Monday, July 14, 2014

Budget 2014-15: Simplicity, transparency and thrust on growth in economy
~~Deven Choksey, MD K.R. Choksey Sec.Financial Solutions
Revolutionary Reforms:
1. Income Tax exemption: 21000 crores of money left in hands of individuals. This will boost savings and consumption in economy. 
2. Banks are exempted from CRR & SLR deductions on their infrastructure funds portfolios. This is a big booster as it will have few advantages:
(a) It will result in 34-35 bps savings in the margins of banks which could result in additional funds for lending. On ? 10 L crore portfolio, additional funds available with banks would be 3500 crores.
(b) Availability of funds for infrastructure will help revive stalled infrastructure projects. It would thus reduce NPA stress in the books of banks.
(c) It could pave way for faster expansion in economy, which would have positive impact on lending to infrastructure asset class in road, power sectors. It also holds promise to let banks grow faster.
3. Portfolio income of FII is being classified as capital gains vs business income would not only give greater clarity to global investors bout also would result in attracting higher tax compliance and more inflow of funds in India, under the transparent norms. Fine print reading of many other measures should reveal further growth. 
They are: (i) Increased allocation & spending by government of 50,000 crore has all the potential to kick start the mega investment program in the country.
(ii) For faster implementation of projects, thrust has been given on IITs or infrastructure investment
trusts & giving a larger thrust on REITs or Real Estate Investment Trusts means attracting more funds in economy.
(iii) Roadmap for fiscal deficit is made clear with intent to bring it down to 3% in 3 years from 4.5% currently. To bring down fiscal deficit, credit of 65000 crores has been taken from divestment, additional collection of 7500 crores from indirect tax and relying on growth coming from infrastructure spending measures which would eventually swell the collection kitty of the government.
(iv) FDI in defence and insurance raised to 49% from 26% which will result in higher inflow of foreign investments in the country. Defence import bill will eventually come down which also means that current account deficit equation will be taken care of now and also in future.
(v) Host of social and agriculture sector reforms has the character of transforming lives of masses and in turn give them large economic power. It could result into transforming rural lives and in turn higher spending by them could spur industrial growth.
Given the reform orientation covering rural to urban economy we think this budget should be given full marks. Fine print will help us analyse further and we will bring company specific impact analysis to you. 
Stay invested in cyclical stocks as they hold larger promise under the budgetary proposal
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