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Thursday, September 12, 2013

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Candle Stick Chart of Punj Lloyd Ltd
Manappuram Finance Ltd as expected moved up today, after Religare Securities Ltd recommended the scrip as a buy for a short term target of Rs.25. CLICK HERE. According to my closed sources, who refused to be named, "There would be better numbers going ahead, as the price of gold is buoyant. In case the company wants to recover its loan amount and forced to sell the collateral, there would less hassles; as prices are much higher, than in June, when Bullion fell a two-year low. Value of the collateral going up always helps in the lending business".  Gold futures closed at Rs.30690.00 per 10 grams in MCX yesterday. Manappuram said in a March, 2013, stock exchange filing, declining gold prices may trigger an increase in defaults and an “under-recovery of revenue on certain gold loan portfolios.” The company’s gross bad debt rose 21% in the three months ended June 30 from a year earlier. However, this is expected to come down drastically now as the gold prices are above Rs.30, 000 per 10 grams. I think the scrip should now race towards Rs.31-32. The stock exchanges should remove 5% circuit limit for the stock or put a minimum 10% circuit limit. In these kinds of scrips 5%, circuit limit is simply a hoax. 
Allied Digital Services Ltd hit the buyer freeze in the late afternoon trade. The scrip should be moving towards the next target of Rs.22-23. The company would be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the fall in INR Vs USD. Those who are holding the scrip should average it on all declines. 
With INR recovering from all time lows, both the stocks VIP Industries Ltd and SAIL recommended as a strong buy moved up yesterday in the Indian bourses. While VIP Industries Ltd touched Rs.52.05 intraday, SAIL touched Rs.51.35. Both the scrips will gain further if INR appreciates more against the USD. Last week Indian  Foreign Minister, Salman Khurshid said in an interview to a business channel that the oil minister will on 16 September 2013 announce plans for lowering fuel consumption. This is expected to have a positive effect on the INR Vs USD.
Punj Lloyd Ltd was recommended yesterday around Rs.25.50-26, in the dying hours of the trade. Punj Lloyd showed a turnaround in June, 2013 quarter, when it reported a consolidated net profit of Rs.40.41 crore in Q1 June 2013, as against net loss of Rs.13.37 crore in Q1 June 2012. Punj Lloyd's consolidated net sales rose 10.8% to Rs.3000.26 crore in Q1 June 2013 over Q1 June 2012. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) declined 1% to Rs.293 crore in Q1 June 2013 over Q1 June 2012. The company is expected to get benefits from the recent announcements from the government. Punj Lloyd, is a leading EPC conglomerate. Punj Lloyd's scope of work includes residual basic and detailed engineering, procurement, construction, installation, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management for the sulphur block comprising 2 x 100 TPD Sulphur Recovery Unit including Tail Gas Treatment Unit, 60 m3/hr Sour Water Stripper and 250 TPH capacity Amine Regeneration Unit on a single point responsibility basis. Last month the company, was awarded a contract worth Rs.358 crores by Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd (CPCL) to build the Sulphur Block of Resid Upgradation Project at its Manali refinery near Chennai. The project is expected to be commissioned in December 2015. With this contract, the order backlog for the Punj Lloyd Group on a consolidated basis has gone up to Rs.21, 226 crores, reflecting the total value of non-executed order as on June 30, 2013 and the orders received after the day. The Group's strategy has been to expand its footprint outside India and today over 65% of orders represent the growing regions of Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. While revenues show a reasonable increase in challenging global macro environment, margins are set to improve as the rupee appreciates further. n the coming months, the group is actively looking at retiring high interest debt. The latest book value of the shares of the company is Rs 115.88. The share touched its 52-week high of Rs.64.10 and 52-week low of Rs.20.25 on 09 January, 2013 & 04 September, 2013, respectively. At current value, the price-to-book value of the company is 0.21. The market cap of the company at the CMP of Rs.24.75 is only Rs.821.94  Cr, which makes it look very attractive for short term investments. Earlier, National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) had decided to exclude the company from the futures and options (F&O) segment with effect from only, 1st November 2013. Therefore, there will not be much sentimental impact on the share price, due to this episode, in September, 2013. 
Jai Prakash Associates Ltd reached my 3rd target of Rs.42 (intra-day it touched Rs.43.90), yesterday. The news of selling its cement division gave a spurt in the stock price. The scrip was recommended around a couple of weeks back at around Rs.31-32.