Sunday, March 22, 2015

According to  Knight Frank, in 2014, Delhi, Mumbai, National Capital Region (or NCR), and Bangalore accounted for 70% of the new housing supply. Residential sales have declined 30% Y/Y across seven major cities in India. 

There is a huge pile up of unsold housing inventory. Mumbai and NCR region will take between twelve and fourteen quarters to sell the existing inventory. Now twelve quarters means 3-years, isn't it?

High prices, sticky interest rates, and cautious buyer sentiment are cited to be the key reasons for poor sales. In spite of this, real estate developers have increased prices. 

Mumbai saw price hike of 10%, while the NCR witnessed a hike of 3% in 2014. High prices will keep home buyers away. The inventory pileup will put stress on the Indian banking system.

Therefore, is the real estate market in Mumbai (Bombay) heading for a CRASH? The Indian government should learn from China's housing bubble that started deflating from 2011. 

Housing prices in China started falling as the middle class were unable to afford homes in large cities. China has also given rise to many ghost cities, where many residential apartments are unoccupied. Home prices fell in 64 cities in January, 2015, compared to 65 cities in December. 

The housing sector contributes 15% to China's economy and is primarily responsible for the slowdown in the economy. In 2014, the Chinese economy grew at 7.4%, it slowest pace in 24 years.
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