Tit bits

India's GDP growth is seen dipping to an 11-year

Photo: The Economic Times

low of 5% in the current fiscal, mainly due to poor showing by manufacturing and construction sectors, government data showed on Tuesday. BSE Sensex closed at 40,869.47 or up 192.84 points (+0.47%).
The EOD candle stick chart pattern shows that there could be more pains in the coming days. However, some sectors would continue to do a tad batter than the other ones. 

Unfortunately, the current government's priority seems to create chaos and confusion in India so that the minds of the common Indians get diverted from the main issues. The recent violence in JNU is one such incident after the CAB and CAA. 

The demonetisation has already proved to be a stupidly,  whose pangs are still felt in the corridors of Dalal Street. But then a section of Indians probably feel that their master degree holder PM (in "Entire Political Science"), is doing a great job....😂😂😂😂 What to say??!!

All others, not bracketed in the government's "Yes man team", who raise their voices either become Pakistanis or anti - National; though this government has formed laws to give citizenship to Pakistanis. 

Anyway,  if some Indians want to get fooled by an unholy regime at the center managed by a former "Railway Station Chaiwala" and a home minister who has serious criminal cases pending against him,  then what can be done?

#The stock of NFL (Rs.27.10) did well today. This finance minister (Nirmala Sitaraman), though a bit inexperienced, is doing a tad better than former one. However, some of her decisions like cutting of corporate taxes is yet show a significant improvement in corporate earnings.
Normally,  fertilizer stocks rally before the union budget. This time the chances are more because the latest government figures show that agriculture sector has also not performed well. 

The macro-economic data of NSO will be used by the Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman to prepare Budget estimates for FY21. She is tentative to present the Budget 2020-21 in Parliament on February 1. 

Moreover, the NSO data has revealed that deceleration in growth, apart from agriculture might also be witnessed in other key segments, like electricity; gas and water supply; trade; hotel and transporr; financial; real estate; and professional services.

I Therefore feel that the current FM,  will give more stress to down - growth sectors like Agriculture,  Construction, etc in the ensuring union budget to revive growth in them.
There is also another good news. A recent media report says that scientists at the science congress thinks that Big Data which today dominates many fields, will also drive growth in Agricultural space soon piggybacking on data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI).

#If you have a portfolio of above Rs.3 lakhs you can join my profit sharing scheme -- no Margin Trading and very little F&O trades. In this markets , where it becomes difficult for even, out and out share market professionals to make money,  it would be too risky for the new comers and amateurs, to eke out profits on consistent basis. 

Also,  my lifetime Premium Information Service charge has now increased from 1st January, 2020 to Rs.1 lakh, without F&O and Rs.1.5 lakhs with F&O. To know more details you can send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com.

Food inflation and Fertilizer Stocks

The food inflation is perhaps the single most

Ramagundam Fertilizer unit

factor which affects all.  

Agri products are different from many other commodities, in couple of ways: 

• They are consumed quickly and have shorter shelf life. 
• Their demand keeps growing at a steady pace with the growth in population. Thus, food prices are vulnerable to spikes whenever there is a constraint in supply. 

Often monsoons and hoarding are blamed for ushering in this problem. Now, while the middle-class crises foul when food inflation rises, on the flip side the farmers celebrate its northward move,  demanding good price of their produce.

If we look back a little,  we would see  that Food inflation fell to 0.53% in January 2017 as compared to 1.37% in December 2016; during demonetisation era when 86% of high-denomination currency was rendered invalid in a day. The demand-supply scenario turned against farmers as Indians didn’t have adequate cash to buy their fast perishable farm produce.

CRISIL Research, in a webinar recently said that the Kharif 2019 season will see 5% drop in production over last Kharif but that will be offset by higher prices. 

It is pertinent to mention here that, the trade war between US and China has created good demand for Indian cotton and soya bean and farmers of these crops are likely to see good prices after Kharif (April - September) harvest. Other crops where prices may move higher are likely to be – maize, bajra and jowar on short supplies in the market, jute on plastic ban and oil seeds on import duty on palm oil.

Thus, food inflation is positive for farmers as they tend to put more money in their pockets, during this time.

Now,  though there is little one to one relationship between the two, however it is generally believed that any increase in farmers' income, scales up their abilities to buy compost/manure, seeds, etc  which translates into a higher earning for the Agri based companies like National Fertilizers Ltd (Rs.26.90), Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd (Rs.110.95),  Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.49.20),  etc. 

Besides,  most fertilizer stocks run up,  as the Indian Union Budget date nears, rewarding handsomely to knowledgeable investors. 

Moreover,  among the three scrips mentioned above the stock of National Fertilizers looks a little attractive because Ramagundam Fertilizer unit in Telangana, in which it has stake, is tentative to be commissioned by March 31, 2020.

Tit - bits

#After a strong rally during the last few days, the

Nifty is showing some signs of fatigue. While the Nifty is expected to trade sideways for sometime, till the pre budget rally starts; the focus will now be shifted to good mid and small cap counters.

