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Saturday, February 07, 2015

UCO BANK LTD: BUY
On last Friday (06/02/15), UCO Bank Ltd was recommended to the Premium Group members at around Rs.70.50, for a target of Rs.75. 

UCO Bank Ltd came out with satisfactory set of numbers for the Q3FY15. The net profit fell marginally by 3.5% to Rs.303.59 crore in the third quarter of 2014-15 financial year. The bank had registered a net profit of Rs.314.53 crore in the same quarter of 2013-14.

However, the total income of UCO Bank Ltd, increased from Rs.4,919.04 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2013, to Rs.5,447.39 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2014. On the asset quality, bank's gross non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans increased to 6.5% from 5.2% year ago. Net NPAs too increased to 4.25 per cent of net advances, from 3.06 per cent in the year ago period. 


In an interview with  CNBC TV18, on February 05, 2015, Arun Kaul, CMD of UCO Bank Ltd said, with the cost of fund coming down, he is hopeful of seeing net interest margin (NIM) improvement by 10-20 basis points in the fourth quarter from the current 2.58%.  He further said that for the third quarter the incremental slippages were at Rs.2700 crore and 60% of the slippages were restructured assets..

We  can understand the September, 2014 quarter performance of the UCO Bank Ltd a little better, if we compare the sequential figures. The total income of the bank came at Rs.5447.39 Cr in Q3FY15 as against Rs.5256.62 Cr in Q2FY15. The PBDT increased to whooping Rs.1425.14 Cr as against Rs.1055.77 Cr Q2FY15. The net profit of the company almost TRIPLED to Rs.303.60 Cr as against Rs.103.54 Cr. The EPS of the company for Q3FY15 came out to be Rs.2.99 as against Rs.1.02 Cr in Q2FY15.  Even the 9MEPS, for the UCO Bank is a massive Rs.9.15. 

The scrip should be crossing Rs.100, within a couple of months, as the RBI further lowers the Repo rate or cuts the CRR. Therefore this is a turnaround case, which most in the Indian Financial Media, failed to identify.

Besides, there were recent media report that the Government is likely to infuse Rs.6,990 crore in nine public sector banks including SBI, Bank of Baroda (BoB), Punjab National Bank (PNB) for enhancing their capital and meeting global risk norms.  This news augurs well for the whole of PSU banking sector. 

Moreover, in India, with SARFAESI Act (The Securitization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002) in place, most of the bad loan can be recovered; depending upon how secure they are....!! 

Also, according to The Economic Times, January 16. 2015: State-run banks are going to benefit the most from the Reserve Bank of India's cut in interest rates by 25 basis points, as it would help them use the treasury gains to negate provision and write-offs of bad loans. The treasury gains of public sector banks alone are expected to be over Rs.2,000 crore as the value of their holdings in government bonds is likely to surge this quarter. A reduction in rate may also bring down the burden for debt-laden corporates, triggering a better investment climate.
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