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Friday, February 07, 2014
WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Most of the Gold Stocks closed flat today, including Shree Ganesh Jewellery House (I) Ltd (Rs.25.15), Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.62.75) and P C Jeweler Ltd (Rs.76.20). The Times of India, January, 29, 2014 writes: "High customs duty on gold has skewed the jewellery market in such a way that not only is the yellow metal being smuggled in huge quantities, a fact admitted by finance minister P Chidambaram, but there has been an unprecedented rise in legal import of gold through air passengers. December saw 2,500 kg of gold brought in this way. Sources said gold brought in legally by passengers flying into India never crossed 30-40 kg a month. Financial agencies said this reflected that there was huge premium in the market on gold due to high demand and short supply. Announcing impending easing of import curbs on gold, Chidambaram on Monday said around 1-3 tonnes (1000-3000 kg) of the yellow metal was being smuggled into the country every month based on seizures made by agencies. World Gold Council has, however, estimated the smuggling to be around 200 tonnes a year. However, he added, I know gold smuggling has increased...But the restrictions on gold import were absolutely necessary because it is these restrictions which have brought down gold import which in April and May had crossed 300 tonnes." Now, the obvious question is if Gold is flowing into India, through illegal routes, then how can the Finance Minister of India say, that gold imports have come down, except giving an eye wash, by showing the official figures? Moreover, recent figures regarding finished jewelry imports does unfold a reverse signal. So, this raises the valid question: Who is benefiting from the application of this draconian act? The matter I think is not so simple as it looks. I hope the Finance Minister of India, tells the real truth of imposing such predatory restrictions on gold imports. Besides, a near stoic silence of the opposition parties, including the BJP, also raises the mercury of suspicion, that amid all these media reports there could be something clandestine happening behind our backs.
Entegra Ltd (Rs.3.71) today moved up with good volumes. I think knowledgeable circles are accumulating the scrip on all declines, because it is from a reputed group and has large projects in hand. Even the Q3FY14 results of the company were satisfactory.
Glodyne Tech Ltd (Rs.7.87) today closed in the green. I think a group of deep pocket investors are slowly entering the counter. The company is taking all measures to come of huge debt burden, including selling some stake in its US subsidiary. The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.180.27 and the company has a market cap of only Rs.35.53 Cr. Glodyne Tech Ltd, according to Marcroaxis, has a total debt of around Rs.9.06 Billion (~Rs.906 Crores). It is to be remembered that this technology management services provider, viz, Glodyne Technoserve Ltd acquired DecisionOne Corporation, a US-based technology IMS company for a total consideration of approximately $104 million (~Rs.645 Cr) in July, 2010. In 2009, DecisionOne, used to employ 1,800 people and posted sales of $227 million, or about Rs.1,000 crore, which is almost near to the sales posted by Glodyne Tech in FY13. Now after 3-4 years its valuation should not be less than Rs.800 Cr, because DecisionOne has a long line of Fortune 100 clients spread across North America. So, we are left only with a debt of around Rs.100 Cr. Now in 2011, Glodyne Tech Ltd, announced the acquisition of Comat Technologies Pvt Ltd, an e-governance service provider. According to my close sources, Comat still has several projects in hand. Earlier it implemented PDS program which encompasses computerization of the food and civil supplies department covering over 10 million families across Karnataka. Comat has been in the business of delivering essential Government and Private services to rural India. Comat has been a pioneer in e-governance services and ran a network of thousands of centers in rural areas for door step delivery of Government services. In addition to delivery of services, Comat has worked with Government in re-engineering processes and using technology to bring efficiency and cost savings to the Government. A couple of years back Comat had been involved with piloting and subsequently scaling the UID initiative in several states. Moreover, in 2009, Glodyne Tech Ltd, acquired Broadllyne Technologies, a Mumbai-based application services provider in the education sector and merged Compulink Services with itself. Therefore, the company is NOT in that DISTRESS STATE, except that it has to pay, the debt suddenly, because of the fall in the share price. Therefore, the regulators (SEBI and other agencies) have to see that the auditors linked to the company are doing their duty as per Indian laws. It is because there are so much loop-holes in the Company Laws that it is easy for the promoters to siphon-off money from the company and buy shares in "Benami Accounts", only to be transferred later, as gifts. Anyway, I urge risk taking individuals to buy a few thousand shares of the company and keep holding, with a Strict Stop loss of Rs.6 (exit if it breaks and again enter if the share comes above it)--though the chance of breaking Rs.7, on a closing basis is very low. I do not think that the share should be trading at such a dismal price of Rs.7.87 and therefore an immediate spurt in the share price is expected.