The BSE Sensex is now trading at 41,418.03 down 175.68 points (-0.50%), while the Nifty is seen at 12,215.45 down 55.55 points (-0.54%). I don't see too deep correction in the market and the Nifty migh at best go for 50/100 correction; before pre budget rally starts.

#The scrip of SAIL (Rs.47.10), recommended at around Rs.37, has met all its short term targets.  You can book profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.46.

#Today the scrip of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.32.10) came out of the upper circuits. There were recent media reports stating that Maharashtra CM,  Uddhav Thackeray has ordered a prove into some of the Mumbai based construction companies. I had exited my position long back. I would suggest you to do the same,  before it starts hitting LC again.

#The scrip of Reliance Capital Ltd (Rs. 15.50) has also come out of the UC. My suggestions to the punters would be to book profits and exit the counter. It may again test the lows before slipping into fresh upmove.

#The stock of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd (Rs.116.65) has almost competed its short term target of Rs.117. You can either book complete profits or book 70% of profits and  hold the rest with a SL of Rs.107.

#Buy the shares of National Fertiliser Ltd (Rs.27.10) at the CMP for short term targets of Rs. 37/41. 
Triggers:

• The company has a subsidy outstanding of around Rs.5000 crore as of 31st March, 2019. Interestingly, subsidy inflow has started from April,  2019, which will reduce the borrowings. 
• The company achieved a record sales of  27 Lakh tonnes during the 1st half of the current fiscal. 
• The NDA government's Kissan Samman Nidhi scheme, would be indirectly positive for National Fertiliser Ltd.
• It has diversified into seeds and ageo chemical business. Interestingly, it was manufacturing and selling urea till 2014/15, but it is now into DAP,  NPK and MoP products. 
• It is investing Rs.1000 crore in energy saving schemes,  that are being implemented in all the company's five plants. 
• Ramagundam Fertilisers & Chemical Ltd (RFCL) has decided brand fertilizers as "Kisan Urea and Ammonia", which would be marketed by National Fertilizers Ltd;  one of the partners or RFCL. The RFCL is expected to produce 12.70 lakh metric tonnes of fertilizers annually. The government is committed to provide 40 MWs of power, 0.5 tmc ft of water from Sripada Yellampalli project (SYP) and four-lane road from Rajiv Rahadhari to the RFCL plant site for the transportation of fertilizers.
• The dividend yield of the shares of the company is Rs.6.90%, while the book value of the shares of the company is Rs. 45.23. 

Tit bits

The Indian markets went for a correction yesterday. The BSE Sensex BSE sank 304.26 points (-0.73%) to close at 41,253.74, while the Nifty closed at 12,168.45 down 87.40 points (-0.71%).

Meanwhile,  NDA government has pegged its total expenditure for 2019-20 at Rs.27.86 lakh crore. Out of the Total Revenue Expenditure, Rs.3,41,812 crore is on account of interest payments and Rs.2,35,015 crore is on account of major subsidies, which is a matter for concern.
Moreover,  the latest Indian macro-economic data continues to be disheartening. The Index of Industrial Production contracted in October, for the third month in a succession; suggesting manufacturing may not recover in Q3.

Besides,  Retail inflation spiked to a two-year high of 5.54% in November year-on-year with Food inflation continuing to give much pains, though Core inflation stayed at 3.5%, much the same as October's 3.44%.

Also,  though the Purchasing Manager Indices are suggesting expansion in activity, with both Services and Manufacturing PMIs climbing above 50 in November but this could be partially a festive season effect. In such circumstances, there are more chances of Nifty going below 12,000 than crossing 12500.

#Yesterday Den Networks Ltd touched Rs.48.45, before closing at Rs.48.40. Those who have not exited the counter at the SL can either book a small profit in the opening trade or exit with a slight loss. It seems RJio's wired broadband services is not progressing as expected. Hence,  it is better to come out of it.. 

Tit - bits

#Tomorrow the market is expected to open gap up,  but we may have corrections at the end if the closing.

The key support for Nifty comes at around 12,182, followed by 12,120. The important Nifty resistance levels to watch out for are 12,285/12,323. This is a sell on rise market.

#You can short the banking stocks in the opening trade and then book profits at the end if the day.

#There was not a single stock that saw long unwinding on December 27.
In Cadila Ltd (Rs.257.70) and Yes Bank (Rs.45.30), there was short built up,  while we could see some actions in Page Industries Ltd (Rs.23,600) and MRF Ltd (Rs. 66,845).

#Though through OT,  the short term interest rates might cool down a bit, but it is doubtful whether it will help increase the credit uptake. There is another problem,  with inflation monster popping its head up,  too much liquidity in the system might precipitate its (inflation's) unabated upward march. It therefore, remains to be seen how the current FM,  mends the Indian economy ruined by Narendra Modi's misadventures and whims. 

