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Wednesday, May 01, 2013

P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Posts Modest Gains in Choppy Trading; FOMC Looms
(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures ended the U.S. day session with modest price gains in choppy intra-day trading Tuesday. Bargain hunters continued to step up as they see the near-term technical posture of the gold market continuing to improve, which suggests a market bottom is in place. Some short covering, technical buying and chart consolidation were also seen Tuesday. Now, focus is on the conclusion of the latest meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee on Wednesday afternoon. June Comex gold last traded up $5.50 at $1,472.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $2.90 at $1,474.00.  July Comex silver last traded down $0.001 at $24.165 an ounce.

It was a busy day of U.S. economic data Tuesday. The reports were a mixed bag, but a weaker-than-expected ISM Chicago business survey appeared to trump the other reports and put solid downside pressure on the U.S. dollar index. That, in turn, produced fresh buying interest in the precious metals markets.

There was more dour economic news coming out of the European Union overnight, as the number of unemployed workers in the bloc rose to a record high in March. Also, German retail sales fell in March. Tame EU inflation that fell to its lowest level in three years was also reported Tuesday. All of the above augurs for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates when it holds its monthly meeting on Thursday. A growing number of market watchers think the ECB will lower interest rates at Thursday’s gathering.

Nymex crude oil futures prices were lower Tuesday and that was a mild negative for the metals. However, crude oil bulls have gained upside near-term technical momentum recently, which remains an overall bullish underlying factor for the raw commodity sector, including the precious metals.

The London P.M. gold fix is $1,469.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,467.50.

Technically, June gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Tuesday and closed at another fresh two-week high close. Bulls have gained good upside technical momentum to suggest that a near-term market bottom is now in place. However, gold prices remain in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and the bears still have the overall technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,400.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,479.50 and then at last week’s high of $1,484.80. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,460.50 and then at $1,447.30. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures prices closed nearer the session low Tuesday. While silver bears are still in overall technical control, the bulls have gained some upside momentum recently. However, silver prices are still in a seven-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $24.58 and then at last week’s high of $24.835. Next support is seen at Monday’s low of $23.945 and then at $23.62. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 375 points at 318.80 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls’ next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 335.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of 305.70 cents. First resistance is seen at 320.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s high of 324.45 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 315.10 cents and then at 312.50 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5.

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 By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

Courtesy: Forbes