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Thursday, June 12, 2014

Stupidity of Kotak Securities Ltd
While Kotak Securities Ltd downgrades ABG Shipyard Ltd, the share is already up and is now trading at Rs.291, much ahead of their target of Rs.278.
This is one of the Equity Broking companies, whose moronic research reports are known to all (like one of their best known peers: Motilal Oswal, etc). They once downgraded the shares of Reliance Industries, but RIL moved up and up and made new life time high. I start laughing when Uday Kotak starts speaking on TV Channels. But they have powerful advertising wing.

If you want to call in trade through them: They would start asking your mother's maiden name, PAN Card Details, Registered Mobile Number, Registerd E-mail Address, Demat Number and what not. By the time they generate an access code, the share price has already inched  up. Now, if you ask their representatives (most of them are incompetent), to find an odd share for you, they will mumble and fumble. And while they confirm  your trade, the share might get hit in the UC or have already risen. 

If you  forget your password and missed few chances to get it through e-mail, then it will go to your registed mailing address. Now if you are  not at home or by some means, no one stays in that address, then your waiting could be for eternity as no one knows when they would send the password for the 2nd time. 

Anyway, let me give you another example of their shabby brokerage report. In a recent research report they (Kotak Securities) have given a reduce rating on ABG Shipyard (the parent company of Western India Shipyard) with a target price of Rs.278 (earlier Rs.252). ABG Shipyard Ltd holds 59.21 % stake in Western India Shipyard Ltd (Rs.3.05).

In the research report they (Kotak Securities Ltd) write:
"We estimate the company to have stopped taking fresh orders and cancellations to have happened from the current order book of Rs.15,800 crore. The company has also posted poor numbers for FY14".

This is totally misplaced, as the management of ABG Shipyard, a Gujarat based company is totally optimistic of Narendra Modi government. Besides this shipping sector is expected to turnaround from July-August, 2014. Moreover, we have a dynamic shipping minister in the form of Nitin Gadkari, who is known for his innovative ideas. Also, why do they increase the target price of the share and then ask investors to reduce......Huh!!

The company further states: Poor shipbuilding market for the last three years has culminated into forced debt structuring of ~Rs 110 bn (total including bank guarantees) for ABG. The company is currently facing serious cash flow problems with deferral of deliveries, rising raw material cost, halted capex and invoking of bank guarantees (due to order cancellations).

The debt restructuring has come in many companies including Suzlon Energy Ltd (Rs.34.35), IVRCL Ltd (Rs.27), etc. Do these companies not have cash flow problems? But why are their shares rising up? 

It is because the business outlook has changed with NDA led by Narendra Modi, coming to power at the centre. It is  given condition that we invest in a company based on its future outlook not only of the sector but also  of overall situation. When any of these conditions improves, the market starts to perform. In such a scenario, we can only expect the shares of ABG Shipyard Ltd (Rs.291) and Western India Shipyard Ltd (Rs.3.05) to move up or do well. 

But these MORONS (Kotak Securities Ltd), will continue to fool people...!! I would suggest  you to stay away from these two brokerage houses, apart from ICICI Direct Securities Ltd, HDFC Securities Ltd, etc etc--the last two are amateur trading platforms. You should have an account in brokerage  houses, which gives professional services. 
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