during the last few days was in line with the broad-based bearish trend in the market following reports of hundreds of new cases of Covid-19 infections that were reported over the weekend. China continues to fight the coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 2000 people and disrupted factories and businesses in the world's second-largest economy. However,  I feel the correction has been done away with and it is time to accumulate the scrip near the support levels.

Tit - bits

#The Nifty is expected to see a gap down opening

Photo: WSJ.com

today and will test the support levels at 12020/12000 ranges. I'm not expecting too deep correction at this point of time. Try focussing on good small and mid caps, Nifty remains rangebound around 11800/12150 levels.

While, Nifty will track global developments and the coronavirus epidemic, the action is likely to be seen in specific stocks. With Bumper Ravi sowing on the cards, post monsoon, focus on Agri chemicals related and construction scrips. 

#You can buy the shares of Ashoka Buildcon Ltd near the support of Rs.97/99, for short term targets of Rs.117/121. SL: Rs.93. ICICI Direct has put a target of Rs.120. It has a P/E of 8.71 against the industry P/E of 23.02. I'm expecting a 50% rise in the morning scrip price from the CMP of Rs.99.35 in one year's time.

#At a time when the GST collections are falling and the Indian economy is passing through a grave phase,  Narendra Modi has invited the US President Donald Trump into India, for his own publicity, burning a hole in the exchequer. Till now NARENDRA Modi's much advertised foreign tours have drained out funds more than ROI. I feel this visit by the US,  will also turn out to be a cropper. Human stupidity has no limits.

#There is a recent report in ET,  that Natural gas prices are likely to be cut by a steep 25% in April translating into lower fuel cost.
Prices of natural gas, which is used to produce fertiliser and generate electricity and is also converted into CNG for use in automobiles as fuel and cooking gas for households, are set every six months -- on April 1 and October 1 each year.
This is a great news for those who are holding the shares of Fertilizer,  Power and select auto companies.

Tit - bits

#On Monday (24 February, 2020), the Indian markets are likely to open gap down and the Nifty

is expected to test 1200/11800 zone. The imports from China,  might get costly due to coronavirus epidemic. This will help the companies, who don't use Chinese raw materials to make finished good. However, we could see margin shrinkage in electronic items like TV,  unless their price is raised. But when there is a slowdown in demand, the rise in product prices may actually hit the sales. 

Moreover,  it seems there is a structural breakdown of Indian economy as there is a rise of unemployment along with a raging inflation. Therefore, titillating it with more and more stimulus could lead to hyper inflation.
It is pertinent to mention here that, while,  the US economy is booming, our current dispensation in Delhi, has creatively destroyed, through erroneous policy making. Narendra Modi went to the US at the end of last year ("Howdy Modi") and bluffed the people there, that everything is fine in India. 

#Those who have entered the share of HCC Ltd (Rs.9.30), should accumulate on declines. 

HCC Ltd's Q3FY20 profit came at Rs.234 Cr. It also announced plan to reduce debt by Rs.2,100 crone. 

#The shares of Wockhardt Ltd (Rs.357.60), may test Rs.312/325 before taking a fresh upmove. Wockhardt Ltd has sold a part of its branded biz to Dr Reddy’. The ₹1,850 cr sale deal includes its manufacturing facility at Baddi in Himachal Pradesh. 

#Meanwhile,  there is news in a section of

international media that according to scientists ships and cars can now be powered by ammonia in fertiliser rather than diesel within the next few decades.
In a bid to tackle climate change and C02 emissions, the key ingredient in manure can be harnessed to burn in a ships engine or get mixed with a fuel cell to produce energy in a car. This is a positive news for the fertilizer sector.
Moreover, the ammonia and sulohur prices are expected to fall due to coronavirus outbreak in China. Ammonia is a key raw material for the manufacture of Urea.
According to the industry, the assessed requirement of urea in the rabi season is 16.2 million tonnes, 5.05 million tonnes for DAP, 1.73 million tonnes for MOP and 5.2 million tonne for NPK.
The Muriate of potash (MoP) which is entirely imported have however seen an increase in prices by 4% . ICRA expects these prices to sustain for the most part of rabi season unless the rupee depreciates fuctuates too much. 
The demand for fertilisers will peak in the coming weeks, with farmers continue planting of wheat, mustard, barley, masur and other crops.

#Buy the shares of Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd at around Rs.404.95, for short term targets of Rs.431/436. SL: Rs.396.

