India Gold Jewellery demand may remain flat Y/Y in 2014

This assumes that the current restrictions remain in place, which is not certain given upcoming elections and the politics surrounding altering the import restrictions. 

11 Jan 2014: LONDON (Commodity Online): Ordinarily a lower price environment for gold would mean increased gold demand in India; however, given import restrictions, it is expected about 600 tons of gold jewellery demand from India in 2014, which is flat year-on-year basis (y/y) compared with 2013, said London based Barclays in its recent weekly report.

This assumes that the current restrictions remain in place, which is not certain given upcoming elections and the politics surrounding altering the import restrictions. Economic Affairs Secretary, Arvind Mayaram, this week said “the government needs to keep the deficit low and should not tamper with the restrictions on gold shipments until at least the end of the fiscal year on 31 March” (Reuters), the bank pointed.

Meanwhile, India, historically the world’s largest gold consumer, has imposed higher duties on gold imports last year, among other restrictions, in an effort to rein in its current account deficit. Higher import duties have resulted in rise in gold smuggling.

According to data from the Department of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) in India, gold smuggling as a share of total seizures has more than doubled, from just 3% of total seizures in FY 2011-12, to 8% of total seizures in FY 2012-13, and this is only the smuggled gold that was seized, it added.

Courtesy: Commodity Online