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Friday, January 23, 2015

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd reommended yesterday at around Rs.48.95, today touched Rs.51.20, before closing at Rs.50.50. The stock will give handsome returns to the investors. Please have patience, till it starts to get benefits out of the expansion.
Rohit Ferro Tech Ltd today closed at Rs.7.90, due to weak outlook of the steel sector in the international market and also due to the domestic problems. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, on 22 January, 2015, Kalyani Steel MD RK Goyal said: 
"Just for your information, particularly long products import has gone up by 550 percent in Q3 and in terms of volume it has gone up to the level of 450,000 tonnes in last quarter. On annualised basis it becomes 1.8 million tonne against the total demand of the industry around 4 million tonne and if this continues, I think the local industry will be wiped off. Major imports are coming from China besides from various other countries including Europe, including Russia. The reason is that the economic situation or the slowdown in the growth in China -- since local demand in China is going down, they are trying to find out avenues to export that material and India is a good ground for them where there are practically no restrictions and a reasonable size market for them.The government should introduce some sort of steep import duty so as to deter dumping of products from countries such as China".
Meanwhile, China's apparent crude steel consumption fell (3.4 percent from a year ago to 738.3 million tonnes in 2014), for the first time in three decades in 2014, data from an industry association showed, a further indication of how the country's economic slowdown is hurting industrial demand. Some analysts are of the view that a decline in the use of steel in China, which is both the top consumer and producer of the alloy, will dent iron ore prices that have already been roiled by a global oversupply. Spot rates of the steelmaking ingredient are currently mired near a 5-1/2 year low $65.60 per tonne. It is interesting to note that, struggling with weak demand as economic growth slowed to 7.4 percent in 2014, the lowest since 1990, Chinese steel producers turned to exports, which according to CISA rose 64.5 percent to the equivalent of 84.4 million tonnes of crude steel last year. Overseas sales got a further boost last year as exporters took advantage of a loophole that allowed them to gain tax rebates by adding tiny quantities of boron to their products. However, that loophole has since been closed. CISA said in a report published on its website that around 40 percent of exports in 2014 contained boron, and the decision to cancel the rebate this year will have "a certain impact" on the domestic market. Also, amendments to China's Environmental Protection Law, which came into effect on Jan. 1, 2015, will raise production costs in an industry which is already trying to survive on profit margins of less than 1 percent in 2014. Thus, these two points (on China) are definitely going to have positive effects on the Indian domestic steel sector as well. Moreover, some analysts, warned of a potential squeeze higher, with the market now positioned with the biggest net short since 2008 across the LME and CME Group Inc's Comex contract combined. "With the market oversold and heavily short, the likelihood of a short term squeeze is rising. We would view any further bouts of weakness as prime buying opportunities," said ANZ in a report. 
Besides, stocks and bonds surged worldwide and the euro sank to an 11- year-low on Friday, the day after the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing plan. Oil rose following the death of the king of Saudi Arabia. European shares were on course for their strongest week since late 2011 and emerging markets headed for their best in almost 10 months. Italian, Spanish bond yields dropped to record lows. Purchasing manager surveys showed the euro zone economy began 2015 in better shape than expected, although companies are still cutting prices.  
The ECB announced on Thursday a programme to buy government bonds, which will pump roughly a trillion euros into the stagnant euro zone economy. Although QE was widely anticipated, the size of the programme was not - markets had already largely priced in QE at about 500 billion euros in total so the package of 1.14 trillion euros easily outpaced market expectations. Now, though most of the analysts are of the view that a strong dollar is negative for the metal sector, but what I feel is that, easy money from the European QE, would soon start to enter the metal (Commodities) sector, sparking the fear of inflation--i.e, this move is likely to  inflate the prices of commodities, as we saw last time. Therefore, I feel we are probably sitting, at the end of a downturn in the metal sector. So, according to my view one should start accumulating steel (and other metal) stocks on any bounce. In another development, the latest producer manufacturing index(PMI) came in better-than-expected from China. Newly released numbers saw China's PMI come in at 49.8, up from 49.6 in December. Japan's PMI was up as well, coming in at 52.1, 0.1 percentage point higher than last month's 52. Later today, a slew of PMI numbers are scheduled for release, including the ones from France, Germany, Eurozone and US. In the latter, existing home sales and the CB leading index will be watched as well. 
Jindal Saw Ltd recommended earlier and also today, rose to Rs.86.90, intra-day before closing at Rs.84.60. The company as mentioned earlier came out with decent set of numbers for the Q3FY15. In Q2FY15, too, the results were impressive. The company is in a commanding position in India's tubular market, being the undisputed leader with turnover in excess of Rs.7500 crores. It is one of the country's largest producers of SAW pipes, which is widely used in the energy sector for the transportation of oil and gas. The investors are suggested to accumulate the same on all declines for a short term target of Rs.91-92, within this week. 
Today, as expected Veer Energy and Infrastructure Ltd corrected to Rs.4.15, intra-day before closing at Rs.4.18. I had mentioned a couple of days back in this blog, to be cautious to on the scrip as it nearly touched my target of Rs.5 (rose to Rs.4.98 intra-day). I will tell you when to enter the counter once again. For the time being the scrip could. fall to Rs.3.70. I had today, asked all the Premium Members to book profits in the counter. 
Nifty today closed at 8,835.60 up 74.20 points. Nifty has appreciated around 780 points or ~9% from the low of 8065 within a few trading sessions. Bulls are in full command of the affairs, in Dalal Street. Moreover, the point that Nifty is in a “Resistance Free Zone”, gives further ammunition to the bulls. The traders are suggested to buy stocks from both the large and small / mid-cap spaces. 
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