I feel it would not be an exaggeration to mention that most of the manufacturing units related to Sun Pharma's supply chain are quite far away from the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic and hence its API will have bare minimum negative effect; due to the ongoing havoc in China. 

Tit - bits

#The Nifty closed at 11,992.50 down 53.30 points

Photo: Hans India

(-0.44%) taking cues from weak global markets and downgrade of India by the Moody's.

Shares across the globe spooked after iPhone maker Apple Inc said it was unlikely to meet its sales projections because of the coronavirus epidemic in China.
The Nifty would continue to get support around 11800/11900 levels and face resistance around 12100/12150 region. However, with UA economy doing well, the domestic indices would continue to rise due to inflation; even if the India economy is weak. So,  if you are holding the share of a right company at the right price, good ROI is guaranteed over a period. Tomorrow, Indian markets (Nifty) will open gap up of at least 20 points. So,  use intraday dips to buy good shares. 

#Keep away from PSU Bank Stocks, as several media report suggest them having a significant exposures to the telecom operators. Acordoreports, bankers fear a possible collapse of Vodafone Idea Ltd (Rs.3, down 11.76%) will increase bad loans and spark a rerun of the crisis that gripped the banking sector a few years ago. If you are having any PSU Bank shares, kindly exit, as of now. 

#The shares of Yes Bank Ltd fell to Rs.33.65 and closed at Rs.34.80 down 6.33%. I have been suggesting you exit the share since Rs.37/39. 

There are doubts whether, it will be able to manage funds, in tough economic conditions in India. I think it will test new 52 - week low. Stay away. 

#The shares of  National Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.23.75) made fresh 52 week low today,  due to too much pessimism created by media, post cutting of fertilizer subsidy. Also, the NDA government should have paid the pending subsidy dues to the fertilizer companies before embarking on cutting the subsidy, though marginally -- I feel this move in the budget will have minimal negative effect on the bottomlines of fertilizer companies, however, when media creates undue sensation, my voice (or logic) gets drowned.
I had earlier requested the SEBI to take a close look at the counter, to find out if there is cartel out there to hack the scrip down.
Anyway listen, like people need food to survive, similarly we need fertilisers (both bio and chemical, apart Agri chemicals) to meet the demands of ever growing population.
Wherever Indians live, they will have to buy food for their survival. Bio fertilizers, alone are not sufficient to give a push to agricultural outputs. We need all types of fertilizers for this purpose, Nirmala Sitaraman has only spoken about the same in her budget speech -- if the market gives out wrong vibes from a right cause,  then it is unfortunate. Can human beings survive without Food?
Take human example: will you like daal - roti everyday? What you will do in such cases? You may skip meal, isn't? Hence, over use of urea in soils without the adequate use of other fertilisers is having a toll on the productivity of land. If farmers are not getting good margin from their produce, from where they will get more and more cash to buy costly fertilisers (PK - types)?
Too much urea subsidy is screwing the concept of the balanced use of fertilizers. Therefore, urea decontrol is an immediate priority and the NDA government is working on it.
Moreover, National Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.23.75) is a mini Ratna PSU, having excellent book value, P/E ratio, EPS, ROC,  etc. It is also a disinvestment candidate and is into Chemical and Bio fertilizers, apart from having a presence in Agri chemicals. You must have seen many analysts have turned BULLISH on the Chemical sector, post coronavirus epidemic in China. Not only that, it has tied up with a North East based company to sell "Kissan" brand urea. 
Besides, Ramagundam Plant is tentative to start production by 31st March, 2020.
Moreover, after bumper "Kariff" season,  the analysts are expecting a rise in fertilizer demand in Ravi season too. India imports NKP fertilisers -- so demand outpaces supply. I therefore, feel that soon fertiliser scrips (especially those which are also into Agri chemicals) will be RERATED in the backdrop of rising Food  Inflation and Chemical Story emerging out of China, which in turn will  elevate the income of farmers. Annual food inflation around 7% is actually desirable for farmers to stay in business. Retail food inflation climbed up from 3% in August 2019 to 10% in November and rose further to 14% in December 2019, the highest in six years. Much of this hike was driven by a year-on-year rise in prices of vegetables (60%), pulses (15%) and animal proteins (9%), according to a report published in Mint, 21 January, 2020.
Hence, every dip is a buying opportunity, for targets above Rs.50, in NFL. Another interesting point: today,  it closed near the day's high with a whooping delivery volume of 57.31%; giving the hint of a screeching buy. This is an investment grade scrip and hence there is no need to keep SL.
Also,  according to BSE website: National Fertilizers reported Flat Financial performance in Dec-19. The score has improved to -3 from -18 in the last 3 months.
Technicals:

• As per Relative Strength Index, National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of 9.77.
• As per Relative Strength Index (Smooth), National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of 27.14.
• As per Williams %R , National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of -94.03.
• As per CCI , National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of -100.35.
• As per Slow Stochastic, National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of 4.41.
• As per Fast Stochastic , National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of 5.97.