Tit - bits

#Around 11.43 am in the morning,  the BSE Sensex was seen trading at 41,424.47 up 260.71 points (+0.63%) while the Nifty was 12,205.85 up 79.30 points (+0.65%).

The markets are up today basically on the news that the RBI will go for OMO on Monday.

However, I feel this is a dead cat bounce and if 12100 - 12010 is broken on the downside we could see the Nifty sliding towards 9700. Hence,  I would suggest you to sell on rise. 

#Since the RBI is tentative to do OT on Monday,   you can take some positions in Bank Shares and sell them on Monday.

Tit - bits

The Indian Stock Markets as expected are in red today. At around 11.30 am in the morning the BSE Sensex was seen trading at 41,387.46 down 71.5 points (-0.18%) and Nifty was at 12,192.55 down 22.15 points (-0.18%).
Nifty is expected to go down further unless it crosses 12,225 on the upside. Hence,  I'm giving one more sell call.

#Sell the shares of Punjab National Bank Ltd at the  CMP of Rs.63.30 for short term targets of Rs.58.5/58. SL: Rs.65.70.

Tit - bits

#Sell the shares of Cadila Healthcare Ltd in the

Photo: CNN Money

F&O market at around Rs.259, for short term targets of Rs.227/220. SL: Rs.264. The scrip got charged up after this pharma major, viz Cadila Healthcare recently said that its topical manufacturing facility in Gujarat has cleared US drug regulator's inspection. It was shouted up by a number of TV men. Now it is the Bear - time for the scrip.

#Sell the shares of BPCL corresponding to the spot price of Rs. 477.80, for short term targets of Rs.441/412. SL: Rs.489. )

A media report citing sources claimed that divestment in the company may be pushed beyond March 31, 2020, says the ET. 

Investors and traders should take this, as a extreme caution, as the domestic stock markets could see a "Rolling Bear Market" that may push the S&P Nifty50 down to as much as 12/15% from the current levels; if this actually happens.

If you remember,  in my earlier write up,  I have asked all of you to lighten your buy positions; though some sporadic upward mobility, in select mid and small caps cannot be ruled out.  

Tit - bits

#The indices are trading down today. The markets looks tired and ready for at least 200 points Nifty correction. 

The BSE Sensex is now at 41,558.51 down 97.92 points (-0.20%) while the Nifty is at 12,240.15 down 22.45 points (-0.18%).  I'm expecting both the indices to come down if the Nifty spot breaks: 12010/11830 on the downside.

This means the markets are not taking positive triggers from the recent OMO announcement by the RBI. In my last write up,  I had expressed my apprehensions,  regarding a boost of loan offtake due to Operation Twist. I had mentioned in that article that the debt heavy corporate may shun,  from diving into further debt, even if the interest rate of short term loans are kept low. 

Also,  the result of the Jharkhand elections, after the Maharashtra episode has shaken the pillars of the ruling BJP.
The spectre of a Mid Term Lok Sabha election and a defeat of this "Nazi" branded BJP, known for their "Tughlaq - like" policy making decisions, now looks more probable than earlier; especially after the Jharkhand election outcome. 
Over and above the global slowdown, the kick - boxing on Tariff front between the US and China, and the specter of escalating food inflation are likely to keep the domestic markets, BEAR HEAVY. 
In such a situation, I would suggest you to slowly lighten your buy positions and sit with cash. However,  some small and mid caps could show sporadic upward mobility, basically due to seasonal effect. 

#The stock of once recommended Reliance Infrastructure (Rs.25.50) is hitting upper circuits since the last few days. Now though the fundamentals of this Anil Ambani group company is little better than some of its peers,  I still believe that too much positive bet on it in the short term will not be good, especially for the risk averse investors. Book profits or exit if you see its shares going near the LC. 

Operation Twist: Advantage Banks

Operation Twist (OT) is a monetary policy

Photo: Cartoon Stock 

operation  of the US Federal Reserve where it simultaneously purchases and sales of bonds. It was first carried out in 1961 as a way to strengthen the U.S. dollar and stimulate cash flow into the economy.

Operation Twist gives a movement of the yield curve when central banks simultaneously buy and sell securities of short-term and long-term tenor. It’s a tool which is often used by the US Federal Reserve.

The benefits of businesses and individuals having access to low-interest-rate loans include an increase in economic spending activities. But, whether the risk averse and debt laden corporates, will go for loan spree, is still a matter of conjecture. 

Anyway,  due to RBI’s OMO (OT) announcement the systemic liquidity is going to increase and the bond market should react positively. 

The catch point is: if liquidity goes up, yields will come down. This in turn would means higher treasury profits on the bond portfolios for banks.

The bank stocks are likely to continue to hold on to their Friday gains on Monday as well,  since , the RBI has hinted to hold some more OTs (simultaneous sale and purchase of government securities) in future. 

Post announcement of OT the benchmark 10-year government bond yield slided 14 basis points to 6.61%.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the impact of recent counter-cyclical measures taken by the government was starting to play out, while stressing that it was imperative that monetary and fiscal policies should work in close coordination.

