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Monday, January 06, 2014

IVRCL Ltd: Solid Bottom Formation
The first sign of relief will come from lower interest rates, which will also ease working capital pressures. With the current set of conditions it is apparent there is NO ROOM for a further REPO rate or CRR HIKES by the RBI. The inflationary expectations though are still there, but it has been seen that keeping rates high has two major negatives: (i) Slows down the economy and might cause severe unemployment problems (ii) Pushes up the cost push inflation more than, slowing demand. Hence, rate hikes till now has done more bad than good. When there is a wage-spiral in the rural India, then that is bound to affect the A-S Curve, because large part of the Indians live in the small cities. 

Moreover, the interest rates have somewhat bottomed out and a turning of the monetary policy cycle is  just few kilometres away. However, much, of course, depends on the outcome of elections in the middle of the year. Faster policy decisions along with quick execution by the new government of India, to nudge the economy into recovery will help these firms and their order books. 

IVRCL Ltd has a humongous order book position of around Rs.25,000 Cr. It undertakes BOT/ BOOT / DBOOT Type Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects. Started in 1990, IVRCL has become a leading  player in EPC and LSTK contract implementation in India. It has a Strong presence in Water, Transportation, Building & Industrial Structures and Power sector.

I am expecting a target of Rs.20, in the short term, as chartically speaking, the scrip looks to be very attractive. CMP: Rs.16.25.