Sunday, September 22, 2013

MCX gold can consolidate sideways
[Editor: Gold has always been and will continue to remain as safe instrument of choice when people lack confidence in their governments. Lacking confidence doesn't only mean that they’re not certain that equities will perform, but it also may mean that they don’t trust their government, that it will operate in their best such a scenario Gold can be best alternative both as an investment and a trading option. The Chinese demand for Gold is constantly on the rise and it is anticipated that its gold demand may overtake India as the largest consumer in the near future. Physical demand for gold coins is still very strong globally.  Moreover, India’s traditional strong festive season and demands due to ensuring wedding season, followed by Diwali, may keep the Gold prices buoyant. However, in Comex, Gold has stiff resistances at $ 1375 and $ 1390, whereas supports can be found at $ 1350 & $1320]
In a surprise move, the US Federal Reserve retained its stimulus measures in its policy meet last week. Gold hit $1,363.7/ounce on Wednesday, up 4 per cent and closed the week at $1,325/ounce. The news that existing home sales in the US increased 1.7 per cent in August to an annual rate of 5.48 million units against the expected 5.25 million units dragged price. Silver ended the week at $22.2/ounce, down two per cent.


Investors’ appetite for gold didn’t return. The US SPDR gold trust’s holdings were reported at 910.19 tonnes on Friday, marginally lower from the previous week.

In the domestic market, gold reversed its downward track and recorded a gain despite rupee’s appreciation. MCX gold hit Rs 30,544/10 gram on Thursday and closed the week at Rs 29,277/10 gram, up one per cent. MCX silver ended at Rs 49,306/kilogram, up marginally. Rupee hit 61.64 against the US dollar on Thursday, but later lost steam and ended at 62.26.

MCX saw good trading interest in gold and silver futures contract. In gold, the average daily volume was 1.54 lakh contracts, up from the previous week’s average of 1.14 lakh contracts. In silver futures, the average volume was 1.59 lakh contracts, up 35 per cent over the previous week.


Analysts do not see a change in Fed’s stance of continuing on stimulus at least till November. In August, the jobless rate in the US was 7.3 per cent, much higher to Fed’s comfort level of 6.5 per cent. The US GDP growth estimates have also been revised downwards to 2-2.3 per cent from around 2.3-2.6 per cent earlier. But, gold investors can’t take much comfort.

The yellow metal will remain volatile till a decision is taken on raising the debt ceiling. Failure to arrive at a consensus, though, may give gold a leg up. Next week, the flash PMI Manufacturing numbers on Monday, consumer confidence numbers on Tuesday and new home sales numbers on Wednesday will also be watched. Thursday will see the quarterly GDP estimates and the crucial jobless claims numbers from the labour department. For domestic market gold traders, rupee’s move will be key to gains/loss in portfolio. In his first monetary policy review on Friday, the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan reduced the MSF (marginal standing facility) rate by 75 basis points reversing partially the liquidity tightening measure taken in July to save rupee.


As indicated in our previous column, MCX gold cut its first support around Rs 31,160/10 grams last week. However, it reversed at Rs 29,277 much before the second support at Rs 28,743 on positive cues from the Fed. Now, it looks like the metal may hover sideways for sometime and then drop to Rs 29,200. The next support on the downside would be Rs 28,800.

The metal needs to gain momentum and break Rs 31,400 to see a trend reversal. For this, a drop in rupee may be of help.

MCX silver too behaved in a manner that we had forecast and cut the support at Rs 49,239/kilogram to hit a low of Rs 48,488. In the coming week, the metal may weaken further to Rs 46,713 and Rs 43,587. If price manages to rise and cut Rs 52,863, it could hit Rs 55,566.

Courtesy: The Hindu Business Line