Source: Topstockresearch.com

#Accumulate the shares of Hindustan Construction Company Ltd (HCC Ltd) near Rs.8.40/8.70 for short term targets of Rs.11.50/11.60. The company came out with superb set of numbers for Q3FY20. Also,  the company is looking to reduce debts by substantial amounts. CMP: Rs.8.95.

Tit - bits

#The Nifty is now trading at 12102.10 down 11.40

points (-0.09%) while the Sensex is seen trading at 41245.75 down 11.99 points (-0.03%).

The broader market also declined. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.3% while the S&P BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.47%. The market breadth is negative. On the BSE, 725 shares rose and 1104 shares fell. A total of 116 shares were unchanged.

#The condition of Indian economy is not very well,  after five and half years of mismanagement by the team NaMo. This backward looking government has spoiled the economy which it inherited from UPA -- II.
Instead of reviving it, it was thrown into even more darkness.  But the current FM,  Nirmala Sitaraman is all agog with her green shoot theory. What I mean to say is that, after ruling for 5 and half years,  she is trying to say that Indian economy is in a revival path, when the BJP should have actually presented us with a vibrant economy.
But then when the BJP is able to get votes on Raam, Hindu - Muslim, Pakistan, etc, then why would this party care to improve employment or give a boost to rural economy by allocating more funds through MNREGA or such job generating schemes.

This brand of NaMo BJP,  which had a honeymoon period with PDP,  talks about removal of article 370 of our constitution. But in Supreme Court cases are pending in this regards, and I don't think Kashmir is better today,  than 6 years back. Meanwhile, there are media reports that the lockdown which began in the erstwhile state of J&K after August 5 cost Kashmir more than Rs.10,000 crore. Sectors directly dependent on the internet such as e-commerce are the worst-hit. Under the current regime in Delhi, the whole of India is in boiling state. 

It is pertinent to mention here that our former PM,  P Chidambaram, during the UPA rule had managed to give our economy a bulwark, even  during the US meltdown,  but now when the US economy is booming our FM is speaking of Green Shoots.  No one knows whether these shoots will become full fledged trees or will die some time later. 

#Another point which looks strange is though the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has lowered the price of domestically produced natural gas to $ 3.23 per million British thermal unit (mBtu) the shares of the companies from  downstream sectors like fertilizes,  petrochemical, power,  etc are not going anywhere.  

This budget is such a mismatch with the realities that the FM has cut for fertiliser subsidy, when the unpaid subsidy amount to the companies in this space is about to touch Rs.40,000 crore. The government should have 1st cleared the pending subsidy dues of companies and then went for a cut in fertilizer subsidy. But then when novices become FM, expecting too much is a moral fallacy.

Moreover,  I'm hearing since the last couple of years that fertiliser reforms are likely to be announced soon, and will focus on shifting the subsidy regime from direct credit to manufacturing companies to farmers, ensuring balanced use of chemical and organic fertilisers. Further, the news says for direct transfer to farmers (by crediting subsidy to their accounts instead of paying companies, as is the current practice), rationalising or decontrolling the price of urea and disincentivising the use of chemical fertilisers are under consideration. But unfortunately this rhetoric has not been actually walked through, even though half a year has passed after the NDA -- II took over. 

However, I feel this country will continue to progress even if we have NaMo like bogus premier and this BJP like Jumlabaaz party ruling India. 

#Anyway, after witnessing the teary condition of Indian economic landscape,  and a cut in gas prices, I have decided to recommend a scrip from the power sector which has good international business. Buy Transformers & Rectifiers (I) Ltd (TRIL) near Rs.9/9.30, for short to medium term perspective. Do you know that TRIL’s order book as on 23 December stands at around ₹1,161 crore? Buy without fail for targets of around Rs.12/15. SL: Rs.8.60. 
However, since it is a small cap,  the scrip might take some time to rise.  It is a solid company from the power space. But since it is a small/micro cap and hence usual risks are involved. This stock has already been recommended to the Premium Group members.