The RBI governor also acknowledged that the economic activity continued to weaken with GDP growth decelerating for the sixth consecutive quarter till the 2nd quarter of 2019-20.

He further pointed out that among the two main components of GDP: while investment activity weakened further, private consumption showed signs of recovery. 

Meanwhile, October food inflation was seen at 6.9% which is a 39-month high.

Economic growth continues to be lacklustre and Counter-cyclical monetary policy has not been as effective as expected due to inadequate monetary policy transmission. This brought in the necessity of going in for OT. 

In the rural sector, weak demand conditions has given rise to the prospect of a “one-legged” recovery driven by the urban sector.

According to a number of analysts, the vegetable prices are likely to bother the common man,  till the new crop comes up; but is expected to moderate by February 2020.

What is worrying is excluding government's final consumption expenditure, GDP growth is only 3.10% indicating an the underlining weakness in private domestic demand.

On the international arena, some signs of a cyclical upturn in global industrial growth are now in sight.

On the domestic front though the capacity utilization as per the early results of RBI survey has fallen substantially to less than 70% in Q2 of 2019-20, there are several green shoot indicators of growth recovery in the economy.

The growth recovery has to be addressed fundamentally and durably by the present FM,  Nirmala Sitaraman, by effective use of fiscal policy along with the monetary policy of the Central Bank,  even if the latter is playing only a facilitating role.

Actually, there is dichotomy which needs to be resolved with due caution: while the slump in real GDP growth warrants accommodative monetary policy stance, the uptick in headline inflation for the third month in succession after a quiescent phase of nine months calls for a 180 degree response from the Central Bank or at least status quo, until there is ground to infer that the food price spirals that are pushing it upwards, are ebbing

Besides  lacklustre revenue collections, alongside lower nominal GDP growth rate is adding to the risk of fiscal slippage.

Looking on the current fundamentals of Indian economy, it is very much clear, that the weakness in overall activity may likely prolong into Q3, if not turn weaker.

It is pertinent to mention that unseasonal rains in October and early November damaged certain crops and also disrupted the mandi arrival patterns; creating temporary demand - supply imbalance leading to price pressures in several vegetables, especially onion prices.

The current uptick in inflation is likely to give more pain in the near term as there exists a considerable uncertainty on the food price trajectory, as the quantum of impact of unseasonal rains on kharif output would be known only early next year.

In such a situation,  I would suggest you to maintain caution,  with a positive outlook on the banking sector. Steel and Construction sectors could also fare well in the near term due to the resumption of activities, post monsoon.

I am expecting the rally to continue, with mid and small caps hogging the limelight -- though stock picking remains the key issue.

On the inflation front, unseasonal rains in October and early November damaged certain crops and also disrupted the mandi arrival patterns. As a result, the temporary demand supply imbalance led to price pressures in several vegetables, especially onion prices.

If you are having a portfolio of Rs.3/5 lakhs and is not getting adequate time for research,  you can join my profit sharing scheme, for mutual benefits. For this you can send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com.

Tit - bits

#Texmaco Rail and Engineering Ltd is consolidating at the current levels.  It would be better if you book some profits,  if you have averaged when its price fell and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.32. The stock crossed Rs.35 on the upside yesterday. 

#We have bought some shares of Arvind Ltd at around the CMP Rs.39.85 on the hopes of the revival of the textile sector. If you buy, then please do keep a SL at Rs.37.

#The shares of United Bank of India seems to be in for a long consolidation phase.  But the question is why is the scrip not able to cross Rs.10 even after such good (last)  quarterly results? Are we missing something that the marker perhaps knows? Keep a SL at Rs.8.60. Don't add further.

#The stock of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd (Rs.103.05) today tried out  to break out of the current ranges and touched Rs.105.90. It needs to close above Rs.107 to give a decisive break out. Keep a SL at Rs.101.60.

Tit - bits 

#The shares of Texmaco Rail and Engineering Ltd (Rs.30.70) made a 52 - week low of Rs.29.40 today,  on the news that the shares of the company has got delisted from Calcutta Stock Exchange (CSE) on 12 December,  2019. This is crazy and stupid... 😂😂

This is is actually good for the company as CSE is now almost defunct. What is the use of paying listing fees then?  The money could be saved and used in business.
The company's shares would continue to trade in NSE and BSE -- that is enough for we shareholders. It is India's biggest Wagon Maker and it would be pity for us,  if we lose money in such a scrip. Today,  I averaged and brought down my buy price and for some of my clients. The demand for wagons are increasing everyday.
That sector fundamentals are intact can be seen when we look at the share of India's 2nd biggest Railway Wagons Maker, viz.  Titagarh Wagons  (Rs.46.20). These are life time opportunities to buy such blue chips as Texmaco Rail and Engineering Ltd. Meanwhile,  Wagon and metro rake maker Titagarh Wagons Ltd (TWL) said in last September that it has inched closer to build warships of "certain categories" for the Indian Navy, in West Bengal. 
In another significant development there were media reports that Indian Railways had come out with a substantial wagon procurement plan this year and now there are talks that Coal India is exploring options of having its own fleet of rakes. This will further boost demand for wagons. I had earlier mentioned about a backlog of 25,000 wagons; which will need at least a couple of years to get cleared. The next upper targets for Texmaco Rail are: Rs.32.40/37/39/41.50. If Rs.39 is crossed with good volume then we can even see Rs.47/51/56/62/66/72.

