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Monday, October 21, 2013

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Glodyne Technology Ltd and Geodesic Ltd hit their (consecutive) buyer freezes. The IT companies, would gain handsomely from the depreciation of the INR Vs USD. But I am more bullish on Glodyne Tech Ltd (Rs.13.20) and Allied Digital Services Ltd (Rs.20.60). Another stock which I am very bullish is Tulip Telecom Ltd (Rs.7.71), as the company is expected to get funds form the banks very soon, as a part of the restructuring deal. However, some of the employees say, that there is as such no financial crunch and its business is going fine, the company wants only to trim down old staff and replace them with new ones, with much lesser salaries (probably). Some of them probably seems to suggest that the liquidity problems in the company (Tulip Telecom Ltd) is artificial and it was basically aimed at getting concessions on the bank loans. Whatever, may be the case, the scene has suddenly turned bullish. In September, 2013, the Telecom stocks were rallying since the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) came out with its recommendations on spectrum pricing, usage charge, re-farming and trading. In the new environment, there is a chance for rise in tariff and average revenue per user for most of the telecom companies especially Bharti Airtel Ltd (Rs.352.55). 
Daily Chart of Manappuram Finance Ltd
My recommended Steel Authority of India Ltd at Rs.47.50 today touched Rs.63.20,  before cooling down at Rs.62.50. The scrip has reached both its short term targets of Rs.57 and Rs.62. It had been mentioned repeatedly in this blog that the scrip would save a large part of the coal bills if the INR starts to appreciate and this would give a forward kick to the share price---this is exactly what happened to the share.
It seems Manappuram Finance Ltd N(Rs.14.94) is now all set to move up, as the gold prices are expected to remain buoyant till the Hindu festival of "Deepawali". According to a report published in the Business Standard on 8th October, 2013: 
  • “Gold loan non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) are doing a socially useful function and that provides a strong rationale for careful regulation of the activities” is what the K U B Rao committee’s recent final report said on the subject. 
  • The report had a detailed analysis with the final recommendations, which not only clarified the negative air against gold loan NBFCs but cleared a roadmap on how to shape the sector for long-term growth. 
  • RBI’s latest move partially contrasts with the Rao committee’s recommendations. While the committee suggested growth measures for gold loan NBFCs, RBI has for the last 18 months taken several hard measures to cap their growth. In addition to lower LTV (loan to value), stringent norms of KYC (know your customer) and on cheque payment over Rs 100,000 restrict the growth of gold loan companies,” said Arun Kejriwal, founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. Rao had recommended cheque payment only of amounts above Rs.500,000.
It is therefore, expected that the current pragmatic governor of the RBI, Dr.Raghuram Rajan might reverse some of the moves taken earlier. If this happens then we would see more upgrades by the brokerage houses, of the scrip of Mananappuram Fianance Ltd. Now if we look at the scrip from the other angle, then we would find that its 50 DSMA > 100 DSMA and its 21 DEMA > 50 DEMA--this gives a positive bias on the charts also. Many of the analysts have suddenly turned bullish on the bank stocks and hence, NBFCs are also likely to do well in the short term. 
My recommended VIP Industries Ltd today touched Rs.60.10. It was mentioned that the scrip would gain if the rupee starts to appreciate. The scrip if you remember was recommended around Rs.47.50. 
My recommended Kavveri Telecom Ltd today touched Rs.29.90 before closing at Rs.28.05 with very little volume. The scrip is waiting for a trigger to move up. If you have not received the FY13 annual report kindly enquire with the authorities, for the same. I am expecting the scrip to touch Rs.50, once the Annual Report comes up in the media, as it will give out the broader outlines of the company's future growth potential and revenue streams. 
My recommended 3iInfotech Ltd today hit the buyer freeze in the mid afternoon trade. The company is expected to turnaround ether in Q3FY14 or Q4FY14. Prudent investors are probably taking position in the scrip, beforehand.