Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Is there any need of Fundamentals for a stock to move up?

I think many of you at one point of time got bothered by this question, especially after getting regular drips of "Free Knowledge" from sundry TV-experts, who belch out in full glee in front of cameras. Even today, I heard a marketman in a business channel giving a buy Call on Ashok Leyland Ltd (Rs.56.55), which has a P/E of 60.16. Do you know what P/E of 60 means? It means it will take 60 long years of the company’s earnings, proceeding at the current rate, to add up to the original purchase price. How many of you will live so long? And hold your breadth the entire P/E of the auto sector  is 303.86 or more than three centuries.  But Chartists continue to play with the sentiments of gullible investors / traders in front of TV-Cameras, for reasons best known to all; while the regulator looks at the other way. 

Anyway, those who talk of Fundamentals in front of Television cameras and in Print Media, for a stock to move up, let me put before them a few scrip, which are trading at P/Es of not 100 or 200 or 500 but above 4000. Now, please look the following list and decide for yourself if really there any need of fundamentals for a scrip to move up: 
  • Ojas Asset Reconstruction Company (CMP: Rs.555, Book Value: 9.52), 
  • Gold Line International Finvest (CMP: Rs.495.10, Book Value: Rs.10.02), 
  • ICVL Chemicals (CMP: Rs.163.70. Book Value: Re.1), 
  • Kelvin Fincap Ltd (CMP: Rs.428.95, Book Value: Re.0.01), 
  • Omega Interactive Technologies Ltd (CMP: Rs.83.05, Book Value: Rs.14.63), 
  • Mapro Industries Ltd (CMP: Rs.403.90, Book Value: Rs.10.83),
  • Universal Credit and Securities (CMP: 294.80, Book Value: Rs.5.66)
  • CCL International Ltd (CMP: Rs.491.35, Book Value: Rs.3.75)
  • Intellivate Capital Ventures (CMP: Rs.52.60, Book Value: Rs.1.70)
  • Zodiac Ventures (CMP: Rs.88.75, Book Value: Rs.3.08) and so on......
How come these shares with such low book values and P/E ratios above 4000 (yes FOUR THOUSAND) is still being bought and sold in the bourses? Therefore, I pity those who talk of valuation and go on for hard "Number Crunching". From my more than 2-decades of experience, I have understood that a share would move up as long as people would recommend a buy or there is a group who would play with the counter. There is NO NEED of any Fundamentals for a scrip to move up or go down. Like any other asset class, stock market is purely a DEMAND--SUPPLY game, where often Fundamentals take a back seat, while the sentiments play a major game or else tell me why Anant Raj Industries Ltd (Rs.43.75) is trading near its 52-week low price? 

The father of all Fundamentals have died much before the Dotcom Boom and Bust in India. Hence, buy a scrip based more on sentimental play and less on fundamentals. The 24x7 (Television) Business Channels, have spoiled the whole of Indian markets and turned it into a PUNTERS GAME. 

As long as TV-analysts (especially the entire swarm of Chartists) continue to recommend BUY / SELL in front of TV Cameras, there would be such wild swings--because the poor trading community do not know what to do, when suddenly the ladder is taken from below. 

Moreover, mushrooming growth of "Chartists" who have a fancy name "Technical Analyst", is really a cause of alarm for the investor community. Some of these "Chartists" are the real nuisance, whom everyone should avoid. 

The point is that when "Price Sensitive Sentences" are thrown by the 'Chartist Community' in front 1.2 billion Indians; it is bound to create a ripple effect on the share price. Why is SEBI and other regulators not stopping stock specific recommendations in front of Television Cameras? 

Also, there is nothing called Valuation in share market!! Of course what we generally understand by valuation is "Public Market Valuation", which is calculated in most of the cases using Discounted Cash Flow method. But all these are of academic importance as there is no guarantee if the balance sheet presented by the company is manipulated or not. If there is ghost in medicines, then how to cure the diseases. 
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