#The scrip of United Bank of India today made a high of Rs. 9.45 and is consolidating around Rs.8.80/8.85 ranges.  I had mentioned earlier that a close above Rs.8.80 would pronounce the next level of upmove, which happened today. You should accumulate with a SL at Rs.8.50.

Tit - bits

#The bounce back which commenced on Wednesday post forming of a Bullish Harami Candlestick Pattern, is likely to provide further ammunition to the bulls in the coming days. Keep accumulating good stock on dips. This week the rally is expected to be broad-based.
Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs.115.7 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs), too, bought shares of worth Rs.384.92 crore in the Indian equity market on December 13, provisional data available on the NSE showed.

Photo: India Today

#The Indian Railway related shares are expected to outperform in the run up to the Union and Railway Budget which in all likelihood is tentative on February 1, 2020.  According to a Gujarat based weekly,  the NDA goverment has invited bids for 450 trains, which more work for wagon manufacturers. 

This news is therefore music for the shareholders of Tiagarh Wagons (Rs.46.20) and Texmaco Rail and Engineering (Rs.34.05). The shares of both these companies are likely to soar in the coming days. Both are safe scrips at their CMPs. 

Texmaco’s wagon vertical ended Q1FY20 with an order book of Rs 11.7 bn (Rs 12.1 bn at FY19-end). Traction in private sector wagon ordering sustained with the company winning Rs 1.1 bn worth of orders (Rs 5.6 bn in FY19). Management indicated that it is evincing good demand for container wagons and for those carrying coal and automobile. 

Edelweiss maintains a ‘Buy’ with revised SOTP-based target price of Rs.69 (Rs.102 earlier) as they roll forward the valuation to December 2020E.

Titagarh Wagons has an order book of Rs.5,200 crore.
Texmaco Rail & Engineering is one of India’s leading freight car manufacturers and diversified engineering company. The company is the largest supplier of wagons to the Indian Railways in India with strong in-house capabilities for the design and manufacture of special purpose wagons.
Moreover,  the Capital Issue committee of Texmaco Rail & Engineering at its meeting held on 13 September 2019 has approved related to the right issue of equity shares of the company of face value of Re 1 each -

• Issue size - up to Rs 200 crore
• Issue price - Rs.46.70 per share

Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd has five manufacturing units extending over 170 acres in the outskirts of Kolkata.
Moreover,  the construction of the Eastern and the Western Dedicated Freight Corridors will lead freight volumes to more than double to 2,165 mt by FY2020.
In May, this year,  there were media reports that despite prolonged delays in delivery of freight wagons by private manufacturers, the Railway Board has placed an additional order for 9,468 wagons costing ₹2,635 crore.
The backlog, according to that Business Line news report was as high as 25,000 units, which will take at least another couple of years to be cleared.

Tit - bits

#The scrip of United Bank of India Ltd

(Rs.8.70) is consolidating around the current ranges. It needs to close above Rs.8.80 for the beginning of the next level of upmove. It is a safe scrip and should give decent returns over a period of 3/6 months.

#Buy the shares of Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd at Rs. 34.50, T: Rs.39/41, SL: Rs.31.

Texmaco’s wagon vertical ended Q1FY20 with an order book of Rs 11.7 bn (Rs 12.1 bn at FY19-end). Traction in private sector wagon ordering sustained with the company winning Rs 1.1 bn worth of orders (Rs 5.6 bn in FY19). Its peer group company Titagarh Wagons Ltd (Rs.46.95), shot up by more than 9% today. With Railway budget in the offing,  the Railway related stocks are likely to gain momentum soon.

#The stock of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd (Rs.102.30) has a great future ahead as the company has got lot of court ruling in its favour.  I'm looking for a price target of Rs.131/137 in the coming.  Keep accumulating with a SL: Rs.99.

A Big Boom is likely in Algorithm Trading

Market in the next 5 years

Photo: Business Standard 

As the demand for new innovative solutions increases and more startups arise in the space,  a spurt in demand for the Algorithm Trading Software is expected during the period 2019 to 2024. 

Types:

• Forex Algorithm Trading
• Stock Algorithm Trading
• Fund Algorithm Trading
• Bond Algorithm Trading
• Cryptographic Algorithm Trading

The global algorithmic trading market is expected to register a CAGR of 11% in the forecast period (2019 - 2024).

