In the short term, a rebound in prices, which have fallen around 55% since last summer, seems unlikely, analysts say. The oil market looks fundamentally weak despite initial signs that oil prices may be stabilizing around $47 to $51 a barrel, analysts at Energy Aspects said. “Inventories are building and on top of a high base which will continue to weigh on the term structure of Brent and WTI,” Energy Aspects said.
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
U.S. crude oil inches higher after mixed data, API report ahead
[Editor: It was expected!! I have mentioned about that several times in my earlier posts and ridiculed those Hedge Fund Managers, who were speaking of crude oil, further nosediving. Meanwhile, what is interesting to note, is that The Wall Street Journal wrote on, 27 January, 2015:
The question is who are these analysts and on what basis, they are forecasting crude oil prices, based on apparent factors? I have seen most of these "so-called" are fickle and often go wrong. This time also I believe they would be way off the mark. The crude oil is now trading at $46.08 up 2.06%. According to my assessment, the crude oil will now slowly move towards $60 in the coming days]
Jan 27, 2015: West Texas Intermediate oil futures inched higher on Tuesday, as investors digested a mixed bag of U.S. economic data.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March tacked on 28 cents, or 0.62%, to trade at $45.43 a barrel during U.S. morning hours. Prices held in a range between $44.82 and $45.69.
A day earlier, New York-traded oil futures hit a low of $44.35 a barrel, a level not seen since March 2009, before settling at $45.15, down 44 cents, or 0.97%.
The U.S. Commerce Department said new home sales climbed by 11.6% to a seasonally adjusted 481,000 units last month, above expectations for 450,000.
On Monday, OPEC’s secretary-general, Abdalla Salem el-Badri, said that oil prices appear to have bottomed out and could be poised for a rebound. But Mr. el-Badri also said that OPEC intends to stick to its decision to keep output stable.
While some of the comments seem bearish, they may represent a change of tone, Simmons & Co. International said Tuesday in a research note. It is “tough to draw strong conclusions,” but this could be a sign that Saudi Arabia is at least willing to join a coordinated response with other producers, something it had adamantly opposed, it said.
“A lot more guys are saying these guys are going to capitulate soon. I don’t necessarily think that’s true,” said Kyle Cooper, managing director of research at IAF Advisors, a Houston consulting firm. “But there definitely is an internal battle going on.”
Estimating that the 93 million barrels a day global oil market is currently oversupplied by 1.3 million barrels a day, UBS cut its forecast for the average Brent price this year to $52.50 a barrel from $69.75, and for WTI to $49 a barrel from $64.75.
The bank expects prices to take as long as 60 months to recover to pre-collapse levels. As the “process of correction is clearly under way with significant cuts to capital expenditure already being announced,” the bank sees both contracts rebounding to over $60 a barrel next year, with Brent reaching an average price of $90 a barrel by 2018.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for February, the benchmark gasoline contract, fell 0.8% to $1.3061 a gallon.
February diesel lost 1.72 cents, or 1.1%, to $1.6226 a gallon.
Crude-oil prices have tumbled since midsummer and again in the fall after OPEC decided at its November meeting not to cut its output despite a combination of a global supply glut and lackluster demand.