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Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Physical buying may help gold edge up
Indian imports, affected by a July 22 RBI notification stipulating that at least 20 per cent of the yellow metal brought into the country should be re-exported, are likely to resume anytime now.
HENNAI, SEPT 24:  Gold prices on the domestic spot and futures market are likely to look up a little on hopes that buying in China and India may increase. However, uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s move on the $85-billion-a-month stimulus package is proving to be a market dampener.

Indian imports, affected by a July 22 RBI notification stipulating that at least 20 per cent of the yellow metal brought into the country should be re-exported, are likely to resume anytime now. With kharif harvest beginning and festivals ahead, rural consumers could begin buying gold.

On the other hand, buying in China is seen up ahead of holidays starting October 1. Gold purchases in Shanghai exchange increased on Monday.

But holdings of gold in electronic form in exchange-traded funds dropped. On Monday, SPDR Trust, world’s largest gold exchange traded fund, reported that its holdings dropped below 910 tonnes to 909.59 tonnes.

Data on Germany business climate, US Consumer confidence, US chain store sales and housing index could have some influence on the precious metals market later in the day. In India, any rise in the rupee’s value against the dollar will make imports of gold, crude oil and vegetable oils cheaper.

Spot gold, gold futures

In early Asian trade, spot gold rose to $1,326.63 an ounce and gold futures maturing in December at $1,326.60.

In Mumbai bullion market, gold for jewellery (99.5% purity) dropped to Rs 29,790 and pure gold (99.9% purity) to Rs 29,935.

On MCX, gold October contracts could try to scale back to Rs 30,000.

Crude Oil

Crude oil is likely to rule flat as production is rising in Nigeria and Libya. Besides, speculation that the UN could pass a resolution that will ensure that there will be no military attack by the US on Syria. This will safeguard crude oil supplies from the West Asian region.

Brent crude contracts maturing in November ruled at $108.46 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery the same month at $103.42.

Oils and Oilseeds

The oils and oilseeds complex could gain on bargain hunting after prices slipped last week. Besides, demand for US bean and drop in inventories could hold up the counter.

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean contracts for delivery in November rose to $13.15 a bushel. On Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, crude palm oil contracts maturing in December opened higher at 2,324 ringgit or $724 a tonne.

Grains complex

Projections of higher imports by Chinese crop agency by at least one million tonnes are likely to drive wheat prices higher in the grains complex. This is despite higher bearish bets on the grain.

Rain in North America, threatening Canadian wheat, and dry weather in Australia and Argentina, which could affect the yield, are other bullish factors aiding wheat.

On the other hand, corn (industrial maize) is under pressure after exports from the US last week dropped to less than 18 million bushels against over 20 million bushels the previous week.

CBOT wheat contracts for delivery in December increased to $6.56 a bushel and corn for delivery the same month edged marginally up at $4.54 a bushel.

Natural rubber

Natural rubber prices on spot and futures markets could be under pressure as crude prices head lower. Fears of higher imports by the user industry are also dragging the counter.

On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, rubber to be delivered in February slipped to 277.3 yen or Rs 176 a kg.

(This article was published on September 24, 2013)

Courtesy: The Hindu Business Line