Some of the Key Players:

• Thomson Reuters 
• 63 Moons Technologies 
• Tata Consultancy Service
• Symphony Fintech
• Argo SE
• Kuberre Systems
• Virtu Financial

Highlights:

#The major growth drivers are:

• Rising demand for fast, reliable, and effective order execution, with a view to reduce transactional costs. Institutional investors and big brokerage houses have been using algorithmic trading to cut down on costs associated with bulk trading.
• Further, increasing government regulations and growing demand for market surveillance is helping the market growth. Traders keep track of their trading activities and investment portfolios by using market surveillance technology. 
• Moreover, the emergence of AI in the financial service sector is expected to be a major factor aiding in the growth of the algorithmic trading market.
• Also, algorithmic trading creates a highly liquid market due to rapid buy and sell orders without any human intervention. But, on the flip side this method can also lead to an instant loss of liquidity, which can restrain market growth. For instance, algorithmic trading was a significant factor in causing a loss of liquidity in currency markets after the Swiss franc discontinued its Euro peg in 2015.

#The cloud-based algorithmic trading platforms are expected to gain the maximum market traction during 2019 -24 period because cloud-based trading solutions help traders to gain maximum profits and effectively automate the trading process, apart from other benefits  like easy trade data maintenance, cost-effectiveness, scalability, and effective management.

• Cloud computing is a model which makes use of networks of remote servers usually accessed over the internet, to store, manage, and process data. 
• Cloud technology often helps in cost savings or improves business agility and responsiveness. 
• Cloud-based trading removes all the complexities to provide an extraordinarily powerful environment which allows the traders to focus more on developing trading strategies that work. 
• Due to the convenience of the cloud, traders can use the cloud service to check new trading strategies, backtest and run-time series analysis along with executing trades. 
• It also helps the traders to access real-time data and access the data anywhere at any time. 
• According to LogicMonitor's survey, 41% of enterprise workloads will be run on public cloud platforms like Amazon AWS, Google Cloud Platform, IBM Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and others, by 2020.
• On-premise workloads are also predicted to shrink from 37% as of today to 27% of all workloads by 2020.
• Financial Services has the highest percentage of server images deployed in private or public clouds, approaching nearly 100% Vs a median adoption rate of 19%.

Conclusion: 

Mumbai-based 63 Moons Technologies Ltd (Rs.101.85) is a small-cap IT company that is engaged in providing computer programming, consultancy related services. 

The company has filed a damage suits of Rs.10,000 crore against P Chidambaram and others, in their individual capacities for taking mala fide actions by abusing their powers.

Meanwhile,  Jignesh Shah who also help set up the flagship Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), said in September this year that the recovery group at NSEL has managed to establish full money trail of the entire amount of ₹5,600 crore, assets worth over ₹8,000 crore of defaulters have been attached, ₹3,300 crore of decrees and arbitration awards have been obtained and the same for the balance amount was underway.

"If we get cooperation from the agencies and the government, in the next 3-4 months, we can obtain full decrees for all 17 defaulters for the entire amount of ₹5,600 crore, along with arbitration awards and injunctions.



The 52-year-old businessman, who went on to be known as 'India's Exchange Man' for successfully launching 14 exchanges across six continents, including MCX in 2003, has been fighting a prolonged legal battle on multiple fronts ever since NSEL (National Spot Exchange Ltd) crisis broke out in 2013.

After setting up 14 exchanges across six continents in a span of ten years, engineer-turned-financial market wizard engineer-turned-financial market wizard Jignesh Shah now sees 100-times bigger business potential in a 'startup ecosystem' which he feels can create up to 10 crore jobs over the next decade.

Jignesh Shah is now the Chairman Emeritus of 63 Moons Technologies, the rechristened and re-booted version of the Financial Technologies India Ltd (FTIL), the erstwhile parent holding firm for all the exchanges founded by him.

One of the latest victories for him came late August,  2019, when the Bombay High Court ruled that the NSEL was not a financial establishment and quashed the attachment of assets, including bank accounts and properties, of 63 Moons Technologies, the parent company of Shah-led group which was earlier known as Financial Technologies (FT).

The Supreme Court has also set aside a government order to merge NSEL with 63 Moons, while the NCLT last year had dismissed a plea of the Corporate Affairs Ministry to supersede the 63 Moons' board.

Moreover, the Asia-Pacific region will occupy for more market share in following years in algorithm trading space, especially in China, also fast growing India and Southeast Asia regions.

Hence,  looking at the huge opportunities in future one can invest in the shares of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd at around Rs.102/103 for short term targets of Rs.121/127/131. SL: Rs.96. The stock 63 Moons Technologies  Ltd,  the erstwhile Financial Technologies fell from around Rs.3000 to the CMP of Rs.101.85. This is a turnaround story and hence is expected to give significant return to the investors.

Bibliography: Inputs from web searches...

Tit - bits

#Buy the shares of United Bank of Ltd at

Photo: Banyan Hill Publishing 

around Rs.8.50, for short term targets of Rs.11/11.50. 

