Sunday, March 16, 2014

Satta Baazaar is hot and punters are betting on the ascent of NaMo raaj at New Delhi. Betting though illegal it’s on says the market grapevine. A leading pink paper says any bets for AK {arrey Arvind Kejriwal} as PM? A winning wager of Rs 1 lac shall win Rs 5 cr but for NaMo the same shall win Rs 1.42 lac. This is indicative of what the popular feeling is and which side the wind blows.

At Dalal Street the benchmark and its movements show the political shaping up. The Opinion polls on display at the leading television channels give NDA an edge and marginalise the Congress and AAP. The market sways between ups and downs but the powerful force of FII inflows and confidence of foreigners in BJP's right to the centre policies is at work.

The economy has bottomed out for sure as it is evident from the Q3 results and also from the visibility of the activity in the overall economy. The shrinkage in current account deficit augurs well for the economy. 

Consequent to that the strengthening of the Rupee is one solid factor favouring teji. FII's inflows remain the beacon on the path of tejibut a general consensus developing in favour of the Indian economy amongst all the Emerging markets is a great plus. The softening of crude prices and strengthening of dollars is going to further help in bringing down the current account deficit. It may momentarily be a dampener for the export business but even the current dollar rates are in no way a dampener for EOUs.

Some degree of consolidation is essential and the market will be positive in the medium term. A move higher without a healthy consolidation may tend to be risky. A dip below 6400 may not be ruled out but post such a correction it is likely to rule ahead. The benchmark heavyweights are in reaction mode and some of them like SUNMaruti, M&M Gail Acc etc have already moved up smartly from their interim lows.

It would be prudent to enter on corrections and if the market does not react then selling on unchecked rise is the order of the day.