Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Nifty is near at all time high, but there is  not much movement in the broader market, which is increasing the skepticism of the continuance of this rally. Moreover, the BJP has probably BLUNDERED by deciding to field Narendra Modi from Varanasi after showing Red Card to its veteran leader Dr. M M Joshi, just to satisfy the wishes of the woolly headed RSS leaders.  I have repeatedly mentioned in my Facebook posts not to do this, but then "Vinasha Kale Vipareeta  Buddhi" (meaning that when the ruler faces bad times, his thinking also gets warped). I strongly feel that unless the BJP changes its stand, the caste game could go against it in Varanasi (Benaras) and Narendra Modi (an outsider) could actually lose this seat, especially if:
(i) Mr.Arvind Kejriwal decides to contest from there, 
(ii) Mukhtar Ansari decides NOT to contest on Kaumi Ekta Dal ticket, and 
(ii) If the Congress decides to field Dr. Rajesh Kumar Mishra again.
It is because, out of around 665,490 plus voters, Muslims have a solid 3 lakh plus vote bank in Varanasi (Benaras); Backwards, Patels and Brahmins are other key vote banks. Today there was an article in Economic Times which said: "As he (Arvind Kejriwal) announced that he was going to defeat Modi, the crowd roared, "Abhi to Sheila hari hain, Modi teri bari hain (Sheila has been defeated. Now it is Modi's time)". This shows where the votes of a large section of Indians will go. The fact of the matter is that: the manner in which the veteran politician, Dr.M M Joshi was forced to retreat from this seat could dramatically change the (caste) equations. In the UP caste is a very important factor during elections and the Upper Castes, especially the Brahmins have always voted tactically, trying to remain at the centre of power. Besides, the way Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the BJP humiliated a senior party functionary has shamed even the illiterates of the illiterates. If this called Modi-wave, then I would rather prefer stay away from the party which supports such anarchy! This makes the chance of NDA returning more an d more uncertain--the markets have reacted accordingly. Also, it is to be remembered that the market traded range bound during last week. Inability to cross 6560-6570 range today shows the tiredness of the bulls which was expected when the morning report sent to the PAID GROUP. It was mentioned today that a fall below 6530 could start, another round of sell offs by the fatigued-bulls. After reading, today's inputs in the Paid Blog, those who shorted the Nifty_Futures corresponding to the Nifty (Spot) rate of 6545.45 (This was the value of Nifty at the time of sending the report), might have made decent money intra-day. 
Resistance: 6530 / 6550
Support: 6475 / 6450
In the stocks to watch section (of the today's' report) it was mentioned today that: Financial Technology, has entered an agreement with IVF Trustee Co Pvt Ltd to sell its warehousing arm for Rs.242 Cr. The stock hit the upper circuits at Rs.378.95.
Glodyne Technologies Ltd (Rs.5.97) and Allied Digital Services Ltd (Rs.11.75) fared badly today in the bourses, as expected. The promoters have eaten both the companies hollow and now only skeletons are left. Exit both the scrips on any rally, as there are better bargains elsewhere, at the present moment. It is amazing why the regulators are not taking any action against these kinds of companies, inspite of them, ruining the confidence of the investors, in the small and mid cap space.