Recently, the PSBs: United Bank of India and Oriental Bank of Commerce have been merged with Punjab National Bank, making the entity the second largest public sector bank (PSB) -- this gives it a considerable scale and value. It is a safe investment in this Yo -Yo markets.

# Buy the shares of 63 Moons Technologies

Ltd (Financial Technologies Ltd) at around Rs. 102.30/104, for short term targets of Rs.127/131. We are getting all the positive news about the company since the last few months.
With current dispensation in Delhi after the former FM, P Chidambaram & Co, who actually nailed the rumored BJP man Jiggesh Shah, I feel the scrip of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd would now,  move up. In fact, 63 Moons technologies filed a legal suit on June 12 against the former finance minister P Chidambaram and two senior bureaucrats; accusing them of taking "malicious and malafide" action against it in connection with the Rs.5,600 crore NSEL scam

#Today the shares of P C Jeweller Ltd are up by more than 8% and touched Rs.24 intraday. It is now trading at Rs.23.20, but don't get tempted to buy immediately. I would suggest you to not to enter the scrip till it gives a closing above Rs.24, with good volume. 

The Hallmark issue is likely to give lot of Pain, to the jewellery companies. Also,  though the commerce minister Piyush Goel, spoke of reducing the import duty for gold from 12.50% to 10%, but nothing much has moved, till now.

#The Nifty has bounced from 11850/11900 levels and I feel the intermediate correction is over for the time being. The market will now track budget,  which is just an arm's length away from the current timeline. Use dips to buy good scrips at reasonable valuations. This is the month of December and the year end rally in stock market has begun. Remain invested.

#I have the pleasure to announce that yesterday,  this blog: SumanSpeaks, received 3437 (three thousand, four hundred and thirty seven) Pageviews,  which is its all time high record,  for a single day.
My sincere thanks to all the Blog visitors, especially to those who are with me since more than a decade.....🙏🙏

Tit - bits

Photo: Stocks Vibe

#Today the Sensex closed at 40,239.88 down 247.55 points or  0.61%, while Nifty fell to

11,856.80 levels down 80.70 points or 0.68%.  As mentioned earlier, the Nifty is likely to stabilize around 11700 mark before taking a dive below 9500 levels. 

Meanwhile, to make the matter worse, there is news that the equity mutual fund (MF) schemes recorded worst inflows in three and a half years at Rs.1,311 crore for November. It was 78% low compared to the preceding month. 

However, despite the drop in equity inflows, the assets under management (AUM) for the industry soared to a record high of Rs.27 trillion, thanks to over Rs.50,000 crore of net inflows in debt schemes. This means the money is getting shifted to debt from equities. Concerns around downgrades and defaults are keeping investor sentiments under check.

#Today as expected the scrip of Yes Bank Ltd fell below Rs.55/53 levels,  and closed at Rs.50.55. The stock is likely to test its long term supports at Rs.44/45 levels. 

#The scrip of P C Jeweller Ltd was asked to exit at around Rs.27, after it hit the stop loss levels. The stock closed at Rs.22.80 today in the NSE and Rs.22.75 in the BSE.  Hope all of you are out from this share. Now,  long term investing concept is gone after the NDA government in their excessive greed to increase revenue, introduced the menacing LTCGT.

#I feel the shares of Rakesh Jhunjhuwala owned Titan Company Ltd (Rs.1,179.30) is likely to  CRASH, as Tanisq sells non Hallmarked Jewellery or it sells without a BIS Hallmark. So,  either the Company has clear its inventory of non Hallmarked jewellery at a discount or has to melt them all and prepare new. This is expected to bring huge losses to the company when the government's order to sell only Hallmarked jewellery gets effected from January,  2020.
What is Hallmarking?

The BIS hallmark is a system for gold and silver jewellery sold in India certifying to the purity of the metal. It certifies that the piece of jewellery conforms to a set of standards laid by the Bureau of Indian Standards, the national standards organization of India. BIS hallmark for gold jewellery consists of several components:

A Google Search shows that RJ owns 62,651,220 shares of Titan Company Ltd.

Motilal Oswal has already downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

#In this market condition, it would be dangerous for the newcomers to try their lucks in equity investing. 

Therefore, if you have a portfolio size of Rs.3/5 lakhs, and need my professional help,  then you can join my profit sharing scheme.
Here, we target 15/20% profit per month; which I feel is a very good return on a minimum investment of Rs.3/5 lakhs. This new model of generating good ROI has given way to the earlier model of buy and hold for longer periods. 

This scheme works on Mutual Trust and On-floor-performance. On the 1st week of every month,  the assessment is made regarding the returns generated in the preceeding (last)  month and shared accordingly in the ratio of 70:30, between you and me (After deducting STCGT and a cess of 4%). 
Also,  you also don't need to have a fresh Demat or Trading Account - - you can continue with your existing account. 
You can try for 3/4 months, and I'm sure you will bring in more funds after that period. To know more,  please send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com /sumanm2007s@gmail.com.

