Saturday, October 29, 2016

"Muhurat" Picks and Other Stocks
First of all, let me wish you all a very happy Deepawali and Kali/Lakshmi Pooja. These days, I am too busy with some Bollywood (and other) Assignments, which calls for frequent change of locations and therefore,  I mostly update this blog from my mobile and Tab. The things at my end are likely to get streamlined from the 2nd week of next month -- till then please bear with me.

The Samvat 2072 was very challenging as the Nifty fell from around 8000 to 6900 during the first four months.

However, post budget day, it had a secular bull run with Nifty gaining around 8% during the whole of Sambar 2072; mid and small caps outperforming their larger peers.

The Indian markets at present are on a Bull Run inspite of the global headwinds like Brexit, talks of a rate hike in the US, Crude Oil meltdown and most importantly, a destabilizing northern frontiers; where the Indian defense forces are struggling to contain streams of terrorist inflow from across the border.

Meanwhile, we have seen a cut in fiscal and current account deficits, accompanied by low inflation and a somewhat stable INR. Moreover, the reversal of interest rate trajectories and good monsoon after a gap of couple of years, have raised hopes of further travel of Nifty towards the North. 

In Samvat 2073 too, I expect this bullish trend to continue as the NDA government continues with its reform agenda, which is likely to catapult a continuous money flow towards the Indian shores; both through FDI and FPI/FII. Recently there are market gossips that the FMO is examining the proposal to cut corporation tax by 1-2%.

Besides, with bond yields on the decline, there is an expectation that retail investors would gravitate towards stocks from fixed income instruments. This also has contributed to higher interest among investors to look for stocks that would deliver good returns over a 12-month horizon.

It is pertinent to mention that, India is among the few countries which has a GDP growth of above 7%; a figure which has led even the DIIs to keep their money taps pouring, on the Indian bourses.

In this condition, I continue to remain bullish in some of the beaten down sectors, like Telecommunications, Banking, Construction (not real estate), Engineering, Upstream Oil companies and Gems and Jewelry sector, apart from FMCG, Steel, Power and Auto. I am recommending two scrips as "Muharat" Picks:
1. Buy Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd at around Rs.110-111, for a short term target of Rs.139-141.

2. Buy Tata Coffee Ltd at Rs.127-128, for a target of Rs.145.
Tata Coffee has reported an 85-per cent growth in profit during July-September quarter at Rs 24 crore as against Rs 13 crore, a year ago. The Coffee production in India for 2016-17, post blossom, was estimated at about 320,000 metric tonne, lower by eight per cent, compared to 348,000 metric tonne in 2015-16 (final estimate).

Updates on my previous recommendations:
1. The investors can book some profits in Shrenuj & Co at around Rs.3.32 and complete profit in Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd at around Rs.14.50-15.50. Though the land prices in Hyderabad and especially in Vijayawada are showing some buoyancy, but Prajay Engineers Ltd like many Hyderabad based companies have a questionable management; so unless you are a too risk taker it is better to book short term profits and invest in better pedigree companies.

2. Those who are still holding my recommended J P Associates Ltd (Rs.11.15) and Unitech Ltd (Rs.6), should book complete profits and exit the counters, as the real estate markets in NCR and MMR are likely to collapse further due to over supply and high base prices. The unsold inventories continue to rise as the Builders are finding extremely difficult to come out of debt traps; as it seems the buyers are continuing to exit real estate space, in these two regions.

3. Those who are holding MBL Infrastructures Ltd (Rs.104.95) and RCom (Rs.46.80) can continue to add on declines for targets of Rs.150-170 and Rs.72, respectively.

MBL Infrastructures Ltd is engaged in execution of civil engineering projects across the country. The company has integrated business model for EPC and BOT projects. Photo: The Hindu Business Line.

4. Those are still holding my recommended Tata Steel Ltd from Rs.217 levels can look for target of Rs.425, where they can book complete profit and wait for dips to enter.

5. Those who are holding my recommended BHEL from Rs.92-106, can continue to add for the long term with a SL at Rs.131.

6. Those who are holding my recommended Vedanta Ltd from Rs.61-62, can look for short term targets of Rs.210-212.

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