Thursday, April 25, 2013

Future Retail Ltd (BSE Code: 524574): Should Move Up At Top Speed
Pantaloon Retail can move to Rs 200 or so in next 4-6 months, says SP Tulsian,
Tulsian told CNBC-TV18, "If I first take the steps having initiated by the management of Pantaloon Retail for monetizing some of their non-strategic assets, we have all been hearing that first they exited from the Future Capital which is now Capital First, then entered into an agreement with Aditya Birla Group, now selling their stake in Future Generali that is life insurance and general insurance both. They have sold the non-life insurance to Larsen and Toubro (L&T) and life insurance to Industrial Investment Trust (IITL).”

He further added, “If I go by the financial performance on an annualized basis they have a top-line of close to Rs 15,000 crore which in my view is quite respectable and having an EBITDA of about 11 percent. So they have annual EBITDA of close to about Rs 1,600 crore plus, but the problem is that 8 percent of the top-line goes away into the interest. One can say that Rs 1,200 crore out of this Rs 1,600 crore EBITDA is eaten away by the interest part and that has been the case which has been reflected in their financial performance for 18 months also where top-line was Rs 20,000 crore with EBITDA of Rs 2,250 crore with interest at Rs 1.650 crore.”

“So if you go forward and the way they have been trying to reduce their debt, which has been confirmed by the management and again that the debt reduction may get delayed by about three-four months, but that seems to be more or less on the track.”

“They have presence in 95 cities with 16 million square feet catering to 30 crore customers and very low equity base of Rs 46 crore or so. Generally the trading pattern which I have observed in case of Pantaloon is that when it corrects, it corrects swiftly. From Rs 250-240 it falls to as low as Rs 140-150 and because beyond a point you cannot make the stock to fall further with the market cap now at Rs 3,000-3,200 crore, so again the renewed buying or the technical forces start making the stock to go up again to the level of Rs 200 plus or crossing beyond Rs 200 or so.”

“In the shareholding pattern, promoter holding of 44 percent, institutional investors of 40 percent, you have everything in place provided the management keeps on monetizing their non-strategic assets and keep reducing their debt. So taking this into account partly fundamental and more because of the technical factors that stock can move past Rs 200.” CLICK HERE.