Some Thoughts

Photo: Indiainfoline

Nifty yesterday closed at 11,937.50 up, a mere 16 points or 0.13%. This is a dead cat bounce, after that massive fall on Friday. The indices struggled the whole day to remain in the green territory.

The Nifty is likely to test 11700 mark in the coming days due to lack of fundamentals or the supporting props. 

The P/E of Nifty 50 is 27.81 and has an EPS of just 429.10. With these figures in place do you think there is any reason to believe that Nifty will close above 12000?

The operators are playing in 50/60 stock and is managing the indices.  This can't continue for long, ultimately like a pack of cards,  the Nifty has to fall.  

Before that happens, you need to take caution and trim down your overnight buy positions, till a correction of around 200/250 gets over in its intermediate journey to below 10600 mark. 

In this tepid backdrop, I would suggest the small investors to stay away from the market for some time, till the situation stabilizes a bit around 11700 mark (Nifty_spot), before falling to 9500 levels. 

Unfortunately,  this government is more concerned about the non - Muslim diaspora of India's neighbouring countries, than the economic upliftment of its own citizen. 

When there is job scarcity for the Indians, with unemployment figures according to some media data is near 45 year high, will it not precipitate the problem if there is a legal influx of foreign citizens into India, through CAB route? Think about it... 😀

Amit Shah in the Parliament said: "It is the Congress which divided India". 

So,  why then Narendra Modi  made a gigantic statue of the Congressi, V B Patel?  

Why Narendra Modi calls M K Gandhi,  Bapu?  Both of them are responsible along with Md.Ali Jinnah,  a Shi'ia Muslim, isn't? 

Ironically,  while Amit Shah trades power, the logic is left begging!!

Caveat

#RBI growth forecast has come down to  5%

Photo: Medium.com

with Feku method along with a threat of inflation monster raising its head once again; this means the real GDP growth will be much LOWER in future. Exit all your open positions, either at cost price or at a minimum loss.

The market is due for at least 200 point correction in Nifty. 

#The scrip of P C Jeweller Ltd (Rs.26.85) has broken the SL at Rs.27. Hence,  come out of the scrip. 

#The stock of Yes Bank Ltd (Rs.59), in all probability is likely to go below Rs.55/53 ranges. Don't take any fresh positions. 

Tit - bits

#Today I recommend Wockhardt Ltd (Rs. 250.05) for the short term on the media news that Cipla Ltd is in advanced talks with the company for a stake sale; which the latter wants to lap up.  

Wockhardt Ltd had a total debt of Rs.3,367 crore as on March 31, 2019 and its current market capitalisation stands at around Rs.2,767.82 crore. It has a diversified product portfolio with a presence in therapeutic segments such as cardiology, dermatology, diabetes, respiratory, etc. The catch Point is: it export portfolio is around 70%. I'm expecting the scrip to double from the current price within January,  2020.

#The stock price of P C Jewellers Ltd (Rs.27.50) is testing its immediate supports. With no definite news of signing of the US  - China Trade Deal,  the gold prices are likely to remain buoyant. 

Also,  the RBI has kept the Repo Rate unchanged, on inflation fear.  This is positive for the Gold sector. 

Source: BSE

Moreover, if the FM, Nirmala Sitaraman increases the IT limit for the Indians in the upcoming budget, then the 1st sector which will get a positive effect is the Retail.  The company has a number of retail stores all over India. 

Apart from this the current marriage season is likely to keep the bullion market buoyant. 

Gold prices in India are down about ₹2,000 per 10 gram from their September highs. This may lift retail demand of gold, say many analysts.

"With doubts emerging about a U.S.-China trade talk, we expect investor demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold-backed ETFs, to increase," an ANZ analysts said in a note.

In the International markets Gold gained about 15% so far this year, which could be its biggest annual gain since 2010, mainly bolstered by the impact of the prolonged U.S.-China trade war on the global economy.

Financials: The last two quarter results of P C Jewelers Ltd are not that bad as is made out to be. For H1FY20, the Cash EPS is Rs.2.69.

If we interpolate this figure for the whole year the cash EPS for FY20 comes around Rs.5.38. This easily gives a P/E oHYf around 5, which is much less than the industry P/E of around Rs.30. 

Now, if we apply this simple method of rough valuation to the share price of P C Jeweler Ltd, then the yearly target of the stock of P C Jeweller Ltd becomes Rs.167/170, which incidentally is near its 52 - week high price. 

After giving suitable discounts, we can get the approximate March - April price target of around Rs.117/121. 

Hence,  I would suggest the medium to long term investors to buy the scrip of P C Jeweller Ltd at the CMP of around Rs.27.50 and keep holding. 

Note: If you have a portfolio size of about Rs.3/5 lakhs and is finding difficulty in making money on consistent basis,  then you can go for my profit sharing scheme,  of 70:30 ratio between you and me. There is no compulsion nor any lock in period,   you can walk out of this process at any time,  if you are not happy.