Saturday, January 24, 2015

Import duty hike likely in metals, mining space: PLilladher 
[Editor: Rohit Ferro Tech Ltd is not only implementing CDR Scheme (where it gets large concessions in terms of interest rate and payment schedules) but also has a couple of coal mines in Indonesia. The stock which closed yesterday at Rs.7.90 is near its 52-week low price and therefore, should be accumulated on all declines, for a target of Rs.12-14, in the short term]
Jan 23, 2015: Prabhudas Lilladher has come out with its report on metals & mining sector. "Hike in import duty likely; weak prices to undo the benefit", says the report.

Prabhudas Lilladher's report on metals & mining sector "Given the fall in demand in China and higher exports from Russia following depreciation in Rouble, the imports of steel into India has increased considerably resulting in renewed pressure on the domestic prices. 

This, we believe may result in the likely increase in import tariffs in India in the near term to protect the domestic industry. Govt’s qualitative measures including mandatory quality certification have partially helped in curtailing rebar imports from China since Nov-14. However, Longs prices remained subdued despite reduced imports due to weak demand. 

In case of flat products, we expect global prices to remain weak in the near term due to upcoming holiday season in China and elevated inventory levels. Hence, we believe that any benefit of higher import duty to the extent of 250bps would be off-set by lower steel prices. So far, all odds are in favour of hike in import duty but Ministry of Finance seems to be averse to hike in duty." 

Valuation and Outlook: 
"Sentiment wise, a hike in duty would be positive for Indian steel sector. However, should the global steel prices continue to remain weak, the benefit would be only for a short period. Steel stocks underperformed the broader indices by a wide margin, in line with our expectation. 

We believe that stocks would remain pressure due to strong Rupee, waning benefit of cheaper iron ore and weak global demand. However, we like TATA steel on the back of attractive valuations, restoration of iron ore mining in India and better play on recovery in Europe with leaner operations", says Prabhudas Lilladher research report.

Courtesy: Money Control

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